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Reality Check: Buy-low and sell-high candidates

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Buy low, sell high ... by now, everyone's pretty familiar with the concept.

So then why do so few get it right?

I'm generally uncomfortable labeling a player a buy-low or sell-high because it can vary so much from league to league and circumstance to circumstance. Plus, it's often more of a hindrance than a help to Fantasy owners, who take it as an edict to overhaul their rosters.

But as I assess trade possibilities in each of my leagues, I so often find myself gravitating toward the same players that I'd be doing you a disservice by keeping it to myself.

Here's what you need to remember: It's not "buy at all costs" and "sell at all costs," but buy low and sell high. That second word is just as important as the first. In many cases, the sell-high is actually the better player than the buy-low. The label has nothing to do with how one player compares to another and everything to do with how he compares to himself. Actual value vs. perceived value -- when the two don't match up, you have a chance to capitalize.

A chance, not a mandate. If the goal is to use market misconceptions to improve your team's standing, then you need to make sure the deal does just that. And I do mean make sure.

It all comes down to going rate, which you can gauge with the help of Dave Richard's Fantasy Trade Value Chart (Week 7 edition can be found here). Generally speaking, a one-for-one deal isn't the best way to nab a definitively better player. While you could potentially get Steven Jackson for Stevan Ridley -- which, as I note below, could pay off in the long run -- a true buy-low wouldn't require you to pay that price. An owner who's legitimately suffering from the loss of Jackson may settle for an offer of Alshon Jeffery and Zac Stacy, hoping to stop the bleeding there. And that's the way to buy low.

As long as you're not bleeding yourself, it's not like you'll miss the extra player. The waiver wire abounds with breakout candidates, many of whom nobody sees coming. In the weeks ahead, you'll find an adequate bye-week replacement, if that's all you'd be looking to replace.

Maybe another Jackson owner would pass on that offer. Maybe he'd even laugh in your face. But under the right circumstances, most would at least have to consider it.

And the same goes for the sell-highs. Knowshon Moreno should buy you an awful lot on the trade market right now. Could he and Trent Richardson land you Jamaal Charles from an owner desperate to fill his flex spot? It's not so far-fetched, really.

If the guy (or gal) doesn't go for it, oh well. You tried. No harm in keeping Moreno for yourself. What you don't want is for him to coerce you into a lesser deal, such as Frank Gore straight-up for Moreno, which would be no one's idea of a sell-high.

You shouldn't go into any buy-low or sell-high scenario thinking deal or bust. Even if you come away empty-handed, you'll at least have the satisfaction of knowing you've done your due diligence.

Now then, let's get started ...

Buy-lows

Roddy White, WR, Falcons: As you may have heard, Julio Jones is out for the season. The Falcons are built to throw, so somebody has to be on the other end of those Matt Ryan passes. As a four-time Pro-Bowler himself, White is the obvious choice. Fortunately for the discerning buyer, his value isn't evident just yet. An ankle injury dating back to the preseason has rendered him useless so far. Now that his hamstring is hurting as well, he'll get a chance to rest the ankle, which he admits he should have been doing all along. You may get nothing from him for the next 2-3 weeks, but he shouldn't cost much more than a bench player.
Better in the long run than ... Alshon Jeffery, Anquan Boldin

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Right now, Johnson owners are feeling like they should have known better than to draft a notorious underachiever in the second round, but you'd be happy to take that problem off their hands. Johnson's 3.1 yards per carry aren't too surprising when you consider he's had to face the Steelers, Texans, Jets, Chiefs and Seahawks -- all top-six defenses -- so far. His matchup against the 49ers this week isn't much better, but then after a bye in Week 8, it's smooth sailing. Four of his next five opponents rank in the bottom five against the run, and the one that doesn't is Oakland.
Better in the long run than ... Frank Gore, Fred Jackson

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Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins: Though he's thrown for just one touchdown in his last three games, Griffin showed signs of regaining his 2012 form at Dallas last time out, more than doubling his previous season-high with 77 rushing yards. After surgery to repair a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus in January, his rehabilitation is ongoing, but now that he's regarded as a backup in most Fantasy circles, you can afford a little optimism, especially with favorable matchups against the Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles, Giants (twice), Falcons and Cowboys ahead. As long as you don't give up a must-start quarterback for Griffin, you've done well for yourself.
Better in the long run than ... Tom Brady, Russell Wilson

Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons: Like White, Jackson should benefit from the loss of Julio Jones, and like White, he hasn't endeared himself to his Fantasy owners just yet, having sat out the last three games (four weeks) with a hamstring injury. This week will make it four. Considering the initial timetable was 2-4 weeks, he can't be too far from returning. Yes, the Falcons are built to throw, but Jackson is a good enough receiver to inherit some of Jones' targets. Plus, he's more likely to get the ball at the goal line now that a Jones fade route is off the table. Your third (or maybe even fourth) running back and a spare receiver could get the deal done.
Better in the long run than ... Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: When the Chargers went without downfield threat Malcom Floyd for the first time in Week 3, Philip Rivers looked like he might be in trouble, throwing for just 184 yards. In three games since, he's averaged 349.7. The reason? Rookie Keenan Allen has more than picked up the slack, averaging 100.7 receiving yards in those three games. With his targets going up each week his role appears secure, and looking ahead at the matchups, he'll only get to do more with it going forward. Three of his next four opponents rank in the bottom 10 against the pass, and the one that doesn't is Jacksonville.
Better in the long run than ... Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: Though Edelman's production has gone down the last couple games, his targets haven't, which suggests he's still the closest thing to Wes Welker in the new-look Patriots offense. Granted, that may only last for as long as Danny Amendola is out, but ... um, hello? Did you see what happened to him Sunday? First game back from a groin injury, and he comes away woozy. Even if he's back in relatively short order, I don't know that he gets first dibs. By then, Tom Brady will have everyone else's timing down. I've seen Edelman get dropped in some leagues, so he may cost you next to nothing.
Better in the long run than ... T.Y. Hilton, Kenbrell Thompkins

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: The biggest impediment to Jones-Drew this season hasn't been Jones-Drew, but Blaine Gabbert. Without so much as the threat of the pass, opponents have no reason to take their eyes off the three-time Pro-Bowler. But a couple developments over the last two weeks have significantly altered Jones-Drew's outlook. Gabbert hurt his hamstring, allowing the halfway competent Chad Henne to play quarterback, and former fifth overall pick Justin Blackmon returned from a four-game suspension to put up 326 yards in two games. The impact on Jones-Drew showed just this past week, when he had his best game of the season against the Broncos' top-rated run defense. Maybe he's not washed up after all.
Better in the long run than ... Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: Nobody doubts Rodgers is a stud, but particularly those owning him for the first time may have forgotten exactly what that means. Three straight games with just one touchdown pass have brought him down to Matt Ryan level pretty quickly. But remember: He had a couple rough patches last year as well, throwing a combined three touchdown passes in Weeks 1-3 and a combined two in Weeks 12-14 and still finished as the No. 2 quarterback in Fantasy. Eddie Lacy has given the Packers a running game in recent weeks, but it's not like he's stealing touchdowns. Rodgers will still get his. Between the injuries to his receiving corps and the recent shortage of touchdowns, Rodgers has given his owner reason to think twice if you offer up your top quarterback and second running back.
Better in the long run than ... Philip Rivers, Tony Romo

Sell-highs

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: I don't doubt Moreno has the talent to continue doing what he's been doing, but Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman haven't exactly gone away. They don't block as well as Moreno, which is kind of important with Peyton Manning at quarterback, but the Broncos like them enough to give them carries whenever possible. When the game is in hand and passing is no longer necessary, they usually come in for Moreno. The Broncos are sure to have more games like that, as powerful as their offense is. Plus, Moreno hasn't exactly been a model of health over the years. I'm not saying you dump him for a second-tier back, but maybe you capitalize on this opportunity to upgrade.
Worse in the long run than ... Alfred Morris, Doug Martin

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Rookie Mike Glennon may have a future as the Buccaneers quarterback, but you can't expect him to be the quick study Andrew Luck was last year. In Week 6, he did exactly what you'd hope he'd do against the league's second-to-last pass defense, throwing for 273 yards and two touchdowns, and he may do fine against the 26th-ranked pass defense this week. But looking ahead to the Panthers (twice), the Seahawks, the 49ers and, yes, the Saints, he's going to have plenty of weeks where you can't trust him to get the ball to Jackson, which means you can't trust Jackson. Maybe you should cash in on the former Charger while you can.
Worse in the long run than ... Marques Colston, Mike Wallace

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: Relying mostly on short passes and yards after the catch, Bradford has been piling up touchdowns over the first few weeks, ranking sixth among quarterbacks in standard CBSSports.com leagues. But much of his success came against teams that struggle against the pass, such as Atlanta, Dallas and Jacksonville. Looking ahead, six of his next 10 opponents rank in the top 10 against the pass. And without any sort of long game, he's unlikely to buck the trend. He's probably just a backup for you anyway, but with his value presumably at its highest right now, you may be able to dupe someone into believing he's a starter.
Worse in the long run than ... Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger

Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: Most likely, Moore will remain a productive Fantasy option all year just because the Raiders have no one else to catch the ball, but the rate at which he's been scoring touchdowns is simply too good to be true. Terrelle Pryor has thrown five touchdown passes this season. All but one have gone to Moore. That can't last. If the rest of your league values Moore as no better than a high-end flex option, then maybe you should stick with him. But his No. 11 ranking among wide receivers in standard CBSSports.com leagues so far has the potential to inflate his value.
Worse in the long run than ... Hakeem Nicks, Justin Blackmon

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: The main appeal of Bernard on Draft Day was the possibility of him overtaking the plodding BenJarvus Green-Ellis down the line. But six games into the season, Green-Ellis doesn't appear to be going anywhere. So how much can Bernard really do with 15 touches per game? So far, he's the 12th-ranked running back in standard CBSSports.com leagues, but he's been scoring touchdowns at a rate I'm not confident he can sustain, especially since three of his next five opponents rank in the top seven against the run. You certainly wouldn't want to undersell him, but now might be your last chance to pair him with another player and get a Matt Forte or Marshawn Lynch type.
Worse in the long run than ... C.J. Spiller, Eddie Lacy

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: After several weeks of iffy production, Fitzgerald's Week 6 performance may have been just enough to get the Fantasy-playing world back on board. Better strike while the iron is hot. It's not that Fitzgerald will be bad exactly, but looking ahead to his matchups against the Seahawks (twice), Texans, Colts, Titans and 49ers -- all top-10 defenses against the pass -- the 100-yard games will probably be more the exception than the rule with a struggling Carson Palmer throwing him the ball. Right now, he still has the price tag of a stud receiver.
Worse in the long run than ... Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts: Of the 10 quarterbacks owned in 100 percent of leagues, Luck has the fewest touchdown passes with seven. Given the Colts' going game plan this year -- playing good defense and controlling the clock -- that doesn't figure to change. They don't want to get in a shootout, and in today's NFL, a shootout is the only way for a quarterback to stand out. Given his ownership percentage, a lot of people still have faith in Luck, and his name value should fetch a decent return in Fantasy. Provided you have even an adequate backup (check the waiver wire just to be sure), you might as well test the waters with him.
Worse in the long run than ... Russell Wilson, Michael Vick/Nick Foles

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Remove Jonathan Stewart from the equation, and suddenly Williams is a respectable Fantasy option again. Funny how that works. But add Stewart back to the equation, and most likely, no one's laughing. Most likely, no one's biting on a trade either, so in these last couple weeks before Stewart returns from an ankle injury, you should probably be shopping Williams. He hasn't been productive enough for you to bother dealing him straight-up, but pair him with a fringy wide receiver, and you may have a shot at an Eddie Lacy or Antonio Brown type.
Worse in the long run than ...
Le'Veon Bell, Zac Stacy

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Scott via Twitter @CBSScottWhite .

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Player News
Vikings' Adrian Peterson to begin probation on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(6:25 pm ET) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will begin his probation on Wednesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Peterson will begin community service, and will undergo counseling to determine whether he has a drug problem. Peterson will report to a probation officer once a month in order to take a drug test. The strict drug testing stems from an Oct. 8 pre-trail urinalysis. Peterson admitted to "smoking a little weed," though the results from the test were never disclosed. 

Probation officials will also determine whether Peterson needs to attend parenting classes. 

Per his plea agreement, Peterson was fined $4,000 and ordered to perform 80 hours of community service. He's required to perform at least 16 hours per month, which would allow him to complete to program prior to training camp.

Peterson is under contract with the Vikings for next season, and is set to earn $12.75 million. The team is not allowed to communicate with Peterson during his suspension. 


Austin Collie signs with CFL's BC Lions
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5:35 pm ET) Free-agent receiver Austin Collie has signed with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League, the team announced Thursday.

"I’m excited to be joining the Lions and very much look forward to playing in the CFL," said Collie. "The wide-open play of the Canadian game and the passion of fans across the league is going to be a lot of fun to experience."

Collie played four seasons with the Colts and one with the Patriots. In his last NFL action, he caught four passes for 57 yards in the 2014 AFC Championship Game.


Eagles RB LeSean McCoy: 'I don't want to take less money'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(4:39 pm ET) Eagles running back LeSean McCoy reiterated Thursday that while he'd be willing to restructure his contract if asked, he would not accept a pay cut, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

"I know how hard it is to keep a team together and I want to be part of this team. But I don't want to take less money," McCoy said. "I want to figure a way to make it happen [where] we're all together."

McCoy, who is due to count $11.95 million against the cap in 2015, turned in his fourth 1,000-yard season in the last five years in 2014, finishing with 1,319 rushing yards on 312 carries and 155 receiving yards on a career-low 28 receptions. All five of his touchdowns came on the ground.


Bills' Rex Ryan won't commit to EJ Manuel as starting QB
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(4:01 pm ET) When asked about who his starting quarterback would be in 2015, Bills coach Rex Ryan said the team would look at every available option, reports The Buffalo News.

"We're going to exhaust every resource we can," Ryan said. "We'll look at free agents. We'll look at the draft. We'll look at anything."

The Bills have former first-round pick EJ Manuel on their roster, but Ryan said he would not commit to Manuel as his starting quarterback at this time.

"To say that he's definitely going to be the guy, it's way too early to say that," Ryan said.


Bills RB Fred Jackson excited to play for new coach Rex Ryan
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:23 pm ET) Bills veteran running back Fred Jackson said he hasn't had the opportunity to meet with new coach Rex Ryan, but that didn't stop him from expressing his excitement about the new coaching regime in Buffalo.

"I can't wait to play for him. I've heard nothing but good things," Jackson said Wednesday of Ryan during an interview on ESPN New York 98.7 FM. "I'm looking forward to that [first] conversation when I sit down and talk to him."

The Bills finished 9-7 in 2014, which was their best record since 2004. While Jackson believes Ryan is going to "be that catalyst that comes in and pushes us over that hump," he didn't have many bad things to say about coach Doug Marrone, who opted out of his contract New Year's Eve.

"I thought he was a tremendous coach," Jackson said. "He showed up, he worked hard, he pushed players to give their best effort. He got us to a 9-7 record -- we hadn't won nine games in 10 years. There's definitely some things about him that made him a great coach. It's just the way he exited. I don't think anybody expected that. 

"Players, the way we found out is we got a generic text from him, saying that he was moving on and he had chosen to opt out of his contract." 


Justin Tuck: Raider Nation would appluad signing Ndamukong Suh
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:42 pm ET) If defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh doesn't sign a long-term deal with the Lions, then he will become a free agent March 10 and there will be plenty of teams interested in the Pro Bowl lineman. 

Raiders defensive end Justin Tuck indicated if Suh wanted to sign with Oakland, then he would be welcomed in Raider Nation.

"(He's) Raider-ish," Tuck said, per the Detroit Free Press. "And that's one of the reasons why I know Raider Nation would applaud that move, beyond the fact that he's an awesome football player. He kind of fits the mold of ... the toughness and the ferocious player that built the Oakland Raiders."

It is speculated Suh will receive a contract worth at least $100 million. Tuck believes the three-time All-Pro deserves such a lucrative deal.

"The thing about him, you know what you're getting every day. Some of the tactics, you could probably do without, but he's a hell of a football player," Tuck said. "I would love to have the opportunity to line up beside of him and let him take all the double teams that I normally take."


Nick Foles: 'I plan on being in Philly' in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1:48 pm ET) There has been a lot of talk about quarterback Nick Foles' future with the Eagles, especially since Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly's former pupil at Oregon -- Marcus Mariota -- will be part of this year's draft class.

On Thursday, Foles addressed the rumors and stated he is expecting to be back on the Eagles' roster in 2015.

"Yeah you hear about it," Foles said in between doing paid appearances at Super Bowl XLIX, per NJ.com. "You are going to hear about it every single year. That's just part of it. The main word is 'rumor.' You can't put too much into it....I plan on being in Philly.

"I only listen to (head coach) Chip Kelly. That's what is most important. He is the one that will make the decision. Right now all I am going to do is work because I plan on being back in Philadelphia and playing with my team. That's all I ever thought. So that is what I plan on doing and I'm not looking at it any other way."

Foles added he hasn't talked with Kelly since the end of the season.

"We haven't talked a lot. He has a lot going on," Foles said. "This time of year you really just get away from everything. He is busy looking at the draft, doing all that. I saw he is more of the decision maker. Haven't really talked to him too much, but I'm sure I'll hear from him soon."


Dwyer pleads guilty in domestic violence case, gets probation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1:38 pm ET) Cardinals running back Jonathan Dwyer pleaded guilty Thursday in Maricopa County (Ariz.) Superior Court to a single count of disorderly conduct pertaining to his domestic violence case, according to The Arizona Republic.

Dwyer was sentenced to 18 months of probation and community service following the plea, according to a court spokesman.

The 25-year-old Dwyer was arrested Sept. 17 for a July 21 incident in which he allegedly head-butted his wife in the face and broke her nose after she refused his sexual advances and bit his lip, according to reports taken at the time.

Dwyer's wife told police she reported the incident in September because she feared for their child's safety after seeing reports of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's arrest on child-abuse charges.

The Cardinals placed Dwyer on the reserve/non-football injury list after his September arrest. He did not play again during the 2014 season.


Tom Brady on Peyton Manning: 'I certainly hope he comes back'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:21 pm ET) While the football world anxiously awaits official word from Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning about his playing status for the 2015 season, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady -- and longtime Manning rival -- said Thursday he hopes the five-time NFL MVP will continue his career.

"What a great player he's been for this league," Brady said Thursday, per NFL.com. "He's a great competitor, and I've been fortunate to play against him a bunch of times. I certainly hope he comes back, 'cause the league will miss him if he doesn't. But those decisions are up to him. I'm sure it's up to whether he's mentally and physically -- that's what he wants to do. But I certainly hope he's back."

Archie Manning, Peyton's father, told NFL Network on Thursday that his son hasn't made a decision yet.

"Well, Peyton evaluates things; he's pretty good at that," he said. "I can't tell him what to do, and he hasn't told me what he's going to do. But I do know that he's really giving a lot of things a lot of thought. He's thinking about where he is physically, he wants to see how he can do this some more, trying to get over an injury."

Archie added starting over with new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak will not be an issue for Peyton, if he decides to return next season.

"Yeah, but he loves Gary. He likes Gary," Archie Manning said. "He liked John Fox. He liked Adam Gase. All those things, I think, are considered with. But my deal is he's always made good decisions; he's pretty thorough. He's going to evaluate a lot of things, and I think he'll make a good decision."


RG3: 'I could've sat out the rest of last year' after hurting ankle
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:04 pm ET) During a radio interview Wednesday night, Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III indicated the dislocated ankle he suffered in Week 2 against the Jaguars hindered him the rest of the season. He missed six games due to the injury.

“I had never suffered an ankle injury of that severity before, so I didn’t really know what to expect,” Griffin said, per The Washington Times. “It just became more and more tough the more games that we lost, because you know how hard your guys work, and you want to get out there and help them win games.

“I could’ve sat out the rest of last year, with how bad the ankle was, but I felt like I could play, and I wanted to get out there and play with my guys and help them win games. And that didn’t happen when I got back out there. Then coach made a decision [to bench me]. That was an unfortunate decision, and something we all had to go with because that was coach’s choice.”

Griffin will be entering the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2015. The Redskins have until May 3 to decide if they want to exercise the fifth-year option on his contract for 2016. 

Griffin added his focus this offseason will simply be on getting healthy.

“Last year, I wasn’t healthy, and it sucked,” Griffin told ESPN 980. “There’s no other way to say it other than that. When you dislocate your ankle in the second week of the season, when you and your team had big things in mind. So I guess it’s just getting healthy, getting a mental break, getting a chance to spend time with family, and then formulate my plan going forward from this year so we can go out there and win games.”


 
 
 
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