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Fantasy & Reality: The spin on Spiller

Senior Fantasy Writer
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It's been four weeks. Consensus first-round pick C.J. Spiller has not scored and has only one game with 100 yards. Meanwhile, Bills teammate Fred Jackson has two touchdowns and two 100-total-yard games. Jackson's numbers have propelled him to the Top 10 among Fantasy rushers. Spiller? You don't want to know ...

OK, fine, I'll tell you. He's tied for 31st with Ronnie Hillman and Andre Ellington in standard Fantasy play. He's produced one fewer point than BenJarvus Green-Ellis. There. Depressed yet?

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Spiller's weak statistical start makes him the front-runner for Fantasy bust of the year. But it's absolutely not because of a lack of opportunities nor is it because of an offensive philosophy shift in Buffalo. That's part of what I learned after watching every offensive snap from the Bills this season.

Eagles coach Chip Kelly made headlines because of his new-fangled hurry-up, run-leaning offense, but the Bills aren't too far off from doing the same thing. In fact, they've run more plays from scrimmage than any other team in the league save for the Texans, averaging 72.0 plays per game. And while Buffalo's run-pass ratio is basically even, the 136 plays involving Spiller and Jackson represent 47 percent of the total offense. Spiller even has more touches than Jackson, 75 to 61, and that's with Spiller missing all but three plays in the second half of Week 3 against the Jets and the tail end of Week 4 against the Ravens.

In the Bills first three games, Spiller served as the lead guy while Jackson was more of a change-of-pace back. The only time Jackson had dedicated roles was in the two-minute offense and in goal-to-go situations, though Spiller got in on a handful of goal-line plays. Otherwise, Jackson participated in three consecutive plays just four times. That makes what he's done even more incredible -- and what Spiller hasn't done even more concerning.

Last week there was a change. Jackson took over third-down work as well as two-minute drill snaps. Jackson also popped in for some other plays but again wasn't in consecutively for more than three or four at a time until Spiller hurt his ankle. Then he took on a bigger workload while Tashard Choice rounded out the run game, including work on three third downs.

Maybe last week's change was by design because Spiller was hurt. Or maybe it was an acknowledgement by the coaches to give Jackson, the running back with the hotter hand, more playing time. Though Spiller ended up with more touches in Week 4, it was Jackson who outproduced him yet again.

Spiller's running style hasn't changed. He remains a quick, shifty runner with very good speed. He hasn't been as elusive; many of the first defenders he runs into take him down. He's also run east-west a lot, dancing behind the line and trying to make a play by running sideline to sideline. It's also worth noting his O-line hasn't given him many clean creases, though there were also a number of plays where Spiller had room to bounce a play outside but instead cut inside for just a few yards. There have also been a number of plays where Spiller ran right into his own linemen and ultimately got wrapped up and hit hard by defenders. That hasn't helped.

Spiller seems to be looking for the home-run play, but he's not getting it with nearly as much frequency as expected. Spiller has carries good for 21 and 46 yards on the year (an additional 28-yard gainer was called back by a penalty). Those all came in the same game -- Week 2 against the Panthers. In the other three games combined Spiller has had nothing greater than three carries of 10 yards. Two came last week, including one when he came back after hurting his ankle.

In fact, it's that ankle injury that forced him out of action late last week and had him sidelined earlier in practice this week. That's on top of a quad injury that knocked him out of the game prior. Already this week Spiller said he'd play if he were at 80 to 85 percent but hasn't practiced as of Tuesday. Looking into a matchup against a Browns defense (Thursday night) that ranks third best against running backs in Fantasy, I'd say Spiller would be in for a tough time on limited work if he did play. The Browns happen to be the fifth straight opponent the Bills will play that ranks highly in Fantasy points allowed to running backs. Buffalo's other opponents were first, tied for sixth and two tied for 11th in Fantasy points allowed to rushers so far this season. Spiller hasn't had a gimme matchup yet and frankly will not have anything resembling one until Week 7 at Miami, and even that's not a cakewalk. Week 8 at New Orleans won't be easy either.

But remember, while Spiller has mostly stunk in tough matchups, Jackson has been great. So maybe the matchups aren't the problem. Maybe it's his health, or the workload (he has 75 carries through four games this year; he had 50 through four games last year), or his dancing behind the line and his impatient running, or all of the above. He's got the chops to take any carry at any time to the house, but the combination of his bad start, his injuries and Jackson's hot start could further dampen his playing time. The coaches have already taken notice. It might take a breakout game for those coaches to reconsider upping his workload, and he'll have to be healthy to do that.

If you own Spiller, I would not only sit him in Week 5 -- whether he's active or not -- but I'd entertain hearty trade offers for him. If I could land a capable running back and another decent starter for him, I'd take it. That's how concerned I am about him turning this season around and becoming the 1,600-yard back we all hoped he'd be.

Managing expectations

Two weeks ago I figured out that the passing game had become incredibly more productive in Fantasy compared to a year ago. But has that remained the case?

Just like before, I took the total Fantasy production in a standard scoring league from each of the top positions in Fantasy, then made tiers based on the first 12, second 12 and in some cases the third 12 of ranked players. From there I calculated the average Fantasy point production you could expect from each tier. Keep the number in mind -- it's what constitutes a fair performance from your starter at each respective position.

Tier Wks 1-2 Wks 1-4 Diff.
QB 1-12 28.4 24.0 -4.4
QB 13-24 17.8 16.8 -1.0
RB 1-12 14.4 13.9 -0.5
RB 13-24 8.7 8.9 0.2
RB 25-36 7.0 5.7 -1.3
WR 1-12 16.8 13.3 -3.5
WR 13-24 11.5 10.3 -1.2
WR 25-36 8.3 8.3 0.0
TE 1-12 12.3 10.5 -1.8
TE 13-24 5.8 5.0 -0.8

So what does this mean exactly? Through the last two weeks we've seen passing numbers take a dip after a hot start. Quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends are all scoring less than they did to open the season. Running backs are basically steady, not falling like their counterparts. In fact, the only spot where there was any gain was at No. 2 running back, and it's by a fraction of a Fantasy point. We'll keep tabs on these numbers and run them in this space every two weeks.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: Tony Gonzalez will get bottled up by the Patriots. Out of all the calls I made last week, this bad one hurt the most. For his entire career Bill Belichick schemed to take out Gonzalez every single time he played him -- and succeeded all but one time. Well, make it two times now after Belichick decided to contain Julio Jones in the early going instead. It worked out fine for Matt Ryan, who threw to Gonzalez enough to get him to a 7-90-1 stat line at halftime (Julio had 6 yards on two catches). Gonzalez was invisible in the third quarter before rallying along with Jones, Ryan and the rest of the Falcons in the fourth quarter when they were down 30-13.

Reality: The Saints shouldn't forget about Darren Sproles. Most players get slower as they get older. Sproles looks as fast -- if not faster -- this year compared to last year. When the Dolphins ganged up on Jimmy Graham, Sproles did a ton of damage. When the Dolphins peeled off even one defender from Graham to contain Sproles, Drew Brees hammered them over the top with Graham. Both players should be regulars in the offense every week.

Fantasy: It's time to give up on David Wilson. Believe it or not, I'm trying to trade for Wilson. I want him for this week's game against the Eagles. The 0-4 Giants are at home and desperate for a win. Eli Manning just saw brother Peyton carve up the Eagles with his receivers and surely could apply some of what big bro did to his game this week. But he also should hand off a lot -- the Eagles have allowed 179.0 total yards per game to running backs over the last three weeks. With Da'Rel Scott sent packing, the Giants have to come around on Wilson in this must win. Plus, Wilson hasn't looked so awful the past five quarters.

Reality: Jim Caldwell temporarily lost his mind. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when John Harbaugh approached Caldwell, his offensive coordinator, and asked him why he called nine run plays last week against Buffalo. They ran the ball nine times! Twice in the second half! This game was never a blowout where the Ravens had to throw, they just decided to fling it again and again against the Bills. No wonder why Joe Flacco threw five picks (not all were his fault). Ray Rice fans, I'd expect a change in that direction this week against the Dolphins.

Fantasy: Giovani Bernard will have to wait until midseason to take the running back job away from BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Gio disappointed statistically on Sunday but still played on 74 pct. of snaps to The Law Firm's 26 pct. He had 16 touches too, all thanks in part to playing from behind. Bernard has the primary workload in his hands and should rebound nicely against a Patriots defense missing defensive line game changer Vince Wilfork.

Reality: Chris Johnson should spend less time sounding off on his Fantasy owners and spend more time looking to improve his game. After racking up 14 yards on his first two carries against the Jets, Johnson had one carry for 4 yards, another for three and the rest went for 2 yards or less, including negative yardage. There were even some plays where it looked like Johnson freelanced while the O-line followed out the orders given by the coaches. Johnson ran for minus-6 yards on his first two carries with Ryan Fitzpatrick in part because of one of those runs. I'll admit it's not all Johnson's fault -- you can tell he's trying this year and you can see it in the number of 10-plus yard runs he has. His line is not always great and in the case of last week he faced a very tough run defense. And he'll continue to for the next three weeks when the Titans play the Chiefs, at the Seahawks and vs. the Rams before taking a week off. Maybe he should spend more time in the film room and less time on Twitter.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Vikings' Bridgewater 'extremely comfortable' with leadership role
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Vikings second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is embracing his role as leader of the offense, the Star Tribune reports.

"I’m a young guy still on the team, but guys are pushing me forward to say something in the huddle, or break the team down, or break the offense down," Bridgewater said. "That just gives you that confidence in yourself, confidence in your leadership and I’ve been extremely comfortable doing that so far."

Coach Mike Zimmer is satsfied with the work Bridgewater has done during the offseason.

"It’s hard to never not be pleased with Teddy because he’s such a hard worker," Zimmer said. "We wanted him to get bigger and stronger; he looks a little bit bigger to me. He’s always worked real hard. The leadership things are starting to come better. I think he’s been doing a good job the two days we’ve been out here against the defense."

Bridgewater made 12 starts in his rookie season and played 13 games in all, racking up 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 64.4 percent of his passes.


Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders hoping to reach 1,000 yards
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders believes the new offensive scheme in Denver will effect his numbers, accoridng to the team's website.

Sanders is working with new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison and coach Gary Kubiak to install the team's new offense and noted it's very different from last year's spread attack.

"You talk about going from a no-huddle offense to an offense that's huddling up, to an offense that is predicated off running a football and then throwing it. It's different," Sanders said. 

"It's a totally different set up, but I tell you what, the more and more I'm in it," said Sanders. "Because we can get the run game going and just use my vertical speed on cross routes and all these different combinations of routes is based off the play action, then I think the offense will be successful with Peyton Manning at the helm."

Sanders, who totaled 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014, doesn't think he'll accomplish the same numbers.

"Of course obviously it's not going to be one of those offenses, well I'm praying that it is, but obviously it's not going to be one of those offenses where you catch it and you're going to have two receivers catching over 100 passes," said Sanders. "Hopefully, my goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards to just help this team win ball games."


Cowboys rookie La'el Collins taking reps at RT in OTAs
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Cowboys rookie offensive lineman La'el Collins started offseason team activities on Wednesday taking reps at right tackle, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Collins, who was signed as an undrafted free agent, could also see time at left guard. But the rookie is taking his first reps with the team at right tackle with Darrion Weems while Doug Free recovers from ankle surgery.

"We think he has the physical ability to play a couple of different spots," coach Jason Garrett said. "He was a tackle for most of his career in college but did play guard. We see him as a guy who can maybe do both of those things as he goes.

"The big thing for him is to try to get him acclimated as quickly as we can. So right now he's going to play right tackle for us. He and Darrion Weems are competing at that spot in Doug Free's absence and we'll just see how that unfolds." 


Vikings' Adrian Peterson on absence from OTAs: 'It's business'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson said in a statement on Wednesday that his absence from OTAs has "nothing to do with wanting to be traded," ESPN reports.

"The reason I'm not attending OTAs has nothing to do with wanting to be traded. It's about securing my future with the Vikings. It's business, not personal and I understand that firsthand. Go Vikings."

It was reported earlier Wednesday that coach Mike Zimmer said that Peterson could "either play for us or not play." The running back has expressed frustration with team management for not showing him support during his legal case for child abuse.


Report: Falcons' Dezmen Southward undergoes knee surgery
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Falcons defensive backs Dezmen Southward underwent a minor-knee operation Wednesday, reports the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Southward did not attend Tuesday's OTA and it is not known how long he'll be sidelined.


Julius Thomas trying to fit into Jaguars' offense
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas said after Wednesday's organized team activity that he intends to make it work with quarterback Blake Bortles, reports The Florida Times-Union.

"There is no 'Here's me coming in, and Blake's going to get on my page.' I'm going to be on Blake's page," Thomas said. "Whatever he expects, that's what I am going to do. He's the quarterback. He's the one in control of that huddle, and I like catching passes so I will make sure I do exactly what he wants."

With Thomas entering his first season with the Jaguars, he said it will take time to develop a rapport with Bortles.

"I think that getting good chemistry with a quarterback probably takes a couple of thousand passes," Thomas said.


Cowboys RB Darren McFadden not concerned with playing time
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) With the Cowboys just beginning their organized team activities this week, running back Darren McFadden said he just wants to concentrate on becoming familiar with the team, reports the team's official website.

"For me, I'm just going out there grinding," he said. "However the coaches put me out there – whether it's first team or second team. When it comes time for them to make a decision, it's totally up to them. I'm just trying to get that playbook down and take advantage of this opportunity."

McFadden is competing with Joseph Randle to be the first-team running back, and he said he just wants to work hard and not worry about how many repetitions he's receiving with the first team.

"Once you've been in a place so long like Oakland, you can get set in your ways," McFadden said Wednesday, after his second OTA practice with the Cowboys. "Coming out here and being around guys that work so hard, it just brings out the best in you. It's something I look forward to."


Chiefs' Mike Catapano on his health: I feel better than ever
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) After missing the entire 2014 season with a gastrointestinal virus, Chiefs defensive end Mike Catapano was able to participate in the team's OTA on Wednesday, reports The Kansas City Star.

"Every time I step on the field now it's with purpose and with extra vigor that I never really had," Catapano said. "It feels great. I feel better than ever."

Catapano played in 15 games during his rookie season in 2013 and he totaled four tackles and one sack. He said he's ready to surpass that in 2015.

"I'm ready to show that I offer a lot to this team. I'm ready to step up in big situations and starting situations," Catapano said. "I just want to keep getting better every day… and play to the best of my abilities."


Broncos' Manning, Sanders keeping up with Thomas during holdout
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is holding out of offseason workouts while he continues to negotiate a long-term deal with the team, but teammates Emmanuel Sanders and Peyton Manning have been keeping up with the star receiver, the Denver Post reports.

"One thing a lot of people don’t realize is when you’re playing on a one-year deal, there’s a lot of things going through your head," Sanders said. "As much as you guys want to say, ‘Don’t think about it,' of course it’s going to cross your mind because you’re talking about a lot of money at stake. When you’re playing these one-year deals, it’s a lot of stress on you. No matter how much you don’t want it to be, it’s going to happen. We’re all human."

Manning would like to have Thomas in workouts but understands the business aspects of his decision.

"I keep up with Demaryius. He’s my buddy," Manning said. "They got that business side of it to work out, but he’s been a great teammate to me, been a great friend to me since I’ve been here in Denver, so I keep up with him. Obviously want him to get back here as soon as possible, but we want what’s best for him, and he certainly deserves what’s best for him."

Thomas has started 16 games for three straight season, topping 90 receptions, 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns in each.


Raiders sign Horace Miller, Milton Williams
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/27/2015) The Raiders have signed linebacker Horace Miller and wide receiver Milton Williams, the team announced on Wednesday.

Miller was waived by the Panthers earlier this offseason after spending one week on the active roster but seeing no playing time. Williams originally signed with the Raiders earlier this month before being waived a few days later.


 
 
 
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