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2014 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Breakouts, 2.0 | Sleepers, 2.0

When I look at a player who could be a bust, it's not always about their talent -- or lack thereof. A lot of it relates to their potential Average Draft Position.

For example, the first version of this busts column was published in April, prior to the NFL Draft, so gauging where a player would be taken by Fantasy owners was difficult. An owner might have targeted -- and still might -- Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew as starting options, which is a mistake.

Now, we have a better understanding of ADP, so we can see the players who could struggle based on where they are being drafted. But first, let's take a look back at the original list.

To recap, here are the Busts 1.0 ...

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Nick Foles, QB, Eagles
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
Chris Johnson, RB, Jets
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Raiders
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles
Eric Decker, WR, Jets
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

Based on the response, we felt it was worth discussing a few of these players again with Newton, Foles, Lynch and Jackson. Many Fantasy owners are counting on these guys as starting options, but I have no interest in them based on where I'll have to take them.

It's the crux of how I feel about all of the players listed here. I would gladly draft Lynch in Round 3 or Foles in Round 11, but they won't be there.

Nick Foles, QB, Eagles

The Eagles did a nice job in adding talent around Foles this offseason, even with getting rid of Jackson. They brought back Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, traded for Darren Sproles and drafted Jordan Matthews. Zach Ertz will see a bigger role, and LeSean McCoy is still a stud catching passes out of the backfield. But losing Jackson will hurt since Foles targeted him more than any other receiver (70 times), and he completed 71.4 percent of those passes to Jackson. I'm also expecting Foles to regress statistically since he had just two interceptions on the season, and 10 of his 27 touchdowns (37 percent of his production) and 834 of his 2,891 passing yards (29 percent) came against two of the three worst pass defenses in 2013 with Oakland and Minnesota. He does benefit with two games against Dallas' defense this year, but that first meeting with the Cowboys isn't until Week 13. Before then he gets four games against elite defenses in San Francisco, St. Louis, Arizona and Carolina and then Seattle in Week 14. It won't be easy for Foles, and opposing defenses should have a better understanding of Chip Kelly's offense. I'll take Foles as a low-end starter, but I'm not drafting him prior to Round 8.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 60-65 overall
I'd rather have: Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

It's hard to argue against Newton because he's been so good since starting for the Panthers as a rookie in 2011. He's never been outside the Top 7 for Fantasy quarterbacks, but that will change this year. His passing yards have declined each of the past three years. His rushing touchdowns as well. And now he has a revamped receiving corps -- Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are gone with Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant in their place -- and changes on the offensive line. Newton should be fine coming off ankle surgery in March, but he's lost valuable time with his new receivers to develop a rapport. Newton also struggled to close last season with just one 20-point Fantasy outing in his final four games, but Carolina still went 3-1 over that stretch, which shows they can win with their running game and defense. Based on the changes at receiver, coach Ron Rivera has said the Panthers will remain run-heavy this year, which makes sense (they were No. 11 in rushing attempts in 2013). Look for Newton to be more of a caretaker than playmaker, and he's outside my Top 12 this season. I won't draft him before Round 10.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 85-90 overall
I'd rather have: Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

I've been making the case against Lynch since prior to Super Bowl when it was apparent his touches would go over the 400 mark, which happened in the win against the Broncos. He's now at serious risk for a breakdown this season. Over the past 10 years there have been 27 times where a running back has had 400 or more touches. Only five times -- Edgerrin James (2004), LaDainian Tomlinson (2005), James again (2005), Adrian Peterson (2009) and Ray Rice (2011) -- has a running back produced an increase in Fantasy points the following season. Most succumb to injury or just general wear and tear, and Lynch is a physical runner to begin with. He's also upset about his contract, and the Seahawks have a potential stud waiting in the wings with Christine Michael, who is a top sleeper. I would draft Lynch in Round 2, but he likely won't fall that far since most Fantasy owners still view him as a Top 5 overall pick. That's too risky for me, and I can see Lynch having similar troubles to Arian Foster and Rice, who were coming off 400-touch seasons in 2013 and struggled. If you do draft Lynch in the first 24 picks make sure you handcuff him with Michael.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 10-15 overall
I'd rather have: Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Le'Veon Bell

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions

Bush is still going to have a good season and be a Top 20 Fantasy running back. But he's going to regress this year and shouldn't be considered a stud. He's had at least 200 carries each of the past three years, but the Lions will likely give more work to Joique Bell this season, who will also work at the goal line. Bush is still a candidate for 50-plus catches, which he did last season for the first time since 2008, and he can still attain 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns. But don't rely on him the same way you have the past three years when he was the featured option for the Dolphins (2011-12) and Lions (2012). Bell's role will expand significantly, and the Lions have talked about using Bush like he was with the Saints based on the connection with new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. I've seen Bush being drafted as early as Round 3, which is too soon, and I'd rather have Andre Ellington, Bishop Sankey, C.J. Spiller and Toby Gerhart. All four of those running backs are flawed to some degree, but their ceiling is higher this season if Bell is 100 percent, since he'll cut into Bush's role this year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 30-35 overall
I'd rather have: Bishop Sankey, C.J. Spiller, Toby Gerhart

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

The Chargers are saying all the right things about Mathews this season. New offensive coordinator Frank Reich said Mathews is "our guy," and general manager Tom Telesco called Mathews "our bell cow." That all makes sense and should be accurate, but the addition of Donald Brown will cut into Mathews' workload. And having Danny Woodhead on board is also a detriment. One statement from the team directly to me came from coach Mike McCoy at the owners meetings when he said the Chargers could use a running back by committee approach. McCoy learned under John Fox when the two were in Carolina, and he's used to having multiple backs handle the load. "You get in there, you get on a little bit of a roll and you're going to stay in there," McCoy said in March. I still like Mathews as a No. 2 running back, but he's outside my Top 20. The earliest I would draft him is Round 5.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 30-35 overall
I'd rather have: C.J. Spiller, Toby Gerhart, Shane Vereen

Ben Tate, RB, Browns

I had high hopes for Tate last season with the Texans. Foster was coming off a heavy workload in 2012, and Tate was entering a contract year. The thought was Foster, if he missed time, would give Tate an opportunity to shine. Well, Tate got that opportunity after Foster suffered a season-ending back injury, but he struggled. He had seven games in 2013 with at least 15 carries and finished with double digits in Fantasy points just twice. The Browns are going to give him plenty of chances to carry the ball, but this is a team that failed to have a running back rush for more than 75 yards in a game with only four rushing touchdowns. And Tate is expected to share touches with talented rookie Terrance West, which has prompted coach Mike Pettine to say the Browns will be running back by committee. I don't mind Tate as a flex option this year because there will be moments of solid production. But if you draft Tate as a starter he will almost certainly let you down. The better move is to pass on Tate in Round 5 and wait for West in Round 8.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 50-55 overall
I'd rather have: Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell

Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants

Jennings has a great opportunity in front of him. He's expected to start for the Giants, and he could be a three-down back based on their offense. But I'm skeptical of drafting him as a starting Fantasy option, and he should only be considered a flex. The Giants drafted Andre Williams, who could work at the goal line, and David Wilson (neck) appears on track to return. Jennings should be the best Giants running back this year, but it looks like a crowded backfield. Jennings is also 29 and stepping into a starting role for the first time in his career. He's had trouble staying healthy, and last year was the first time he had sustained success when he took over for the injured Darren McFadden in Oakland. Jennings performed well with at least nine Fantasy points in six of his final eight games, including double digits in five of those outings. But I'd be shocked if he can replicate that performance, especially in competition for touches with Wilson and Williams. If Wilson isn't able to return I'll change my opinion on Jennings, but I wouldn't draft him before Round 6 in the majority of leagues.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 50-55 overall
I'd rather have: Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

Most casual NFL fans don't like when players talk about holdouts or seem to be upset about their job status. The public perception is these players are getting paid a lot of money to play a game. But you have to feel a little sorry for Johnson. He's been the best player for the Texans for the majority of his career, and he might have been the best receiver of his era with a better quarterback situation. But he's struggled through the Matt Schaub tenure, and instead of upgrading the position this offseason the team gave him an unheralded rookie in Tom Savage and a career backup in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Johnson might not show up for training camp, and it's unlikely he gets traded. Johnson has never scored more than nine touchdowns in a season, with 11 combined the past three years, and his ability to catch 100-plus passes and 1,400-plus yards -- which he's done four of the past six years -- is in jeopardy with the new quarterback. Johnson is still worth drafting as a No. 2 receiver, but he shouldn't come off the board before Round 5 in most formats.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 40-45 overall
I'd rather have: Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon

DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

Kelly didn't make Jackson into a great receiver. He was pretty good under Andy Reid as well. So Jackson can still perform at a high level under new coach Jay Gruden, but anyone expecting Jackson to be a No. 1 receiver like he was in 2013 is mistaken. And he might not be a Top 24 Fantasy receiver either. Things worked out perfect for Jackson last season when he had a career year in catches (82) and yards (1,332), and he tied his career high in touchdowns (nine). Jeremy Maclin (ACL) was out, and Jackson has shown he's less-than-stellar when he's not the No. 1 option, since he struggled the previous three seasons when Maclin was healthy. Pierre Garcon is the top target for the Redskins -- he led the NFL in targets in 2013 -- and Jackson might not top 65 catches or 1,000 yards. He'll definitely have his moments, and you'll want to start him the two games he faces the Eagles. But I only want Jackson as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Round 7, and I don't consider him a starting option coming into the year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 60-65 overall
I'd rather have: Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills

Watkins has the chance to be great. It's just a matter of when. But it's unlikely to happen this season. For Watkins to be a consistent Fantasy caliber receiver, he has to get significant improvement from quarterback EJ Manuel, who struggled as a rookie and dealt with knee problems. Buffalo's best receiver -- in part due to Manuel's inconsistent campaign -- was Robert Woods, who was No. 55 in Fantasy points in 2013. The Bills also have to become more balanced after being No. 2 in rush attempts as a team last year and still expecting big things from C.J. Spiller while also having Fred Jackson and now Bryce Brown on the roster. And rookie receivers have also had a hard time shining right away, as Tavon Austin and DeAndre Hopkins showed last year despite marginal hype. You can gamble on Watkins as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but I'd rather draft him as a No. 4 option if possible. The later you can get him the better off you'll be based on the minimal risk.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 90-95 overall
I'd rather have: Terrance Williams, Jeremy Maclin, Kendall Wright

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

Davis was awesome last season with 52 catches for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns. He finished as the No. 2 tight end in standard leagues, and now he wants to be paid like one of the best tight ends in the game. But for Fantasy, he has to prove that he's more than just a touchdown-reliant producer. You can't ignore his ability to find the end zone, but in the three years prior to 2013 he averaged six touchdowns a year. If that happens again with his similar production from last season, he would finish as the No. 7 tight end in standard leagues, which is why he's ranked No. 6 behind the expected Top 3 of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas, as well as Dennis Pitta and Jason Witten. I like Davis, and I still expect a Top 10 finish, depending on his contract status. But I wouldn't draft him in Round 4 or 5 and I'd rather wait on Pitta, who is a tremendous breakout candidate.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 45-50 overall
I'd rather have: Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten

Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns

I liked Cameron last season coming into the year, and he played well with 80 catches for 917 yards and seven touchdowns to finish tied for No. 6 in Fantasy points in a standard league. The overall numbers look good, but Cameron wasn't very consistent with just seven or more Fantasy points seven times. He had just three games with more than six Fantasy points in his final 11 outings. Granted, poor quarterback play was a factor, and we hope a full year of Brian Hoyer and/or Johnny Manziel helps Cameron shine. The thought is without Josh Gordon (suspension), Cameron will thrive with additional targets. But he was already third in targets for tight ends last year with 117, and opposing defenses will key in on stopping him. My biggest fear with Cameron is the loss of Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner -- who have done wonders with tight ends in their respective careers (keep an eye on Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota) -- will hurt Cameron in a negative way. I still consider Cameron a Top 10 Fantasy tight end, but I'm not touching him before Round 7. I'd rather have Pitta, Witten, Jordan Reed or Rudolph, so someone else can take Cameron in Round 5.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 65-70 overall
I'd rather have: Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph

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Player News
Vikings' Adrian Peterson to begin probation on Wednesday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will begin his probation on Wednesday, according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Peterson will begin community service, and will undergo counseling to determine whether he has a drug problem. Peterson will report to a probation officer once a month in order to take a drug test. The strict drug testing stems from an Oct. 8 pre-trail urinalysis. Peterson admitted to "smoking a little weed," though the results from the test were never disclosed. 

Probation officials will also determine whether Peterson needs to attend parenting classes. 

Per his plea agreement, Peterson was fined $4,000 and ordered to perform 80 hours of community service. He's required to perform at least 16 hours per month, which would allow him to complete to program prior to training camp.

Peterson is under contract with the Vikings for next season, and is set to earn $12.75 million. The team is not allowed to communicate with Peterson during his suspension. 


Austin Collie signs with CFL's BC Lions
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Free-agent receiver Austin Collie has signed with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League, the team announced Thursday.

"I’m excited to be joining the Lions and very much look forward to playing in the CFL," said Collie. "The wide-open play of the Canadian game and the passion of fans across the league is going to be a lot of fun to experience."

Collie played four seasons with the Colts and one with the Patriots. In his last NFL action, he caught four passes for 57 yards in the 2014 AFC Championship Game.


Eagles RB LeSean McCoy: 'I don't want to take less money'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Eagles running back LeSean McCoy reiterated Thursday that while he'd be willing to restructure his contract if asked, he would not accept a pay cut, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

"I know how hard it is to keep a team together and I want to be part of this team. But I don't want to take less money," McCoy said. "I want to figure a way to make it happen [where] we're all together."

McCoy, who is due to count $11.95 million against the cap in 2015, turned in his fourth 1,000-yard season in the last five years in 2014, finishing with 1,319 rushing yards on 312 carries and 155 receiving yards on a career-low 28 receptions. All five of his touchdowns came on the ground.


Bills' Rex Ryan won't commit to EJ Manuel as starting QB
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) When asked about who his starting quarterback would be in 2015, Bills coach Rex Ryan said the team would look at every available option, reports The Buffalo News.

"We're going to exhaust every resource we can," Ryan said. "We'll look at free agents. We'll look at the draft. We'll look at anything."

The Bills have former first-round pick EJ Manuel on their roster, but Ryan said he would not commit to Manuel as his starting quarterback at this time.

"To say that he's definitely going to be the guy, it's way too early to say that," Ryan said.


Bills RB Fred Jackson excited to play for new coach Rex Ryan
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Bills veteran running back Fred Jackson said he hasn't had the opportunity to meet with new coach Rex Ryan, but that didn't stop him from expressing his excitement about the new coaching regime in Buffalo.

"I can't wait to play for him. I've heard nothing but good things," Jackson said Wednesday of Ryan during an interview on ESPN New York 98.7 FM. "I'm looking forward to that [first] conversation when I sit down and talk to him."

The Bills finished 9-7 in 2014, which was their best record since 2004. While Jackson believes Ryan is going to "be that catalyst that comes in and pushes us over that hump," he didn't have many bad things to say about coach Doug Marrone, who opted out of his contract New Year's Eve.

"I thought he was a tremendous coach," Jackson said. "He showed up, he worked hard, he pushed players to give their best effort. He got us to a 9-7 record -- we hadn't won nine games in 10 years. There's definitely some things about him that made him a great coach. It's just the way he exited. I don't think anybody expected that. 

"Players, the way we found out is we got a generic text from him, saying that he was moving on and he had chosen to opt out of his contract." 


Justin Tuck: Raider Nation would appluad signing Ndamukong Suh
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) If defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh doesn't sign a long-term deal with the Lions, then he will become a free agent March 10 and there will be plenty of teams interested in the Pro Bowl lineman. 

Raiders defensive end Justin Tuck indicated if Suh wanted to sign with Oakland, then he would be welcomed in Raider Nation.

"(He's) Raider-ish," Tuck said, per the Detroit Free Press. "And that's one of the reasons why I know Raider Nation would applaud that move, beyond the fact that he's an awesome football player. He kind of fits the mold of ... the toughness and the ferocious player that built the Oakland Raiders."

It is speculated Suh will receive a contract worth at least $100 million. Tuck believes the three-time All-Pro deserves such a lucrative deal.

"The thing about him, you know what you're getting every day. Some of the tactics, you could probably do without, but he's a hell of a football player," Tuck said. "I would love to have the opportunity to line up beside of him and let him take all the double teams that I normally take."


Nick Foles: 'I plan on being in Philly' in 2015
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) There has been a lot of talk about quarterback Nick Foles' future with the Eagles, especially since Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly's former pupil at Oregon -- Marcus Mariota -- will be part of this year's draft class.

On Thursday, Foles addressed the rumors and stated he is expecting to be back on the Eagles' roster in 2015.

"Yeah you hear about it," Foles said in between doing paid appearances at Super Bowl XLIX, per NJ.com. "You are going to hear about it every single year. That's just part of it. The main word is 'rumor.' You can't put too much into it....I plan on being in Philly.

"I only listen to (head coach) Chip Kelly. That's what is most important. He is the one that will make the decision. Right now all I am going to do is work because I plan on being back in Philadelphia and playing with my team. That's all I ever thought. So that is what I plan on doing and I'm not looking at it any other way."

Foles added he hasn't talked with Kelly since the end of the season.

"We haven't talked a lot. He has a lot going on," Foles said. "This time of year you really just get away from everything. He is busy looking at the draft, doing all that. I saw he is more of the decision maker. Haven't really talked to him too much, but I'm sure I'll hear from him soon."


Dwyer pleads guilty in domestic violence case, gets probation
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) Cardinals running back Jonathan Dwyer pleaded guilty Thursday in Maricopa County (Ariz.) Superior Court to a single count of disorderly conduct pertaining to his domestic violence case, according to The Arizona Republic.

Dwyer was sentenced to 18 months of probation and community service following the plea, according to a court spokesman.

The 25-year-old Dwyer was arrested Sept. 17 for a July 21 incident in which he allegedly head-butted his wife in the face and broke her nose after she refused his sexual advances and bit his lip, according to reports taken at the time.

Dwyer's wife told police she reported the incident in September because she feared for their child's safety after seeing reports of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's arrest on child-abuse charges.

The Cardinals placed Dwyer on the reserve/non-football injury list after his September arrest. He did not play again during the 2014 season.


Tom Brady on Peyton Manning: 'I certainly hope he comes back'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) While the football world anxiously awaits official word from Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning about his playing status for the 2015 season, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady -- and longtime Manning rival -- said Thursday he hopes the five-time NFL MVP will continue his career.

"What a great player he's been for this league," Brady said Thursday, per NFL.com. "He's a great competitor, and I've been fortunate to play against him a bunch of times. I certainly hope he comes back, 'cause the league will miss him if he doesn't. But those decisions are up to him. I'm sure it's up to whether he's mentally and physically -- that's what he wants to do. But I certainly hope he's back."

Archie Manning, Peyton's father, told NFL Network on Thursday that his son hasn't made a decision yet.

"Well, Peyton evaluates things; he's pretty good at that," he said. "I can't tell him what to do, and he hasn't told me what he's going to do. But I do know that he's really giving a lot of things a lot of thought. He's thinking about where he is physically, he wants to see how he can do this some more, trying to get over an injury."

Archie added starting over with new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak will not be an issue for Peyton, if he decides to return next season.

"Yeah, but he loves Gary. He likes Gary," Archie Manning said. "He liked John Fox. He liked Adam Gase. All those things, I think, are considered with. But my deal is he's always made good decisions; he's pretty thorough. He's going to evaluate a lot of things, and I think he'll make a good decision."


RG3: 'I could've sat out the rest of last year' after hurting ankle
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/29/2015) During a radio interview Wednesday night, Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III indicated the dislocated ankle he suffered in Week 2 against the Jaguars hindered him the rest of the season. He missed six games due to the injury.

“I had never suffered an ankle injury of that severity before, so I didn’t really know what to expect,” Griffin said, per The Washington Times. “It just became more and more tough the more games that we lost, because you know how hard your guys work, and you want to get out there and help them win games.

“I could’ve sat out the rest of last year, with how bad the ankle was, but I felt like I could play, and I wanted to get out there and play with my guys and help them win games. And that didn’t happen when I got back out there. Then coach made a decision [to bench me]. That was an unfortunate decision, and something we all had to go with because that was coach’s choice.”

Griffin will be entering the final guaranteed year of his contract in 2015. The Redskins have until May 3 to decide if they want to exercise the fifth-year option on his contract for 2016. 

Griffin added his focus this offseason will simply be on getting healthy.

“Last year, I wasn’t healthy, and it sucked,” Griffin told ESPN 980. “There’s no other way to say it other than that. When you dislocate your ankle in the second week of the season, when you and your team had big things in mind. So I guess it’s just getting healthy, getting a mental break, getting a chance to spend time with family, and then formulate my plan going forward from this year so we can go out there and win games.”


 
 
 
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