Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Consistency Breakdown: Wide receivers

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Consistency Breakdowns: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

It might seem like receivers are becoming a bigger part of Fantasy Football, but it's not really happening.

Example: In 2012 there were 407 times where a wideout posted 10 or more Fantasy points in a standard league. That number dipped to 386 in 2013 -- and sure, that is a big number when you think about it, but also think about every team having (at least) four receivers and playing 16 games. Scores of opportunities for receivers to put up points and it's not happening often enough.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

Maybe that's unfair to say. It's happening enough -- just not in a consistent manner. Consistency is an issue at every position and it's what makes the studs so great. Of the 386 times a receiver had 10-plus Fantasy points, they repeated the feat in their very next game just 112 times, a 29 percent rate. That's ugly, but it comes with a silver lining: 54 of the 112 back-to-back 10-point performances were done by Top 12 receivers and 79 of the 112 two-fers -- a cool 70.5 percent -- were done by Top 24 receivers. Those percentages are on par with what players had, be it in the Top 12, Top 24 or overall in 2012.

Studs being studs. It just might be the evidence you need to take two receivers with your first four picks ... if not first three picks ... if not first two picks.

In Fantasy there's always the allure of the boom-or-bust player, a guy who can dominate a game and score 20-plus points or collapse with a two-catch, 24-yard game. Some believe a Fantasy team full of boom-or-busters can help propel them to victory week after week just on the strength of three of four players coming through. Others gravitate toward consistent receivers who can deliver a nice amount of Fantasy points from week to week.

However you want to slice it, we're taking a look back at the wideouts who were consistent and those who might have earned the stigma of boom-or-bust types.

Consistent: Larry Fitzgerald

Fantasy point average: 9.1 over 16 games / 10+ points: 9 of 16 games (56.3 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 20 3 6 12 4 15 1 10 bye 2 12 17 13 15 4 1 11 146

Fitzgerald didn't quite match expectations in 2013 given where he was drafted (30th overall on average) but still was among the Top 10 receivers in terms of consistency (yes, really). That's pretty much the only positive Fitzgerald has -- even with nine games over 10-plus Fantasy points, he averaged less than 10 points over the season and really bombed out in the seven games he didn't get double digits in, gaining no more than six points in them. It's been a tough two years for Fitzgerald -- he didn't even have 100 points total in 2012 because of the Cardinals quarterback woes and got only a mild bump this year because of Carson Palmer, who played behind a mediocre offensive line all season. He has just 20 plays of 20-plus yards in his last two seasons and doesn't have 1,000 yards in each of his last two years. Time might be running out on him to return to elite form in Fantasy.

Consistent: Wes Welker

Fantasy point average: 13.0 over 13 games / 10+ points: 7 of 13 games (53.8 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 16 9 14 19 10 12 9 14 bye 2 7 3 3 12 DNP DNP DNP 130

It was very much a tale of two halves for Welker in 2013 as he averaged 12.9 Fantasy points per game in his first eight, 5.4 in five games in his last five with three missed games. A pair of concussions really did in his season -- the first one in Week 11, the second in Week 14. And after scoring eight touchdowns in his first six games, Welker had two in his last 10. The combination of two concussions and his declining role following the Broncos bye week suggests he won't be as big a hero to Fantasy owners again in 2014. That's a tough pill to swallow since Welker has finished as a Top 24 receiver in each of the last six years.

Consistent: Julio Jones

Fantasy point average: 13.0 over 5 games / 10+ points: 4 of 5 games (80.0 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 11 24 11 10 9 bye DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 65

Josh Gordon might have been the receiver Fantasy owners fell in love with in 2013 but one guy, and only one guy, was more consistent in the games he played. That would be Jones, who had at least nine Fantasy points in every game and 10-plus in four of five. Would Jones have kept it up if he played all 16 games? Probably not, but one could reason he would pick up double digits in the 71 percent of games Gordon had, particularly with his red-hot start. Jones is on track to rejoin the Falcons long before the start of training camp and should be considered a cinch Top 30 pick.

Consistent: Randall Cobb

Fantasy point average: 11.8 over 6 games / 10+ points: 4 of 6 games (66.7 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 16 18 5 bye 10 5 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 17 71

Like Jones, an injury cut down Cobb's chances to be a dominant Fantasy contributor in 2013. But also like Jones, he was very helpful when he was healthy. Cobb ranked in the Top 5 in consistency with 10-plus points in four of the six games he played in. He had 49 targets on the year, including the postseason. It actually branches out to an average of 1.9 targets per quarter played (he played nearly one half in the game he got hurt in Week 6 vs. Baltimore). That's up there with the elite target receivers in football. Now is not a bad time to remind you he led the Packers in targets last year with 112, catching 76.8 percent of them (he caught 67.4 pct. in 2013). Cobb should be on your wish lists next year and might even come at a bargain price in drafts and auctions.

Inconsistent: Eric Decker

Fantasy point average: 11.7 over 16 games / 10+ points: 6 of 16 games (37.5 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 3 8 19 8 12 5 21 4 bye 5 7 0 41 17 4 25 8 187

Decker posted career highs in catches (87) and yards (1,288) while landing double-digit touchdowns for the second year in a row. Not bad for a guy headed for a pay day. But you'd think a guy who averaged 11.7 Fantasy points per game would be more reliable in standard leagues. But he had just six games with double-digit Fantasy points in 2013, down from eight in 2012. Games like the ones he had in Weeks 7 and 13 when he combined for five touchdowns and 324 yards along like the ones he had in Weeks 1 and 12 (three grabs for 37 yards total) basically cemented him as a boom-or-bust type rather than a steady choice. Decker's an easy pick to make as a second receiver, even with the inconsistency, if he stays in Denver. But if he moves on and doesn't have the brainac quarterback and multiple teammates to draw coverage away from him, I don't see Decker as even a Top 20 option.

Inconsistent: T.Y. Hilton

Fantasy point average: 8.3 over 16 games / 10+ points: 5 of 16 games (31.3 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 2 12 1 4 26 4 2 bye 30 13 4 3 4 0 7 5 15 132

Man, we really missed the boat on this guy. A preseason favorite for just about everyone, Hilton had just five games with 10-plus Fantasy points and only one instance of back-to-back double-digit games. He especially seemed lost when the Colts lost Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL -- once Wayne was out of it Hilton had just two starts with 10-plus Fantasy points. It took until the end of the year and into the postseason for Hilton to really break out as a fantastic stand-alone threat. Getting at least 100 yards in each of his last three including two playoff games, Hilton totaled 28 catches on 39 targets for 482 yards and two touchdowns. So which guy will we get in 2014: The one who struggled for much of 2013 or the one who was a post-Christmas miracle for the Colts? You'll hear plenty about how Hilton looks great in camp and how the Colts offense will branch out this offseason, but if we really see it in practices and the preseason then Hilton's draft status will come close to mirroring what we saw in 2013, when he was taken 79th overall on average.

Inconsistent: Torrey Smith

Fantasy point average: 8.3 over 16 games / 10+ points: 4 of 16 games (25.0 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 9 8 9 22 12 1 6 0 7 10 9 7 15 3 6 6 2 132

Smith had his opportunity to grab the spotlight in Baltimore and even had the targets to shine, but he didn't deliver. Finishing with a 16th-best 138 targets, Smith continued a disappointing trend in catching less than half of them -- only he and Vincent Jackson were among the Top 30 receivers who caught 50 percent or fewer of their targets in 2013. That lack of production meant only four games with double digits in Fantasy points. But he still had a career-high 1,128 yards even with two games over 100 yards and five games under 60 yards. Maybe there's some optimism here since Smith had three games with nine Fantasy points (almost 10), but even if you gave him credit for those he still had only 13 occurrences over his last 32 games. For a receiver in his second and third seasons, that's not so good. Smith might not be the stud receiver we hoped he'd become.

Inconsistent: Marques Colston

Fantasy point average: 7.9 over 15 games / 10+ points: 4 of 15 games (26.7 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 12 6 7 9 1 1 bye 1 DNP 16 8 4 2 24 15 6 6 118

Before this year, Colston was considered one of the most consistent receivers in Fantasy. He had posted 1,000 yards in each of the six seasons where he played at least 12 games and had eight or more scores in five of those years. But in 2013 he took a step back statistically, posting some of his worst numbers. Catching 75 of 110 targets (68.2 pct., second-best among receivers), Colston had just five touchdowns and 943 yards. He had only 13 plays of 20-plus yards and none for 40-plus yards, the first time in his career he didn't record at least one 40-yard catch. If you watched Colston play you could tell he was slower than in the past and really couldn't separate from defenders much. Worst of all, he proved to be among the least consistent big-name receivers, posting 10-plus points four times and doing so in back-to-back games only once. He had six Fantasy points or less eight times. Disappointing stuff for a guy you might have targeted in past drafts.

Consistency Rankings
Rank Player GP FPTS/gm 10+ Consistency Rank Player GP FPTS/gm 10+ Consistency
1 Julio Jones 5 13.0 4 80.0% 11 DeSean Jackson 16 11.4 8 50.0%
2 Josh Gordon 14 15.8 10 71.4% 11 Jordy Nelson 16 10.8 8 50.0%
3 Demaryius Thomas 16 13.8 11 68.8% 11 Justin Blackmon 4 11.5 2 50.0%
3 A.J. Green 16 12.7 11 68.8% 16 Andre Johnson 16 10.1 7 43.8%
5 Randall Cobb 6 11.8 4 66.7% 17 Keenan Allen 14 10.1 6 42.9%
6 Calvin Johnson 14 15.1 9 64.3% 18 Marvin Jones 15 8.5 6 40.0%
7 Brandon Marshall 16 12.4 9 56.3% 18 Michael Crabtree 5 6.4 2 40.0%
7 Dez Bryant 16 12.1 9 56.3% 20 Eric Decker 16 11.7 6 37.5%
7 Larry Fitzgerald 16 9.1 9 56.3% 20 Vincent Jackson 16 9.8 6 37.5%
10 Wes Welker 13 10.0 7 53.8% 20 Pierre Garcon 16 9.6 6 37.5%
11 Antonio Brown 16 11.9 8 50.0% 20 Anquan Boldin 16 9.6 6 37.5%
11 Alshon Jeffery 16 11.6 8 50.0% 20 Julian Edelman 16 8.6 6 37.5%

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Report: Texans RB Arian Foster could miss first eight games of 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) Texans running back Arian Foster is expected to miss the first eight games of the season because of a 'major' groin injury, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network.

Foster suffered the groin injury during Monday's practice and hobbled off the field during a play. The injury, which may require surgery, could land him on the PUP list to begin the season. Foster dealt with multiple injuries in 2014, including a groin injury that forced him to miss two games.

The veteran ran for 1,246 yards and eight touchdowns in 2014 with 327 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. 


Eagles RB DeMarco Murray sidelined by hydration issue
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) Eagles running back DeMarco Murray was forced to miss the first day of team drills on Sunday because of poor hydration levels, coach Chip Kelly said per the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"We did a hydration status test and he was a little bit high and obviously when you see guys that are high from a hydration standpoint, then you kind of pull them back a little bit because that's when they are susceptible for an injury," Kelly said.

"He's probably the most conditioned athlete on our team, but if you don't drink the requisite amount of water and electrolytes and have them in your system, it doesn't matter how fit you are," Kelly said of Murray. "Especially the weather - that was a big factor for us, too. We have had back-to-back, and going into three, 90-degree days. . . .You don't want to lose a guy in the first day."


49ers' Bruce Ellington, Ben Gottschalk dealing with injuries
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) 49ers wide receiver Bruce Ellington will be held out of the next few practices because of a strained left leg, reports the Bay Area News Group. Ellington sustained the injury during Monday's practice.

"I'm holding him [out]," coach Jim Tomsula said. "I want to make sure we're good there."

Meanwhile, offensive lineman Ben Gottschalk underwent a foot procedure and is out indefinitely.


Rams DE Chris Long returns to practice
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) Rams defensive end Chris Long was able to practice on Tuesday after missing the first three days with a back issue, according to The St. Louis Post-Dispatch

The veteran is expected to anchor a strong defensive line this year after playing just six games last season because of an injury. Long 51 1/2 career sacks in seven seasons in St. Louis.


49ers' Alex Boone shifting from right guard to left
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) 49ers offensive lineman Alex Boone is expected to switch from right guard to left guard for the upcoming season, the veteran said per ESPN.com. He will replace three-time Pro Bowler Mike Iupati at the position.

"It's great," Boone said. "It's different, obviously, [after] playing next to Anthony [Davis] all those years, now you move over play next to Joe [Staley]. Both great tackles. Footwork's a little diferent, handwork is a little different, but at the end of the day it’s come along real well."


Report: RB Pierre Thomas to visit Texans
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) The Texans could be in the market for a running back now that Arian Foster could be dealing with an injury. Veteran free agent Pierre Thomas is reportedly going to visit with Houston, according to NFL Network. 

He is expected to workout for the team on Wednesday. Thomas spent his entire career in New Orleans where he ran for 3,745 yards and 28 touchdowns in eight seasons. 


Cowboys 'like the fight' in cornerback Tyler Patmon
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) Cowboys cornerback Tyler Patmon made news over the weekend when he got into a skirmish with star wide receiver Dez Bryant running the down the field. For the second-year player, it showed his tenacity and desire to play the game, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

"Well, Patmon is a great story for our team," coach Jason Garrett said. "He came to the rookie mimicamp as an undrafted, unsigned tryout guy. For him to do what he did over the course of those three days his first year to show us that, 'hey, he's one of the better guys. I don't care who we drafted or who we signed we need to make sure that he's one of the guys that has a chance to make our football team.'

"So what he is all about was demonstrated right from the start. He's a guy that's all about what he does. It doesn't really matter where he comes from and what has happened to him and other people in the past. He wants to show you what he's all about by what he does each and every day. And I think he’s done that since he's been here. He's a competitor. He's a fighter. He's an instinctive player. He loves to play the game. I think he’s gotten better and better."

Patmon is fighting for a roster spot and the fourth cornerback position on the team. 


Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson misses practice on Tuesday
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson was unable to practice on Tuesday while dealing with a sore hamstring, according to ESPN.com.

Wilkerson left Sunday's practice while dealing with the injury and is being held out as a precaution. 

"He’s feeling OK, [the hamstring is] tight," Jets coach Todd Bowles said. "It’s day to day -- we’re gonna err on the side of caution."


Lions negotiating to re-sign Haloti Ngata, DeAndre Levy
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) The Lions are making a big push to re-sign defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and linebacker DeAndre Levy, according to The Detroit News. General manager Martin Mayhew said the team is in discussions with both player's agents on new deals. 

"[Levy's] a heck of a football player, just a playmaker on our defense," Mayhew said before training camp Tuesday. "Versus the run and the pass, the guy's an impact player, so we definitely want to keep him on our defense — very important to our football team. His leadership is also excellent, professional in every sense of the word, so he has a lot of value to us. And he's one of our own guys, so we want to definitely keep him around."

Ngata is entering his first season with the Lions after being traded from Baltimore in March.

"He's a phenomenal player," Mayhew said. "He can be an impact player for us as well along the defensive line. I don't really need to see a whole lot more. … I've seen enough to know that I want to have him around."


Eagles release WR Devante Davis, sign Josh Reese
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(8/4/2015) The Eagles have released wide receiver Devante Davis and signed free agent rookie Josh Reese, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Davis a rookie pickup and yet to play in the league.


 
 
 
Rankings