Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Consistency Breakdown: Running backs

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Consistency Breakdowns: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

There probably aren't many running backs that come to mind when you think about consistent Fantasy players. Longevity isn't a common thread among rushers and when they do go down they're easy to replace (right, Tampa Bay?).

While this is the case, Fantasy owners have long believed that great running backs are a huge key to winning league titles. It's not necessarily true but it's still important to have strong running backs as part of the Fantasy game. Finding the right one, even in Round 1, is not a sure thing. Take note: Over the last seven seasons, there have been no fewer than four and no more than six running backs who finished as Top 12 options in consecutive years. The turnover is more than 50 percent year-over-year. That's not good -- and maybe enough reason to take another position in Round 1.

Now, while there's a perception that running back production took a major dip in Fantasy last year, the reality is that it didn't. Not unless you consider one-tenth of a Fantasy point a major dip. In 2012 the Top 12 running backs averaged 13.4 Fantasy points per game. That number was 13.3 in 2013, essentially remaining the same. There were 334 times a running back had 10-plus Fantasy points in 2012 -- and in 2013 there were 338. In business that's called "flat growth."

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

We're going to have a lot of time to determine the best plan of attack for running backs this season. For now, let's focus on those that hit the 10-point barrier. The equivalent of 100 rush yards or a touchdown and 40 yards, 10 Fantasy points is a positive result for a Fantasy rusher. It's a number Jamaal Charles exceeded in 13 of 15 games this season. It doesn't get any better than that, and unfortunately it's pretty rare.

Finding players who had sneaky-good consistency versus those who posted a lot of Fantasy points but weren't reliable from week to week is an important exercise. If anything, it helps paint a picture of who to go after and who to pass on in drafts next summer. But it also shows the backs that were good enough to rely on week after week alongside those who weren't as good.

Consistent: Knowshon Moreno

Fantasy point average: 13.8 over 16 games / 10+ points: 11 of 16 games (68.8 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 5 22 3 14 20 28 10 18 0 10 7 28 14 16 4 9 12 220

Moreno continued a trend that Fantasy owners have long recognized: The main running back behind Peyton Manning has a great chance at putting up numbers. Moreno accomplished just that, finishing as not only the fifth-best running back in Fantasy in 2013, but also the fifth-most consistent. It's easily his best season as a pro, salvaging his career just in time to get a new contract. Moreno's the kind of back most will look at as "old" (he'll be 27 next summer) and unlikely to repeat his big numbers in 2014. But if the Broncos give him a financial commitment this offseason then he'll absolutely be a part of that offense -- and that could mean more steady statistics.

Consistent: Le'Veon Bell

Fantasy point average: 12.3 over 13 games / 10+ points: 8 of 13 games (61.5 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 0 0 0 19 0 5 9 10 13 14 8 9 19 7 16 16 15 160

Would you believe that Bell's 11 games with 10-plus Fantasy points could have been so much more? Not only did Bell miss three games with an injury, but he also had two games with nine points, missing out on double digits by seven rush yards and two receiving yards in Weeks 7 and 12! Bell proved to be a solid lead back with good receiving skills (45 catches as a rookie). Between that and his impressive 96.8 total yards per game average, Bell is ticketed for a first-round pick in drafts next summer with the hope he can become more consistent than he was as a rookie.

Consistent: Frank Gore

Fantasy point average: 10.4 over 16 games / 10+ points: 10 of 16 games (62.5 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 12 2 10 19 14 10 22 17 0 10 4 3 8 11 8 15 1 166

Gore finished tied for 10th in consistency while falling just eight points shy of being a Top 12 running back. Not bad for a 30-year-old with over 2,200 career carries. While Gore was consistent, he also wasn't an overachiever. Of all the backs with at least 10 games with 10-plus points, Gore averaged the fewest amount of Fantasy points per game with 10.4. He also averaged 4.1 yards per carry -- his lowest rushing average in his career believe it or not -- while catching just 16 passes, second-lowest in his career. As he gets older and the 49ers become even more versatile, it's going to be tough to expect another solid season from Gore.

Consistent: Ryan Mathews

Fantasy point average: 10.9 over 15 games / 10+ points: 11 of 15 games (73.3 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 11 5 5 10 0 10 17 0 3 11 13 12 9 19 18 17 15 175

A lot of people will point to Mathews and say he "finally broke out." Not true. Mathews finished as a Top 12 rusher in 2011 and actually had as many total touchdowns as a rookie as he had in 2013. Mathews just got a lot of opportunities -- 285 carries is far and away a career high. The 11 games with 10-plus points is also a career-high -- he had just one last year and nine in his 2011 season. Kudos to Mike McCoy and the Chargers, who found a way to use him very effectively. It figures to be another good year in 2014, if he re-signs with the Bolts.

Inconsistent: Chris Johnson

Fantasy point average: 11.8 over 16 games / 10+ points: 7 of 16 games (43.8 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 7 9 9 3 13 5 16 0 29 5 20 7 15 8 15 9 19 189

Here's the three-year trend with Johnson: He's struggles in his first six games before playing better in his final 10. From 2011-13, he's averaged 6.8 Fantasy points per game in his first six, 12.4 in his last 10. That formula has helped him put up just enough stats to finish as a Top 20 Fantasy running back in each of his last three seasons, and a Top 12 guy each of his last two. In 2013, he finished three games with nine Fantasy points, the most of any running back. So if he had posted four more rush yards in Week 2, 10 more in Week 3 and another 10 in Week 16, he would have had 10 games with 10-plus, making him far more consistent. By now you'll know what you're getting with him, making him a decent No. 2 option, depending on where he plays and what his role winds up being.

Inconsistent: Maurice Jones-Drew

Fantasy point average: 8.9 over 15 games / 10+ points: 7 of 15 games (46.7 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 4 2 11 2 8 13 4 11 0 13 9 20 13 12 0 6 6 134

On average, MJD was the 16th running back taken on Draft Day and he finished as the 19th. That's not too horrible. Seven games with eight Fantasy points or less? That's kind of horrible. But it was also somewhat expected after Jones-Drew hurt his foot last season and played with a drab Jacksonville offense this year. He had seven games with 10-plus Fantasy points but just one with more than 13 -- that's as many as he had last season when he played only five games. No doubt the arrow is pointing down on Jones-Drew, particularly since his future is very much in flux this offseason.

Inconsistent: Alfred Morris

Fantasy point average: 10.0 over 16 games / 10+ points: 8 of 16 games (50.0 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 8 11 13 7 0 14 9 15 18 13 9 5 10 3 5 14 6 160

Last year, Alf was good for a 10-point game 75 percent of the time. This year he did it half the time, a disappointing drop-off for one of the league's young runners. Some obvious factors: Morris had 59 fewer carries and six fewer touchdowns in 2013. Considering that his rushing average was still a very strong 4.6 yards per game, that left about 300 yards on the sideline. That could have come in handy. The good news is that if new Redskins coach Jay Gruden sticks with his philosophies from his days with the Bengals, then Morris should have a stranglehold on the goal-line job.

Inconsistent: Pierre Thomas

Fantasy point average: 7.4 over 16 games / 10+ points: 3 of 16 games (18.8 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 5 3 5 3 20 5 0 8 8 22 7 12 2 2 8 0 8 118

Thomas might have been the best Saints running back, but he still left his Fantasy owners wanting more. Thomas had three games with 10-plus Fantasy points and seven with five points or less. Worse yet, the downturn in Thomas' numbers came with a big improvement in touches -- Thomas led all running backs with 77 catches while getting a career-tying 147 carries. Despite the career-high 224 touches, he averaged a weak 3.7 yards per carry (second-worst of his career) and 6.7 yards per catch (a career-low). He didn't have a single run of over 20 yards and only five receptions good for 20-plus yards. Is Thomas' ability fleeting as he turns 30 next December? If so, then the Saints could balk at paying him over $2.5 million for next season.

Consistency Rankings
Rank Player GP FPTS/gm 10+ Consistency Rank Player GP FPTS/gm 10+ Consistency
1 Jamaal Charles 15 19.67 13 86.7% 14 Adrian Peterson 14 13.86 8 57.1%
2 Matt Forte 16 15.69 13 81.3% 14 Reggie Bush 14 12.43 8 57.1%
3 Eddie Lacy 14 14.14 11 78.6% 16 Alfred Morris 16 10.00 8 50.0%
4 LeSean McCoy 16 16.38 12 75.0% 16 Shane Vereen 8 10.00 4 50.0%
5 Ryan Mathews 15 11.67 11 73.3% 16 Doug Martin 6 8.50 3 50.0%
6 Marshawn Lynch 16 14.00 11 68.8% 19 Maurice Jones-Drew 15 8.93 7 46.7%
6 Knowshon Moreno 16 13.75 11 68.8% 20 Steven Jackson 11 9.55 5 45.5%
8 DeMarco Murray 15 12.67 10 66.7% 21 Chris Johnson 16 11.81 7 43.8%
8 Arian Foster 6 13.50 4 66.7% 21 Joique Bell 16 9.44 7 43.8%
10 Fred Jackson 16 10.94 10 62.5% 21 Giovani Bernard 16 9.31 7 43.8%
10 Frank Gore 16 10.38 10 62.5% 24 Rashad Jennings 15 8.47 6 40.0%
12 Le'Veon Bell 13 12.31 8 61.5% 24 Darren McFadden 10 7.30 4 40.0%
13 Zac Stacy 12 12.50 7 58.3%

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Report: C.J. Spiller to be pursued by multiple teams in free agency
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:33 am ET) Running back C.J. Spiller is set to become a free agent soon and made it clear Tuesday he won't be returning to Buffalo.

Spiller is reportedly set to have multiple suitors, including the Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins and 49ers, according to Josina Anderson of ESPN. 

Spiller played in just nine games in 2014 with a shoulder injury, finishing with 300 yards on 78 carries and 125 yards on 19 receptions, scoring just one touchdown.


Report: Wide receiver Ted Ginn to visit with 49ers Wednesday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. is reportedly scheduled to visit with the 49ers Wednesday, according to ESPN. Ginn, who was released by the Cardinals last month, reportedly visited with the Titans as well Tuesday.

Ginn Jr. caught 14 passes in 2014 for 190 yards. He was a member of the 49ers from 2010-2012, where he totaled 33 catches for 384 yards and one touchdown. He also averaged 23.5 yards per return in those three seasons.


Report: Kendall Langford visiting Jets, Saints
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) Free agent DT Kendall Langford finished his visit with the Lions. The Jets and Saints are the next two scheduled stops on his tour, according to ESPN's Nick Wagoner

Langford was released by the Rams last week. 


C.J. Spiller: 'I won't be returning to Buffalo'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) Impending free-agent running back C.J. Spiller said Tuesday that he will not return to the Bills, who reportedly have a deal in place to acquire Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, the NFL Network reports.

"I won't be returning to Buffalo," Spiller said.

Spiller indicated in February in an interview on Sirius XM radio that he wanted to remain in Buffalo but that his fate was up to the team. He played in just nine games in 2014 due to a stint on injured reserve caused by a shoulder injury. Spiller finished with 300 yards on 78 carries and 125 yards on 19 receptions, scoring just one touchdown.


Bills to trade Kiko Alonso to Eagles for LeSean McCoy
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) The Bills intend to trade linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Eagles for running back LeSean McCoy, CBSSports.com NFL Insider Jason La Canfora confirms. ESPN first reported the news of the trade, which will be a one-for-one deal.

The trade will become official next week, but the Bills have notified Alonso, who was looking to leave Buffalo, that he will be dealt.

Alonso had 159 tackles for the Bills in 2013 but missed all of last season after undergoing successful surgery to repair a torn ACL in July. He said in late February that he expected to be 100 percent before the beginning of camp. The trade reunites Alonso with Eagles coach Chip Kelly, who was his coach at Oregon.

La Canfora added that McCoy may not be pleased with the deal. The Eagles are looking to clear cap space, possibly for a draft day trade for a quarterback. Kelly was reportedly not a fan of McCoy's contract. The running back has a $10.25-million cap hit for 2015.

McCoy has delivered four 1,000-yard rushing seasons in the last five years, most recently rushing for 1,319 yards and five touchdowns in 2014. The Bills have had just one player top 1,000 yards rushing in the last five years.

>> Want more NFL offseason? >> Mock drafts | Free agency tracker


Titans claim Jonathan Massaquoi off waivers, cut Bernard Pollard
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) The Titans have claimed free agent linebacker Jonathan Massaquoi off waivers and released safety Bernard Pollard, the team announced Tuesday.

Massaquoi totaled 22 tackles and two sacks in 15 games for the Falcons in 2014. Pollard was expected to be cut by the team after requesting his release earlier in the week. He suffered an Achilles tear in October, limiting him to just five games in 2014.


Report: Eagles plan to release defensive end Trent Cole
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) The Eagles are planning to release long-time defensive end Trent Cole within the next 24 hours, according to ESPN's Adam Caplan. 

Cole, who has played his entire 10-year career in the league with Philadelphia, was reportedly attempting to re-negotiate his contract to remain with the team. Cole was set to make $11.6 million in base salary and would save the Eagles $8.4 million in cap room.

Cole totaled 52 tackles in 2014 with 6 1/2 sacks. In his 10 years, Cole amassed 85 1/2 sacks.


Raiders release longtime safety Tyvon Branch
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) The Raiders made it official, announcing the release of safety Tyvon Branch. The 28-year-old played seven seasons with Oakland and registered more than 100 tackles three times.

Injuries limited Branch to five games over the past two seasons.

>> Want more NFL offseason? >> Mock drafts | Free agency tracker


Report: Greg Hardy to meet with NFL brass Wednesday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy is scheduled to meet with NFL officials in New York on Wednesday about domestic violence charges against him that were dropped, a league source told the Charlotte Observer. Misdemeanor charges against Hardy were dismissed when prosecutors could not locate Hardy's accuser to testify against him in a jury trial, the paper said.

Hardy will become a free agent March 10, and potential suitors "will want to know if and for how long Hardy will be suspended," the report said.

Hardy had 26 sacks in 2012-13 before playing in one game last season. The NFL put him on the Commissioner's Exempt List after Hardy was found guilty by a judge last summer of assaulting and threatening his ex-girlfriend.

>> Want more NFL offseason? >> Mock drafts | Free agency tracker


Report: DeMarco Murray may give Cowboys a hometown discount
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/3/2015) Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray will hit the free agent market on March 10. ESPN's Ed Werder reported that Murray wants to return to the Cowboys, and he's willing to re-sign if they come close to what other teams offer. 

Murray made $1.4 million last season and rushed for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns. 

>> Want more NFL offseason? >> Mock drafts | Free agency tracker


 
 
 
Rankings