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Fantasy & Reality: The spin on Spiller

Senior Fantasy Writer
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It's been four weeks. Consensus first-round pick C.J. Spiller has not scored and has only one game with 100 yards. Meanwhile, Bills teammate Fred Jackson has two touchdowns and two 100-total-yard games. Jackson's numbers have propelled him to the Top 10 among Fantasy rushers. Spiller? You don't want to know ...

OK, fine, I'll tell you. He's tied for 31st with Ronnie Hillman and Andre Ellington in standard Fantasy play. He's produced one fewer point than BenJarvus Green-Ellis. There. Depressed yet?

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Spiller's weak statistical start makes him the front-runner for Fantasy bust of the year. But it's absolutely not because of a lack of opportunities nor is it because of an offensive philosophy shift in Buffalo. That's part of what I learned after watching every offensive snap from the Bills this season.

Eagles coach Chip Kelly made headlines because of his new-fangled hurry-up, run-leaning offense, but the Bills aren't too far off from doing the same thing. In fact, they've run more plays from scrimmage than any other team in the league save for the Texans, averaging 72.0 plays per game. And while Buffalo's run-pass ratio is basically even, the 136 plays involving Spiller and Jackson represent 47 percent of the total offense. Spiller even has more touches than Jackson, 75 to 61, and that's with Spiller missing all but three plays in the second half of Week 3 against the Jets and the tail end of Week 4 against the Ravens.

In the Bills first three games, Spiller served as the lead guy while Jackson was more of a change-of-pace back. The only time Jackson had dedicated roles was in the two-minute offense and in goal-to-go situations, though Spiller got in on a handful of goal-line plays. Otherwise, Jackson participated in three consecutive plays just four times. That makes what he's done even more incredible -- and what Spiller hasn't done even more concerning.

Last week there was a change. Jackson took over third-down work as well as two-minute drill snaps. Jackson also popped in for some other plays but again wasn't in consecutively for more than three or four at a time until Spiller hurt his ankle. Then he took on a bigger workload while Tashard Choice rounded out the run game, including work on three third downs.

Maybe last week's change was by design because Spiller was hurt. Or maybe it was an acknowledgement by the coaches to give Jackson, the running back with the hotter hand, more playing time. Though Spiller ended up with more touches in Week 4, it was Jackson who outproduced him yet again.

Spiller's running style hasn't changed. He remains a quick, shifty runner with very good speed. He hasn't been as elusive; many of the first defenders he runs into take him down. He's also run east-west a lot, dancing behind the line and trying to make a play by running sideline to sideline. It's also worth noting his O-line hasn't given him many clean creases, though there were also a number of plays where Spiller had room to bounce a play outside but instead cut inside for just a few yards. There have also been a number of plays where Spiller ran right into his own linemen and ultimately got wrapped up and hit hard by defenders. That hasn't helped.

Spiller seems to be looking for the home-run play, but he's not getting it with nearly as much frequency as expected. Spiller has carries good for 21 and 46 yards on the year (an additional 28-yard gainer was called back by a penalty). Those all came in the same game -- Week 2 against the Panthers. In the other three games combined Spiller has had nothing greater than three carries of 10 yards. Two came last week, including one when he came back after hurting his ankle.

In fact, it's that ankle injury that forced him out of action late last week and had him sidelined earlier in practice this week. That's on top of a quad injury that knocked him out of the game prior. Already this week Spiller said he'd play if he were at 80 to 85 percent but hasn't practiced as of Tuesday. Looking into a matchup against a Browns defense (Thursday night) that ranks third best against running backs in Fantasy, I'd say Spiller would be in for a tough time on limited work if he did play. The Browns happen to be the fifth straight opponent the Bills will play that ranks highly in Fantasy points allowed to running backs. Buffalo's other opponents were first, tied for sixth and two tied for 11th in Fantasy points allowed to rushers so far this season. Spiller hasn't had a gimme matchup yet and frankly will not have anything resembling one until Week 7 at Miami, and even that's not a cakewalk. Week 8 at New Orleans won't be easy either.

But remember, while Spiller has mostly stunk in tough matchups, Jackson has been great. So maybe the matchups aren't the problem. Maybe it's his health, or the workload (he has 75 carries through four games this year; he had 50 through four games last year), or his dancing behind the line and his impatient running, or all of the above. He's got the chops to take any carry at any time to the house, but the combination of his bad start, his injuries and Jackson's hot start could further dampen his playing time. The coaches have already taken notice. It might take a breakout game for those coaches to reconsider upping his workload, and he'll have to be healthy to do that.

If you own Spiller, I would not only sit him in Week 5 -- whether he's active or not -- but I'd entertain hearty trade offers for him. If I could land a capable running back and another decent starter for him, I'd take it. That's how concerned I am about him turning this season around and becoming the 1,600-yard back we all hoped he'd be.

Managing expectations

Two weeks ago I figured out that the passing game had become incredibly more productive in Fantasy compared to a year ago. But has that remained the case?

Just like before, I took the total Fantasy production in a standard scoring league from each of the top positions in Fantasy, then made tiers based on the first 12, second 12 and in some cases the third 12 of ranked players. From there I calculated the average Fantasy point production you could expect from each tier. Keep the number in mind -- it's what constitutes a fair performance from your starter at each respective position.

Tier Wks 1-2 Wks 1-4 Diff.
QB 1-12 28.4 24.0 -4.4
QB 13-24 17.8 16.8 -1.0
RB 1-12 14.4 13.9 -0.5
RB 13-24 8.7 8.9 0.2
RB 25-36 7.0 5.7 -1.3
WR 1-12 16.8 13.3 -3.5
WR 13-24 11.5 10.3 -1.2
WR 25-36 8.3 8.3 0.0
TE 1-12 12.3 10.5 -1.8
TE 13-24 5.8 5.0 -0.8

So what does this mean exactly? Through the last two weeks we've seen passing numbers take a dip after a hot start. Quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends are all scoring less than they did to open the season. Running backs are basically steady, not falling like their counterparts. In fact, the only spot where there was any gain was at No. 2 running back, and it's by a fraction of a Fantasy point. We'll keep tabs on these numbers and run them in this space every two weeks.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: Tony Gonzalez will get bottled up by the Patriots. Out of all the calls I made last week, this bad one hurt the most. For his entire career Bill Belichick schemed to take out Gonzalez every single time he played him -- and succeeded all but one time. Well, make it two times now after Belichick decided to contain Julio Jones in the early going instead. It worked out fine for Matt Ryan, who threw to Gonzalez enough to get him to a 7-90-1 stat line at halftime (Julio had 6 yards on two catches). Gonzalez was invisible in the third quarter before rallying along with Jones, Ryan and the rest of the Falcons in the fourth quarter when they were down 30-13.

Reality: The Saints shouldn't forget about Darren Sproles. Most players get slower as they get older. Sproles looks as fast -- if not faster -- this year compared to last year. When the Dolphins ganged up on Jimmy Graham, Sproles did a ton of damage. When the Dolphins peeled off even one defender from Graham to contain Sproles, Drew Brees hammered them over the top with Graham. Both players should be regulars in the offense every week.

Fantasy: It's time to give up on David Wilson. Believe it or not, I'm trying to trade for Wilson. I want him for this week's game against the Eagles. The 0-4 Giants are at home and desperate for a win. Eli Manning just saw brother Peyton carve up the Eagles with his receivers and surely could apply some of what big bro did to his game this week. But he also should hand off a lot -- the Eagles have allowed 179.0 total yards per game to running backs over the last three weeks. With Da'Rel Scott sent packing, the Giants have to come around on Wilson in this must win. Plus, Wilson hasn't looked so awful the past five quarters.

Reality: Jim Caldwell temporarily lost his mind. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when John Harbaugh approached Caldwell, his offensive coordinator, and asked him why he called nine run plays last week against Buffalo. They ran the ball nine times! Twice in the second half! This game was never a blowout where the Ravens had to throw, they just decided to fling it again and again against the Bills. No wonder why Joe Flacco threw five picks (not all were his fault). Ray Rice fans, I'd expect a change in that direction this week against the Dolphins.

Fantasy: Giovani Bernard will have to wait until midseason to take the running back job away from BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Gio disappointed statistically on Sunday but still played on 74 pct. of snaps to The Law Firm's 26 pct. He had 16 touches too, all thanks in part to playing from behind. Bernard has the primary workload in his hands and should rebound nicely against a Patriots defense missing defensive line game changer Vince Wilfork.

Reality: Chris Johnson should spend less time sounding off on his Fantasy owners and spend more time looking to improve his game. After racking up 14 yards on his first two carries against the Jets, Johnson had one carry for 4 yards, another for three and the rest went for 2 yards or less, including negative yardage. There were even some plays where it looked like Johnson freelanced while the O-line followed out the orders given by the coaches. Johnson ran for minus-6 yards on his first two carries with Ryan Fitzpatrick in part because of one of those runs. I'll admit it's not all Johnson's fault -- you can tell he's trying this year and you can see it in the number of 10-plus yard runs he has. His line is not always great and in the case of last week he faced a very tough run defense. And he'll continue to for the next three weeks when the Titans play the Chiefs, at the Seahawks and vs. the Rams before taking a week off. Maybe he should spend more time in the film room and less time on Twitter.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Vikings CB Terence Newman has familiarity with Mike Zimmer
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(8:06 pm ET) Vikings cornerback Terence Newman won't have a steep learning curve now that he's with his new team. 

Newman played under Vikings coach Mike Zimmer when he was the defensive coordinator with the Cowboys. Drafted in 2003, Newman learned Zimmer's defense from his rookie season through 2006, before Zimmer left to take the same position with the Falcons. 

“I just know exactly what to expect from him as a coach, as well as everybody else in this locker room,” Newman told the Vikings' website. “You play your best football under him.”

In his career, Newman has recorded 741 tackles and 37 interceptions. Entering his 13th NFL year, Newman has already impressed his teammates with voluntary workouts underway. 

“I met with him and he seemed like a great guy,” cornerback Xavier Rhodes said. “Like he’s going to come in and teach us what we need to know about the technique of the game and about the defense because he’s been in it before, so he’s going to help us out a lot. He’s a big asset to this team and the defense.”


Chiefs pick up option on NT Dontari Poe
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5:48 pm ET) The Chiefs have exercised their fifth-year option on two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Dontari Poe, per NFL.com. He is set in Kansas City through 2016, when he will earn $6.146 million.

The 350-pound Poe has earned the money. He racked up six sacks and contributed to 46 tackles in 2014.


Lions GM Mayhew OK with James Ihedigbo skipping workouts
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5:39 pm ET) Safety James Ihedigbo was the lone absence from voluntary workouts this week for the Lions. But general manager Martin Mayhew understands. After all, Ihedigbo's agent has stated that he would not work without a new contract.

"I look forward to talking with James," Mayhew told ESPN. "I understand what he's going through. I've been through that myself as a player, when I felt that a time in my career that I was underpaid and I had to deal with that.

"So I have empathy for him. I understand what he's going through and I look forward to sitting down and talking with him. I have great respect for him as a player, as a man. I've gotten to know him a little bit away from football and I understand how he feels."

Mayhew declined to discuss whether the Liins will rework Ihedigbo's contract.

The 31-year-old Ihedigbo contributed 71 tackles and two sacks with a career-high four interceptions in 2014 despite missing three games at the start of the year with a nerve injury. He earned Pro Bowl alternate status.


Eagles withdraw qualifying offer to RB Chris Polk
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:24 pm ET) Running back Chris Polk is now a free agent. 

According to the NFL transaction wire, the Eagles rescinded their $1.6 million tender they offered this past March. The Eagles placed the tender on Polk, previously a restricted free agent, before signing both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews in free agency. 

With Darren Sproles on the roster, it didn't make much sense for Polk to stay with the Eagles. 

In 2014, Polk ran for 172 yards and four touchdowns. 


RB Bobby Rainey signs qualifying offer with Buccaneers
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5:04 pm ET) The Buccaneers have announced that running back Bobby Rainey has signed a one-year qualifying offer the team extended to him before the free agency period. He was a restricted free agent and was given an opportunity to negotiate with other teams.

Rainey will compete for playing time with Tampa Bay. He rushed for 406 yards in 2014, but faded at the end of the season with just two carries in the last six games combined.


Jaguars planning to play 2015 season without Justin Blackmon
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4:50 pm ET) As far as the Jaguars are concerned, Justin Blackmon will not be lining up at receiver for them this season. 

At least that's the approach Jacksonville is taking. Blackmon has been indefinitely suspended since Nov. 1 2013 for three violations of the substance-abuse policy under the old CBA.

"Our process hasn't changed," Caldwell said, via ESPN.com. "[We] plan to go without him, but if he emerges, he emerges, and he's going to go in with those top guys and compete with those other guys. Hopefully we're able to get some news, but if not we weren't planning on [having Blackmon]. We're just going to go [without him]."

Before he can re-join the Jaguars, he'll need to file an application for reinstatement, with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell making a decision within a 60-day window. The application letter would include details of the treatment he's received. 

Since being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Blackmon has only played in 20 games. He has 1,280 yards and six touchdowns in his career. 


Cowboys' Greg Hardy called 'woman beater' by teammate
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4:19 pm ET) Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy got into an altercation with teammate Davon Coleman during a voluntary offseason workout, according to a report from Yahoo! Sports

Hardy reportedly questioned Coleman's work ethic during a conditioning drill, which led Coleman to call Hardy a "woman beater."

Hardy was accused of domestic abuse and was found guilty by a North Carolina judge. On the subsequent appeal, prosecutors dropped charges against Hardy and the case was never presented in front of a jury. 

Hardy has been suspended by the NFL for 10 games due to what transpired in that case. According to FOX Sports, the confrontation between Hardy and Coleman remained verbal


Lions and Rob Sims' representation haven't spoken in 3 weeks
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3:31 pm ET) The Lions need a left guard and Rob Sims would be a solid option if the two sides can strike a deal for the veteran to return. 

However, talks have stalled between the Lions' front office and Sims' representation. Speaking to reporters on Friday, Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said it's been nearly a month since he's spoken to Sims' camp. 

"We've had some discussion with Rob," Mayhew said, via MLive.com. "I spoke to his agent probably about three weeks ago and we had an offer out to him. That's kind of where we are right now. We'll have to kind of wait and see what happens."

The Lions could still opt to draft a lineman early to fill the position, too. 

Sims, who entered the NFL in 2006, has been with the Lions for the past five seasons. 


Andre Ellington OK with Cardinals drafting another running back
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3:20 pm ET) If the Cardinals decide to draft a running back in one of the higher rounds, running back Andre Ellington would be OK with it. 

Ellington was a three-down back for Arizona last year that got plenty of touches in the running and passing games. But if the Cardinals use a high pick on a running back, that could cut into Ellington's touches. 

That's something that wouldn't bother Ellington. 

“It’s whatever will better our team,” Ellington told the team's website. “That’s most important. No one is going to hate any decisions. I’m sure those guys will make the best decisions to help the team. We’ll accept any guy who comes in.”

Another quality runner could help Ellington, who dealt with numerous injuries a year ago, in the long run. His season ended last December after undergoing hernia surgery. 


Dolphins haven't decided if they'll extend Ryan Tannehill's contract
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(2:32 pm ET) Dolphins executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum said the club has yet to decide if it will extend quarterback Ryan Tannehill, according to the Palm Beach Post

The Dolphins could decide to pick up Tannehill's fifth-year option and wait on an extension. The deadline for doing so is May 3. Doing that would cost the Dolphins $15 million for the 2016 season. 

Previously, NFL.com reported that the Dolphins were hopeful that they could strike a long-term deal with Tannehill before Week 1 of the 2015 season. 

In 2014, Tannehill threw for 4,045 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.


 
 
 
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