Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2013 Consistency Breakdown: Wide receivers

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Consistency Breakdowns: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

It might seem like receivers are becoming a bigger part of Fantasy Football, but it's not really happening.

Example: In 2012 there were 407 times where a wideout posted 10 or more Fantasy points in a standard league. That number dipped to 386 in 2013 -- and sure, that is a big number when you think about it, but also think about every team having (at least) four receivers and playing 16 games. Scores of opportunities for receivers to put up points and it's not happening often enough.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

Maybe that's unfair to say. It's happening enough -- just not in a consistent manner. Consistency is an issue at every position and it's what makes the studs so great. Of the 386 times a receiver had 10-plus Fantasy points, they repeated the feat in their very next game just 112 times, a 29 percent rate. That's ugly, but it comes with a silver lining: 54 of the 112 back-to-back 10-point performances were done by Top 12 receivers and 79 of the 112 two-fers -- a cool 70.5 percent -- were done by Top 24 receivers. Those percentages are on par with what players had, be it in the Top 12, Top 24 or overall in 2012.

Studs being studs. It just might be the evidence you need to take two receivers with your first four picks ... if not first three picks ... if not first two picks.

In Fantasy there's always the allure of the boom-or-bust player, a guy who can dominate a game and score 20-plus points or collapse with a two-catch, 24-yard game. Some believe a Fantasy team full of boom-or-busters can help propel them to victory week after week just on the strength of three of four players coming through. Others gravitate toward consistent receivers who can deliver a nice amount of Fantasy points from week to week.

However you want to slice it, we're taking a look back at the wideouts who were consistent and those who might have earned the stigma of boom-or-bust types.

Consistent: Larry Fitzgerald

Fantasy point average: 9.1 over 16 games / 10+ points: 9 of 16 games (56.3 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 20 3 6 12 4 15 1 10 bye 2 12 17 13 15 4 1 11 146

Fitzgerald didn't quite match expectations in 2013 given where he was drafted (30th overall on average) but still was among the Top 10 receivers in terms of consistency (yes, really). That's pretty much the only positive Fitzgerald has -- even with nine games over 10-plus Fantasy points, he averaged less than 10 points over the season and really bombed out in the seven games he didn't get double digits in, gaining no more than six points in them. It's been a tough two years for Fitzgerald -- he didn't even have 100 points total in 2012 because of the Cardinals quarterback woes and got only a mild bump this year because of Carson Palmer, who played behind a mediocre offensive line all season. He has just 20 plays of 20-plus yards in his last two seasons and doesn't have 1,000 yards in each of his last two years. Time might be running out on him to return to elite form in Fantasy.

Consistent: Wes Welker

Fantasy point average: 13.0 over 13 games / 10+ points: 7 of 13 games (53.8 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 16 9 14 19 10 12 9 14 bye 2 7 3 3 12 DNP DNP DNP 130

It was very much a tale of two halves for Welker in 2013 as he averaged 12.9 Fantasy points per game in his first eight, 5.4 in five games in his last five with three missed games. A pair of concussions really did in his season -- the first one in Week 11, the second in Week 14. And after scoring eight touchdowns in his first six games, Welker had two in his last 10. The combination of two concussions and his declining role following the Broncos bye week suggests he won't be as big a hero to Fantasy owners again in 2014. That's a tough pill to swallow since Welker has finished as a Top 24 receiver in each of the last six years.

Consistent: Julio Jones

Fantasy point average: 13.0 over 5 games / 10+ points: 4 of 5 games (80.0 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 11 24 11 10 9 bye DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 65

Josh Gordon might have been the receiver Fantasy owners fell in love with in 2013 but one guy, and only one guy, was more consistent in the games he played. That would be Jones, who had at least nine Fantasy points in every game and 10-plus in four of five. Would Jones have kept it up if he played all 16 games? Probably not, but one could reason he would pick up double digits in the 71 percent of games Gordon had, particularly with his red-hot start. Jones is on track to rejoin the Falcons long before the start of training camp and should be considered a cinch Top 30 pick.

Consistent: Randall Cobb

Fantasy point average: 11.8 over 6 games / 10+ points: 4 of 6 games (66.7 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 16 18 5 bye 10 5 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 17 71

Like Jones, an injury cut down Cobb's chances to be a dominant Fantasy contributor in 2013. But also like Jones, he was very helpful when he was healthy. Cobb ranked in the Top 5 in consistency with 10-plus points in four of the six games he played in. He had 49 targets on the year, including the postseason. It actually branches out to an average of 1.9 targets per quarter played (he played nearly one half in the game he got hurt in Week 6 vs. Baltimore). That's up there with the elite target receivers in football. Now is not a bad time to remind you he led the Packers in targets last year with 112, catching 76.8 percent of them (he caught 67.4 pct. in 2013). Cobb should be on your wish lists next year and might even come at a bargain price in drafts and auctions.

Inconsistent: Eric Decker

Fantasy point average: 11.7 over 16 games / 10+ points: 6 of 16 games (37.5 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 3 8 19 8 12 5 21 4 bye 5 7 0 41 17 4 25 8 187

Decker posted career highs in catches (87) and yards (1,288) while landing double-digit touchdowns for the second year in a row. Not bad for a guy headed for a pay day. But you'd think a guy who averaged 11.7 Fantasy points per game would be more reliable in standard leagues. But he had just six games with double-digit Fantasy points in 2013, down from eight in 2012. Games like the ones he had in Weeks 7 and 13 when he combined for five touchdowns and 324 yards along like the ones he had in Weeks 1 and 12 (three grabs for 37 yards total) basically cemented him as a boom-or-bust type rather than a steady choice. Decker's an easy pick to make as a second receiver, even with the inconsistency, if he stays in Denver. But if he moves on and doesn't have the brainac quarterback and multiple teammates to draw coverage away from him, I don't see Decker as even a Top 20 option.

Inconsistent: T.Y. Hilton

Fantasy point average: 8.3 over 16 games / 10+ points: 5 of 16 games (31.3 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 2 12 1 4 26 4 2 bye 30 13 4 3 4 0 7 5 15 132

Man, we really missed the boat on this guy. A preseason favorite for just about everyone, Hilton had just five games with 10-plus Fantasy points and only one instance of back-to-back double-digit games. He especially seemed lost when the Colts lost Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL -- once Wayne was out of it Hilton had just two starts with 10-plus Fantasy points. It took until the end of the year and into the postseason for Hilton to really break out as a fantastic stand-alone threat. Getting at least 100 yards in each of his last three including two playoff games, Hilton totaled 28 catches on 39 targets for 482 yards and two touchdowns. So which guy will we get in 2014: The one who struggled for much of 2013 or the one who was a post-Christmas miracle for the Colts? You'll hear plenty about how Hilton looks great in camp and how the Colts offense will branch out this offseason, but if we really see it in practices and the preseason then Hilton's draft status will come close to mirroring what we saw in 2013, when he was taken 79th overall on average.

Inconsistent: Torrey Smith

Fantasy point average: 8.3 over 16 games / 10+ points: 4 of 16 games (25.0 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 9 8 9 22 12 1 6 0 7 10 9 7 15 3 6 6 2 132

Smith had his opportunity to grab the spotlight in Baltimore and even had the targets to shine, but he didn't deliver. Finishing with a 16th-best 138 targets, Smith continued a disappointing trend in catching less than half of them -- only he and Vincent Jackson were among the Top 30 receivers who caught 50 percent or fewer of their targets in 2013. That lack of production meant only four games with double digits in Fantasy points. But he still had a career-high 1,128 yards even with two games over 100 yards and five games under 60 yards. Maybe there's some optimism here since Smith had three games with nine Fantasy points (almost 10), but even if you gave him credit for those he still had only 13 occurrences over his last 32 games. For a receiver in his second and third seasons, that's not so good. Smith might not be the stud receiver we hoped he'd become.

Inconsistent: Marques Colston

Fantasy point average: 7.9 over 15 games / 10+ points: 4 of 15 games (26.7 pct.)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 TOTAL
FPTS 12 6 7 9 1 1 bye 1 DNP 16 8 4 2 24 15 6 6 118

Before this year, Colston was considered one of the most consistent receivers in Fantasy. He had posted 1,000 yards in each of the six seasons where he played at least 12 games and had eight or more scores in five of those years. But in 2013 he took a step back statistically, posting some of his worst numbers. Catching 75 of 110 targets (68.2 pct., second-best among receivers), Colston had just five touchdowns and 943 yards. He had only 13 plays of 20-plus yards and none for 40-plus yards, the first time in his career he didn't record at least one 40-yard catch. If you watched Colston play you could tell he was slower than in the past and really couldn't separate from defenders much. Worst of all, he proved to be among the least consistent big-name receivers, posting 10-plus points four times and doing so in back-to-back games only once. He had six Fantasy points or less eight times. Disappointing stuff for a guy you might have targeted in past drafts.

Consistency Rankings
Rank Player GP FPTS/gm 10+ Consistency Rank Player GP FPTS/gm 10+ Consistency
1 Julio Jones 5 13.0 4 80.0% 11 DeSean Jackson 16 11.4 8 50.0%
2 Josh Gordon 14 15.8 10 71.4% 11 Jordy Nelson 16 10.8 8 50.0%
3 Demaryius Thomas 16 13.8 11 68.8% 11 Justin Blackmon 4 11.5 2 50.0%
3 A.J. Green 16 12.7 11 68.8% 16 Andre Johnson 16 10.1 7 43.8%
5 Randall Cobb 6 11.8 4 66.7% 17 Keenan Allen 14 10.1 6 42.9%
6 Calvin Johnson 14 15.1 9 64.3% 18 Marvin Jones 15 8.5 6 40.0%
7 Brandon Marshall 16 12.4 9 56.3% 18 Michael Crabtree 5 6.4 2 40.0%
7 Dez Bryant 16 12.1 9 56.3% 20 Eric Decker 16 11.7 6 37.5%
7 Larry Fitzgerald 16 9.1 9 56.3% 20 Vincent Jackson 16 9.8 6 37.5%
10 Wes Welker 13 10.0 7 53.8% 20 Pierre Garcon 16 9.6 6 37.5%
11 Antonio Brown 16 11.9 8 50.0% 20 Anquan Boldin 16 9.6 6 37.5%
11 Alshon Jeffery 16 11.6 8 50.0% 20 Julian Edelman 16 8.6 6 37.5%

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Seahawks DT Jesse Williams to have kidney surgery Thursday
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(8:39 pm ET) Seahawks defensive tackle Jesse Williams is scheduled to have kidney surgery on Thursday, the team announced. 

This surgery will take place 10 days after he was diagnosed with Papillary Type 2 cancer. 

"He’s a battler all the way," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "He’s been up against it, too. He’s fought some difficult fights, and he’s fighting another one - maybe the fight of a young man’s life.

"We’ll be there with him and hope to pull him through.”


Seahawks' Lemuel Jeanpierre with first team, not Patrick Lewis
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(8:35 pm ET) The Seahawks worked in a new first-team center on Tuesday and it wasn't the one projected to fill Max Unger's vacant spot.

According to ESPN.com, Lemuel Jeanpierre worked with the first team during Tuesday's OTA practice. Patrick Lewis, who many projected to be the front-runner for the job, worked in as Jeanpierre's backup.

After practice, coach Pete Carroll said Jeanpierre earned the opportunity to begin OTAs as the first-team center.

Jeanpierre has been with the Seahawks since 2011 and Lewis joined the squad a year ago. Jeanpierre has 11 career starts and Lewis has four, all of which happened with Seattle in 2014.  


Falcons RB Devonta Freeman opens OTAs as starter
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(6:35 pm ET) The Falcons opened OTAs with running back Devonta Freeman getting the nod with the first team, according to ESPN.com

Freeman is entering his second year in the NFL, though there is a lot of buzz surrounding rookie draft choice Tevin Coleman out of Indiana. Though Freeman is the technical starter for now, it should be an open competition between these two and Antone Smith this August. 


Chiefs OLB Justin Houston a no-show to OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(6:17 pm ET) Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston did not show up to Tuesday's organized team activity practice, according to the Kansas City Star

Houston is reportedly seeking a long-term deal and would prefer not to sign the franchise tender the Chiefs are offering. The Chiefs placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Houston earlier this offseason. 

The Chiefs have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal with the star outside linebacker. If they don't, teams could offer Houston deals with the Chiefs having the right to match. And if the Chiefs chose not to match, they would receive two first-round picks from the team signing Houston away. 

Houston totaled 22 sacks a year ago. Teammate Tamba Hali said that Houston has been working out and would like to practice with the Chiefs if it was possible. 

“Every two or three weeks, we talk,” Hali said. “He's working, he's working his tail off. Like any player, he wants to be here. But we know our league is a business, and we've got to allow that process to work itself out. He wants to be here. He's missing it.”


Titans RB Shonn Greene absent from OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:55 pm ET) Titans running back Shonn Greene did not attend Tuesday's OTA practice, according to The Tennessean

"Obviously we'd like to have him here," Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "But he's a veteran. He knows how to get himself prepared."

Greene told the Titans, Whisenhunt said, that he's unable to attend at the moment because he is the caretaker of a child. Greene ran for 392 yards and two touchdowns during the 2014 season. 


Eagles G Evan Mathis doesn't show up to OTAs
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:50 pm ET) For the second consecutive season, Eagles guard Evan Mathis was a no-show to OTAs, according to ESPN.com. 

Mathis has received permission to seek a trade though nothing has materialized. After failing to report to OTAs a year ago, Mathis showed up to the Eagles facility on time. 

Mathis is entering his 11th NFL season and fifth with the Eagles. 


Browns RB Isaiah Crowell opens OTAs as starter
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:44 pm ET) Isaiah Crowell opened Tuesday's OTA practice as the Browns' starting running back, according to ESPNCleveland.com. 

Crowell, an undrafted free-agent a year ago, and Terrance West split first-team reps. Crowell totaled 607 yards and eight touchdowns while West ran for 673 yards and four. Regardless of who the starter is, the Browns are likely to use a rotation at running back. 


Chiefs OLB Tamba Hali underwent minor knee procedure
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:38 pm ET) Chiefs outside linebacker Tamba Hali said he had a minor procedure performed on his knee this offseason, according to the Kansas City Star

Hali said the procedure was done to clean out some loose cartilage. 

It's not anything that'e expected to keep Hali off of the field. A year ago, Hali recorded 59 tackles and six sacks. 


Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) has yet to start throwing
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:32 pm ET) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr did not participate in any passing drills during Tuesday's OTA practice, according to the Bay Area News Group. 

Carr has an injured right ring finger that he's not contemplating surgery for. He was able to take snaps and make pitches during practice. Though he's missing the reps now, Carr is expected to be back by the start of training camp. 


Seahawks CB Richard Sherman practices fully on Tuesday
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:28 pm ET) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman did not have any limitations during Tuesday's OTA practice. 

According to the Seattle Times, Sherman, who suffered an elbow injury during this past postseason, was able to practice fully

There was a chance Sherman would need Tommy John surgery, though he decided to let the injury heal on its own. In 2014, Sherman recorded 57 tackles and four interceptions. 


 
 
 
Rankings