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Reality Check: Surviving without Julio Jones

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Some people tried to deny it, noting the incredible catch he made on his team's final drive.

Others made no bones about what happened to Julio Jones Monday, when the screw in his surgically repaired foot broke, ending his season.

They're called CBSSports.com users, and they're the best. Where else but Jones' player page could you find a full gamut of commentary ranging from the reactive ...

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Wow! -- DntGetMurkd

... to the reflective ...

Crushing blow. -- NY Swag

... to the tabloidian ...

Welcome to dumpsville. -- IDI

... to the instructive ...

Run to the wire and grab Kenny Britt! -- GOGREEN2010

... to the sublime.

Why Britt? -- CTRL-FRK

For real. Somebody needs to tell GOGREEN2010 that he already went green and it's 2013. He seems to be living in the past.

But at least his heart is in the right place. Obviously, part of the discussion on Jones is how to replace him, but an injury of this severity to a player of his prominence has so many tangents, both practical and philosophical, that sticking to one shortchanges the discussion. And what better way to tackle them all than to turn it over to the floor?

What follows is a conversation artificially created by pulling user comments from the mysterious depths of the Internet, cleaning them up for mass consumption and interspersing them with my own thoughts and observations. It's less science-fictiony than it sounds.

It's also more valuable than it sounds. The thing about tangents is they take you where never thought you'd go. I promise even the non-Jones owners will come away with something useful.

Just once I'd like to go through a Fantasy Football season without my best player getting injured. [Feeble attempt at euphemism deleted.] -- VeryUndude

Some euphemisms are so clever in their construction or effortless in their usage that they take on a life of their own, actually enriching a language that never knew what it was missing. Others are just thinly veiled efforts to get by the censors. How very undudely of you, VeryUndude.

But at the same time, how very fitting of the circumstances. Most Jones owners would have considered him their best player at the time of his injury. If nothing else, he had reliability going for him, leading the league with 41 receptions while putting up more than 75 yards every week. Losing a player of that caliber, no matter how the rest of the season unfolds, would lead anyone to wonder, "What if?"

Before moving on to "why me," though, keep in mind most everyone in your league has a "what if." What about the owner who lost Steven Jackson -- a player he drafted even before Jones, most likely -- in Week 2? What about the owner who opted for Matt Ryan (we'll get to him in a minute) over Peyton Manning, not wanting to hitch his wagon to a 37-year-old only a couple years removed from neck surgery? What about the owner who's having to adjust his expectations for C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew or, to a lesser extent, Doug Martin?

You could argue their misfortunes are the result of bad decisions and that they're getting exactly what they deserve, but it's not like they went rogue with those picks. They followed the consensus. OK, maybe not with Ryan over Manning, but even that wasn't so unreasonable, was it?

As a Jones owner, you feel like you're getting a raw deal because you were completely convinced you made the right call before having the rug pulled out from under you, but you could argue you're also getting exactly what you deserve. Jones hasn't been a model of health during his time with the Falcons and wasn't in college either, which explains why he had a screw in his foot in the first place. Some might argue an injury of this severity was a long time coming. Not saying I am, but it's a valid point.

I'm also not trying to kick you while you're down. Just offering some perspective. Things go wrong in Fantasy Football. It's a vicious, fiercely team-oriented game with too many variables to predict. As you've learned from experience, you're unlikely to avoid the misfortune, so even though it's a bummer when it happens, you have to be prepared for it.

That's why you don't get complacent. You keep playing the waiver wire, religiously putting in your claims Tuesday night, because in the end, an Alshon Jeffery is just as likely to win you the league as a Julio Jones.

Out for the year? I hate Fantasy Football. Everyone is hurt. -- sargent2424

It's kind of crazy how much we all invest in something so volatile. I'm not just talking money, but time, emotion, brain power, etc. Think of all we could accomplish if we applied those to something a little more substantive.

But we all know that's not going to happen. Fantasy Football may be the most unpredictable of the Fantasy games, but it's so widespread and accessible that the love-hate relationship is only going to continue. So maybe instead of obsessing over its unpredictability, you take advantage of it.

Counting on everyone to get hurt is exactly why Fantasy owners began handcuffing their running back however many years ago. Granted, not all handcuffs are worth it, but the ones with a strong skill set and natural fit in the offense hardly miss a beat when the starter goes down. Just look at how Joique Bell owners fared with Reggie Bush sidelined in Week 3. It's proven to be an effective strategy.

Of course, it's not so applicable to Jones owners. Fantasy-caliber wide receivers are a little more prevalent than running backs, and it's not like anyone expects Jones numbers from Harry Douglas. Still, it's worth mentioning for the Steven Jackson owner who might be on the fence about dropping Jacquizz Rodgers. Or the Eddie Lacy owner who just saw James Starks go back on waivers. Or the Ray Rice owner who thinks he's gotten all he can from Bernard Pierce. Or the Jamaal Charles owner who feels like he's wasting a roster spot on Knile Davis. Shoot, I'm still stashing Montee Ball. Not like Knowshon Moreno is known for staying healthy.

And speaking of Moreno, maybe he's the type of player you target in the middle rounds next year over dime-a-dozen types like Steve Johnson and Miles Austin. If everything's going to blow up anyway, you might as well get a head start on the players you can actually get excited about starting. Moreno, Jordan Cameron, Josh Gordon -- they all had plausible opportunities for big-time production even if they weren't quite as "safe" as Johnson or Austin.

Everyone is freaking out about Matt Ryan losing Julio Jones, and I know it's serious. But he basically hasn't had Roddy White all season. If White can come back healthy after the bye, it shouldn't be a huge dent to the offense. -- Zr0Tolerance (via Matt Ryan's player page)

Ah, yes ... White. If he can come back healthy, I'm right there with you. He was a stud before anyone had even heard of Jones and still has Tony Gonzalez to keep defenses honest. Though he's been limited by an ankle sprain this season, a week off might be exactly what he needs to get to feeling himself again.

But of course, it's not just the ankle now. White strained his hamstring against the Jets in Week 5, which might put him out of the lineup altogether.

More often than not, that second guy makes all the difference. Gonzalez will have defenders draped all over him now, forcing Ryan to broaden his horizons. I mentioned Harry Douglas, and he's sure to get open looks from time to time, but receivers like Jones and White never needed open looks. Ryan could throw the ball to them in coverage and trust them to come down with it. If he takes those chances with Douglas, he's likely to get picked.

Ultimately, I think the yards will be there for Ryan. He's a good player in his own right, and the Falcons offense is designed to throw the ball. But I could see his interceptions rising as he compensates for the talent around him, and I could see the Falcons opting for more running plays inside the 10-yard line.

Well, Julio ... like the Falcons, my team is 1-4 and doesn't deserve you. -- Mugiwaraboi

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Wait, wait ... hold up a minute. Given what the Falcons gave up to draft Jones, couldn't you argue he's the player they most deserve? I'm just saying ...

He was the only player on my team pulling his weight. (Looking at you A.J. Green, Doug Martin, David Wilson and Vincent Jackson.) Good luck with your recovery, pal. -- Mugiwaraboi (continued)

One thing that gets lost in the uproar over Jones' injury: The numbers he was putting up weren't entirely sustainable.

That's not to say he wouldn't have continued to be one of the top wide receivers in Fantasy, but he was on pace for 131.2 catches and 1,856 yards. You don't see numbers like that every year.

Because his season ended after only five games, he never had a chance for a down week. Somewhere along the line -- maybe after Steven Jackson came back or Roddy White fully recovered -- he would have had a clunker or two. Everybody does.

Just because he hadn't yet doesn't mean someone who has isn't pulling his weight. You've allowed Jones' consistency to set an impossible standard for everyone else.

Green is on pace for 99.2 catches for 1,155.2 yards and 9.6 touchdowns. Aren't those about the numbers you expected when you drafted him? He's had some ups and downs along the way, but that's normal even for the great ones. Maybe because his best game came in Week 1, you're worried defenses have him figured out or something, but to some degree, it's cyclical. The Bengals just used a two-headed rushing attack to take down a previously undefeated Patriots team, which means defenses will have to shift some of their focus to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard, which means they'll have to shift some away from Green, which means, sooner or later, he's putting up another 160 yards.

Martin is lacking in touchdowns so far and hasn't been particularly efficient with his carries, but especially now that the Buccaneers have turned to rookie Mike Glennon at quarterback, he's the entire offense. He's on pace for 1,368 rushing yards, for crying out loud. In today's NFL, any running back who reaches 1,000 is pulling his weight.

I can understand your frustration with Wilson and Jackson. Wilson has yet to offer any reason for optimism and is now dealing with injury, and Jackson, as compared to Martin, is a more likely casualty of the Buccaneers' switch to Glennon. I don't have especially high hopes for either going forward.

But my point is you have enough heavy hitters to make a run at the playoffs even without Jones. If you feel like you need a little extra something, you can always try the trade market. Maybe a couple of your better bench players could land you an undervalued Fred Jackson or Frank Gore. Or maybe you could make up for the loss of Jones by upgrading at quarterback. I don't know who you have there, but if it's someone relatively high-end like Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan or even Philip Rivers, now might be a decent time to make a play for Aaron Rodgers, provided you have a good enough second player to include in the deal.

I rejected a trade involving Julio Jones and Willis McGahee on Friday. I could have had Doug Martin and DeSean Jackson, but I was drinking the Ryan-Jones Kool-Aid. Now, my season is over at 2-3. -- Mr. Niceguy

I hate to introduce Mr. Niceguy to Mr. Meanman, but I can't fathom why you would have turned down that trade in the first place. Given the shortage of quality running backs, Jones straight-up for Martin would have been at worst dead even, and Jackson is miles ahead of McGahee, who I consider a fringe waiver guy.

I understand every situation is different, but turning down two must-start guys (including a first-rounder) for the price of one would have required incredible depth, which you clearly don't have. If you did, you wouldn't be saying your season is over at 2-3.

Either way, I don't think it's over. If you've been playing the waiver wire all season, you should at least have a couple serviceable wide receivers on your bench, which should be enough to keep you competitive as long as you're stable at quarterback and running back. And then, if you keep playing the waiver wire, eventually you might strike gold at the position.

You've already missed out on Alshon Jeffery, I'm sure, but if history holds, we haven't seen the last big waiver claim at wide receiver.

Keenan Allen is a hot ticket! -- slippydog19

Who knows? Maybe it's him. He's already been claimed in all of my leagues, but he's still owned in only 47 percent. Clearly, he fills an important role in the Chargers passing game. I worried what might happen to Philip Rivers' numbers after downfield threat Malcom Floyd went down with a neck injury, but after back-to-back games of 400-plus yards for Rivers, I'm thinking Allen is sufficiently meeting that need.

Other potentially available wide receivers who I'm eyeing include DeAndre Hopkins, who has struggled recently but clearly has tons of potential playing opposite the injury-prone Andre Johnson, Nate Washington, who had back-to-back 100-yard games for the Titans before understandably taking a step back against the Chiefs, Golden Tate, who was finally the Seahawk' most targeted receiver Sunday after earning rave reviews this preseason, Terrance Williams, who has been terrific in place of the injured Miles Austin, Donnie Avery, who made the most of a couple downfield looks before hurting his shoulder last week, Rueben Randle, who has shown enough as a No. 3 to have me longing for the next Hakeem Nicks injury, and Harry Douglas, who -- as much as I've pooh-poohed him here -- is sure to offer something halfway decent if both Jones and White are missing.

And if you're lucky enough to have more than just a couple serviceable wide receivers on your bench, it's probably overkill. See if you can find a guy with a couple holes to fill and offer up a 2-for-1. A buy-low would be ideal. Someone on CBSSports.com recently swapped Vernon Davis and Dwayne Bowe for Larry Fitzgerald. That's the sort of trade that, if it works out as I think it will, with Carson Palmer making better use of his top target in the weeks ahead, will bring you just about back to where you started with Jones in your lineup.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB or Facebook . You can also follow Scott via Twitter @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Packers' Aaron Rodgers named NFL MVP at NFL Honors
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was named the 2015 NFL MVP at the NFL Honors awards show, held Saturday at the Phoenix Symphony Hall in Phoenix, Ariz.

Rodgers played all 16 regular-season games in 2014 for just the second time in the last five seasons, completing 65.6 percent of his passes while racking up 4,381 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. He also added two more touchdowns on the ground while gaining 269 rushing yards on 43 carries.

Several other awards were handed out at the ceremony Saturday, as follows.

AP Offensive Player of the Year: DeMarco Murray, Cowboys

AP Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Odell Beckham, Giants

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aaron Donald, Rams

AP Comeback Player of the Year: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

AP Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Cardinals

AP Assistant Coach of the Year: Todd Bowles, Cardinals

Walter Payton Man of Year: Thomas Davis, Panthers

Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award: Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

Salute to Service Award: Jared Allen, Bears

NFL.com Fantasy Player of the Year: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers

FedEx Air Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

FedEx Ground Player of the Year: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers

Deacon Jones Award: Justin Houston, Chiefs

Greatness on the Road Award: Tony Romo, Cowboys

Bridgestone Performance Play of the Year: Odell Beckham one-handed catch

Don Shula High School Coach of the Year: Bruce Larson, Somerset (Wisconsin) High School

In addition, eight finalists were voted into the Hall of Fame: running back Jerome Bettis, wide receiver Tim Brown, defensive end/linebacker Charles Haley, linebacker Junior Seau, guard Will Shields, center Mick Tingelhoff and executives Bill Polian and Ron Wolf.


Seahawks' Kam Chancellor participates in Saturday walkthrough
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor injured his knee late in Friday's practice but was well enough to participate in Saturday's walkthrough for Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports.

Coach Pete Carroll indicated optimism that Chancellor, who is considered probable to play Sunday, would be cleared to participate in the Super Bowl, per the Seahawks' pool report.

"He looked pretty good today," Carroll said. "We will make sure we test him in pregame, but he remarkably looked great today, and so that’s all we have to go on."

Chancellor is one of six Seattle players listed as probable to play in Sunday's game.


Lions WR Calvin Johnson does not need offseason surgery
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson indicated Saturday that he will not need to undergo offseason surgery, the Detroit Free Press reports.

Johnson had surgery on his ankle and finger last offseason, and while he missed three games due to injury in October, he played every game from November onward despite being limited by an ankle injury in practice. The Lions wide receiver finished with 71 receptions for 1,077 yards and eight touchdowns in 2014.


Patriots upgrade center Bryan Stork to probable for Super Bowl
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) The Patriots have upgraded center Bryan Stork to probable for Sunday's Super Bowl, the team announced Saturday. 

Stork was considered questionable with a knee injury after missing the AFC Championship game and was limited in practice Friday. The Patriots are currently 1-point favorites against the Seahawks Sunday.


Geno Smith hopeful Jets bring back Percy Harvin in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Jets quarterback Geno Smith knows he can't make the ultimate decision, but he wants to see Percy Harvin back in New York in 2015.

"I would love for Percy to come back," Smith said. "Obviously I can’t make that decision, but from my short time with him he’s been a great teammate. He’s obviously a dynamic player and I’d love to see what he can do in this new offense."

Harvin played eight games with the Jets in 2014, catching 29 passes for 350 yards. 

However, Harvin is due $10.5 million in base salary in 2014, and is under contract until 2018.


Eagles' Nick Foles expecting to be starter in Philadelphia next year
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Eagles quarterback Nick Foles said he is expecting to be back in Philadelphia in 2015, leading the offesne.

"My expectation is to be out there and be the starting guy," Foles said, according to CSNPhilly.com. "I expect to be out there with my teammates leading them. I’ve never thought otherwise throughout this whole time. 


"I know there’s been a lot of things said, but the only thing I’m worried about is making myself the best player, the best person to help lead my team."

Foles, who threw for 2,163 yards and 13 touchdowns in an injury-shortened season, expects to be back at full strength by the time training camp rolls around.

"Completely healthy, ready to go," he said. "Just grinding away. Just can’t wait to get back out there."


Jets' Geno Smith doesn't know if he will start in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Jets quarterback Geno Smith said Saturday he is unsure of his status with the team and has not received a definitive answer from new coach Todd Bowles on whether he will be the starter in 2015, according to Rich Cimini of ESPN.

Smith, who threw for 2,525 yards with 13 touchdowns in 2014, also isn't sure if the Jets will try to draft a quarterback in the first round like Jamies Winston or Marcus Mariota, but he would welcome the challenge as more competition.


Cardinals coach Bruce Arians: 'It's really (Fitzgerald's) decision'
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told reporters Friday he really wants to see wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald back in Arizona next season.

"I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t," Arians said. "We definitely, desperately want him to stay. He knows that. It’s really his decision."

Fitzgerald has a salary cap hit of $23.6 million for 2015 and the team will work to get that number down in the offseason. Team president Michael Bidwill said this week contract talks won't start fully until after the Super Bowl.

"I’m hoping and praying every day that it does happen," Arians said. "I’ve expressed to him personally how much it means to us."

Fitzgerald has not reached 1,000 yards receiving in the past three seasons and totaled 784 in 2014 on 63 catches with two touchdowns.


Seahawks corner Byron Maxwell set to test free agency
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Seahawks cornerback Byron Maxwell is ready to hit the free-agent market during the upcoming offseason and feels the Super Bowl will be his last game in Seattle.

"I’m the prettiest girl at the dance right now," Maxwell said. "But yeah, it’s one of those things I’m excited about it. I would love to be here, but I’m ready to see what’s out there and see how things work out."

Maxwell, who was heavily targeted this year with the Seahawks secondary filled with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, grabbed two interceptions and defended 11 passes.

"Coming into the season I already knew teams were going to try me," Maxwell said. "But it was cool. I accept that. That’s more opportunities for me to get the rock and put my name out there."


Report: Titans S Bernard Pollard wants to be released
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Titans safety Bernard Pollard has requested a release from his contract, The Tennessean reports. He is scheduled to make $3.1 million in the final season of his two-year deal in 2015.

Pollard submitted his request to general manager Ruston Webster at the end of the regular season, per the report. He is recovering from a ruptured Achilles and wants to play in 2015, but said on The Tennessean's Bernard Pollard Show earlier this month that he was unsure of his future with the Titans.

"I am not getting any younger, so I want to win, I really do. I want to win,'' Pollard said. "Looking at how things took place this year, looking at where (the Titans) need to be for next year, that is a tough, tough question, and I don't even know if they can give me the answer. I have one year on my deal, but it is going to take some time."

Pollard has been out of his walking boot for a month and is making progress in rehab. He suffered his Achilles injury in Week 5 and was placed on injured reserve.


 
 
 
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