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2014 Fantasy Outlooks: Seattle Seahawks

Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 2013, and the nucleus is in place to make another run at the title this season. Could Seattle be the first team to repeat as champions since New England in 2003-04? It wouldn't be a shock.

The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL, a winning quarterback on the rise in Russell Wilson and a dominating home-field advantage. But can they count on their best offensive player this season in Marshawn Lynch? It's something Fantasy owners want to know as well.

Lynch quieted retirement talks when he showed up for mandatory minicamp in June. He might not be happy with his contract, but at least he's with the team. For now.

The reason we're worried about Lynch is that his workload from 2013 could catch up with him. He had 403 total touches last year through the Super Bowl, and running backs with 400-plus touches tend to struggle the following year (read this for a more detailed breakdown on that subject).

We're concerned Lynch, who was the No. 4 Fantasy running back in standard leagues last season, won't be the same this year. Seattle has quality replacement options if Lynch misses any time in Christine Michael and Robert Turbin, but they are unproven, leaving a level of uncertainty. I've been touting Michael as a sleeper since the Super Bowl, but we just don't know if he would be as good as Lynch.

A downturn for Lynch could mean more passing for Wilson, who has a revamped receiving corps. Golden Tate is gone as a free agent to Detroit and Sidney Rice is coming off a torn ACL. But Percy Harvin is healthy, Doug Baldwin is in line for a bigger role and rookie Paul Richardson brings even more speed to the field.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out and Lynch could be the difference-maker in another Super Bowl run for the Seahawks. For Fantasy owners, drafting Lynch in the first round could also determine your playoff fate.

Bounce-back candidate ... Percy Harvin

The Seahawks won the Super Bowl with basically no contribution from their big offseason acquisition prior to last season. Harvin appeared in one game in the regular season because of hip surgery and had one catch for 17 yards in Week 11. He made some plays in the postseason, including an 87-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the Super Bowl, but now he's ready to shine.

He's 100 percent healthy this offseason and Fantasy owners should count on him as a No. 2 receiver. He's worth drafting in Round 5 in the majority of leagues. Just look at his resume.

Harvin's best season in the NFL was 2011 with the Vikings when he had 87 catches for 967 yards and six touchdowns and 52 carries for 345 yards and two touchdowns. He's capable of 1,200 total yards and eight touchdowns with the Seahawks -- and he can do it all from the backfield, lining up in the slot or split out wide.

There's obvious risk of injury since he's played only 10 games the past two years in the regular season, but Seattle is confident he's ready to go. As long as he doesn't get hurt prior to Draft Day, you can expect a bounce-back year in a big way.

Just a No. 2 quarterback ... Russell Wilson

There's a lot to like about Wilson, but I don't consider him a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. He's just a No. 2 quarterback in standard leagues with the chance to start on occasion.

Wilson's production has been identical the first two seasons of his career, having finished No. 9 in Fantasy points both years. But last year, for example, he was better than Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. Are you drafting Wilson ahead of any of those guys? I doubt it.

The Seahawks have already said they don't expect Wilson to throw 500 times. He had 407 passes last year for an average of 192.8 yards per game. Keep in mind 28 teams attempted at least 500 passes last year, including nine with at least 600 attempts.

Wilson could throw more if the running game falters, but not dramatically enough to affect his output. He's just too inconsistent, as last year proved with seven games with 20 or more Fantasy points and eight games with 16 points or less -- including four in a row to close the regular season.

Where he thrives is his lack of turnovers (19 career interceptions) and rushing prowess (an average of 514 yards per year with five total touchdowns). He's also been great at home or indoors. Wilson had at least 18 Fantasy points in eight of 12 games at home or indoors last season and seven of 11 as a rookie in 2012. This year, Wilson has two games indoors along with his eight home games, so plan accordingly.

I have no problem if someone wants to draft Wilson as a starter, but I like him as a top backup. I plan to target Wilson if I draft a questionable No. 1 option like Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler or Nick Foles. He's a great value pick in the later rounds.

Sleeper receiver ... Doug Baldwin

2013 Touches Leaders
776 total touches
Marshawn Lynch 337 (301 car., 36 rec.) 43.4%
Robert Turbin 85 (77 car., 8 rec.) 11.0%
Golden Tate 67 (3 car., 64 rec.) 8.6%
Doug Baldwin 52 (2 car., 50 rec.) 6.7%
Zach Miller 33 rec. 4.3%
All Others 202 26.0%

Baldwin isn't someone who is going to start for you week in and week out. He might even be someone you draft or add via waivers and then drop in a week. But at some point in the season Baldwin will be a quality Fantasy option.

He played well in 2013 with 50 catches for 778 yards and five touchdowns. That makes two of three years with at least 50 catches, 775 yards and four touchdowns in his career. He also was a standout during the NFL playoffs with 13 catches for 202 yards and one touchdown in three games.

Baldwin is expected to replace Tate in the starting lineup, and Tate led the Seahawks with 64 catches for 898 yards and five touchdowns. So it's not like Baldwin will make a dramatic leap, but he can still post useful stats.

I like Baldwin with a late-round flier in deep standard leagues and as a No. 5 receiver in PPR formats. He's someone to keep your eye on during the season.

Schedule analysis

The Seahawks open the season with three consecutive games against playoff teams from last year in Green Bay, San Diego and Denver, although the Packers and Broncos are at home. You're going to love the Seahawks in Week 6 against Dallas at home and Seattle avoids facing the tough defenses in Arizona and San Francisco until Week 12. The downside to that is the Seahawks close the season against the Cardinals, 49ers and Rams in five of their final six games, with the Eagles in Week 14 the lone non-NFC West matchup.

Training camp battles

Who's the No. 2 running back? Turbin is listed ahead of Michael on the depth chart behind Lynch, but ignore that on Draft Day for Fantasy purposes. If Lynch is out for any reason, Michael will have the higher ceiling. Turbin will likely play on passing downs, but Michael would get the call for rushing plays. He's a great sleeper to target with a late-round pick and the handcuff for Lynch.

What's the pecking order at receiver? The Seahawks added two rookies this season in Richardson and Kevin Norwood and it will be interesting to see how they work into the mix. Harvin is locked into the No. 1 role and we expect Baldwin to be No. 2 ahead of Rice, who could be limited with his knee. Jermaine Kearse is someone to monitor, but Harvin and Baldwin are the only receivers to consider on Draft Day in the majority of leagues. Richardson is worth a late-round pick in dynasty and rookie-only formats because his speed will be fun to watch.

Who's the No. 2 quarterback? We hope Wilson never leaves the field, but in case he does the Seahawks could turn to Tarvaris Jackson or Terrelle Pryor, who was added this offseason via trade from Oakland. Pryor will push Jackson for the No. 2 job, but we expect the Seahawks to lean toward Jackson based on his experience. Either way, this is a scenario we never want to see, so hopefully Wilson starts all 16 games.

Bold prediction

Since I'm expecting Lynch to struggle, I'm counting on Michael to shine. He will pick up the slack if Lynch suffers from the Curse of 400. Michael is the No. 1 sleeper in Fantasy Football this season.

It's blind faith with Michael since we didn't see him do much last year (18 carries for 79 yards in just three games) and was a healthy scratch for 13 games. But he showed plenty of promise in the preseason with 16 carries for 89 yards in one outing and 11 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown in another.

Coach Pete Carroll has already called Michael a breakout candidate, and we agree. He's someone to target with a late-round pick in all leagues, and he could pay huge dividends if Lynch is forced to miss any time.

Injury report

Russell Okung (foot), questionable for start of training camp … Bruce Irvin (hip), doubtful for start of training camp … Kam Chancellor (hip), questionable for start of training camp

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Player News
49ers' Phil Dawson makes only FG try in loss vs. Seahawks
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:28 am ET) 49ers kicker Phil Dawson was successful on his only field-goal attempt Thursday, making a 40-yard kick in his team's 19-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 13.

Dawson was the victim of a flailing performance by the 49ers offense, as the team was only able to put together one long drive in the loss. The kicker has been held to only one field-goal try in each of his last two games. He'll hope to see more chances against the Raiders in Week 14.


49ers' pass catchers share very small pie in loss vs. Seahawks
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:25 am ET) There wasn't much offense to go around for the 49ers' wide receivers and tight ends in the team's 19-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 13, with wide receiver Steve Johnson leading the receiving unit with three catches for just 28 yards.

Running back Carlos Hyde led the team with 38 receiving yards, but there was simply no offense to speak of for the 49ers on Thanksgiving. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin caught three of his five targets for just 18 yards, while teammate Michael Crabtree managed just 10 yards on three catches of his own. Tight end Vernon Davis kicked in two receptions for 13 yards.

The 49ers will hope for a big bounce-back performance in Week 14 against the Raiders.


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by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:21 am ET) The 49ers couldn't find much success on the ground in Thursday's 19-3 loss to the Seahawks, with running back Frank Gore leading the way with 10 carries for just 28 yards and an eight-yard reception in Week 13.

Rookie Carlos Hyde was the more explosive of the two backs Thursday, rushing for 19 yards on five carries while catching all three of his targets for a team-high 38 receiving yards, but the Seahawks defense virtually shut down the entire 49ers offense on Thanksgiving. The pair will look to bounce back in a much better matchup against the Raiders in Week 14.


49ers QB Colin Kaepernick shut down in loss vs. Seahawks
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:18 am ET) 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick had no answer for the Seahawks defense Thursday, completing 16 of his 29 passes for only 121 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 17 rushing yards on three carries in his team's 19-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 13.

Kaepernick also took four sacks for 21 yards, giving him just 100 net yards of passing offense in the rough outing. He managed to piece together just one significant drive, taking the offense from his own 19-yard line to the Seahawks' 19-yard line before taking a sack on third down and settling for a field goal in the third quarter with the 49ers down 16-0. Kaepernick will look to get back on track in Week 14 against the Raiders.


49ers WR Michael Crabtree quiet in Week 13 after rib, knee issues
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:11 am ET) 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree caught all three of his targets for jut 10 yards in his team's 19-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 13.

Crabtree was hit by an injury almost immediately on the team's first drive but was able to resume play. The team had announced that he was dealing with a rib injury, but coach Jim Harbaugh added after the game that the receiver was also suffering from a knee injury. He's in line for a few extra days of rest going into his Week 14 matchup against the Raiders.


Seahawks CB Richard Sherman notches two INTs vs. 49ers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:08 am ET) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman picked off two passes to help spearhead a dominant performance by the Seahawks defense in his team's 19-3 win over the 49ers in Week 13.

The Seahawks were relentless against the 49ers offense on Thanksgiving, holding the opposition to only 164 total yards on offense and just 3.2 yards per play. Sherman's first interception came on a misfired 20-yard pass from San Francisco's 30-yard line that made it appear the Seattle cornerback was the intended target. His second pick came on one of San Francisco's few trips into Seattle territory as Colin Kaepernick appeared to lose the cornerback in coverage and threw another pass directly to the defender.

The Seahawks defense managed a total of four sacks and three turnovers in the win. They'll look to keep rolling in Week 14 against the Eagles.


Seahawks K Steven Hauschka nails four FGs in win vs. 49ers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:02 am ET) Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka made all four of his field-goal attempts and one extra point in Thursday's 19-3 win over the 49ers in Week 13.

Hauschka was called upon to provide plenty of points with the Seahawks offense continually stalling deep in 49ers territory. He picked up field goals of 21 and 36 yards in the second quarter before adding two more kicks from 35 and 46 yards out in the second half. He's now racked up eight field goals in his last two games, and he takes a 90 percent success rate into a Week 14 matchup with the Eagles.


Seahawks' pass catchers limited by light workload in Week 13
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/27/2014) Seahawks tight end Tony Moeaki led his offense with 63 receiving yards on just one reception in his team's 19-3 win over the 49ers in Week 13.

Moeaki caught a pass of about 12 yards near the sideline early in the second quarter and ran past his defender to bring the ball all the way down to the one-yard line before being caught. The Seahawks weren't able to punch the ball into the end zone on the drive, but a dominant performance by the defense meant the points left on the board wouldn't come back to haunt the offense.

The rest of the receiving corps didn't have much of a workload in the win Thursday, with quarterback Russell Wilson completing just 15 passes on 22 attempts. Tight end Luke Willson led the Seahawks with four receptions and six targets, gaining just 39 yards in the game. Wide receiver Jermaine Kearse managed three receptions for 34 yards, while wide receiver Doug Baldwin could only haul in two passes for 28 yards. Rookie Paul Richardson was able to catch his only target for six yards.

The Seahawks have a trip to Philadelphia on the schedule in Week 14.


Seahawks' Robert Turbin scores lone TD in win vs. 49ers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/27/2014) Seahawks running back Robert Turbin caught both of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown while adding eight rushing yards on four carries in his team's 19-3 win over the 49ers in Week 13.

Turbin grabbed a short pass to the left and was able to work his way towards the end zone and maintain his balance to score a 13-yard touchdown that put his team up 7-0 in the first quarter. The Seahawks would pile on two field goals before halftime in a game where the 49ers had virtually no answers for the Seattle defense. Turbin's touchdown was just his second of the season and his first since Week 2. He'll match up with the Eagles in Week 14.


Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch racks up 104 rushing yards Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(11/27/2014) Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch rushed for 104 yards on 20 carries while adding a seven-yard reception in his team's 19-3 win over the 49ers in Week 13.

Lynch took a heavy portion of the workload on Thanksgiving as the Seahawks jumped out to an early lead and leaned on the defense. Despite struggling against the Cardinals in Week 12, Lynch has posted three 100-yard performances on the ground in his last four games. However, he hasn't reached the end zone in any of his last three games. He'll look to rectify the recent lack of scoring against the Eagles in Week 14.


 
 
 
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