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Fantasy & Reality: Who's sitting in Week 17?

Senior Fantasy Writer
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For the first time in a long time, Week 17 won't be the typical parade of backup players finishing the regular season. There are actually a lot of meaningful football yet to be played. Even if you don't play into Week 17, you can feel good about having a lot of fun games to watch.

In fact, there's exactly one game involving at least one playoff participant that isn't likely to feature starters. That's the matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers in San Diego.

Kansas City has locked into the AFC's No. 5 seed. They can't do any better or any worse. Twice before in Andy Reid's coaching history has he been in such a situation, and twice before he rested a number of starters. He rested starters for a game in 2001 and again in 2004 for not one game, but two. And in 2010, Reid also rested top playmakers in Week 17.

So go ahead and guess who's going to suit up in a track suit on Sunday? You'll probably see Jamaal Charles there, even if he is within 20 yards of 2,000 total on the year, and chances are pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali will also sit as they're very important defensive guys for the Chiefs. If Alex Smith plays it won't be for long, and if he sits then chances are Dwayne Bowe will also sit. In fact, Bowe hurt his neck last week but stayed in. Maybe he'll end up sitting out too.

This is all very good news for the Chargers, who are the only team in the NFL that will know their playoff fate before kickoff. If either the Ravens (at the Bengals) or the Dolphins (vs. the Jets) win, the Chargers cannot clinch a playoff berth. But it's highly unlikely the Chargers will call in their starters and play the backups if such a situation were to occur, so you'll probably see them play all out, which against a bunch of Chiefs backups isn't such a bad thing.

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Are there any other games where backups could see significant playing time and potentially cost Fantasy owners? It's always possible the teams with nothing to play for could do it, but it's rare. Teams with first-year head coaches like the Browns, Jaguars, Bills and even the Chargers could opt to "get a look" at some of their younger players, but it might not happen unless the game is out of hand. It's also possible we could see teams headed to the playoffs like the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Seahawks, Panthers and 49ers pull their starters once they feel they have wins secured. It's not nearly enough to consider sitting players from those rosters, but the key contributors could play three-and-a-half quarters instead of four.

All told, this is good news for those Fantasy leaguers who insist on playing all 17 weeks.

On running backs and Round 1

Much will be written about the benefits and pitfalls of taking a running back in the first round of a draft. On average in 2013, there were nine running backs drafted in Round 1. Of those nine, four finished in the Top 12 but none of the other five finished even in the Top 24! This year, you either nailed it with your first-round pick or you whiffed. There's no happy medium.

That shouldn't be a surprise given the nature of the position and how teams tend to use their backs. Nor should it be a surprise that the running backs that finished in the Top 12 this season will be on the radar for Fantasy owners picking in Round 1 next season, even though the turnover is so steep.

I'll never fight to take a running back with my top pick, but I will stand by this statement: Unless I can get a back with 20-touch potential including goal-line work or an elite difference-maker at receiver or tight end, I'm taking the safe way out. If that means getting a quarterback, even though the position is deep, then so be it.

There were a lot of people who drafted Trent Richardson or C.J. Spiller or any other bust first-round pick and still won the crown, but that's not the point. I don't want the headache of taking a back without the promise of a big workload and big stats when I can get a quarterback with weekly 30-plus-point potential, especially if it's someone in a weak division. We talk all the time about how Jimmy Graham is a differentiator among tight ends but won't say the same about Peyton Manning?

The reason for it is because it's easier to find a reliable quarterback off waivers than it is a reliable tight end. But it's also hard to find a player who consistently posted 20-plus Fantasy points with a number of games into the 30s, 40s and 60s. All things being equal, if I can't get my hands on a running back I feel really good about in Round 1, I'll wait until Round 2 to get him.

We already know there will be a minimum of seven running backs to start most drafts next year. All the big-ticket guys you've come to know as reliable "stud" workhorses will be there, and that list will include rookies from this year and a couple of veterans too. That will push any possible quarterback selections to the back of Round 1, which makes waiting for a running back a breeze since you'll pick again soon in Round 2. Starting a draft with Manning and Giovani Bernard or Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Mathews wouldn't be such a bad thing.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) from around the league.

Fantasy: The Chiefs are a dangerous team. You already know that Kansas City's offense is a lot of Jamaal Charles and a little bit of everyone else. The Chiefs a team that is not built to play from behind -- they need to stay in close games in order to come out ahead. The key to their defense is the play of pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. When they're on, the rest of the defense looks great. When they're out of not hot, their defense is absolutely pedestrian. I had a hard time coming to grips with that earlier this year but after watching the Colts take aim at them and benefit from their poor tackling, I just can't see this team getting far in the playoffs. Keep it in mind if you're in Playoff Challenge leagues that limit transactions.

Reality: Andy Dalton's success has come in threes, not fours, and has not come against the Ravens. For Dalton to do well this week in Fantasy he'd have to buck two trends: Play well for a fourth straight week and play well against a tough divisional opponent. Last year, Dalton had two stints with three-straight games with 25-plus Fantasy points before coming back down to earth in his next game. This year he's already had one trio of games with 30-plus points before fading, and has hit the 23-point mark in each of his last three. Asking for a fourth against a defense that has not only allowed just four quarterbacks to post 20-plus points against them this season but one he's never had 20-plus points against in his career seems just too risky.

Fantasy: The Cowboys are doomed without Tony Romo. I've seen a lot of Kyle Orton's games and while I won't call him a great quarterback he certainly isn't nearly as bad as 90 percent of the backup passers out there. Dallas' decision to pay him to back up Romo will come in handy this week as he'll at least give them a chance to win against Philadelphia. Orton has a 81-to-57 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt throughout his career. When he was at the helm of the Broncos back in 2010 he had some downright awesome games thanks to a very good group of receivers. I'd give him a chance in this one -- he's not a horrible replacement for Romo owners in Week 17.

Reality: The Fantasy game can be improved upon. One of the best parts about writing about Fantasy has been the overall simplicity of how you keep score. You're either in a standard league or a PPR, your passing touchdowns are worth either 4 or 6. We all tend to keep track of players the same way and follow the same basics as it comes to lineups.

I'm starting to wonder if we as game players are ready to start branching out into new scoring systems and sets of rules. More two-quarterback leagues with the rise of so many good passers. More points for the little things like breaking tackles, first downs, longer field goals and players winning their real-life games. More roster flexibility including automatic in-game replacements from the bench in case of an injury to a starter (real life coaches can replace players when they get hurt, why can't we?). The game is already evolving as more and more people get into PPR leagues and dynasty/keeper formats. It's only a matter of time before we start asking more from our commissioners to make the game even more fun.

Reality: The Fantasy season isn't over. It's never over. It took me three years as a frustrated Fantasy loser back in 2000 to realize that if I really wanted to win at Fantasy Football I needed to pay attention year-round. Ever since then Fantasy Football has been a 12-month-a-year game for me. I might not draft (much) between now and late August but keeping up with the news, the coaching carousel and the numbers from last year and what they might project out to in 2014 is vital if you want to dominate. If only there was a website that treated Fantasy like the year-round obsession it's become.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Chargers OLB Melvin Ingram sheds 20 pounds
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:50 am ET) Chargers outside linebacker Melvin Ingram is sporting a different body these days.

During the offseason, Ingram changed his eating habits and dropped 20 pounds — going from 266 to 246. Ingram stopped eating beef and pork, electing to consume chicken, fish, vegetables, fruit and rice. He's no longer eating breads, pastas or potatoes either. 

"Being at 260 or 265, 266, wasn't working, really," Ingram told the San Diego Union-Tribune. "I felt quick but I kept getting injured. You've got to nitpick at your own body, your own self, your own game. ... I felt like playing lighter would be a better thing for me. The lighter you are, the less stress it is on your body, the less stress it is on your knees, your hips, your joints or your ankles, your toes — everything."

Ingram now only has a body fat of eight percent and underwent a new training program while away in Miami. Now, Ingram said he feels ready to show what he can do on the football field this season. 

"I feel it's going to be a whole different explosion, a whole different Melvin," Ingram said. "I feel like that 260-Melvin is gone."


Report: Tom Brady appeal won't be heard by Wednesday
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/25/2015) Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's appeal won't be heard by Wednesday, the Associated Press reported, citing sources. 

Brady is appealing his four-game suspension as a result of the investigation into deflated footballs prior to the AFC Championship Game. 

The NFL collective bargaining agreement requires appeals to be heard within 10 days, a window that expires on Wednesday. As of Monday, no hearing had been scheduled. 

Appeals can be heard after the 10-day window, if the league and players union agree to extend the deadline, which is likely to occur in the Brady case. 


Falcons could be without Beasley, Reed when OTAs start
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5/25/2015) The Falcons could be without two key components of their defense when OTAs start this week.

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter, first-round pick Vic Beasley and free-agent signee Brooks Reed may not be present when voluntary practices kick off.

Beasley has yet to sign his rookie contract, which could keep him away from the team's facility. Reed is dealing with a groin injury that could keep off of the practice field.

Reed's absence is understandable due to to it being an injury. Beasley, however, is a different issue since there is little to negotiate due to the rookie wage scale. 

The remaining draft picks the Falcons selected have signed. 


Bears release troubled DT Ray McDonald after second arrest
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5/25/2015) The Bears have announced that they have released troubled defensive tackle Ray McDonald, the Chicago Tribune has reported.

McDonald was arrested in California for domestic violence and child endangerment. It marked his second arrest in six months. He received the same fate in December for sexual assault and domestic violence before signing with the Bears in the offseason.

The 30-year-old McDonald has been a full-time starter in the NFL since 2008. He was an All-Pro in 2011.


Chargers S Eric Weddle not expected to attend OTAs
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(5/25/2015) Chargers safety Eric Weddle is not expected to attend Tuesday's start of offseason training activities as he and the team remain far apart on talks for a contract extension, per NFL.com. 

Weddle is in the final season of his deal, but has been extremely vocal about his desire to have a new contract in place before taking part in team activities. Weddle contributed to 114 tackles last season and has averaged 103 over his last seven years.

While attendance is voluntary, Weddle's absence could mark the start of a long stalemate between the parties. 


Broncos' Tevrin Brandon hit by car, suffers minor injuries
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/25/2015) Broncos cornerback Tevrin Brandon was hospitalized on Sunday after getting hit by the car while crossing the street, the team confirmed to the Denver Post.

Police believe that Brandon was struck by a Ford F-150 pickup in Belmar, New Jersey. The driver then fled the scene. 

Brandon suffered minor injuries and was relesaed from the hospital after a brief stay. He's expected to participate in Broncos' OTAs, which start on Wednesday. 


Report: Bears DT Ray McDonald arrested for domestic violence
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(5/25/2015) According to NBC Bay Area reporter Damian Trujillo, Bears defensive tackle Ray McDonald has been arrested for domestic violence and possible child endangerment in California. No other information has been made available.

McDonald, who was released by the 49ers last December after being arrested in the second of separate sexual assualt and domestic violence cases, signed with the Bears in the offseason and said he was planning to sue the accuser in one of his sexual assault charges. 


Report: Vikings' Adrian Peterson won't attend OTAs on Tuesday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(5/24/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is reportedly set to skip organized team activities on Tuesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Peterson is frustrated with management in Minnesota for not showing him support through his legal case for child abuse. Peterson has not participated in any offseason activities so far, but skipping Tuesday's workout will cost him $250,000 in bonuses if he does not attend 90 percent of OTAs and minicamps.

Peterson has three years, $44.25 million left on his contract with Minnesota.


Cardinals S Tyrann Mathieu finally cast-free
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(5/24/2015) After a couple of injury-plagued seasons, Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu enters training camp almost completely healthy, without a brace on his knee or cast on his thumb, per NFL.com. 

The Cardinals will need a healthy Mathieu to offseason the loss of former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. In two seasons, Mathieu has 100 tackles and three interceptions but has been hampered by nagging injuries. 

"It just feels good to be free," he said. 


Giants' Bennett Jackson making transition to safety
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(5/23/2015) Giants second-year cornerback Bennett Jackson is spending the offseason transitioning to safety. 

"At the end of the day, I’m a DB,’" Jackson said, per the New York Post. "I think my strengths are cover skills, I got good speed and I got good ball skills. The thing it’s gonna take for me to get out there and make an impact is, I just got to learn the defense and really just communicate the calls fluently."

"It is all in front of him," coach Tom Coughlin said. "We think he can cover. He has done a good job of getting us lined up and then we will see how he plays."


 
 
 
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