Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Fantasy & Reality: Anything but terrific

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Tom Brady has one game over 300 yards passing, three with two touchdowns, four straight with an interception and less than 10 Fantasy points in three of his last four (and just one on the year with over 20 Fantasy points).

Just in time for a date with a Steelers defense that's allowed five passing touchdowns and zero 300-yard passers through seven games.

Fantasy owners can't start Brady anymore "just because he's Tom Brady." Circumstances have changed. There's definitely something amiss with his right hand. His offensive line is depleted. His receiving corps isn't as qualified as it has been in the past. And all of this is showing up on film, in the stat book and in the Patriots' play calling.

FREE Draft Kits!
Mike Tolbert
Get everything you need to dominate on Draft Day in one convenient place with our Downloadable Draft Kit, complete with projections, rankings and outlooks for 2013!
Download your Draft Kit now!

Consider this: Two of Brady's passes that could have been good for at least 10 yards each were dropped last week with a third pass that should have counted for a 30-yard touchdown to Rob Gronkowski called back because of a holding penalty. If Gronk's touchdown stood and if those drops were caught, Brady would have finished with two touchdowns but still wouldn't have had 20 Fantasy points. He would have had 16 in a standard league, good enough for his highest total in four weeks.

Playcalling was especially a factor last week -- Brady officially attempted 22 passes and handed off 33 times, including a dozen times in the Pats' final 16 plays. To put it in perspective, it was the third time in his last 46 games including the playoffs that Brady didn't attempt at least 30 passes. Not that it would have helped him -- even in his games where he's thrown a bunch this season he's averaging 5.94 yards per attempt this year and has completed 55.7 percent of his passes. Christian Ponder has better numbers there.

Brady's mysterious hand injury seemingly wasn't a big factor last week, but it's something to monitor. Save for some long passes to the sideline, Brady's passes seemed fine but he stuck his hand into a warmer on his waist between plays. I don't know what that's about but it seemed awkward given the weather for the game was clear and 50 degrees. He didn't have the warmer in Week 7. It's very possible that the Patriots' run-heavy game plan -- namely in the first half -- was decided upon in part because of Brady's hand.

Protection was a factor last week and could be a big factor going forward. Brady was sacked three times by the Dolphins, twice after starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer got hurt (excluding a third sack wiped out by a Miami penalty). Losing Vollmer is a problem for New England but a leaky offensive line has been a factor all season -- Brady's been sacked 23 times through seven games including 16 times over the last four weeks. By comparison, he was sacked 14 times or less through seven games in each of the last four years.

And obviously his receiving corps has become a major factor. Danny Amendola looked like Wes Welker in Week 1 but has pretty much resembled, well, Danny Amendola in every other game. Kenbrell Thompkins has faded, Aaron Dobson needs to show more consistency and Julian Edelman is a nice slot receiver but not a consistent stat producer. None of these guys are game breakers, save for Gronkowski (and Amendola when he's healthy, and maybe Dobson someday).

So Fantasy owners with Brady should be nervous. The right plan of attack isn't to start Brady, especially this week against the Steelers (five passing touchdowns allowed) nor in two weeks at the Panthers (six passing touchdowns allowed).

The worst part about all of this is that Brady's history against the Steelers isn't so bad. In eight games including two playoff games, the Pats are 6-2 under Brady with the passer getting the equivalent of 20 or more Fantasy points in half of those games (and four of six wins). This is a Steelers scheme the Patriots are familiar with and have attacked in the past -- but there's some doubt about just how much they can manipulate it now.

Brady's matchups ease up in Week 12. Until then, a handful of good quarterbacks are out there for the taking:

Replacing Tom Brady
1. Jake Locker at STL, vs. JAC, vs. IND
2. Terrelle Pryor vs. PHI, at NYG, at HOU
3. Ben Roethlisberger at NE, vs. BUF, vs. DET
4. Ryan Tannehill vs. CIN, at TB, vs. SD

I like Locker the best -- he has posted two or more touchdowns in four straight games and has played great. A favorable schedule really helps him out. I could go either way on Big Ben and Pryor -- Pryor has more sizzle but both quarterbacks have one game this year with more than one touchdown (like Brady). Pryor has three games with 20-plus Fantasy points; Big Ben has one with more than 18 points. Tannehill would kill for a 20-point game but a decent schedule helps him out.

The idea of benching Brady is frustrating but you've lived with his results pretty much all season. If you're not going to bench him before a tough matchup, knowing he's not the same guy he's been (at least statistically), then at least you know what to expect.

Saint happens

Marques Colston and Darren Sproles have been freaking Fantasy owners out with their weak stat lines. While New Orleans has averaged 28.0 points and 396.0 total yards per game, the veteran duo has averaged 118.0 total yards per game and have three touchdowns combined.

Sproles' case is weird -- typically a guy who plays a little less than half a game, he's been reduced to under 25 percent of the Saints' total plays in two of the team's last three. That's not the only number out of whack -- he's had five carries or less in five straight, including no carries last week vs. Buffalo. And over his last three he has 13 catches on 19 targets, low for him. It feels like a lack of opportunities for Sproles, especially lately, and you just can't be a Fantasy stud without getting the ball on a regular basis.

Colston's problems are attributed to a lack of opportunities as well, but there's more to it than that. He has 40 targets on the season and hasn't made the most of them. His most recent target, a second-quarter bomb from Drew Brees, was pretty much on target but he sort of pulled up short on making the catch. He didn't get a sniff from Brees the rest of the game. Colston also looks as if he's not running at 100 percent, not gaining separation from defenders. Not that he was ever a speedy receiver but if you can't get open you can't get the ball. Colston has posted single digits in each of his last six and a single Fantasy point in each of his last three.

This is a good week to chill out on Sproles as the Jets' run defense is pretty stiff (not that he's getting many carries in the first place) and have handled running backs out of the backfield relatively well. It's tougher to suggest going in another direction from Colston because the Jets have treated receivers well. The matchup is really favorable but Colston has never been a beast outside of the Superdome. Two of 10 touchdowns last season came outdoors with only one 100-yard game. With his targets limited, it's probably best to treat him as a third receiver, nothing more.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: Josh Gordon would struggle with the Chiefs. For their first three possessions in Week 8, the Browns offense looked as expected. Then the magic of a flea-flicker changed the course of the game as Gordon hauled in a 39-yard touchdown on a perfectly-executed trick play. From then on the Browns played with confidence and the Chiefs defense struggled to contain them. The odds were stacked against Gordon -- he had seven Fantasy points or less in two of his last four games and was getting Jason Campbell as his quarterback. Well, he kicked butt -- and a huge amount of credit goes to Campbell, who looked good. It'll be hard to sit Gordon going forward.

Reality: Colin Kaepernick is warming up. 'Kap finally broke through the 19 Fantasy point barrier last week against the Jaguars. I suspect he's starting to get his groove back just in time for a Michael Crabtree return in about a month. If you're hurting at quarterback, now's the time to trade for Kaepernick since he's on a bye.

Fantasy: Marvin Jones is a one-week wonder. Catching four touchdowns in a single week is pretty tough to repeat, but catching touchdowns in consecutive games is also tough to do. Jones has done it for three straight weeks. He's been the key to Andy Dalton's sensational hot streak. The second-year wideout has eight red-zone targets and caught them all, seven for touchdowns. It's like he's this year's James Jones! Why wouldn't the Bengals bump up his playing time this week? I'd feel pretty good about starting him because defenses can't pay too much attention to him with A.J. Green on the other side of the field.

Reality: Andre Ellington should be the man in Arizona. After torching the Falcons, Cardinals coach Bruce Arians wouldn't commit to making Ellington his primary running back going forward nor giving him more touches going forward -- but he should. His concern is that Ellington isn't big enough to handle the position and doesn't want to give him more than, say, 40 snaps. It's depressing because we finally saw the rookie's potential and it's going to get stifled by Rashard Mendenhall. Hopefully Arians has a change of heart during the bye week.

Reality: Mike Tolbert is legit. Tolbert has scored five times in his last five games and 10 times in his last 10 games going back to last season. Almost as impressive is that he's found at least 10 touches in each of his last three games, a sign the Panthers don't mind using him beyond the goal line. But he's fun to watch celebrate in the end zone and I think the Panthers players get a kick out of him too. I wouldn't be shocked if he made it 11 for 11 this week against a decimated Falcons defense.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Cardinals' Thomas starts practice 'shaky,' finishes 'pretty strong'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:29 pm ET) Cardinals coach Bruce Arians indicated that Week 17 starting quarterback Logan Thomas was "shaky" at the beginning of Wednesday's practice but finished "pretty strong" as he developed an understanding of where to throw his passes, ESPN.com reports.

"He's worked, fundamentally, extremely hard and gotten much better," Arians said. "But putting those fundamentals to use in the offense, that's two totally different things."

Thomas has just three days of practice before facing the 49ers in a game that has the possibility of landing his team with a first-round bye with a win and help from other results.

"It wasn't the greatest, but as it went on, it got better and better," Thomas added. "It just comes with reps and comes with time."

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in San Francisco Sunday.


Seahawks' Russell Okung, Max Unger practice Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:07 pm ET) Seahawks left tackle Russell Okung (lung) practiced in full Wednesday, while center Max Unger (ankle) was able to return to practice in a limited fashion.

Okung is on track to return in Week 17 after missing last week's game with a bruised lung. Unger hasn't played in any of the team's last five game due to a high ankle sprain. The Seahawks will earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win Sunday, and it's possible Unger suits up for the crucial game.

The Seahawks are a 12 1/2-point favorite at home against the Rams in Week 17.


Raiders QB Derek Carr practices Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(6:39 pm ET) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr was able to practice Wednesday despite dealing with an illness.

"I got here early to work out and see how I would feel during that and after that and I felt pretty good," Carr said at a press conference Wednesday. "So, felt good at practice today, obviously not 100 percent but it felt good to practice and be out here."

Carr has been able to start every game for the Raiders this season, completing 58.6 percent of his passes while racking up 3,112 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Raiders are a 14-point underdog in Denver in Week 17.


Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman practices in full Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(6:32 pm ET) Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman was able to practice in full Wednesday for the first time since suffering a left foot injury on Nov. 9, ESPN.com reports.

"We've had a chance to watch him all week, participate and he's obviously further ahead than he was this time a week ago," head coach John Fox said after Wednesday's practice. "And the fact we're on grass, not on Astroturf, lot of variables, but I like what I see."

Hillman has been able to practice in a limited fashion during the last two weeks but hasn't been active on gameday since the injury occured. The Broncos are a 14-point favorite at home against the Raiders in Week 17.


Falcons RB Steven Jackson (quad) expected to miss Week 17
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(6:28 pm ET) Falcons running back Steven Jackson (quad) is not expected to play in Sunday's Week 17 matchup with the Panthers, ESPN.com reports.

Jackson missed practice Wednesday and the team promoted running back Jerome Smith from the practice squad. Jacquizz Rodgers and Devonta Freeman are expected to share the workload in the critical regular-season finale if Jackson is indeed sidelined.

The Falcons are a 4-point favorite at home against the Panthers.


49ers RB Carlos Hyde still sidelined
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:45 pm ET) 49ers rookie running back Carlos Hyde missed practice again Wednesday with an ankle injury. He sat out Week 16 and appears likely to miss Sunday's game against Arizona, too.

With Hyde out, veteran Frank Gore went off for 158 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries against San Diego. Gore should see another big workload against the Cardinals.


Michael Crabtree doesn't sound eager to return to 49ers
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:35 pm ET) Impending free-agent receiver Michael Crabtree was asked Wednesday if he wants to return to the 49ers next season. "It depends," Crabtree said, per the San Francisco Chronicle. "I don't even want to talk about it."

Crabtree is finishing up a disappointing season. He's played every game but has only 64 catches for 657 yards and four touchdowns, a far cry from the 85 grabs, 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns he put up in his last full season, 2012.


Ravens LT Eugene Monroe bothered by ankle injury
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:27 pm ET) Ravens starting left tackle Eugene Monroe, who hurt his ankle Week 16 against Houston, missed practice Wednesday, reports ESPN.com. His status is uncertain for the regular-season finale at Tennessee.

If Monroe can't play, undrafted rookie James Hurst likely would start, the website said.


Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe (shoulder) unable to practice
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:18 pm ET) Chiefs wideout Dwayne Bowe, who sprained his shoulder in last week's loss at Pittsburgh, was unable to practice Wednesday, reports ESPN.com. Bowe leads Chiefs wideouts with 57 catches for 724 yards.

Kansas City hosts San Diego on Sunday as a 3-point favorite.


Lions OC not concerned about Joique Bell's Achilles' injury
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:07 pm ET) Lions running back Joique Bell was limited in Wednesday's practice by an Achilles' injury, but offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi doesn't think the injury will hinder Bell in Sunday's pivotal game at Green Bay, reports ESPN.com. Bell has four rushing touchdowns in his past four games.

The Lions are 8-point underdogs Sunday in the game that will decide the NFC North.


 
 
 
Rankings