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Fantasy & Reality: Planning a playoff push

Senior Fantasy Writer
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It's been nine weeks. You know where you stand. Either you're all but locked into a playoff spot, still in the hunt for a playoff spot or dreaming up mythical scenarios where you somehow back into a playoff spot.

This is the week to begin preparing for the stretch run. Most Fantasy league playoffs begin in Week 14, so there's only four weeks left of Fantasy Football for everybody in a league. Hatching a plan for the final four weeks could make the difference in making the playoffs versus not making it, or getting the top seed versus being forced into a first-round game. There's even a plan if only to play spoiler and be a thorn in the side of your leaguemates, which might be the only joy you'll get for the rest of the way.

If you're 7-2 or better ...

I'd say the chances of winning a couple of more games and making the playoffs are really good, so it's time to think about what your roster will look like for the rest of the way.

• Bye-week prep is a no-brainer. Check the NFL schedule and make sure you have a good replacement for your starters who haven't had a bye yet.

• Insure your lineup. Many strong Fantasy teams have good depth already but do what you can to back up your best players. I like to carry at least one good receiver and at least two good running backs for the stretch run. You don't have to carry a second quarterback or tight end if the bye for your starter has passed already. The waiver wire will do it for you.

• Consider the 'cuffs. Handcuffing your running backs is also an option, but you don't have to do it. If you've got a premier talent like Jamaal Charles and stuck Zac Stacy on your bench at some point then you don't have to get Charles' handcuff (Knile Davis). But you could conceivably sell high on Stacy to further improve your lineup.

• Consider the schedule. Only teams with two feet in the playoff picture should look at the late-season schedule and start making plans for lineup in Weeks 15 and 16.

Teams with a favorable late-season schedule (Weeks 13-17):
49ers: STL, SEA, at TB, ATL, at ARI
Bills: vs. ATL, at TB, at JAC, MIA, at NE
Chiefs: DEN, at WAS, at OAK, IND, at SD
Cowboys: OAK, at CHI, GB, at WAS, PHI
Eagles: ARI, DET, at MIN, CHI, at DAL
Texans: NE, at JAC, at IND, DEN, at TEN
Titans: at IND, at DEN, ARI, at JAC, HOU

• Go from great to elite. If you have great depth then it's probably worth your while to seek a trade for an elite player to bolster your lineup. Teams on the playoff bubble might not like parting with elite-level types but if you can afford to "overpay" by offering a great package for their stud, particularly with players you wouldn't normally start because of a logjam in your lineup, then go for it.

• Don't ignore the kicker or DST spots. If there's room to improve at kicker or DST, do it. I like to use my league's stats to see which kickers have been hot lately and which DSTs have been on the rise. Then I cross-reference it with the NFL schedule to see which teams have favorable matchups the rest of the way and then make a decision. Playing the waiver wire for both isn't a bad way to go either but I'd just as well find dedicated starters I don't have to think about.

My 7-2 team

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I'm a game up on the rest of my 12-team league at 7-2, thanks to a five-game winning streak. I've gotten a little lucky because I'm not even in the Top 5 in the league in scoring but I'm still here. Losing Justin Blackmon last week hurt.

QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Steven Jackson
WR: Demaryius Thomas
WR: Pierre Garcon
TE: Rob Gronkowski
FLEX: Denarius Moore
K: Ryan Succop
DST: Panthers
Bench: Joique Bell, Andre Ellington, Donald Brown, Jeremy Kerley, Kenny Stills, Brandon Bolden

I'll admit this isn't your typical stud 7-2 team, so there's work to be done to stay competitive. One option would be to dangle Rob Gronkowski or Adrian Peterson in a trade, but if I've made it this far with them then I'd be a little foolish to let them go. I'm supposed to be the team getting elite players, not giving them up!

My bye-week problems end after Week 10 so there's only minimal roster maneuvering needed this week. Otherwise I'm going to spend my add/drop moves on running backs because that's the position I need the most help with. And because I am not loaded at running back it's really important I back up Peterson with Toby Gerhart in case of a disaster in Minnesota. That's a move I'm making this week.

If you're between 4-5 and 6-3 ...

Most people are hovering around .500 and therefore most people like you are in the playoff hunt. That's cool because it makes the games all the more important. But unlike the teams with a bunch of wins racked up, your team is living week to week. A bad loss or two and the season crashes.

• Play to win now, not later. I don't like the idea of stashing guys for late in the year if I don't have to. If you've been sitting on Percy Harvin or Shane Vereen and can make a deal to help your team win now, do it.

• Consider moving a stud player for two very good starters. I never like telling people to trade the likes of Jimmy Graham or Marshawn Lynch because they're no-brainer starters who typically deliver. But if dealing off one of them means filling two or three holes in your lineup with quality players (not run-of-the-mill guys) then it's worth thinking about. The elite teams in your league might have the depth to make a compelling offer for your stud. Accepting a big deal will ultimately depend on who you have and how many question marks you have in your lineup.

• Prepare for bye weeks, not for the late season. Obviously you need to fill lineup holes as the bye weeks progress but picking up players and trading for guys just because they play Jacksonville in Week 16 isn't consistent with staying focused on the here and now. Playing the waiver wire for DSTs and kickers is a good option for you.

My 4-5 team

The gang from Fantasy Football Today plays in a 12-team league together every year. I'm one of five teams at 4-5 staring up at another five teams in the standings. I consider myself fortunate to be here given that I have overcome losing Julio Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jermichael Finley, Andre Brown and Vick Ballard to injuries.

QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Mike Tolbert
WR: A.J. Green
WR: Terrance Williams
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Mike James
K: Mason Crosby
DST: Packers
BENCH: Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Bolden, Joseph Randle, Daryl Richardson, James Jones, Harry Douglas

My running backs are pretty grim so I've gone ahead and let the league know that Adrian Peterson is on the block. If I can land two good rushers for him I'm going to have to take it. A combo platter of DeMarco Murray and C.J. Spiller, Chris Johnson and Danny Woodhead or Alfred Morris and Zac Stacy could be in the works. It's that kind of a deal I am looking for.

Deal or no deal, you will find me making moves on waivers. Luckily I still have a high waiver claim and Chris Ivory is out there for the taking. Rashad Jennings and Shonn Greene are out there too, both of whom aren't lighting the world on fire but are better than some of the guys I have. Fixing my running back problem and doing a double-check on the backup quarterbacks out there (Eli Manning, Jay Cutler are out there) are all on my checklist.

If you're 3-6 or worse ...

No one likes admitting it's over, but if you have six losses with four games to play then it's probably over. I've rarely seen teams make the playoffs at 7-6 or 6-7.

But it's worse to quit. If I'm in a league with friends then I'm aiming to play spoiler. I don't mind spending a little time on my team if it means keeping some of my pals on their toes. I'm not going to go gung-ho over playing waiver-wire roulette with kickers or DSTs unless there's a too-good-to-be-true matchup out there (think Titans or Giants this week) but I will pluck good players off waivers.

There isn't much else to say here. Be a good sport and finish what you started. If anything, you'll pick up a couple more wins and razz your buds about keeping them out of the top playoff seed or out of the playoffs for the next six months.

Is Foles for real?

I spent a lot of time going over Nick Foles' game at Oakland last week simply because of his production. While there's no question he performed incredibly well, he got a huge assist from the Raiders defense -- and it's not the first time he got help from an underperforming unit.

The Eagles' break-neck pace was really good, it felt like they were working harder to push the plays out than in previous weeks and it showed because the Raiders were exhausted. It also appeared that Foles did significantly better busting up zone coverage compared to man coverage -- five of his seven touchdowns came in zone coverage and one of the two in man coverage was because a cornerback fell down on the play. The Raiders secondary was a mess -- safety Brandian Ross missed a number of assignments, cornerbacks fell down, rookie D.J. Hayden had a bad game and even Charles Woodson was out of position a couple of times.

Foles has belittled bad defenses, torching the Giants for 197 yards and two touchdowns in a half and pasting the Buccaneers for 296 yards and three touchdowns. But it's the one game he looked bad in -- a home game vs. Dallas -- that has Fantasy owners jittery. In that game the Cowboys effectively used a lot of man coverage, making the reads a little tougher for Foles, who overshot a number of open receivers as well as missed open men downfield.

As it stands, the Packers rank 21st in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, 20th in passing yards allowed (250.5 per game) and tied for 17th in passing touchdowns allowed (14). This isn't a great unit, but then again, neither were the Cowboys when they played Foles. Moreover, the Packers can and likely will do something the Giants, Bucs, Cowboys and Raiders all struggled to do against Foles: Pressure him. The Packers got close to hitting Josh McCown on Monday, getting him once, but had at least three sacks in the two games prior. Keeping Foles clean will be a big priority for the Eagles but they'll have their hands full doing so.

I'd bank on Foles having a good but not amazing game -- certainly good enough to start -- but it's not a slam-dunk. And that's probably a good thing since we thought he'd be a slam-dunk to dominate against the Cowboys and he underwhelmed. You shouldn't start him over other obvious quarterbacks but don't pass him up for guys who haven't been consistent either.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: The right plan of attack isn't to start Tom Brady against the Steelers. I've learned a lot this season, including the re-teaching of a very good lesson: Don't bet against Tom Brady. Naturally, had you bet against him over his previous four stinkers then you would have looked like a genius. But he mastered the Steelers, a defense he's done well against in the past (which I even mentioned last week but chose to ignore!). I think two huge keys for him was how wide open Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson got, a surprise given how efficient the Steelers were against receivers coming into the game. I really like the look of Dobson in this offense and think he's worth speculating on. As for the plan to bench Brady in Week 11 at Carolina ... scrap it.

Reality: Robert Griffin III makes me nervous. I'd carry a good backup Fantasy quarterback if I were counting on Griffin. He didn't take any wicked shots against the Chargers last week but he didn't run much, either. This dynamic two-way threat had one carry and one pass attempt over 11 plays the Redskins had inside the Chargers' 10-yard line last week. It's probably the best for his health and obviously Redskins fans aren't complaining, but it sure left his Fantasy owners in a lurch. We've seen Griffin put up big numbers just once in his last six games, making him a risky Fantasy option going forward, even in a favorable matchup at Minnesota this week.

Fantasy: Arian Foster was active on Sunday night but didn't play. Just to clarify, Foster did play Sunday vs. the Colts. He just happened to play two plays before leaving with a back injury. There's a rule I have when a player is made active for a game: If it's someone you normally rely on, you start him. You'll be burned more often than not if you don't. Foster was questionable going into the game and our colleague Jason La Canfora said on Fantasy Football Today Sunday morning that it "doesn't look good" for Foster, but the Texans made him active. So, you should have started him. I promise you, it wasn't in the Texans' plans to have him play two plays and then sit out. No team -- save for the 2004 Vikings with Randy Moss -- would dedicate an active spot on game day just to keep a starting streak alive. It just doesn't happen.

Now the concern is what his availability is like going forward. Remember how long he sat out of training camp with a back injury? He's got one again. Ben Tate is obviously the primary handcuff, but Dennis Johnson is the guy behind him and a potential roster stash in deeper leagues.

Reality: Ryan Mathews is a situational running back. Mathews was the first running back to run for over 100 yards in consecutive games this season. In the games he did it he had double-digit carries in the second half as a clock killer. On Sunday against the Redskins the Chargers were playing from behind and didn't need Mathews to eat up time. I would expect something similar this week when the Broncos come to San Diego but not the week after when the Chargers make another West-to-East trip to play Miami.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Vikings CB Terence Newman has familiarity with Mike Zimmer
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Vikings cornerback Terence Newman won't have a steep learning curve now that he's with his new team. 

Newman played under Vikings coach Mike Zimmer when he was the defensive coordinator with the Cowboys. Drafted in 2003, Newman learned Zimmer's defense from his rookie season through 2006, before Zimmer left to take the same position with the Falcons. 

“I just know exactly what to expect from him as a coach, as well as everybody else in this locker room,” Newman told the Vikings' website. “You play your best football under him.”

In his career, Newman has recorded 741 tackles and 37 interceptions. Entering his 13th NFL year, Newman has already impressed his teammates with voluntary workouts underway. 

“I met with him and he seemed like a great guy,” cornerback Xavier Rhodes said. “Like he’s going to come in and teach us what we need to know about the technique of the game and about the defense because he’s been in it before, so he’s going to help us out a lot. He’s a big asset to this team and the defense.”


Chiefs pick up option on NT Dontari Poe
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) The Chiefs have exercised their fifth-year option on two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Dontari Poe, per NFL.com. He is set in Kansas City through 2016, when he will earn $6.146 million.

The 350-pound Poe has earned the money. He racked up six sacks and contributed to 46 tackles in 2014.


Lions GM Mayhew OK with James Ihedigbo skipping workouts
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Safety James Ihedigbo was the lone absence from voluntary workouts this week for the Lions. But general manager Martin Mayhew understands. After all, Ihedigbo's agent has stated that he would not work without a new contract.

"I look forward to talking with James," Mayhew told ESPN. "I understand what he's going through. I've been through that myself as a player, when I felt that a time in my career that I was underpaid and I had to deal with that.

"So I have empathy for him. I understand what he's going through and I look forward to sitting down and talking with him. I have great respect for him as a player, as a man. I've gotten to know him a little bit away from football and I understand how he feels."

Mayhew declined to discuss whether the Liins will rework Ihedigbo's contract.

The 31-year-old Ihedigbo contributed 71 tackles and two sacks with a career-high four interceptions in 2014 despite missing three games at the start of the year with a nerve injury. He earned Pro Bowl alternate status.


Eagles withdraw qualifying offer to RB Chris Polk
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Running back Chris Polk is now a free agent. 

According to the NFL transaction wire, the Eagles rescinded their $1.6 million tender they offered this past March. The Eagles placed the tender on Polk, previously a restricted free agent, before signing both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews in free agency. 

With Darren Sproles on the roster, it didn't make much sense for Polk to stay with the Eagles. 

In 2014, Polk ran for 172 yards and four touchdowns. 


RB Bobby Rainey signs qualifying offer with Buccaneers
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) The Buccaneers have announced that running back Bobby Rainey has signed a one-year qualifying offer the team extended to him before the free agency period. He was a restricted free agent and was given an opportunity to negotiate with other teams.

Rainey will compete for playing time with Tampa Bay. He rushed for 406 yards in 2014, but faded at the end of the season with just two carries in the last six games combined.


Jaguars planning to play 2015 season without Justin Blackmon
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) As far as the Jaguars are concerned, Justin Blackmon will not be lining up at receiver for them this season. 

At least that's the approach Jacksonville is taking. Blackmon has been indefinitely suspended since Nov. 1 2013 for three violations of the substance-abuse policy under the old CBA.

"Our process hasn't changed," Caldwell said, via ESPN.com. "[We] plan to go without him, but if he emerges, he emerges, and he's going to go in with those top guys and compete with those other guys. Hopefully we're able to get some news, but if not we weren't planning on [having Blackmon]. We're just going to go [without him]."

Before he can re-join the Jaguars, he'll need to file an application for reinstatement, with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell making a decision within a 60-day window. The application letter would include details of the treatment he's received. 

Since being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Blackmon has only played in 20 games. He has 1,280 yards and six touchdowns in his career. 


Cowboys' Greg Hardy called 'woman beater' by teammate
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy got into an altercation with teammate Davon Coleman during a voluntary offseason workout, according to a report from Yahoo! Sports

Hardy reportedly questioned Coleman's work ethic during a conditioning drill, which led Coleman to call Hardy a "woman beater."

Hardy was accused of domestic abuse and was found guilty by a North Carolina judge. On the subsequent appeal, prosecutors dropped charges against Hardy and the case was never presented in front of a jury. 

Hardy has been suspended by the NFL for 10 games due to what transpired in that case. According to FOX Sports, the confrontation between Hardy and Coleman remained verbal


Lions and Rob Sims' representation haven't spoken in 3 weeks
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) The Lions need a left guard and Rob Sims would be a solid option if the two sides can strike a deal for the veteran to return. 

However, talks have stalled between the Lions' front office and Sims' representation. Speaking to reporters on Friday, Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said it's been nearly a month since he's spoken to Sims' camp. 

"We've had some discussion with Rob," Mayhew said, via MLive.com. "I spoke to his agent probably about three weeks ago and we had an offer out to him. That's kind of where we are right now. We'll have to kind of wait and see what happens."

The Lions could still opt to draft a lineman early to fill the position, too. 

Sims, who entered the NFL in 2006, has been with the Lions for the past five seasons. 


Andre Ellington OK with Cardinals drafting another running back
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) If the Cardinals decide to draft a running back in one of the higher rounds, running back Andre Ellington would be OK with it. 

Ellington was a three-down back for Arizona last year that got plenty of touches in the running and passing games. But if the Cardinals use a high pick on a running back, that could cut into Ellington's touches. 

That's something that wouldn't bother Ellington. 

“It’s whatever will better our team,” Ellington told the team's website. “That’s most important. No one is going to hate any decisions. I’m sure those guys will make the best decisions to help the team. We’ll accept any guy who comes in.”

Another quality runner could help Ellington, who dealt with numerous injuries a year ago, in the long run. His season ended last December after undergoing hernia surgery. 


Dolphins haven't decided if they'll extend Ryan Tannehill's contract
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Dolphins executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum said the club has yet to decide if it will extend quarterback Ryan Tannehill, according to the Palm Beach Post

The Dolphins could decide to pick up Tannehill's fifth-year option and wait on an extension. The deadline for doing so is May 3. Doing that would cost the Dolphins $15 million for the 2016 season. 

Previously, NFL.com reported that the Dolphins were hopeful that they could strike a long-term deal with Tannehill before Week 1 of the 2015 season. 

In 2014, Tannehill threw for 4,045 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.


 
 
 
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