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2014 Draft Prep: Busts, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Breakouts, 2.0 | Sleepers, 2.0

When I look at a player who could be a bust, it's not always about their talent -- or lack thereof. A lot of it relates to their potential Average Draft Position.

For example, the first version of this busts column was published in April, prior to the NFL Draft, so gauging where a player would be taken by Fantasy owners was difficult. An owner might have targeted -- and still might -- Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew as starting options, which is a mistake.

Now, we have a better understanding of ADP, so we can see the players who could struggle based on where they are being drafted. But first, let's take a look back at the original list.

To recap, here are the Busts 1.0 ...

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Nick Foles, QB, Eagles
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
Chris Johnson, RB, Jets
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Dolphins
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Raiders
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
Riley Cooper, WR, Eagles
Eric Decker, WR, Jets
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

Based on the response, we felt it was worth discussing a few of these players again with Newton, Foles, Lynch and Jackson. Many Fantasy owners are counting on these guys as starting options, but I have no interest in them based on where I'll have to take them.

It's the crux of how I feel about all of the players listed here. I would gladly draft Lynch in Round 3 or Foles in Round 11, but they won't be there.

Nick Foles, QB, Eagles

The Eagles did a nice job in adding talent around Foles this offseason, even with getting rid of Jackson. They brought back Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, traded for Darren Sproles and drafted Jordan Matthews. Zach Ertz will see a bigger role, and LeSean McCoy is still a stud catching passes out of the backfield. But losing Jackson will hurt since Foles targeted him more than any other receiver (70 times), and he completed 71.4 percent of those passes to Jackson. I'm also expecting Foles to regress statistically since he had just two interceptions on the season, and 10 of his 27 touchdowns (37 percent of his production) and 834 of his 2,891 passing yards (29 percent) came against two of the three worst pass defenses in 2013 with Oakland and Minnesota. He does benefit with two games against Dallas' defense this year, but that first meeting with the Cowboys isn't until Week 13. Before then he gets four games against elite defenses in San Francisco, St. Louis, Arizona and Carolina and then Seattle in Week 14. It won't be easy for Foles, and opposing defenses should have a better understanding of Chip Kelly's offense. I'll take Foles as a low-end starter, but I'm not drafting him prior to Round 8.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 60-65 overall
I'd rather have: Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

It's hard to argue against Newton because he's been so good since starting for the Panthers as a rookie in 2011. He's never been outside the Top 7 for Fantasy quarterbacks, but that will change this year. His passing yards have declined each of the past three years. His rushing touchdowns as well. And now he has a revamped receiving corps -- Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are gone with Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant in their place -- and changes on the offensive line. Newton should be fine coming off ankle surgery in March, but he's lost valuable time with his new receivers to develop a rapport. Newton also struggled to close last season with just one 20-point Fantasy outing in his final four games, but Carolina still went 3-1 over that stretch, which shows they can win with their running game and defense. Based on the changes at receiver, coach Ron Rivera has said the Panthers will remain run-heavy this year, which makes sense (they were No. 11 in rushing attempts in 2013). Look for Newton to be more of a caretaker than playmaker, and he's outside my Top 12 this season. I won't draft him before Round 10.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 85-90 overall
I'd rather have: Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

I've been making the case against Lynch since prior to Super Bowl when it was apparent his touches would go over the 400 mark, which happened in the win against the Broncos. He's now at serious risk for a breakdown this season. Over the past 10 years there have been 27 times where a running back has had 400 or more touches. Only five times -- Edgerrin James (2004), LaDainian Tomlinson (2005), James again (2005), Adrian Peterson (2009) and Ray Rice (2011) -- has a running back produced an increase in Fantasy points the following season. Most succumb to injury or just general wear and tear, and Lynch is a physical runner to begin with. He's also upset about his contract, and the Seahawks have a potential stud waiting in the wings with Christine Michael, who is a top sleeper. I would draft Lynch in Round 2, but he likely won't fall that far since most Fantasy owners still view him as a Top 5 overall pick. That's too risky for me, and I can see Lynch having similar troubles to Arian Foster and Rice, who were coming off 400-touch seasons in 2013 and struggled. If you do draft Lynch in the first 24 picks make sure you handcuff him with Michael.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 10-15 overall
I'd rather have: Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Le'Veon Bell

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions

Bush is still going to have a good season and be a Top 20 Fantasy running back. But he's going to regress this year and shouldn't be considered a stud. He's had at least 200 carries each of the past three years, but the Lions will likely give more work to Joique Bell this season, who will also work at the goal line. Bush is still a candidate for 50-plus catches, which he did last season for the first time since 2008, and he can still attain 1,200 total yards and six touchdowns. But don't rely on him the same way you have the past three years when he was the featured option for the Dolphins (2011-12) and Lions (2012). Bell's role will expand significantly, and the Lions have talked about using Bush like he was with the Saints based on the connection with new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. I've seen Bush being drafted as early as Round 3, which is too soon, and I'd rather have Andre Ellington, Bishop Sankey, C.J. Spiller and Toby Gerhart. All four of those running backs are flawed to some degree, but their ceiling is higher this season if Bell is 100 percent, since he'll cut into Bush's role this year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 30-35 overall
I'd rather have: Bishop Sankey, C.J. Spiller, Toby Gerhart

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

The Chargers are saying all the right things about Mathews this season. New offensive coordinator Frank Reich said Mathews is "our guy," and general manager Tom Telesco called Mathews "our bell cow." That all makes sense and should be accurate, but the addition of Donald Brown will cut into Mathews' workload. And having Danny Woodhead on board is also a detriment. One statement from the team directly to me came from coach Mike McCoy at the owners meetings when he said the Chargers could use a running back by committee approach. McCoy learned under John Fox when the two were in Carolina, and he's used to having multiple backs handle the load. "You get in there, you get on a little bit of a roll and you're going to stay in there," McCoy said in March. I still like Mathews as a No. 2 running back, but he's outside my Top 20. The earliest I would draft him is Round 5.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 30-35 overall
I'd rather have: C.J. Spiller, Toby Gerhart, Shane Vereen

Ben Tate, RB, Browns

I had high hopes for Tate last season with the Texans. Foster was coming off a heavy workload in 2012, and Tate was entering a contract year. The thought was Foster, if he missed time, would give Tate an opportunity to shine. Well, Tate got that opportunity after Foster suffered a season-ending back injury, but he struggled. He had seven games in 2013 with at least 15 carries and finished with double digits in Fantasy points just twice. The Browns are going to give him plenty of chances to carry the ball, but this is a team that failed to have a running back rush for more than 75 yards in a game with only four rushing touchdowns. And Tate is expected to share touches with talented rookie Terrance West, which has prompted coach Mike Pettine to say the Browns will be running back by committee. I don't mind Tate as a flex option this year because there will be moments of solid production. But if you draft Tate as a starter he will almost certainly let you down. The better move is to pass on Tate in Round 5 and wait for West in Round 8.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 50-55 overall
I'd rather have: Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell

Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants

Jennings has a great opportunity in front of him. He's expected to start for the Giants, and he could be a three-down back based on their offense. But I'm skeptical of drafting him as a starting Fantasy option, and he should only be considered a flex. The Giants drafted Andre Williams, who could work at the goal line, and David Wilson (neck) appears on track to return. Jennings should be the best Giants running back this year, but it looks like a crowded backfield. Jennings is also 29 and stepping into a starting role for the first time in his career. He's had trouble staying healthy, and last year was the first time he had sustained success when he took over for the injured Darren McFadden in Oakland. Jennings performed well with at least nine Fantasy points in six of his final eight games, including double digits in five of those outings. But I'd be shocked if he can replicate that performance, especially in competition for touches with Wilson and Williams. If Wilson isn't able to return I'll change my opinion on Jennings, but I wouldn't draft him before Round 6 in the majority of leagues.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 50-55 overall
I'd rather have: Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

Most casual NFL fans don't like when players talk about holdouts or seem to be upset about their job status. The public perception is these players are getting paid a lot of money to play a game. But you have to feel a little sorry for Johnson. He's been the best player for the Texans for the majority of his career, and he might have been the best receiver of his era with a better quarterback situation. But he's struggled through the Matt Schaub tenure, and instead of upgrading the position this offseason the team gave him an unheralded rookie in Tom Savage and a career backup in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Johnson might not show up for training camp, and it's unlikely he gets traded. Johnson has never scored more than nine touchdowns in a season, with 11 combined the past three years, and his ability to catch 100-plus passes and 1,400-plus yards -- which he's done four of the past six years -- is in jeopardy with the new quarterback. Johnson is still worth drafting as a No. 2 receiver, but he shouldn't come off the board before Round 5 in most formats.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 40-45 overall
I'd rather have: Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon

DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

Kelly didn't make Jackson into a great receiver. He was pretty good under Andy Reid as well. So Jackson can still perform at a high level under new coach Jay Gruden, but anyone expecting Jackson to be a No. 1 receiver like he was in 2013 is mistaken. And he might not be a Top 24 Fantasy receiver either. Things worked out perfect for Jackson last season when he had a career year in catches (82) and yards (1,332), and he tied his career high in touchdowns (nine). Jeremy Maclin (ACL) was out, and Jackson has shown he's less-than-stellar when he's not the No. 1 option, since he struggled the previous three seasons when Maclin was healthy. Pierre Garcon is the top target for the Redskins -- he led the NFL in targets in 2013 -- and Jackson might not top 65 catches or 1,000 yards. He'll definitely have his moments, and you'll want to start him the two games he faces the Eagles. But I only want Jackson as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Round 7, and I don't consider him a starting option coming into the year.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 60-65 overall
I'd rather have: Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills

Watkins has the chance to be great. It's just a matter of when. But it's unlikely to happen this season. For Watkins to be a consistent Fantasy caliber receiver, he has to get significant improvement from quarterback EJ Manuel, who struggled as a rookie and dealt with knee problems. Buffalo's best receiver -- in part due to Manuel's inconsistent campaign -- was Robert Woods, who was No. 55 in Fantasy points in 2013. The Bills also have to become more balanced after being No. 2 in rush attempts as a team last year and still expecting big things from C.J. Spiller while also having Fred Jackson and now Bryce Brown on the roster. And rookie receivers have also had a hard time shining right away, as Tavon Austin and DeAndre Hopkins showed last year despite marginal hype. You can gamble on Watkins as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but I'd rather draft him as a No. 4 option if possible. The later you can get him the better off you'll be based on the minimal risk.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 90-95 overall
I'd rather have: Terrance Williams, Jeremy Maclin, Kendall Wright

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers

Davis was awesome last season with 52 catches for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns. He finished as the No. 2 tight end in standard leagues, and now he wants to be paid like one of the best tight ends in the game. But for Fantasy, he has to prove that he's more than just a touchdown-reliant producer. You can't ignore his ability to find the end zone, but in the three years prior to 2013 he averaged six touchdowns a year. If that happens again with his similar production from last season, he would finish as the No. 7 tight end in standard leagues, which is why he's ranked No. 6 behind the expected Top 3 of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas, as well as Dennis Pitta and Jason Witten. I like Davis, and I still expect a Top 10 finish, depending on his contract status. But I wouldn't draft him in Round 4 or 5 and I'd rather wait on Pitta, who is a tremendous breakout candidate.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 45-50 overall
I'd rather have: Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten

Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns

I liked Cameron last season coming into the year, and he played well with 80 catches for 917 yards and seven touchdowns to finish tied for No. 6 in Fantasy points in a standard league. The overall numbers look good, but Cameron wasn't very consistent with just seven or more Fantasy points seven times. He had just three games with more than six Fantasy points in his final 11 outings. Granted, poor quarterback play was a factor, and we hope a full year of Brian Hoyer and/or Johnny Manziel helps Cameron shine. The thought is without Josh Gordon (suspension), Cameron will thrive with additional targets. But he was already third in targets for tight ends last year with 117, and opposing defenses will key in on stopping him. My biggest fear with Cameron is the loss of Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner -- who have done wonders with tight ends in their respective careers (keep an eye on Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota) -- will hurt Cameron in a negative way. I still consider Cameron a Top 10 Fantasy tight end, but I'm not touching him before Round 7. I'd rather have Pitta, Witten, Jordan Reed or Rudolph, so someone else can take Cameron in Round 5.
Will likely be drafted ... Pick No. 65-70 overall
I'd rather have: Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph

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Player News
Ravens TE Dennis Pitta hopeful for 2015 return
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(10:08 pm ET) Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta hopes to take the field in time for the 2015 season, but admits it's too early to determine if that goal can become a reality.

Pitta has undergone surgeries to repair a fractured and dislocated hip in each of the last two years.

"We still have some time to be able to assess where I'm at," Pitta told the Baltimore Sun. "I sure hope that I'll be on the field next year. That's my hope; that's my goal. We'll just see if I can get there."

Pitta has played in just seven games in the last two seasons combined.


Mark Sanchez: Eagles said Tim Tebow was just a camp arm
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(11:59 am ET) Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez said he wasn't concerned that the team signed Tim Tebow, because the Eagles told him Tebow was just there to throw in camp.

"We needed another guy to throw while Sam's (Bradford) still recovering. So that's the reason (for the signing), at least as explained to me," Sanchez said, per CSN Philadelphia

The Eagles signed Tebow on Monday. He hasn't played in the NFL since getting cut by the Patriots at the end of training camp prior to the 2013 season. He spent last year as a television analyst for the SEC Network. 

Tebow and Sanchez were teammates on the Jets in 2012. Tebow's presence as a back-up created a quarterback controversy among fans and media that last ed throughout the season. 


Vikings CB Terence Newman has familiarity with Mike Zimmer
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Vikings cornerback Terence Newman won't have a steep learning curve now that he's with his new team. 

Newman played under Vikings coach Mike Zimmer when he was the defensive coordinator with the Cowboys. Drafted in 2003, Newman learned Zimmer's defense from his rookie season through 2006, before Zimmer left to take the same position with the Falcons. 

“I just know exactly what to expect from him as a coach, as well as everybody else in this locker room,” Newman told the Vikings' website. “You play your best football under him.”

In his career, Newman has recorded 741 tackles and 37 interceptions. Entering his 13th NFL year, Newman has already impressed his teammates with voluntary workouts underway. 

“I met with him and he seemed like a great guy,” cornerback Xavier Rhodes said. “Like he’s going to come in and teach us what we need to know about the technique of the game and about the defense because he’s been in it before, so he’s going to help us out a lot. He’s a big asset to this team and the defense.”


Chiefs pick up option on NT Dontari Poe
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) The Chiefs have exercised their fifth-year option on two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Dontari Poe, per NFL.com. He is set in Kansas City through 2016, when he will earn $6.146 million.

The 350-pound Poe has earned the money. He racked up six sacks and contributed to 46 tackles in 2014.


Lions GM Mayhew OK with James Ihedigbo skipping workouts
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Safety James Ihedigbo was the lone absence from voluntary workouts this week for the Lions. But general manager Martin Mayhew understands. After all, Ihedigbo's agent has stated that he would not work without a new contract.

"I look forward to talking with James," Mayhew told ESPN. "I understand what he's going through. I've been through that myself as a player, when I felt that a time in my career that I was underpaid and I had to deal with that.

"So I have empathy for him. I understand what he's going through and I look forward to sitting down and talking with him. I have great respect for him as a player, as a man. I've gotten to know him a little bit away from football and I understand how he feels."

Mayhew declined to discuss whether the Liins will rework Ihedigbo's contract.

The 31-year-old Ihedigbo contributed 71 tackles and two sacks with a career-high four interceptions in 2014 despite missing three games at the start of the year with a nerve injury. He earned Pro Bowl alternate status.


Eagles withdraw qualifying offer to RB Chris Polk
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Running back Chris Polk is now a free agent. 

According to the NFL transaction wire, the Eagles rescinded their $1.6 million tender they offered this past March. The Eagles placed the tender on Polk, previously a restricted free agent, before signing both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews in free agency. 

With Darren Sproles on the roster, it didn't make much sense for Polk to stay with the Eagles. 

In 2014, Polk ran for 172 yards and four touchdowns. 


RB Bobby Rainey signs qualifying offer with Buccaneers
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) The Buccaneers have announced that running back Bobby Rainey has signed a one-year qualifying offer the team extended to him before the free agency period. He was a restricted free agent and was given an opportunity to negotiate with other teams.

Rainey will compete for playing time with Tampa Bay. He rushed for 406 yards in 2014, but faded at the end of the season with just two carries in the last six games combined.


Jaguars planning to play 2015 season without Justin Blackmon
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) As far as the Jaguars are concerned, Justin Blackmon will not be lining up at receiver for them this season. 

At least that's the approach Jacksonville is taking. Blackmon has been indefinitely suspended since Nov. 1 2013 for three violations of the substance-abuse policy under the old CBA.

"Our process hasn't changed," Caldwell said, via ESPN.com. "[We] plan to go without him, but if he emerges, he emerges, and he's going to go in with those top guys and compete with those other guys. Hopefully we're able to get some news, but if not we weren't planning on [having Blackmon]. We're just going to go [without him]."

Before he can re-join the Jaguars, he'll need to file an application for reinstatement, with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell making a decision within a 60-day window. The application letter would include details of the treatment he's received. 

Since being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Blackmon has only played in 20 games. He has 1,280 yards and six touchdowns in his career. 


Cowboys' Greg Hardy called 'woman beater' by teammate
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy got into an altercation with teammate Davon Coleman during a voluntary offseason workout, according to a report from Yahoo! Sports

Hardy reportedly questioned Coleman's work ethic during a conditioning drill, which led Coleman to call Hardy a "woman beater."

Hardy was accused of domestic abuse and was found guilty by a North Carolina judge. On the subsequent appeal, prosecutors dropped charges against Hardy and the case was never presented in front of a jury. 

Hardy has been suspended by the NFL for 10 games due to what transpired in that case. According to FOX Sports, the confrontation between Hardy and Coleman remained verbal


Lions and Rob Sims' representation haven't spoken in 3 weeks
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2015) The Lions need a left guard and Rob Sims would be a solid option if the two sides can strike a deal for the veteran to return. 

However, talks have stalled between the Lions' front office and Sims' representation. Speaking to reporters on Friday, Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said it's been nearly a month since he's spoken to Sims' camp. 

"We've had some discussion with Rob," Mayhew said, via MLive.com. "I spoke to his agent probably about three weeks ago and we had an offer out to him. That's kind of where we are right now. We'll have to kind of wait and see what happens."

The Lions could still opt to draft a lineman early to fill the position, too. 

Sims, who entered the NFL in 2006, has been with the Lions for the past five seasons. 


 
 
 
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