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2014 Draft Prep: Breakouts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Sleepers, 2.0 | Busts, 2.0

When I first wrote about breakouts in March, it was difficult to pare the list down to 12 guys. There are a lot of candidates to like this season.

Thankfully, I'm allowed to take another crack at it now, even though I love the players from the first list.

To recap, here are the Breakouts 1.0:

Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears
Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals
Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings
Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys
Rueben Randle, WR, Giants
Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

There isn't anything I would change about those first 12 guys as we head into the start of training camp. And I'm just as confident about the group of players listed here.

My definition of a breakout is a player who could elevate from one tier to the next. For example, in 2013, we had DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton and DeSean Jackson as breakout candidates, and all of them ended up having career years.

We hope the same happens with the players on these two lists. And, once we get into the middle of training camp and preseason action, we'll do a third version of breakouts. I'm already optimistic about the next 12 names to come.

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

Luck has basically been a breakout candidate each of his first two seasons, and he's delivered as a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback both years. But this should be a career season based on the tools he's been given. The Colts added Hakeem Nicks to go with Hilton and Reggie Wayne, who is expected to be 100 percent from last year's torn ACL. Dwayne Allen (hip) is also healthy, and Coby Fleener remains as well. The offensive line should be better, and if Trent Richardson struggles -- we're expecting him to bounce back -- then Luck will have to shoulder the offensive load. I don't have him ranked as a Top 5 quarterback because I like Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Kaepernick and Matt Ryan better, but I'm excited for Luck this year. I usually pass on Manning, Rodgers and Brees and wait for someone in the Stafford, Kaepernick, Ryan, Luck and Tony Romo group. Luck could easily ascend to new heights this year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 55-60 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Nick Foles

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys

The formula for the Cowboys this season adds up to a career year for Romo. Add a new play caller in Scott Linehan and subtract any sense of defense. Throw in an improved offensive line and a plethora of talented weapons with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams and DeMarco Murray and all it takes is for Romo to make it shine. His back should be 100 percent for the start of the season, and Romo should set a new record for pass attempts with Linehan -- he called plays for the Lions the past three years and Stafford was fourth, first and first in pass attempts. The defense likely won't slow down many opponents, and Romo has Top 5 upside. Like Luck, you can wait for Romo on Draft Day, and he will fall based on public sentiment and Fantasy bias. For those who take a chance on him this season, he will reward you with a monster campaign.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 75-80 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Nick Foles

Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans

Rookie running backs can always be hit or miss. Last season, Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard were good if not great. But Montee Ball, at this time last year, was expected to be a star and struggled in a backup role behind Knowshon Moreno. Sankey is part of a talented class this season with Terrance West, Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill and Tre Mason. But the difference for Sankey and his peers is he's expected to start in Week 1 without much competition for touches. Sure, Shonn Greene could pose a threat, but Sankey has three-down potential for a coach in Ken Whisenhunt who just rejuvenated Ryan Mathews as the offensive coordinator in San Diego. The Titans also helped Chris Johnson finish as a Top 10 Fantasy running back last year despite averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. I'm confident in Sankey finishing as a Top 20 running back this year, and I plan on drafting him in Round 3 if available.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 25-30 overall
I'd take him ahead of: C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Ryan Mathews

Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars

I was skeptical of Gerhart at first. He's been a plodder when given a chance to take over for Adrian Peterson over the past three seasons as the backup in Minnesota. But Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley has touted Gerhart as a workhorse since they signed him this offseason, and he has minimal competition for touches from Denard Robinson and Jordan Todman. The Jaguars are going to rely on their ground game with Chad Henne the starting quarterback, and Gerhart can grind his way to double digits in Fantasy points. Keep in mind the running back he's replacing -- Maurice Jones-Drew -- was a Top 20 Fantasy option last season, despite averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. But the Jaguars let Jones-Drew carry their offense -- much like they will do with Gerhart this season -- and it worked out with a positive result. The same should happen this year, and Gerhart is worth drafting in Round 4.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 35-40 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Reggie Bush, Ryan Mathews, Maurice Jones-Drew

Joique Bell, RB, Lions

As long as Bell's knee is OK -- and he appears on track for the start of training camp -- then he should be in line to build off his performance from last season when he had 650 rushing yards and eight touchdowns and 53 catches for 547 yards. The Lions, under new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, want to model themselves after the Saints, where Lombardi was previously a coach under Sean Payton. The belief is Bell will be the primary running back with Bush playing a role similar to what he had with the Saints from 2006-10. Bush will still get plenty of touches, but Bell should work at the goal line and still play a role as a receiver out of the backfield. He might end up with more Fantasy value than Bush this year, despite getting drafted a round or two later. Don't be afraid to count on Bell as a No. 2 running back this season.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 55-60 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Frank Gore

Trent Richardson, RB, Colts

He was a complete disaster last season when he got traded from the Browns to the Colts, but Indianapolis invested a first-round pick on Richardson and stand by him. The only competition he has for touches are Ahmad Bradshaw, who is coming off neck surgery from last season, and Vick Ballard, who is coming off a torn ACL. Richardson was a Top 10 Fantasy running back as a rookie in 2012, and he should rebound in a big way this year. The Colts offensive line, hopefully, will be better, and this offense should be one of the best in the NFL. It will take a lot of faith to trust Richardson as a starter, but the earliest you have to draft him is Round 4 this season. You might be able to get Richardson as a flex option, which is a great investment. If he hits, as we expect, your Fantasy team could be a dominant force based on his potential.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 50-55 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Frank Gore

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers

One of my favorite things to do is extrapolate numbers to see what a small sample size would look like over 16 games. And with Crabtree, we can take a look at his potential going back to 2012 when he first played with Kaepernick. In the seven starts Kaepernick made in 2012, Crabtree had 41 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. If you project that over 16 games, Crabtree would have finished with 94 catches for 1,360 yards and 11 touchdowns. That equates to 202 Fantasy points, which would have made Crabtree the No. 3 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues behind Calvin Johnson (214) and Brandon Marshall (210). He's healthy now from last year's Achilles injury, and he's entering a contract year. I plan to target Crabtree in Round 4 or 5 as a Top 15 receiver with Top 10 potential. He should benefit from playing with Kaepernick for a full season for the first time in his career.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 40-45 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz

Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

I'm a big fan of coach Bruce Arians and his offense in Arizona. And Arians is a big fan of Floyd this year, which he told me this offseason at the NFL owners meetings. "Michael Floyd is still developing," Arians said. "He became a 1,000-yard receiver, but he can improve as much this year as he did last year. He learned how to play hurt, he played through injuries and he made big plays." Floyd is entering his third season, and he had 65 catches for 1,041 yards and five touchdowns last season, including nine games with at least eight Fantasy points and four with double digits. He finished No. 24 in Fantasy points in 2013, but he could easily be a Top 15 Fantasy receiver. I like him as a No. 2 option with a pick in Round 5.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 60-65 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Eric Decker, DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston

Golden Tate, WR, Lions

Tate has been a good Fantasy receiver the past two years, but he's been far from great. As the No. 1 target for the Seahawks in 2013, he had 64 catches for 898 yards and five touchdowns, which was only good for being the No. 28 receiver in standard leagues. But Seattle wasn't going to mistake anyone for being a passing team, unlike Detroit. With the Lions, he goes to an offense where Stafford has attempted at least 630 passes in three consecutive years. Tate will get plenty of single coverage with Calvin Johnson, and this should be his first chance for 1,000 yards with at least six touchdowns. The best part is many Fantasy owners appear hesitant to draft Tate as a starter, so you can draft him as a No. 3 option. But I'm expecting him to be a Top 24 receiver if not a Top 20 option. He's going to thrive playing in this offense.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 75-80 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Julian Edelman, DeSean Jackson, Eric Decker

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

Sanders was productive last season with the Steelers in a career year with 67 catches for 740 yards and six touchdowns. But he should be able to crack 1,000 yards for the first time with around seven touchdowns. He's replacing Eric Decker for the Broncos, and someone has to pick up that slack. Decker had 87 catches for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2013 on 137 targets, and Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker can't do everything on their own. The Broncos plan to move Sanders around in the slot and outside, and he will rarely face the top cornerback or double coverage. We know Peyton Manning is a master at finding mismatches, and Sanders should have plenty of those. He's looking like a Top 20 Fantasy receiver worth drafting in Round 5. But like Tate, you might be able to draft him as your No. 3 receiver, which is amazing value.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 70-75 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith

Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

Wright had a solid season last year with 94 catches for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns. He finished No. 31 in Fantasy points in a standard league, but if he scored three more touchdowns he would have been No. 21. The catches and yards shouldn't differ much this season as the No. 1 option for the Titans in the passing game, and Whisenhunt has a good history with receivers during his past three stops as either the head coach or offensive coordinator at Pittsburgh, Arizona and San Diego. He had 1,000-yard receivers in Hines Ward, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston and Keenan Allen, and Wright should be next in terms of breakout potential. Jake Locker has to stay healthy and continue to focus on Wright, who was No. 14 for receivers in targets with 140. He's another third-year receiver to like this season with a pick in Round 6 in standard leagues and Round 4 in PPR formats.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 90-95 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Marques Colston, T.Y Hilton, Sammy Watkins

Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens

I realize my ranking of Pitta as the No. 4 tight end is the most aggressive you will likely see. And yes, I really would draft him ahead of Vernon Davis, Jason Witten and Jordan Cameron, among others. But I'm expecting a huge season for Pitta, even bigger than his previous career year in 2012 when he had 61 catches, 669 yards and seven touchdowns to finish No. 7 in Fantasy points among tight ends. New Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak relies on tight ends more than anyone else since his former team, the Texans, targeted tight ends more than any other team since 2008. We also know Joe Flacco favors Pitta as his No. 1 weapon, and Baltimore could struggle to run the ball again this year, especially with an upcoming Ray Rice suspension. Pitta might not get drafted ahead of Davis, Witten or Cameron, but he should have more Fantasy points. I like waiting on Pitta with a mid-round pick because he should be a Top 5 tight end this year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 75-80 overall
I'd take him ahead of: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron

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Player News
Arian Foster questionable for game against Giants
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:55 pm ET) A hamstring injury has Texans featured back Arian Foster listed as questionable for Week 3 against the host Giants.

Foster is off to a brilliant start with successive 100-yard performances. He has 55 carries for 241 yards and one touchdown.


Two deemed out by Colts for Week 3
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:45 pm ET) The Colts have ruled out linebacker Jerrell Freeman (hamstring) and defensive tackle Arthur Jones (ankle) for their Sunday game at Jacksonville.

Listed as questionable are defensive tackle Ricky Jean Francois (ankle), wideout Hakeem Nicks (illness) and guard Joe Reitz (ankle). Cornerback Darius Butler (neck), wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (groin), offensive lineman Khaled Holmes (ankle) and cornerback Greg Toler (ribs).


Bills issue Friday injury report for Week 3
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:33 pm ET) Rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins has been deemed probable by the Bills for the Sunday game against San Diego. He has practiced in full all week with a rib injury.

Also probable are defensive tackle Stefan Charles (hip), tight end Lee Smith (toe), guard Chris Williams (back) and wide receiver Robert Woods (ankle).

Linebacker Randell Johnson (knee) and safety Jonathan Meeks (neck) have been ruled out while linebacker Keith Rivers (groin) has been deemed doubtful.


Keenan Allen participates early in Friday practice
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:24 pm ET) Chargers wideout Keenan Allen provided some encouragement in regard to his availability Sunday in Buffalo with his participation during the open-to-media portion of Friday practice. He was in full uniform.

Allen has been dealing with a groin injury. He has just 10 catches for 92 yards in the first two games combined.


Alshon Jeffery limited again Friday
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(2:19 pm ET) Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was a limited participant in Friday's practice session yet again, as he continues to deal with a hamstring injury. The team has one more practice session Saturday before Week 3 against the Jets Monday.  

Eric Berry set to sit Sunday against Dolphins
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:18 pm ET) Chiefs strong safety Eric Berry has been ruled out for the Sunday game in Miami. An ankle injury that knocked him out in Week 2 continues to plague him.

Brandon Marshall held out of Friday's practice as well
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(2:18 pm ET) Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall was held out of practice yet again Friday, as he continues to deal with an ankle injury.

The Bears practice once more Saturday ahead of their Week 3 tilt with the Jets on Monday Night Football, but Marshall may not need to practice either way. He played -- and scored three touchdowns -- in Week 2 despite missing all of practice.  


Bengals release Friday injury report
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:14 pm ET) The Bengals have ruled out wide receiver Marvin Jones for the Sunday game against Tennessee with a foot injury that has prevented him from playing in either of the first two games. He is the lone certain scratch listed on the Friday injury report.

Several players have been deemed doubtful, however, including linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion), running back Rex Burkhead (knee), linebacker Sean Porter (hamstring), defensive tackle Brandon Thompson (knee) and guard Kevin Zeitler (calf).

Defensive end Carlos Dunlap (knee), offensive lineman Mike Pollak (knee), tackle Andrew Whitworth (knee) and safety Shawn Williams (groin) are all listed as probable.


Panthers defense in good shape for Week 3
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(2:12 pm ET)  The Panthers listed three players from the defensive side of the ball on the injury report for Week 3 against the Steelers, but are expected to have all of them available for Sunday's game.

Defensive linemen Colin Cole (non-injury related) and Dwan Edwards (back), as well as linebacker Thomas Davis (hip) are all probable for Week 3. 


Calf a non-issue for Greg Olsen; probable for Week 3
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(2:08 pm ET) Panthers tight end Greg Olsen was able to practice in full both Thursday and Friday, despite being limited earlier in the week with a calf injury. He is officially probable for Week 3 against the Steelers, and is not expected to have any issues come Sunday.

 
 
 
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