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Offseason Extra: RB tiers for 2014

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Early Tiers for 2014: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

Whether you stick to your guns and hoard running backs early or embrace the idea of taking a non-rusher with your first- and/or second-round choice, there's no denying that when you have good running backs, Fantasy is easy. Setting a lineup is a snap. The pressure's off, the drama is minimized and the roster seems better when you have rushers to spare.

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Does it mean absolutely, positively taking one in Round 1? That's a different story.

The turnover at the position is sickening. Over the last seven seasons, anywhere from four to six backs (no more, no less) repeated as Top 12 finishers from year to year. And if that's not bad enough then get this: Only once in the last five years have more than half of the running backs with a first-round draft average finished in the Top 12.

Still want to take a running back with your first pick no matter what?

The work is where it's at

There's no magical mystery to know what it takes for a running back to be great for Fantasy. Guys who touch the ball a bunch will deliver. Last year, there were nine running backs that had at least 300 touches (carries plus catches) and all nine finished in the Top 12. Another six had between 275 and 299 touches -- one was a Top 12 back, the other five finished in the Top 20. And two of the three backs with 250 to 274 touches finished in the Top 12 (the one that didn't -- Ray Rice -- finished a gross 30th overall).

More touches, more numbers
2013 RB workload Finished Success rate
300+ touches (9) Top 12: 9 Top 24: 0 100 pct.
275-299 touches (6) Top 12: 1 Top 24: 5 100 pct.
250-274 touches (3) Top 12: 2 Top 24: 0 66.7 pct.
225-249 touches (4) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 50.0 pct.
200-224 touches (7) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 28.6 pct.
175-199 touches (5) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 2 40.0 pct.
150-174 touches (6) Top 12: 0 Top 24: 1 16.7 pct.

All of this is evidence that touches are where it's at, and when it comes to drafting backs this summer it'll be the guys with the potential for the most work to fly off the draft boards first. The ones with goal-line potential will supersede those that rely on their receiving prowess for productive numbers.

The only issue left is knowing when to take them.

Rush for running backs?

In the past I've been accused of being the guy who drafts too many running backs. Even in the mock we did during the playoffs I took seven running backs over 15 rounds and only two receivers! I'm not changing form now -- I still want as many running backs as I can squeeze onto my roster -- but I might change when I get my first few.

Think about why backs like Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy go ahead of ones like Zac Stacy and Alfred Morris. There's nothing wrong with Stacy and Morris, but the feeling is that they aren't going to be as productive and Charles and McCoy. I'd use the term "difference maker" to describe Charles and McCoy, and that appeal -- the potential to deliver big Fantasy points every week rather than only in favorable matchups or when they get near the goal line -- makes them unique to their position.

The same idea works for a select few at other positions, and it's those difference makers that should be considered among the other elite and near-elite running backs when it comes to drafting. And the premium placed on players like Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- guys who are roundly considered as close to sure things as you can find -- makes them more desirable to me than, say, a good running back who has big potential but also has an injury history, or a back that has potential and only potential (think David Wilson from 2013).

As big of an advocate as I am for taking running backs, I'm more comfortable taking the studs at other positions so long as there isn't a great running back to go after. Once those non-running back elitists are gone I'll go back to going after running backs. So I would consider a non-running back in the first and second rounds.

What I will stick to is aiming for running backs in the middle rounds -- more than I normally might if I take a lot of non-rushers early on. When I do chase them I'll go after the ones with a chance at 200 touches. Those are the ones with a good chance to finish as a Top 24 option. I'm sure I'll end up drafting pumpkins but the whole "lottery ticket" theory is in play: The more chances you take, the better chances you have of winding up with a productive player. Owners who drafted Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Ryan Mathews, Le'Veon Bell and Fred Jackson -- all taken on average between 60th and 122nd overall last year -- will appreciate this philosophy.

Fighting through the tiers

The very best way to organize your running backs when preparing to draft is to sort them by expectations into groups, or tiers. The bigger stats you expect a player to have, the higher tier. Once you do this exercise you'll have a good feel for when the talent pool begins to shrink and can draft accordingly.

Obviously you should expect changes between now and August. I hope so, because there's a lot of white space in the first two tiers and the fifth tier. There are a bunch of rookies that will impact this as well as free agent movement. Consider this simply a first draft of what will eventually be a sensational, dynamic, mega-awesome tier system come August (cue the fireworks!).

2014 running back tiers
1,600+ total yards, 11+ TDs 1,400+ total yards, 9+ TDs 1,250+ total yards, 8+ TDs 1,100+ total yards, 7+ TDs
Jamaal Charles Eddie Lacy DeMarco Murray Giovani Bernard
LeSean McCoy Adrian Peterson Doug Martin Chris Johnson
Matt Forte Le'Veon Bell Arian Foster Knowshon Moreno
  Marshawn Lynch Alfred Morris Ray Rice
    Ryan Mathews C.J. Spiller
    Zac Stacy Steven Jackson
    Reggie Bush Maurice Jones-Drew
      LeGarrette Blount
1,000+ total yards, 6+ TDs 900+ total yards, 5+ TDs High-end backups Low-end backups
Shane Vereen Donald Brown Stevan Ridley Latavius Murray
Frank Gore Chris Ivory DeAngelo Williams Marcus Lattimore
Ben Tate Andre Ellington Rashard Mendenhall Darren McFadden
Fred Jackson Andre Brown Montee Ball Bryce Brown
  Lamar Miller Shonn Greene Mike Tolbert
  Joique Bell BenJarvus Green-Ellis Mike James
  Rashad Jennings Pierre Thomas Daniel Thomas
    Danny Woodhead James Starks
    Khiry Robinson Mark Ingram
    Trent Richardson Jacquizz Rodgers
    Darren Sproles  

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard .

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Player News
Andre Williams shining early
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) Giants rookie running back Andre Williams impressed coaches at Wednesday's practice and continued to be used in goal-line packages, reports the team's website. Williams "is a rookie, he’s got a lot of burst, a lot of energy and he’s very fresh, so I was excited about what he did," running backs coach Craig Johnson said.

Williams is trying to carve out a niche in a backfield that includes Rashad Jennings, David Wilson and Peyton Hillis.


Panthers tweak roster
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) The Panthers waived center Jared Wheeler and linebacker Billy Boyko and signed former Titans center Kevin Matthews.  

Jameel McClain returns to full practice
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) Giants linebacker Jameel McClain, who left Tuesday's practice with a foot problem, was a full participant Wednesday. "He did well," coach Tom Coughlin said. "He came out and practiced and went the whole practice, so I think he’s fine. A little sore, but he was able to go."

McClain is vying to start at middle linebacker while Jon Beason (foot) is out.


Lions place Ziggy Ansah on PUP list
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) The Lions placed defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, who's recovering from shoulder surgery, on the PUP list. Ansah had eight sacks as a rookie and is fully expected to be ready for the season opener.

Report: Terrance West goes on injury list
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) The Browns put rookie running back Terrance West on the non-football injury list, reports NFL Network. The reason was not immediately clear. West is slated to compete with Ben Tate for the starting job.

Report: Golden Tate put on PUP list
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) The Lions put receiver Golden Tate on the PUP list to start training camp, reports NFL Network. Tate's injury was not immediately known.

NaVorro Bowman starts on PUP list as expected
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) As expected, the 49ers put All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman on the PUP list. Bowman suffered a torn ACL and MCL in the NFC Championship Game and is not expected to return until midseason.

Vikes waive Spencer Nealy, add Michael Higgins
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) The Vikings waived defensive end Spencer Nealy, who was recently suspended four games for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. To fill his spot, Minnesota signed former Saints tight end Mike Higgins.

Jamaal Charles more than doubles his salary
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles received a two-year contract extension that includes $18.1 million in new money, reports NFL Network. Instead of making $3.9 million in 2014, Charles will earn $8.3 million.

Charles' new contract, which runs through 2017, makes him the NFL's second-highest paid back behind Adrian Peterson.


Justin Smith ready to go after shoulder surgery
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/23/2014) 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith had offseason shoulder surgery to repair damage he sustained in camp a year ago, reports CSNBayArea.com. Smith, 34, spent the offseason rehabbing and missed all the on-field drills.

But Smith, who did not miss a game last year, says he's ready to go. "I feel healthy compared to last year," Smith said. "I feel a lot better than I did last year. This is it. This is the one I’m thinking about."


 
 
 
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