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2014 Draft Prep: Draft him, not him

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Your doctor will tell you to switch red meat for white meat. Your spouse will beg you to swap your rowdy friends for the quieter ones. Your trainer will tell you to diet, exercise and get a good night's sleep instead of eating carbs late at night while watching football (that happens to everyone and not just me, right?).

Everyone has an easy time telling you to do this, not that. Really, it's just people giving the best advice they can. They want to help you. It's taking their advice that can be a little tricky.

Taking Fantasy advice is equally tricky, though it shouldn't impact your diet/health/marriage. There are a lot of big names in Fantasy Football that might underperform, and other lesser-known names that are comparable who should perform to better expectations. So here are some alternatives to some of Fantasy's better-known players.

Draft Robert Griffin III, not Cam Newton
Newton has made our bust lists because of offseason ankle surgery he's not quite all the way back from, a suspect offensive line and an equally suspect receiving corps. RG3 looks better given a full year back from a torn ACL, a new offense that should see him pass more (and run less) along with a boosted group of wideouts to help him out. We wouldn't draft Newton until Round 9 at the earliest but he could go higher in your leagues. Griffin, on the other hand, is certain to land in Round 7 or 8 in every league.
Bonus suggestion: Draft both and use one as a trade chip if both end up doing well.

Draft Nick Foles, not Tony Romo
Foles is going to be a wild card on Draft Day: Someone might take him as soon as Round 6, or he could fall to Round 10. Romo isn't quite in the same boat as most Fantasy owners recognize his ability but still wait for him as a bargain pick. What's appealing about Foles is that his offense should remain challenging for defenses to figure out and he did exceptionally well running it last season. Both quarterbacks carry 250-yard, two-touchdown potential every week but Romo has a bit more of an injury risk to him and might not deliver as many monster games as Foles, who is worth taking a round or two ahead of Romo.
Bonus suggestion: If you're jittery about either quarterback, aim for Carson Palmer as your backup. He has lots of upside and has good matchups for both Foles' and Romo's bye weeks.

Draft Carson Palmer, not Andy Dalton
It was stunning to see Dalton finish as a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback last year but it's a longshot he'll do it again. The Bengals figure to be more of a running team this season even though Dalton has reportedly cleaned up his mechanics. In Arizona, the opposite is true: Palmer heads an offense likely to pass plenty, particularly as they added two deep threat receivers to go with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, both of whom are awesome targets. Palmer's offensive line has also been addressed to the point where it might wind up being one of the better ones in the NFL -- Dalton's is a little more suspect. Palmer is among the best Fantasy backups and sleepers you can find.
Bonus suggestion: If you take an elite quarterback like Peyton, Brees or Rodgers, pass on a backup quarterback and use the roster spot to build depth/hunt for a sleeper at another position.

Draft Toby Gerhart, not Reggie Bush
The Jaguars' run game was gross last season, including how rarely their backs had goal-line chances. That's going to change in 2014 now that the team brought in Gerhart. The backfield beast, who is 27, has 276 regular-season carries and is going to be the main man in Jacksonville with nobody stealing significant reps. Bush, 29, has 450 carries in just the last two seasons and is going to end up splitting with at least one guy in Detroit. Both will be third-round picks, though if one had a shot at falling into Round 4 it would be Gerhart since some owners are afraid of him playing like your typical heavy-workload back. As for the Jags' O-line, improvements were made that make it better than the paltry fivesome from last year. Gerhart's opportunities to get consistent touches and bang away at the goal line make him a more lucrative choice than Bush.
Bonus suggestion: Assuming Joique Bell plays well this preseason, he's the better Lions running back bargain with a pick in Round 5 or so. You could be in for a touchdown windfall with Gerhart and Bell as your second and third backs.

Draft Shane Vereen, not Stevan Ridley
Vereen and Ridley are going to be the Patriots' primary backs to begin the year: Vereen to work in passing down situations and the hurry-up offense, Ridley in running down situations (including the goal line) and the clock-killing offense. Of course, Ridley won't get many chances if he can't hang on to the football. Vereen doesn't have the same kind of fumbling problem -- his issue is that he doesn't get enough handoffs. But he makes up for it by catching passes, something he did 5.8 times per game during the regular season. That average would make for 94 grabs over 16 games and give Vereen a shot at 1,000 total yards with some touchdowns to boot. The odds of him getting there seem better than Ridley getting over 1,000 yards with some touchdowns since one more fumble could mean a permanent benching for Ridley. Vereen's the safer Patriots back to draft.
Bonus suggestion: Take a look at Patriots rookie running back James White with a late-round pick. He could end up serving as the backup to both Vereen and Ridley, which means if Ridley fumbles White would get a shot to lead the ground game.

Draft Devonta Freeman, not Steven Jackson
One of these guys has more than 2,700 career carries, one of these guys has none. One of these guys has been in the NFL for a decade, one of them is just now coming into the pros. One of these guys averaged 3.5 yards per carry last year, one of these guys might not have averaged below 4.0 yards per carry through his amateur and collegiate career. Know which way I'm going with this? Jackson is the old man in the Falcons' running back room and is a high-risk break-down candidate given his history. Freeman has to be counted on to spell S-Jax while he's healthy and full-on replace him when he's out. Jacquizz Rodgers? He had his chances over the last two years and seems locked into a third-down role. Very often we look at a player as "future stud" only to see the future accelerate to the present day. It's possible we see that with Freeman, who can be had with a Round 9 pick, several rounds after Jackson.
Bonus suggestion: You could draft both, but we wouldn't recommend a big investment in Jackson. A Fantasy owner desperate for a second back or a flex could find Jackson appealing in Round 6 and Freeman a great handcuff/sleeper three rounds later.

Draft Terrance West, not Ben Tate
Every year Ben Tate gets the gold star from Fantasy analysts and every year he delivers anywhere from "meh" to "blah." So we're falling for him again just because the Browns signed him this offseason and he's going into a scheme he's familiar with? OK, if that's your thing. Here are three secrets everyone knows: The Browns are going to try to run the ball a ton this year, Tate is injury prone and West is a sky's-the-limit rookie who has adapted quickly to what the Browns are asking from him. So much so that someone familiar with the situation in Cleveland told me West is the one to watch. You could go with the Browns running back combo platter and hope Tate falls in Round 6 and come right back for West in Round 7, or you could just go for the home run and go for West in Round 7.
Bonus suggestion: A lot of people will tell you the Browns' run game will stall because their pass game will struggle without Josh Gordon. Don't buy it. The Browns' defense is much improved, the Browns offense will have some good moments passing and West will get more than a few charity carries per week. West is worth it before the middle of your draft.

Draft Michael Crabtree, not Larry Fitzgerald
This might be the closest call of any "Draft him, not him" on this page. Both guys are great and borderline No. 1 Fantasy receivers. In fact, getting either of these guys to be your WR1 after taking two running backs should be looked at as a win. Crabtree's never been better than he was in 2012 when he had 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, or roughly 164 Fantasy points (and that's with Colin Kaepernick for half of a season). It's been two years since Fitzgerald's done way better than those numbers but last year's 954 yards and 10 touchdowns was worth effectively 154 points. Pretty close. Crab's average over 19 games with Kaepernick is basically five catches for 72 yards and a touchdown every other game. Over 16 games you'd get 90 grabs, 1,150 yards and eight touchdowns. Now ask yourself, can Crabtree keep that average up with the Niners adding Stevie Johnson? And also ask, can Fitzgerald beat those numbers? In the Cardinals' pass-heavy offense, it's entirely possible he could, though last year's numbers might suggest otherwise. Here's where Crabtree wins the arm-wrestling match: He's four years younger than Fitz, has a younger and stronger-armed quarterback and is in a contract year. Those are the tiebreakers for me, and why I'll take Crab ahead of Fitz in Round 3 or maybe even early Round 4.
Bonus suggestion: Owners in 8- or 10-team leagues could go for both receivers in Rounds 3 and 4, especially if we're talking the swing picks at the end of Round 3 and the top of Round 4. Planning for it would mean going with two rushers with two early round picks. Lucky 12-team leagues could also end up with this duo after taking two running backs.

Draft Emmanuel Sanders, not Eric Decker
Decker's last two career seasons came with Peyton Manning, not Geno Smith, as his quarterback. Kinda important since now Smith is throwing to Decker ... and Manning is throwing to Sanders. Sanders isn't as big as Decker but he's definitely quicker and faster, far more capable of taking a short, precise Peyton pass to the house. And the Broncos will throw a lot -- will the Jets? In PPR formats both are good No. 2 receivers but in standard leagues Sanders offers more potential to score and rack up some crazy yardage. Those career years Decker had with Peyton are about to become Sanders' property.
Bonus suggestion: Don't bother with Decker. When's the last time the Jets had a great Fantasy receiver anyway? Think Decker's going to turn it around with Smith as his quarterback and the offense still in a run-first mentality? You have a better chance of getting a wink from Jessie James Decker.

Draft Rueben Randle, not Hakeem Nicks
Nicks is coming into a whole new world in Indianapolis, and while he'll probably exploit single coverage a bunch and become a better red-zone receiver than he was last year with the Giants, he won't be as prolific as Randle. Motivated by offseason mud-slinging by coaches past and present, Randle has come to training camp refocused and sure to serve as the Giants' top outside receiver. In the new offense they're running it means a lot of targets and plenty of chances to make a play after the catch. He did a bunch of that last season. If he can correct his errors, the third-year receiver should take another big step forward statistically. He's a Round 8 pick. Nicks is one of my sleepers, so I like him with a pick later on, but given the two I'd ride with the younger, healthier receiver.
Bonus suggestion: This is another situation where you could draft both as backups and be done at the position. For instance, if you take two stud receivers, these two would provide depth and you'd head into Week 1 with four wideouts.

Draft Zach Ertz, not Jordan Reed
Like an 80-year-old grandmother, I'm already nervous about Reed surviving the season after suffering multiple concussions (and not coming clean with them) in 2013. Reed is a phenom, but so is Ertz. And while Reed's offense might tilt a little bit toward being more pass-heavy than Ertz's, it's Ertz who stands to serve as a difference-maker. He's big, strong, fast and can do anything Chip Kelly asks of him. He finished strong last season and spent part of this offseason hanging out with Nick Foles, developing that all-important chemistry. Ertz, who can be had with a Round 9 pick after Reed in Round 8, has more potential than Reed without the injury concerns.
Bonus suggestion: Both tight ends offer a great deal of hope but both could also disappoint. It's not necessarily a wrong idea to draft a second tight end with one of these guys, especially if you're happy with your depth at running back and wide receiver. Lions rookie Eric Ebron and Chargers tight ends Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates should end up being good options as insurance policies.

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Player News
Texans' Louis Nix 'trying to move forward' in sophomore season
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) Texans nose tackle Louis Nix spoke about his lost rookie season this week in OTAs, the Houston Chronicle reports.

"A lot went on my first year here. It was a lot to deal with," said Nix, who underwent arthroscopic knee surgery during the preseason and eventually was placed on season-ending injured reserve. "It was difficult to maintain it with all the issues. But I'm happy about now, and that's what I'm worried about. I'm just trying to move forward and do the best I can."

Coach Bill O'Brien expressed frustration with Nix earlier this offseason.

"Bill is Bill. He challenges everybody," Nix said. "Sometimes you guys make it more than what it is. … He wants guys to be better. I take no offense to it. I know he just wants me to be the best player that I can be. He sees potential, and I see it in myself. I'm starting to get back in a groove of things. I'm just going to keep trying to do the best I can."

Nix is finally healthy and working his way into game shape.

"Make it through a practice, man," Nix said. "That's my goal."


Eagles' Earl Wolff, Marcus Smith limited in OTAs with injuries
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) Eagles safety Earl Wolff and linebacker Marcus Smith were limited in OTAs with injuries, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

Wolff is recovering from knee surgery. Coach Chip Kelly said the safety has been cleared to return, and the team is waiting for him to reach full participation in OTAs. Smith has been dealing with a pulled leg muscle.


Packers' Casey Hayward dealing with foot injury
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) Packers cornerback Casey Hayward is dealing with a foot injury and doesn't expect to return to action until training camp, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"I’ll probably take it easy into camp right now," Hayward said. "I have a minor foot thing right now. We’ll probably take it easy into camp."

Hayward said the foot "flared up" on him earlier in the offseason. He finished with 42 tackles and three interceptions last season.


Ravens' Terrence Brooks running, 'doing really well'
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) Ravens free safety Terrence Brooks is running after suffering ACL and MCL tears in his right knee in December, the Baltimore Sun reports.

"Terrence Brooks is doing really well," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "No predictions right now, but he looks good. He has worked hard."

Brooks is expected to open the season on the PUP list and could make his return this season.

"We're just hoping for the best, trying to get back as soon as possible," Brooks said. "We're taking precautious. We definitely don't want to rush back too fast. If you do get cleared, playing this year is definitely a goal. You don't want to rush it. For the most part, you have to be cautious and take it easy. After we get off of the PUP list, we'll see where we're at. I definitely want to get back into it, but we're taking our time. I have high hopes of being ready."


Report: OT Jake Long visits Giants Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) Free-agent offensive tackle Jake Long visited the Giants on Thursday, ESPN reports.

The Giants are having to shuffle their offensive line with Will Beatty expected to miss the first part of the season with a pec injury. Long was scheduled to make $9.25 million in 2015 but was released by the Rams in March.


Saints CB Brandon Browner impressing teammates, coach
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) New Saints cornerback Brandon Browner is having a positive impact on not just the secondary, but the entire defense. At least that's the view of defensive backfield mate Kenny Vaccaro.

"Browner's a good dude, leads by example, talks when he needs to talk," Vaccaro told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "He's real serious, kind of keeps everybody level headed and knows what we've got to work for. He's won two Super Bowls, so he knows what to do."

Sean Payton echoed those sentiments.

"He's competitive," he said. "He's driven and certainly one of the things we talked about this offseason through the draft, through the acquisition of players is the makeup and making sure that this is something we felt like was a plus and certainly with him we feel that that is a strength of his."

The Saints are Browner's fourth team in six seasons in the NFL.


Eagles LB DeMeco Ryans working way back from injury
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) There was a bit of a discrepancy Thursday in regard to the practice participation of Eagles inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans.

Chip Kelly said before the session that Ryans would be a full-go despite him being just seven months removed from rupturing his Achilles tendon. Ryans did practice, but he told the Philadelphia Inquirer that he was not a full participant.

Ryans missed half of the 2014 season with the injury, but contributed to 45 tackles in eight games before going down.


Eagles QB Mark Sanchez optimistic as offseason rolls on
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) A stronger arm, greater familiarity with the offense and more confidence has Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez feeling quite good these days.

Sanchez underwent shoulder surgery two years ago that affected him early last season. He expects to be better in 2015, especially if given an opportunity to play over newcomer Sam Bradford.

"First thing, physically, I feel so much better," he told the team website. "The farther it gets away from surgery and all the reps I've had, all the rehab on through, it can only get better and stronger. So this is definitely the best I've ever felt. And then as far as the scheme, every rep, every time we sit down and watch film, every meeting, that can only help with my growth as well."

The chance to play is one reason why Sanchez chose to return this offseason to the Eagles.

"Were there other opportunitites? Absolutely," he said. "Did they look potentially good, better, similar, maybe worse? Potentially, yeah, there was some stuff out there. But when I factored it all in, I just felt this was the best spot for me. I enjoy playing for coach Kelly, I love this system, I love the tempo, I love the pace."

Sanchez also expressed a desire to remain on the team for which he threw his highest completition percentage of his career in 2014. He hit on 64.1 percent, by far a personal best.

Chip Kelly has seen a difference in Sanchez.

"I think you can see it in how he's performing out there now," he said. "He's also not learning an offense again. ... He is really comfortable in terms of the scheme."


Ravens waive/injured Julian Wilson
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) The Ravens waived/injured cornerback Julian Wilson on Thursday, the Baltimore Sun reports. Wilson suffered a broken leg on the first day of rookie camp and will miss the season.

Saints' Anthony Spencer works ahead of Junior Galette Thursday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5/28/2015) Saints linebacker Anthony Spencer worked ahead of Junior Galette in the team's base 4-3 defense, a run-heavy look that featured just three linebackers, ESPN.com reports.

"However it came out, we’re not worried about depth chart now," defensive coordinator Rob Ryan said. "We’re putting in a defense, we’re all working hard together and getting to know each other, our teammates and what we got. But I know both those guys can play, so we’re excited about 'em."

Spencer had a career-high 11 sacks in 2012 but has managed just 24 total tackles and a half-sack in 14 games over the last two years while dealing with a major knee injury.

"I think sometimes there are tougher positions to evaluate at this time of year," coach Sean Payton said, when asked to give his early thoughts on Spencer. "But I think, No. 1, he can affect the passer. ... He’s an edge player, I think he’s very good at fitting the run, and I think he can affect the passer."


 
 
 
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