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Offseason Extra: RB tiers for 2014

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Early Tiers for 2014: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

Whether you stick to your guns and hoard running backs early or embrace the idea of taking a non-rusher with your first- and/or second-round choice, there's no denying that when you have good running backs, Fantasy is easy. Setting a lineup is a snap. The pressure's off, the drama is minimized and the roster seems better when you have rushers to spare.

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Does it mean absolutely, positively taking one in Round 1? That's a different story.

The turnover at the position is sickening. Over the last seven seasons, anywhere from four to six backs (no more, no less) repeated as Top 12 finishers from year to year. And if that's not bad enough then get this: Only once in the last five years have more than half of the running backs with a first-round draft average finished in the Top 12.

Still want to take a running back with your first pick no matter what?

The work is where it's at

There's no magical mystery to know what it takes for a running back to be great for Fantasy. Guys who touch the ball a bunch will deliver. Last year, there were nine running backs that had at least 300 touches (carries plus catches) and all nine finished in the Top 12. Another six had between 275 and 299 touches -- one was a Top 12 back, the other five finished in the Top 20. And two of the three backs with 250 to 274 touches finished in the Top 12 (the one that didn't -- Ray Rice -- finished a gross 30th overall).

More touches, more numbers
2013 RB workload Finished Success rate
300+ touches (9) Top 12: 9 Top 24: 0 100 pct.
275-299 touches (6) Top 12: 1 Top 24: 5 100 pct.
250-274 touches (3) Top 12: 2 Top 24: 0 66.7 pct.
225-249 touches (4) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 50.0 pct.
200-224 touches (7) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 28.6 pct.
175-199 touches (5) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 40.0 pct.
150-174 touches (6) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 1 16.7 pct.

All of this is evidence that touches are where it's at, and when it comes to drafting backs this summer it'll be the guys with the potential for the most work to fly off the draft boards first. The ones with goal-line potential will supersede those that rely on their receiving prowess for productive numbers.

The only issue left is knowing when to take them.

Rush for running backs?

In the past I've been accused of being the guy who drafts too many running backs. Even in the mock we did during the playoffs I took seven running backs over 15 rounds and only two receivers! I'm not changing form now -- I still want as many running backs as I can squeeze onto my roster -- but I might change when I get my first few.

Think about why backs like Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy go ahead of ones like Zac Stacy and Alfred Morris. There's nothing wrong with Stacy and Morris, but the feeling is that they aren't going to be as productive and Charles and McCoy. I'd use the term "difference maker" to describe Charles and McCoy, and that appeal -- the potential to deliver big Fantasy points every week rather than only in favorable matchups or when they get near the goal line -- makes them unique to their position.

The same idea works for a select few at other positions, and it's those difference makers that should be considered among the other elite and near-elite running backs when it comes to drafting. And the premium placed on players like Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- guys who are roundly considered as close to sure things as you can find -- makes them more desirable to me than, say, a good running back who has big potential but also has an injury history, or a back that has potential and only potential (think David Wilson from 2013).

As big of an advocate as I am for taking running backs, I'm more comfortable taking the studs at other positions so long as there isn't a great running back to go after. Once those non-running back elitists are gone I'll go back to going after running backs. So I would consider a non-running back in the first and second rounds.

What I will stick to is aiming for running backs in the middle rounds -- more than I normally might if I take a lot of non-rushers early on. When I do chase them I'll go after the ones with a chance at 200 touches. Those are the ones with a good chance to finish as a Top 24 option. I'm sure I'll end up drafting pumpkins but the whole "lottery ticket" theory is in play: The more chances you take, the better chances you have of winding up with a productive player. Owners who drafted Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Ryan Mathews, Le'Veon Bell and Fred Jackson -- all taken on average between 60th and 122nd overall last year -- will appreciate this philosophy.

Fighting through the tiers

The very best way to organize your running backs when preparing to draft is to sort them by expectations into groups, or tiers. The bigger stats you expect a player to have, the higher tier. Once you do this exercise you'll have a good feel for when the talent pool begins to shrink and can draft accordingly.

Obviously you should expect changes between now and August. I hope so, because there's a lot of white space in the first two tiers and the fifth tier. There are a bunch of rookies that will impact this as well as free agent movement. Consider this simply a first draft of what will eventually be a sensational, dynamic, mega-awesome tier system come August (cue the fireworks!).

2014 running back tiers
1,600+ total yards, 11+ TDs 1,400+ total yards, 9+ TDs 1,250+ total yards, 8+ TDs 1,100+ total yards, 7+ TDs
Jamaal Charles Eddie Lacy DeMarco Murray Giovani Bernard
LeSean McCoy Adrian Peterson Doug Martin Chris Johnson
Matt Forte Le'Veon Bell Arian Foster Knowshon Moreno
  Marshawn Lynch Alfred Morris Ray Rice
    Ryan Mathews C.J. Spiller
    Zac Stacy Steven Jackson
    Reggie Bush Maurice Jones-Drew
      LeGarrette Blount
1,000+ total yards, 6+ TDs 900+ total yards, 5+ TDs High-end backups Low-end backups
Shane Vereen Donald Brown Stevan Ridley Latavius Murray
Frank Gore Chris Ivory DeAngelo Williams Marcus Lattimore
Ben Tate Andre Ellington Rashard Mendenhall Darren McFadden
Fred Jackson Andre Brown Montee Ball Bryce Brown
  Lamar Miller Shonn Greene Mike Tolbert
  Joique Bell BenJarvus Green-Ellis Mike James
  Rashad Jennings Pierre Thomas Daniel Thomas
    Danny Woodhead James Starks
    Khiry Robinson Mark Ingram
    Trent Richardson Jacquizz Rodgers
    Darren Sproles  

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Falcons list Roddy White, Harry Douglas probable for Week 16
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(1:03 pm ET) The Falcons have listed three wide receivers on its final injury report for Week 16 against New Orleans. Julio Jones (hip) was the only wideout that failed to practice this week and was deemed questionable. Roddy White (knee) and Harry Douglas (foot) were ruled probable.

Meanwhile, the rest of the injury report included safety William Moore (foot) and guard Jon Asamoah (back) as questionable. Cornerback Josh Wilson (hand) was designated as probable.


Cam Newton, Roman Harper among notable probables for Panthers
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:59 pm ET) The Panthers have listed seven players on its final injury report for Week 16 against Cleveland, four of which were deemed questionable. Those four include linebacker A.J. Klein (ankle), guard Amini Silatolu (knee), running back DeAngelo Williams (hand) and cornerback Carrington Byndom (hamstring).

Meanwhile, safety Roman Harper (thigh), quarterback Cam Newton (back) and linebacker Thomas Davis (knee) were listed as probable.


Panthers don't sound optimistic about DeAngelo Williams' status
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:55 pm ET) Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams was officially ruled as questionable for Sunday's game against Cleveland, but coach Ron Rivera did not sound optimistic about his playing status, according to the team's official website. "He's still uncomfortable" when it comes to pass blocking with hand.

If Williams plays, he'll be using a cast to protect his broken hand. If he does in fact sit out a third consecutive game, Jonathan Stewart will get the start. Carolina has moved from a 3-point to a 3 1/2-point favorite at home in Week 16.


Bills list C.J. Spiller as probable for Sunday's game vs. Oakland
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(12:54 pm ET) The Bills announced running back C.J. Spiller will be added to the 53-man roster and is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Raiders.

Spiller has not played since breaking his collarbone Oct. 19.

The Bills are 6 ½ point favorites over the Raiders Sunday.


Panthers waiting on doctors before naming Cam Newton starter
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:51 pm ET) Panthers coach Ron Rivera told reporters he will not name a starting quarterback on Friday, but was impressed with the way Cam Newton practiced this week, per the team's official website. "We'll have a good feel tomorrow," Rivera said, who is waiting for doctors to officially clear Newton.

Newton sat out Week 15 after suffering two small fractures in his back when he was involved in a car crash 10 days ago. He's officially ruled as probable for Sunday's game against Cleveland. Carolina has moved from a 3-point to a 3 1/2-point favorite at home in Week 16.


Falcons WR Julio Jones officially questionable for Sunday
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:45 pm ET) Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (hip) sat out Friday's practice and was officially designated as questionable for Sunday's contest against the Saints in Week 16, per the team's official website. Jones has not been able to practice since suffering the injury Week 14 against Green Bay.

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Jones will have a "big test run" on Saturday to determine his status for his team's NFC South showdown against the Saints. If his hip feels healthy enough from Saturday's workout on Sunday, he'll play. If he gets the red-light for the second consecutive week, Harry Douglas would get the start. Atlanta is a 6-point underdog at New Orleans.


Seahawks lock up DE Cliff Avril to four-year, $28.5M extension
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:17 pm ET) The Seahawks have signed defensive end Cliff Avril to a four-year contract extension worth $28.5 million with $16 million guaranteed, CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reports.

Avril was set to become a free agent at the end of the season before signing an extension. Since joining the Seahawks in 2013, the 28-year-old pass-rusher totaled 40 tackles, 12 1/2 sacks and six forced fumbles over 29 games.


Frank Gore: This could be my 'last two games' with 49ers
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:10 pm ET) 49ers running back Frank Gore told reporters his San Francisco days could be numbered, according to the San Francisco Chronicle on Friday. With two games remaining, the 49ers are virtually out of playoff contention and Gore is nearing the final year of his four-year, $25.9 million contract.

"I've been here 10 years, and it could be last two games here this year," Gore said. "It's weird knowing that I won't be under contract any more. But I've been in the league long enough to understand it's a business."

Drafted in the third round of the 2005 NFL Draft, Gore totaled 10,771 yards and 63 touchdowns on the ground over his 10-year career with the 49ers.


Colts WR T.Y. Hilton misses Friday practice
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(11:49 am ET) Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton was once against not able to practice Friday, reports ESPN.

Hilton is dealing with a hamstring injury and has not been able to practice at all this week. If Hilton can’t play Sunday at Dallas, wide receiver Donte Moncrief is expected to see an increase in playing time. In 14 games, Moncreif has caught 27 receptions for 423 yards and three touchdowns.

The Colts are 3-point underdogs to Dallas.


Falcons WR Julio Jones unable to practice again Friday
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:39 am ET) Falcons receiver Julio Jones missed another week of practice on Friday because of a lingering hip injury, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Jones has not been able to practice since suffering the injury Week 14 against Green Bay.

Per the paper, his playing status for Sunday's NFC South showdown against the Saints will be determined by a test run he'll have on Saturday. Harry Douglas would get the start if Jones sits out a second straight game. Atlanta is a 6-point underdog at New Orleans.


 
 
 
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