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Offseason Extra: RB tiers for 2014

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Early Tiers for 2014: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

Whether you stick to your guns and hoard running backs early or embrace the idea of taking a non-rusher with your first- and/or second-round choice, there's no denying that when you have good running backs, Fantasy is easy. Setting a lineup is a snap. The pressure's off, the drama is minimized and the roster seems better when you have rushers to spare.

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Does it mean absolutely, positively taking one in Round 1? That's a different story.

The turnover at the position is sickening. Over the last seven seasons, anywhere from four to six backs (no more, no less) repeated as Top 12 finishers from year to year. And if that's not bad enough then get this: Only once in the last five years have more than half of the running backs with a first-round draft average finished in the Top 12.

Still want to take a running back with your first pick no matter what?

The work is where it's at

There's no magical mystery to know what it takes for a running back to be great for Fantasy. Guys who touch the ball a bunch will deliver. Last year, there were nine running backs that had at least 300 touches (carries plus catches) and all nine finished in the Top 12. Another six had between 275 and 299 touches -- one was a Top 12 back, the other five finished in the Top 20. And two of the three backs with 250 to 274 touches finished in the Top 12 (the one that didn't -- Ray Rice -- finished a gross 30th overall).

More touches, more numbers
2013 RB workload Finished Success rate
300+ touches (9) Top 12: 9 Top 24: 0 100 pct.
275-299 touches (6) Top 12: 1 Top 24: 5 100 pct.
250-274 touches (3) Top 12: 2 Top 24: 0 66.7 pct.
225-249 touches (4) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 50.0 pct.
200-224 touches (7) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 28.6 pct.
175-199 touches (5) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 40.0 pct.
150-174 touches (6) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 1 16.7 pct.

All of this is evidence that touches are where it's at, and when it comes to drafting backs this summer it'll be the guys with the potential for the most work to fly off the draft boards first. The ones with goal-line potential will supersede those that rely on their receiving prowess for productive numbers.

The only issue left is knowing when to take them.

Rush for running backs?

In the past I've been accused of being the guy who drafts too many running backs. Even in the mock we did during the playoffs I took seven running backs over 15 rounds and only two receivers! I'm not changing form now -- I still want as many running backs as I can squeeze onto my roster -- but I might change when I get my first few.

Think about why backs like Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy go ahead of ones like Zac Stacy and Alfred Morris. There's nothing wrong with Stacy and Morris, but the feeling is that they aren't going to be as productive and Charles and McCoy. I'd use the term "difference maker" to describe Charles and McCoy, and that appeal -- the potential to deliver big Fantasy points every week rather than only in favorable matchups or when they get near the goal line -- makes them unique to their position.

The same idea works for a select few at other positions, and it's those difference makers that should be considered among the other elite and near-elite running backs when it comes to drafting. And the premium placed on players like Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- guys who are roundly considered as close to sure things as you can find -- makes them more desirable to me than, say, a good running back who has big potential but also has an injury history, or a back that has potential and only potential (think David Wilson from 2013).

As big of an advocate as I am for taking running backs, I'm more comfortable taking the studs at other positions so long as there isn't a great running back to go after. Once those non-running back elitists are gone I'll go back to going after running backs. So I would consider a non-running back in the first and second rounds.

What I will stick to is aiming for running backs in the middle rounds -- more than I normally might if I take a lot of non-rushers early on. When I do chase them I'll go after the ones with a chance at 200 touches. Those are the ones with a good chance to finish as a Top 24 option. I'm sure I'll end up drafting pumpkins but the whole "lottery ticket" theory is in play: The more chances you take, the better chances you have of winding up with a productive player. Owners who drafted Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Ryan Mathews, Le'Veon Bell and Fred Jackson -- all taken on average between 60th and 122nd overall last year -- will appreciate this philosophy.

Fighting through the tiers

The very best way to organize your running backs when preparing to draft is to sort them by expectations into groups, or tiers. The bigger stats you expect a player to have, the higher tier. Once you do this exercise you'll have a good feel for when the talent pool begins to shrink and can draft accordingly.

Obviously you should expect changes between now and August. I hope so, because there's a lot of white space in the first two tiers and the fifth tier. There are a bunch of rookies that will impact this as well as free agent movement. Consider this simply a first draft of what will eventually be a sensational, dynamic, mega-awesome tier system come August (cue the fireworks!).

2014 running back tiers
1,600+ total yards, 11+ TDs 1,400+ total yards, 9+ TDs 1,250+ total yards, 8+ TDs 1,100+ total yards, 7+ TDs
Jamaal Charles Eddie Lacy DeMarco Murray Giovani Bernard
LeSean McCoy Adrian Peterson Doug Martin Chris Johnson
Matt Forte Le'Veon Bell Arian Foster Knowshon Moreno
  Marshawn Lynch Alfred Morris Ray Rice
    Ryan Mathews C.J. Spiller
    Zac Stacy Steven Jackson
    Reggie Bush Maurice Jones-Drew
      LeGarrette Blount
1,000+ total yards, 6+ TDs 900+ total yards, 5+ TDs High-end backups Low-end backups
Shane Vereen Donald Brown Stevan Ridley Latavius Murray
Frank Gore Chris Ivory DeAngelo Williams Marcus Lattimore
Ben Tate Andre Ellington Rashard Mendenhall Darren McFadden
Fred Jackson Andre Brown Montee Ball Bryce Brown
  Lamar Miller Shonn Greene Mike Tolbert
  Joique Bell BenJarvus Green-Ellis Mike James
  Rashad Jennings Pierre Thomas Daniel Thomas
    Danny Woodhead James Starks
    Khiry Robinson Mark Ingram
    Trent Richardson Jacquizz Rodgers
    Darren Sproles  

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

Want an edge in your draft? Download the Fantasy Draft Kit App.

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Player News
Cowboys bring back Phillip Tanner
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:59 pm ET) The Cowboys signed running back Phillip Tanner, who was released by the Colts a week ago. Tanner played for Dallas the past three seasons but got just 12 touches last year.

Josh Gordon gets one-year suspension
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:40 pm ET) Arbitrator Harold Henderson upheld the one-year suspension for Browns receiver Josh Gordon.

"I'd like to apologize to my teammates, coaches, the Cleveland Browns organization and our fans," Gordon said in a statement. "I am very disappointed that the NFL and its hearing office didn't exercise better discretion and judgment in my case. I would like to sincerely thank the people who have been incredibly supportive of me during this challenging time, including my family, my agent, my union, my legal team, and the Cleveland Browns staff."

Gordon was suspended for a repeat violation of the league's substance abuse policy. He will be considered for reinstatement following the 2014 season, so the suspension might last less than a full calendar year.


Ron Rivera: Cam Newton's injury won't limit offense
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:33 pm ET) Panthers coach Ron Rivera said quarterback Cam Newton's rib injury won't limit the offense, suggesting the team will still run zone-read plays, reports the Charlotte Observer.

Cam Newton has 'no doubt' he'll play Week 1
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:29 pm ET) Panthers quarterback Cam Newton said "there's no doubt" he'll play in the season opener against Tampa Bay, reports the Charlotte Observer. Newton is nursing a hairline fracture in one of his ribs.

Gio Bernard, Jeremy Hill each projected with 200 carries
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:21 pm ET) The Bengals' official website was impressed with rookie Jeremy Hill's power running in the third preseason game. Writer Geoff Hobson opined "it looks like Giovani Bernard and Hill could both get about 200 attempts."

Bernard figures to be prominent in the passing game, while Hill is expected to get a lot of goal-line and short-yardage carries.


Kenny Stills considered questionable for Week 1
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:10 pm ET) Saints receiver Kenny Stills, who aggravated his quad injury in Saturday's game, is questionable for the season opener, reports ESPN.com.

Coach: Eddie Lacy could lead NFL in yards from scrimmage
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(11:53 am ET) Packers running backs coach Sam Gash said second-year back Eddie Lacy has a chance to lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage.

"He has the capability of being the leading rusher and maybe even combined yards if he catches a lot of balls," Gash told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "I absolutely do think that.

"I think he's a bell cow. He's a big guy, and he's physical."

Lacy ranked 14th last year with 1,435 yards from scrimmage. He was removed in some passing and two-minute situations last season, but has been groomed to play in all situations this year, the paper said.


Browns 'baffled' and 'frustrated' by lack of Josh Gordon ruling
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(11:35 am ET) The Browns are "baffled" as to why arbitrator Harold Henderson has not issued a ruling on Josh Gordon's appeal, reports ESPN's Adam Schefter. Team officials are "frustrated over where it could leave them and Gordon."

If the superstar receiver gets a one-year suspension now, Gordon would miss all of 2015 training camp. "Browns sources said there would be an extreme amount of frustration in the organization over that ruling and why it has taken so long," Schefter wrote.

Gordon's appeal of his drug-related suspension concluded Monday, Aug. 4.

Adrian Peterson to be used differently
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(11:26 am ET) The Vikings want to get running back Adrian Peterson to the edge more often this season, "both to maximize his explosiveness and reduce the pounding on his body," reports ESPN.com. "He'll run out of shotgun sets and multiple-receiver formations more often."

The website said Peterson will get more usage as a receiver and that's "the most profound change for him this season."

Said running backs coach Kirby Wilson: "He's had good days, but there are some days when he's been spectacular in those areas. I'm excited to see what the new and improved Adrian Peterson is going to look like when the opener starts. I think this whole team is excited about what he could bring as a dual-threat player."


Zach Ertz buzz hitting new heights
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(11:10 am ET) Expectations continue to skyrocket for Eagles second-year tight end Zach Ertz. Tight ends coach Ted Williams was the latest to chime in, calling Ertz "one of the best route-runners I've ever seen."

"He takes a lot of pride in that," Williams added to Philly.com. "He has a lot of confidence. He's hard to defeat, because he doesn't take defeat very well. He feels, 'You can't cover me.'"

The website noted Ertz caught four touchdowns in the second half of last season and claimed he's poised to break out this year. Ertz and fellow tight end Brent Celek will have "a much bigger role in the passing game," the report said.

Ertz said he's taking every rep "personally."

"If somebody beats me, I'm going to take that personally. I want to be great," he said. "That's my goal each and every day I step out onto the field. I want to prove to myself and everybody else how good I can be, and I'm willing to work as hard as I need to achieve that goal."


 
 
 
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