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Fantasy & Reality: First round frustration?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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A hip injury here, a twisted ankle there, a trade to Cleveland and a number of other issues have decimated what once looked like a murderer's row of Fantasy studs atop our pre-draft rank lists.

It's resulted in major frustration. Of the first 10 rushers drafted on average this summer, there are major question marks with more than half of them. Heck, four of them aren't even averaging 10 Fantasy points per game. It's made for a nightmare -- no one likes to be "that guy" who misses on a first-round pick and this year there are a lot of them.

Who should be benched? Who should be dropped? Here's a review of the Top 10 drafted running backs through seven weeks of the season.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Draft average: 1.11
Start percentage last week: 100
Top 12 finishes this year: 3 of 6 games

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There's some concern over Peterson after totaling 12 Fantasy points over his last two games against the Panthers and Giants. In that span he's averaged 14 touches per game, an uncharacteristically low number for him considering he had at least 22 touches in each of his first four games. It could be because of his hamstring, which reportedly tightened up on him at New York, or it could be because the coaches have implored their quarterbacks to take advantage of "what the defense gives you" and not force Peterson into eight-in-the-box situations. Coach Leslie Frazier said Monday he plans to get the situation fixed fast, so there's some confidence Peterson could see his workload improve. But it's a concern: He hasn't had a two-week skid this bad since 2010 (and he snapped it after two games).
Cut him? Never
Trade him? Only if someone offers a no-brainer. Now's the time to try and trade for Peterson.
Start him? Definitely. Expect the Vikings to utilize their best offensive weapon in their game plans moving forward.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers
Draft average: 4.61
Start percentage last week: 96
Top 12 finishes this year: 1 of 6 games

Martin has a torn labrum in his shoulder but there's no definitive timetable for his return. Multiple media reports have Martin missing the rest of the year; Bucs coach Greg Schiano won't rule him out past Week 8. But with the Bucs staring at another losing season they'd be foolish to rush Martin back in a meaningless season. It's that kind of thinking that should lead Fantasy owners to consider cutting Martin.
Cut him? You don't have to, but if you need someone off waivers and don't have someone else to cut, then do it.
Trade him? No one is going to give you anything for him unless keepers are involved.
Start him? Not anytime soon.

Arian Foster, Texans
Draft average: 5.21
Start percentage last week: 99
Top 12 finishes this year: 3 of 7 games

Fantasy owners were satisfied with Foster going into last week's game. Despite just three Top 12 finishes he also had one Top 13 finish, another Top 20 finish and couldn't finish his Week 7 game at Kansas City because of a hamstring injury. Coach Gary Kubiak called him "day-to-day" which is good news, considering it took Foster a lot of time to get healthy after offseason calf and back injuries. If Kubiak is being honest -- which he hasn't always been when it comes to his running backs -- then Foster should be expected back in action in Week 9. Either way, now's the time to trade for Ben Tate (who is also hurting with broken ribs but says he'll play) if you don't have him already.
Cut him? Unless the hamstring injury that's "day-to-day" becomes "month-to-month" he should be on rosters.
Trade him? If you can get a haul in trade for Foster, including a reliable starting rusher, then go for it. There has to be some concern about Foster suffering another injury, no matter how small.
Start him? He's on bye in Week 8, but assuming all is well come Week 9 he remains a must-start.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Draft average: 5.95
Start percentage last week: 100
Top 12 finishes this year: 7 of 7 games

Charles is the engine in Andy Reid's offense, maybe even more than LeSean McCoy was in Philadelphia. Charles already has at least 19 touches per week and at least one touchdown and over 100 total yards in every single game! About the only helpful advice I could offer here is to pick up his backup, Knile Davis, in case Charles misses any playing time. Nothing suggests Charles is headed for a downturn.
Cut him? Child please.
Trade him? No way.
Start him? Of course.

C.J. Spiller, Bills
Draft average: 6.66
Start percentage last week: 58
Top 12 finishes this year: 1 of 7 games

Even with Fred Jackson taking on more work than we thought he would, the Bills lived up to their promise of giving Spiller as much work as he could handle early on as he averaged 16.5 carries and 4.0 catches per game through the first two weeks. Then he hurt his quad against the Jets in Week 3. Everything went sour from there as Spiller limped off the field the following week and has limped off after decent runs each of his last two games. It's obvious he's not close to 100 percent and the Bills have moved away from giving him a big amount of reps. Though it's believed Spiller will regain his role once he's healthy, there's no telling when it will happen. It probably won't be in the Bills' next four games against staunch defenses in New Orleans, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Jets before their bye. Owners might feel compelled to make a move involving Spiller.
Cut him? I wouldn't go that far since he could have some really nice late-season value. Plus, if he hit the waiver wire in my league I'd pick him up in a heartbeat for my bench.
Trade him? I'd deal him so long as I got a fair offer for him. Expect someone in the neighborhood of Alshon Jeffery or DeAngelo Williams. Seriously. You can't expect first-round value for a player who's delivered like a late-round pick, but you should still be able to get a decent starter for him. If you need to win now this should be the route you take.
Start him? Last week I thought he'd be healthy enough to contribute vs. Miami and then he got hurt again. The Bills would be wise to let him rest a week and let Jackson and Tashard Choice handle the game action. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but I wouldn't risk a starting spot on Spiller.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
Draft average: 7.93
Start percentage last week: 100
Top 12 finishes this year: 4 of 7 games

Lynch remains the bully in the Seahawks backfield. He's even taken on a little more work as a receiver, catching 14 passes through seven games (it took him 10 games to catch 14 passes last year). Only three tough games remain on his schedule.
Cut him? Never.
Trade him? Someone is offering you Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy? Cool. Otherwise, nope.
Start him? Always.

Ray Rice, Ravens
Draft average: 9.31
Start percentage last week: 95
Top 12 finishes this year: 2 of 6 games

There's a lot to be worried about with Rice, the biggest of which being his absolute lack of production in five of his last six games. Take away his Week 1 success against the Broncos and his multi-score game at Miami in Week 5 and you've got a back who has totaled 183 yards in five games. That's brutal. He doesn't have a play good for more than 14 yards this year and he's averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less in every game! Some of this is because the Ravens' offensive line is in flux, but a lot of it has to do with Rice struggling through a hip injury suffered in Week 2. Rice claims he's "looking forward to doing some damage" after the Ravens' Week 8 bye, but the Ravens' schedule has a lot of tough opponents ahead for Rice to deal with.
Cut him? Can't do it. And why do it when you have options?
Trade him? If you're sick of Rice then a deal is your best alternative. I wouldn't mind buying low on Rice in a deal -- others in your league might feel the same way. A trade for someone like Eric Decker or Andre Johnson should be considered fair.
Start him? On a bye in Week 8, Rice's Fantasy owners should maintain mild expectations headed into Week 9.

Trent Richardson, Colts
Draft average: 9.47
Start percentage last week: 74.
Top 12 finishes this year: 0 of 6 games

When we drafted Richardson it was with the idea that he'd work in Norv Turner's running-back friendly offense, catching passes and plowing in at the goal line. A blockbuster trade after Week 2 changed Richardson's course, landing him on a Colts offense that wants to be run-friendly but can't effectively do it. That's no excuse for Richardson's play -- he's been downright putrid -- and as a result the Colts have been relying on Donald Brown to help pick up the slack. Brown has been the better Fantasy back in two of the Colts' last three games! Maybe Indianapolis uses its Week 8 bye to find ways to get Richardson going (he has two catches with the Colts compared to seven in two games with the Browns earlier this season) but right now he's nothing more than a big name with a big draft price tag and nothing to show for it.
Cut him? There will be owners so disgusted with Richardson that they'll punt on him. Don't be one of those owners. I might give him a chance after the bye week even though the Colts' remaining schedule features several tough run defenses, none meaner than at the Chiefs in Week 16.
Trade him? This option stinks because no person will give up something great for Richardson. You're probably looking at a depressing trade for another underachieving player, maybe straight up for someone such as Marques Colston or Cecil Shorts or even Spiller. It's enough to make you keep him.
Start him? When the Colts reconvene in Week 9 it'll be against a Texans defense that has allowed a touchdown to a back in four of its last five and will be without linebacker Brian Cushing. That might be enough to make you consider starting Richardson as a Flex, not a No. 1 or No. 2 Fantasy running back.

LeSean McCoy, Eagles
Draft average: 9.89
Start percentage last week: 100
Top 12 finishes this year: 5 of 7 games

It's crystal clear that Chip Kelly's offense agrees with McCoy. It's also clear he remains effective even without the crazy workload we saw him get in Week 1 (32 touches). Still on pace for over 320 carries, McCoy carries a little injury risk but no one is sweating it so long as he remains in a manageable role. There aren't many tough defenses left for him to face this year, either.
Cut him? No! No! No!
Trade him? You might be talked into it if it means getting Peyton Manning or Jamaal Charles, but realistically McCoy shouldn't be moved.
Start him? Yes! Yes! Yes!

Alfred Morris, Redskins
Draft average: 14.16
Start percentage last week: 95
Top 12 finishes this year: 2 of 6 games

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Our guy Alf has been disappointing but has finished as a Top 20 running back in all but one week this season. That's better than Spiller and Richardson, to name two. What's missing are those games where he decimates a defense like he did last year. Maybe they're coming -- many of Morris' great games in 2012 came because he was used in conjunction with Robert Griffin III in the zone-read offense. Washington has begun to let RG3 run more so that could help Morris as defenses prepare for both him and Griffin. Unfortunately for Morris, the Redskins have given some prime touches to Roy Helu -- he's their passing downs and no-huddle back. It'll take him off the field more than he was last season, though it hasn't meant a total collapse in stats -- he's been under 70 yards rushing once this year (Week 1).
Cut him? That would be drastic.
Trade him? You could, but because there isn't a lot of excitement about Morris you probably won't get what's fair for him. He is still considered a near-elite Fantasy rusher.
Start him? You might be squeamish doing it this week against Denver and in home matchups against San Diego, San Francisco and Kansas City, but unless you have a lot of other choices then Morris will be a regular in your lineup.

Checking in on the averages

After looking at the Top 10 running backs picked back in August, I thought the time was right to see what those guys should be scoring from week to week. Three weeks ago we took a gander at the scoring averages for each tier of player per position. If anything, it's just to get an idea of what to expect from those roster spots week in and week out.

I took the averages from the first, second and third groups of 12 players at each position based on Fantasy points scored in a standard league, then calculated their respective per-game averages. Use this data to grade how your starters have been performing and for some perspective on what to count on going forward.

Tier Wks 1-4 Wks 1-7 Diff.
QB 1-12 24.0 22.1 -1.9
QB 13-24 16.8 15.3 -1.5
RB 1-12 13.9 13.2 -0.7
RB 13-24 8.9 7.8 -1.1
RB 25-36 5.7 6.2 0.5
WR 1-12 13.3 11.8 -1.5
WR 13-24 10.3 8.6 -1.7
WR 25-36 8.3 7.3 -1.0
TE 1-12 10.5 8.9 -1.6
TE 13-24 5.0 4.9 -0.1

The takeaway: Scoring is down across the board from when we did our measurement three weeks ago -- and not just at a certain position. The drop in receiver production is especially confounding, but it goes hand-in-hand with the drop in quarterback stats. Some passers that got off to a hot start have slowed down (Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Sam Bradford) while others are getting hot after a dry spell (Aaron Rodgers, Robert Griffin III, Andy Dalton). Also note that zeroes from the bye are taken into consideration, so that drives down the averages a bit as well. We won't check the numbers again until after the "Bye-nados" of Weeks 8 and 9.

But just for fun, I also cross-referenced the numbers between now and this time last year, with the better averages bolded.

Tier 2012 Wks 1-7 2013 Wks 1-7 Tier 2012 Wks 1-7 2013 Wks 1-7
QB 1-12 21.0 22.1 WR 1-12 11.5 11.8
QB 13-24 15.0 15.3 WR 13-24 8.7 8.6
RB 1-12 12.6 13.2 WR 25-36 7.2 7.3
RB 13-24 8.5 7.8 TE 1-12 7.3 8.9
RB 25-36 5.6 6.2 TE 13-24 4.3 4.9

So even though you might be disappointed in your team's Fantasy performance this season, most positions are still scoring more points now than they were a year ago this time.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: I'm actually nervous I didn't project Nick Foles for enough Fantasy points. That was my closing line for the analysis I wrote for him in Winning Fantasy Calls last week. Embarrassing! I watched the Eagles quarterback take apart the Bucs defense in Week 6 -- I have no idea where that guy was in Week 7. The quarterback I saw -- and started in several of my leagues -- was way off of the mark and slow to get the ball out, even though he regularly had plenty of time to throw against the Cowboys. Foles actually made the Dallas defense look better than it really is. If there's a lesson learned, it's that we all need more than six quarters of a game to be thoroughly convinced a player will be "flawless" (another word choice of mine).

Reality: Harry Douglas took my expectations and tripled them. Another player I was way off on was Douglas, who torched the Bucs last week for a career game. I even wrote a review about him on his player page, only to be completely blown away by his performance. But remember what I learned from my mistake with Foles: Don't fall in love with a player without enough of a track record to justify it. Douglas, like Foles, did very well against the Bucs. His two biggest plays involved him breaking away from coverage, which isn't something he's known for. I might still be cautious in starting him as anything more than a decent No. 2 choice at Arizona this week.

Fantasy: Hakeem Nicks is the second-best receiver in New York. If I had a choice between Nicks and Rueben Randle for this week, I'd go with Randle. The second-year wideout has been better than Nicks in Fantasy points each of the last three weeks, despite having fewer targets and catches. Randle has averaged more yards per catch and has been a regular in the end zone; Nicks hasn't scored yet this season and has had his chances. I saw Nicks struggle last year with his technique while being a step slower than I remember and here we are again seeing it. I'll track these two going forward, but I'd bet on Randle to keep beating the coverage he gets compared to what Nicks sees.

Reality: Mike James will have a chance. If you're looking for a player comparison for new Bucs starting running back Mike James, it's Pierre Thomas. Both are stocky backs without great speed but the tenacity to break tackles and lean forward to pick up a couple of extra yards. James is worth starting as a bye-week replacement or as a Doug Martin replacement with the expectation he delivers along the lines of what we've seen from Martin so far. Those kinds of numbers might be soft for a former first-round Fantasy choice, but they're solid for a guy you might have just picked up off the scrap heap.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Texans waive DT Brandon Ivory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Texans waived rookie defensive tackle Brandon Ivory on Thursday, according to ESPN.com

Ivory was arrested on first degree burglary charges in Tuscaloosa, Ala. just one day ago. Ivory's agent Jeff Guerriero said Ivory is not guilty of the charge. 

"I spoke to Brandon he is not guilty and his name will be cleared of all charges," Guerriero said. 


Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended 4 games for PED use
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the team announced. 

It's unknown at this time what drug Gates tested positive for. Gates, in a statement, said he was unaware that he took a banned substance

"In my 12 years in the NFL, I have taken tremendous pride in upholding the integrity of the NFL shield and all that it entails," Gates said. "I have taken extreme care of my body with a holistic approach and I have never knowingly ingested a substance that was banned by the NFL. In an effort to recover from this past season, I used supplements and holistic medicines, and unfortunately, I have now learned that those substances always present a risk because they may contain banned substances even if the ingredient list doesn’t reflect them.

"As an NFL veteran and team leader, I should have done my due diligence to ensure that what I was taking for recovery was within the NFL guidelines. I understand that I am responsible for what is in my body and I have always believed that ignorance is no excuse when it comes to these issues. I take full responsibility for my actions. I’d like to express my sincere apologies to the Chargers, my teammates, coaches, fans and the league who have always supported me and expected and gotten nothing but the highest level of integrity from me."

With Gates out for four games, the Chargers will turn to Ladarius Green as the team's top tight end, though it was expected for Green to continue getting more looks in the passing game. Green is entering the final season of his rookie contract. 

The Chargers expressed disappointment in Gates for his suspension but plans to stick with the longtime veteran through the suspension. 

"We are tremendously disappointed for our team and our fans as well as Antonio, but no more disappointed than Antonio is with himself," the Chargers stated. "Antonio is a member of the Chargers' family and we will continue to support him 100-percent. We have the utmost confidence he will stay in excellent shape for the season and be ready to go when he returns in Week 5. While it's unfortunate to not have him to start the season, we have complete confidence our tight end group will continue to play at a high level."  


Packers' Datone Jones out 1 game for substance-abuse violation
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Packers defensive lineman Datone Jones will be suspended for one game for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, according to NFL.com. 

Jones will miss Green Bay's season-opener against the Bears. In 2014, Jones totaled 22 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games played. 


Cowboys LB Rolando McClain suspended four games for 2015
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Cowboys announced that linebacker Rolando McClain has been suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season due to violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. 

McClain hasn't been able to participate much in offseason workouts due to going under offseason knee surgery. McClain will be eligible to practice in training camp and is expected to be healthy by then. 

"I apologize to my family, the Cowboys organization, my teammates and Cowboys fans for my mistake. I will not break the rules of my profession in the future, and I regret my error," McClain said in a statement, via CSN Bay Area. "I look forward to returning to the field on week 5, when I hope to help my team beat the Patriots.

In 2014, McClain, who had previously retired twice before being traded from the Ravens to the Cowboys, totaled 81 tackles and a sack in 13 games played.


Jets DL Sheldon Richardson suspended four games
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson was suspended four games for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, the NFL announced Thursday.

“I apologize for letting down my family, teammates, this organization and the fans," Richardson said in a statement via the Jets, per Fox Sports. "However, words aren't enough. This is something that can only be addressed by how I handle myself from this point on. I don't want this to take away from what the team is trying to accomplish. While I won't be there at the start of the regular season, I will do whatever I can to support my teammates until I'm able to return to the field.”

Richardson, who was a 2013 first-round pick, is entering his third season in the NFL. He was the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2013 and was named to the Pro Bowl in 2014.

He has totaled 84 tackles and 11 1/2 sacks in 32 career games. He also has one safety.


Texans DT Brandon Ivory arrested on burglary charge
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(7/1/2015) Texans defensive tackle Brandon Ivory was arrested Wednesday morning in Alabama and charged with first-degree burglary, according to a Tuscaloosa Police Department report obtained by SportingNews.com.

Ivory and another man were allegedly involved in a home burglary when the two entered the residence by kicking open the back door and then demanding money from the residents. The two stole money and two Ipads from the residence. Ivory and the other suspect were arrested at their apartment shortly after the incident with the stolen money and property.


Embattled Brandon Spikes pleads guilty to leaving scene of crash
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/1/2015) Former Patriots and Bills linebacker Brandon Spikes has pleaded guilty to leaving the scene of a recent car crash and has received a fine and year of probation, per WBZ, which is further reporting that he has lost his license and will be forced to attend a driver's safety class.

Spikes has lost far more than his license. He has lost his livelihood, having been cut by New England for hitting another car and abandoning his vehicle on the highway. He later told the police that he had hit a deer.

No other teams have been rumored to be targeting Spikes for the coming season.


Terrelle Pryor ready to embrace new role with Browns
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Terrelle Pryor once declared that he could not play football if he could not play quarterback.

Reality has since set in.

Pryor has been cut twice and is now playing on a Cleveland Browns team desperate for a quarterback, but apparently not desperate enough to give him a shot. He is instead embracing what he is calling a "slash-player" role.

"I'm going to give (it) a chance," he told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "I just want to play football. I'm a playmaker, and I believe if I can touch the ball, I can go to the house, especially if I have space. This should definitely open up some opportunities."

Pryor has already taken the first step by contacting Steelers receiving stud Antonio Brown and making plans to work out with him and Randy Moss so they can teach him the nuances of the position.

He also figures there's another reason he's ahead of the game.

"The thing that helps me is that I played quarterback, and I know what the quarterback wants," Pryor said.


Lions new DT Haloti Ngata too busy to think about new contract
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Defensive tackle Haloti Ngata had his contract in mind in his last days with the Ravens, but he's too busy to think about it now that he's been traded to the Lions.

Ngata admitted that he suspected a deal could take place.

"The closer we got to free agency, I thought it could be a possibility," he told Monday Morning Quarterback. "It didn't surprise me ... since we weren't getting closer to any kind of contract stuff, I just figured there were a lot of things that could happen. I definitely started to have a trade in my mind as a possibility."

Ngata added that he's not thinking about a contract extension with Detroit.

"I'm just trying to get to know my teammates, get my playbook down, and my technique and terminology," he said.


Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon claims he'd pick himself in Fantasy
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6/30/2015) Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon doesn't have a Fantasy football team, but if he did...

"If ... I could take myself, I would," he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Never mind that Adrian Peterson has returned to the backfield. Never mind that Peterson has traditionally not yielded many carries to teammates. In 2012, for instance, he totaled 348 of his team's 401 rushing attempts.

The Vikings, however, are expected to use a more balanced approach in 2015. And McKinnon, who flashed as a starter with Peterson sidelined last season, is feeling dandy after undergoing lower back surgery in December.

"Two hundred percent," he declared in regard to his health. "If there is a 300, I feel 300. It's all good."

McKinnon averaged 4.8 yards per carry a year ago, which buoyed his confidence.


 
 
 
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