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Offseason Extra: WR tiers for 2014

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Early Tiers for 2014: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs

Two years ago I wrote a "rule" worth following when drafting receivers. The gist: Don't get caught without enough receivers you can confidently start. Kind of a no-brainer, but it's designed to remind you not to overlook the position in your quest to build your team.

(In other words, don't forget about receivers when you go chasing running backs.)

Things get hairy when you don't have enough quality receivers. With a fifth-round pick in a recent mock we did, I passed on Keenan Allen as my No. 2 receiver for Steven Jackson as my No. 4 running back. At the time I figured going with Jackson would bolster my running back depth, considering how thin that position gets. But all I did was trade a roster headache for a starting lineup headache -- I wound up with James Jones, Dwayne Bowe and Marvin Jones as my second, third and fourth receivers. In a perfect world I find a way to rotate those three in my lineup and maximize my Fantasy points. In reality, I have three suspect receivers I have to gamble with from week to week instead of one guy I could confidently start.

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The truth is that the number of receivers you'd confidently start isn't getting bigger. In 2012, there were only 15 receivers who averaged 10-plus Fantasy points per week, a number that ticked up to 17 in 2013, though it included three players who played in six or fewer games. Four wideouts topped the 200-point mark in 2013 and 15 scored 150-plus points. Those numbers are pretty much on par with what we've gotten from receivers over the last few years. The NFL is more of a passing league but it hasn't helped produce more prolific Fantasy wideouts.

Does this mean we should put a premium on receivers? I'd say so, but not to the point where you ignore other positions. Just to the point where you cover your starting spots. By doing so you should feel at least reasonably comfortable, if not out-of-your-skin excited, with who you'll roll with. If the ultimate goal in drafting receivers is to get ones that finish in the Top 24, then aiming to get one when the first 24 receivers go off the board is a good plan. Getting three guys hoping to land one that finishes in the Top 24? Not as good of a plan.

There's a built-in bonus with aiming for quality receivers for your starting spots: You won't have to draft many backups. Say you end up with Julio Jones and Pierre Garcon in a standard-scoring league that requires two starting receivers. Other than the bye week, under what circumstance would you consider sitting either guy? Even if the Falcons or Redskins played at Seattle (neither one does in 2014; the Redskins host the Seahawks though) you'd still start these guys. So how many backups do you need? One? Two? Two at the most -- that way you can dedicate more space to other positions.

When the studs are gone

Not everyone is going to be able to snag two or three great receivers. For those people, here's help.

When a talented player and a golden opportunity intersect, there's usually an abundance of stats to follow. Technically, every player in the NFL is talented and opportunities come every week. But it's those who take advantage of their moments who become heroes in our game.

For receivers, there's an added factor for them to be successful: A good quarterback. Usually that's needed in order for a receiver to shine, though the case of Josh Gordon in 2013 suggests otherwise. It doesn't have to be an elite passer like Peyton Manning or a cannon-armed stud like Ben Roethlisberger either -- just someone capable of regularly delivering accurate passes to receivers who get open. So long as all of that happens, there are chances for receivers to break out.

After the first 70 or so picks, you're going to need a list of wideouts who can either provide a spark off the Fantasy bench or even be a potential starter. The deeper the league, and frankly the more points each catch is worth, the more demand there will be for receivers. Among the players left over by the mid-point of the draft will include older guys who have familiar names but are removed from elite status, pass catchers with unfulfilled potential and youngsters who have proven little.

The older guys sound good. Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings. We've seen guys like those catch for 1,000 yards and a bunch of touchdowns before. Doesn't mean they're going to again. They're all 30 years or older and they all struggled for various reasons last year. Hard to trust them.

Then there are people like Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Steve Johnson and Justin Blackmon. Again, guys who have displayed amazing potential but still have their warts be it a weak quarterback, injuries, inconsistency or a suspension with no confirmed return date. No doubt these guys will have good weeks, but how many and how often? Hard to trust them.

But then you have young players who haven't necessarily posted huge numbers but still have ... potential. You'll hear us use that word all the time. It's something to hang your hat on, and if last year's breakout receivers are any indication, it's not necessarily a term with a hollow description.

Diamonds in the rough

Josh Gordon. Alshon Jeffery. Anquan Boldin. Keenan Allen. Julian Edelman. Marvin Jones. Riley Cooper. Michael Floyd. These are the only receivers to finish as Top 24 options and weren't taken with a Top 80 pick. And it's not like those last four set the world on fire -- each of them averaged between 8.0 and 8.6 Fantasy points per game and combined for 20 games with 10-plus points. Not great, but certainly serviceable.

(Maybe their finish in 2013 speaks to the greater plan of landing stud receivers for your starting lineup when you can.)

But it's worth considering what made them great. Three had great quarterbacks, four had over 130 targets, five are considered freak athletes, six are under the age of 27, seven are under the age of 30. And obviously all of them had plenty of playing time.

But with the exception of Gordon, who established himself as an elite wideout, the rest had a great teammate helping them get open. And if a very good, young player has someone drawing coverage away then the opportunity to put up numbers presents itself.

So with all of this as the criteria, here are some possible receivers worth keeping in mind as mid- to late-round picks in drafts this summer.

Jarrett Boykin, Packers (25 years old by end of season)
If James Jones leaves as a free agent then the Packers should feel fairly comfortable with Boykin. Per ProFootballFocus.com, Boykin caught just 21 of 35 passes for 435 yards and one score on catches 10-plus yards off the line of scrimmage last season. It's not great, but it shouldn't be a clear-cut indicator that Boykin is only a short-area guy.

Marlon Brown, Ravens (23 years old by Week 1)
Started 2013 strong -- thanks to replacing injured receiver Jacoby Jones -- but became really volatile in the last two thirds of the season. A strong offseason and push for a starting job this summer could make him a breakout candidate.

DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (22 years old by Week 1)
Hopkins really had only a couple of good moments in his rookie year. Despite catching 52 passes for 802 yards, he scored just twice, including only once after a game-winner in Week 2. He still has talent worth recognizing and the Texans should upgrade at quarterback.

Marvin Jones, Bengals (24 years old by Week 1)
If A.J. Green is on the field then Jones will be in single coverage quite often. That was the case for much of 2013, though Jones wasn't on the field as much as you would have thought. He never had more than 77.8 pct. of the snaps and was under the 60 pct. snap mark 13 times, including the first nine games of the season. With Hue Jackson in charge we'll see if Jones can surge.

Terrance Williams, Cowboys (25 years old by midseason)
His games when Miles Austin went down in 2013 were fabulous, but he couldn't keep it up. Williams posted 56 Fantasy points in Weeks 5 through 8 and 30 in the eight games after. The drop off is scary but if the Cowboys are wise they'll let Austin and his $5.5 million contract walk this spring and give Williams a starting job. He'll be facing single coverage constantly so long as Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are on the field.

Tiering up

Consider it a must to determine your receiver rankings before you draft. When you do you'll quickly see just how thin the position is. Only seven receivers are in my first two tiers and then there's a logjam over the next three tiers. It stresses just how top-heavy the position really is.

Remember, the point of tiers is to sort players by specific expectations. Then when your draft rolls on you'll be able to know when a position is getting thin. When you see that happen, jump in and grab a player at the highest tier level available. It'll help you draft efficiently and stay true to your own board.

Top Tier Second Tier Third Tier Fourth Tier
1,500+ yards, 11+ TDs 1,300+ yards, 10+ TDs 1,200+ yards, 9+ TDs 1,100+ yards, 8+ TDs
Calvin Johnson Julio Jones Jordy Nelson Larry Fitzgerald
Josh Gordon Dez Bryant Randall Cobb Andre Johnson
Demaryius Thomas   Antonio Brown DeSean Jackson
Brandon Marshall   Alshon Jeffery Vincent Jackson
A.J. Green   Keenan Allen Eric Decker
    Michael Crabtree  
    Pierre Garcon  
Fifth Tier Sixth Tier Upside Tier Sleepers
1,000+ yards, 7+ TDs 900+ yards, 6+ TDs 800+ yards, 6+ TDs  
Reggie Wayne Percy Harvin Tavon Austin Marlon Brown
Victor Cruz T.Y. Hilton Marques Colston Jarrett Boykin
Cordarrelle Patterson Dwayne Bowe Justin Blackmon DeAndre Hopkins
Julian Edelman Roddy White Steve Johnson Rueben Randle
Wes Welker Michael Floyd Kendall Wright  
  Riley Cooper Marvin Jones  
  Mike Wallace Terrance Williams  
  Torrey Smith Cecil Shorts  
  James Jones    

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Packers' Aaron Rodgers named NFL MVP at NFL Honors
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was named the 2015 NFL MVP at the NFL Honors awards show, held Saturday at the Phoenix Symphony Hall in Phoenix, Ariz.

Rodgers played all 16 regular-season games in 2014 for just the second time in the last five seasons, completing 65.6 percent of his passes while racking up 4,381 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. He also added two more touchdowns on the ground while gaining 269 rushing yards on 43 carries.

Several other awards were handed out at the ceremony Saturday, as follows.

AP Offensive Player of the Year: DeMarco Murray, Cowboys

AP Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Odell Beckham, Giants

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aaron Donald, Rams

AP Comeback Player of the Year: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

AP Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Cardinals

AP Assistant Coach of the Year: Todd Bowles, Cardinals

Walter Payton Man of Year: Thomas Davis, Panthers

Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award: Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

Salute to Service Award: Jared Allen, Bears

NFL.com Fantasy Player of the Year: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers

FedEx Air Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

FedEx Ground Player of the Year: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers

Deacon Jones Award: Justin Houston, Chiefs

Greatness on the Road Award: Tony Romo, Cowboys

Bridgestone Performance Play of the Year: Odell Beckham one-handed catch

Don Shula High School Coach of the Year: Bruce Larson, Somerset (Wisconsin) High School

In addition, eight finalists were voted into the Hall of Fame: running back Jerome Bettis, wide receiver Tim Brown, defensive end/linebacker Charles Haley, linebacker Junior Seau, guard Will Shields, center Mick Tingelhoff and executives Bill Polian and Ron Wolf.


Seahawks' Kam Chancellor participates in Saturday walkthrough
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor injured his knee late in Friday's practice but was well enough to participate in Saturday's walkthrough for Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports.

Coach Pete Carroll indicated optimism that Chancellor, who is considered probable to play Sunday, would be cleared to participate in the Super Bowl, per the Seahawks' pool report.

"He looked pretty good today," Carroll said. "We will make sure we test him in pregame, but he remarkably looked great today, and so that’s all we have to go on."

Chancellor is one of six Seattle players listed as probable to play in Sunday's game.


Lions WR Calvin Johnson does not need offseason surgery
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(1/31/2015) Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson indicated Saturday that he will not need to undergo offseason surgery, the Detroit Free Press reports.

Johnson had surgery on his ankle and finger last offseason, and while he missed three games due to injury in October, he played every game from November onward despite being limited by an ankle injury in practice. The Lions wide receiver finished with 71 receptions for 1,077 yards and eight touchdowns in 2014.


Patriots upgrade center Bryan Stork to probable for Super Bowl
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(1/31/2015) The Patriots have upgraded center Bryan Stork to probable for Sunday's Super Bowl, the team announced Saturday. 

Stork was considered questionable with a knee injury after missing the AFC Championship game and was limited in practice Friday. The Patriots are currently 1-point favorites against the Seahawks Sunday.


Geno Smith hopeful Jets bring back Percy Harvin in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Jets quarterback Geno Smith knows he can't make the ultimate decision, but he wants to see Percy Harvin back in New York in 2015.

"I would love for Percy to come back," Smith said. "Obviously I can’t make that decision, but from my short time with him he’s been a great teammate. He’s obviously a dynamic player and I’d love to see what he can do in this new offense."

Harvin played eight games with the Jets in 2014, catching 29 passes for 350 yards. 

However, Harvin is due $10.5 million in base salary in 2014, and is under contract until 2018.


Eagles' Nick Foles expecting to be starter in Philadelphia next year
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(1/31/2015) Eagles quarterback Nick Foles said he is expecting to be back in Philadelphia in 2015, leading the offesne.

"My expectation is to be out there and be the starting guy," Foles said, according to CSNPhilly.com. "I expect to be out there with my teammates leading them. I’ve never thought otherwise throughout this whole time. 


"I know there’s been a lot of things said, but the only thing I’m worried about is making myself the best player, the best person to help lead my team."

Foles, who threw for 2,163 yards and 13 touchdowns in an injury-shortened season, expects to be back at full strength by the time training camp rolls around.

"Completely healthy, ready to go," he said. "Just grinding away. Just can’t wait to get back out there."


Jets' Geno Smith doesn't know if he will start in 2015
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(1/31/2015) Jets quarterback Geno Smith said Saturday he is unsure of his status with the team and has not received a definitive answer from new coach Todd Bowles on whether he will be the starter in 2015, according to Rich Cimini of ESPN.

Smith, who threw for 2,525 yards with 13 touchdowns in 2014, also isn't sure if the Jets will try to draft a quarterback in the first round like Jamies Winston or Marcus Mariota, but he would welcome the challenge as more competition.


Cardinals coach Bruce Arians: 'It's really (Fitzgerald's) decision'
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told reporters Friday he really wants to see wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald back in Arizona next season.

"I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t," Arians said. "We definitely, desperately want him to stay. He knows that. It’s really his decision."

Fitzgerald has a salary cap hit of $23.6 million for 2015 and the team will work to get that number down in the offseason. Team president Michael Bidwill said this week contract talks won't start fully until after the Super Bowl.

"I’m hoping and praying every day that it does happen," Arians said. "I’ve expressed to him personally how much it means to us."

Fitzgerald has not reached 1,000 yards receiving in the past three seasons and totaled 784 in 2014 on 63 catches with two touchdowns.


Seahawks corner Byron Maxwell set to test free agency
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/31/2015) Seahawks cornerback Byron Maxwell is ready to hit the free-agent market during the upcoming offseason and feels the Super Bowl will be his last game in Seattle.

"I’m the prettiest girl at the dance right now," Maxwell said. "But yeah, it’s one of those things I’m excited about it. I would love to be here, but I’m ready to see what’s out there and see how things work out."

Maxwell, who was heavily targeted this year with the Seahawks secondary filled with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, grabbed two interceptions and defended 11 passes.

"Coming into the season I already knew teams were going to try me," Maxwell said. "But it was cool. I accept that. That’s more opportunities for me to get the rock and put my name out there."


Report: Titans S Bernard Pollard wants to be released
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(1/31/2015) Titans safety Bernard Pollard has requested a release from his contract, The Tennessean reports. He is scheduled to make $3.1 million in the final season of his two-year deal in 2015.

Pollard submitted his request to general manager Ruston Webster at the end of the regular season, per the report. He is recovering from a ruptured Achilles and wants to play in 2015, but said on The Tennessean's Bernard Pollard Show earlier this month that he was unsure of his future with the Titans.

"I am not getting any younger, so I want to win, I really do. I want to win,'' Pollard said. "Looking at how things took place this year, looking at where (the Titans) need to be for next year, that is a tough, tough question, and I don't even know if they can give me the answer. I have one year on my deal, but it is going to take some time."

Pollard has been out of his walking boot for a month and is making progress in rehab. He suffered his Achilles injury in Week 5 and was placed on injured reserve.


 
 
 
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