Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 1.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Average Draft Position is one of the best tools you can use to study for your Draft Day. It gives you an idea of what the Fantasy community thinks of players you plan to target.

For example, you might be thinking Andre Ellington could be a great pick in Round 5, or Cordarrelle Patterson is someone you hope to get in Round 7. Well, based on ADP on CBSSports.com heading into the first weekend of preseason action, Ellington is being drafted in Round 3 and Patterson in Round 5.

You can still look to get Ellington and Patterson if you're so inclined. But now you have to adjust your planning since they likely won't last as long as you hope. And ADP is something you can use to gauge all your potential sleepers and breakouts and where you might have to draft them.

Along with our rankings, projections, updates and mock drafts, scan the ADP a few times prior to your Draft Day. Public perception is useful information that should help in your preparation to win your league.

The first round

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
10. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. Arian Foster, RB, Texans

Barring an injury, the first four picks will likely remain the same, in some order, throughout the preseason. Charles, McCoy and Peterson will likely jockey for the No. 1 overall pick, with the knock on Charles being the changes on the offensive line, and McCoy detractors being worried about the addition of Darren Sproles. Peterson also has his flaws with injury concerns and fear of a potential breakdown based on career workload, but the Fantasy owners who believe in him tend to overlook that.

I don't mind Manning in the first round, but No. 5 overall is too soon. You're expecting him to again be 88 Fantasy points better than the No. 2 quarterback like he was last year (he outscored Brees 523-435 in standard leagues) and 170 Fantasy points better than the No. 3 quarterback (Andy Dalton scored 353 points). I'd prefer to see Manning in Round 2 personally, but if you want him in Round 1 it should be around No. 9 overall.

It will be interesting to see if Ball remains in the first round following his appendectomy. I'm fine drafting him there, but he could fall back to Round 2 behind other running backs like DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Giovani Bernard and Le'Veon Bell.

I didn't mention Ball falling behind Foster because I also expect Foster's ADP to drop. He recently said he considered retirement prior to this year, and he's missed practice time with an undisclosed injury. After having a back problem last year, he might be too risky for some Fantasy owners in the first round.

Quarterback breakdown

Colin Kaepernick too high: I'm very much a Kaepernick supporter this season. The receiving corps is solid with a healthy Michael Crabtree to go with Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, and the 49ers added Steve Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and Bruce Ellington this offseason. The team invested in Kaepernick with a hefty contract, and the defense could be worse with NaVorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey nursing injuries and Aldon Smith facing a lengthy suspension, meaning more passing for Kaepernick this year.

But he should not be the No. 5 quarterback off the board. And he should not be drafted in Round 4 of a 12-team league unless it's a two-quarterback format.

If someone wants Kaepernick that much then they can have him in that spot. I'll gladly pass on him there for a handful of quarterbacks going later in Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III or Tony Romo. Even though I have Kaepernick ranked higher than Brady and Griffin, the value for those guys is better than Kaepernick in Round 4 with the same type of upside.

Matt Ryan too low: Ryan is someone most Fantasy owners should target instead of avoid, and maybe the appearance on Hard Knocks during training camp will push up his ADP from his current spot as the No. 9 quarterback in Round 6. He should be a stud with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White and an improved offensive line.

Prior to Jones going down last year in Week 5, Ryan was on pace for more than 5,200 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He would have been a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback, and I'm expecting him to reach those heights this year as long as Jones and White are healthy.

If you're a Ryan supporter like I am, you have to hope he doesn't look too good this preseason so his ADP remains this low relative to the other quarterbacks.

Cam Newton falling: Fantasy owners should get used to seeing Newton as the No. 12 quarterback being drafted in Round 8. And depending on your feelings on Newton this season that could either be normal or a great thing.

If you believe Newton will remain a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback like he was last year then you'll be happy he falls this far. Or if you're worried about his revamped receiving corps and offensive line and his expected reduced rushing totals then you'll pass on him altogether.

I have Newton ranked No. 13, but I don't mind drafting him and pairing him with someone like Jay Cutler or Nick Foles. I'd rather start Cutler or Foles, but if they falter then Newton could step into my lineup and hopefully shine.

Running back breakdown

Andre Ellington going too high? Ellington is someone I'm excited about this season, but his price tag might be too high in Round 3 at No. 31 overall. He's going ahead of guys like Alshon Jeffery, Julius Thomas and Randall Cobb, and that could be a mistake.

Now, I understand if you want to draft Ellington, you take him when he's available. But guys like Jeffery, Thomas and Cobb are safer picks in that range with similar upside. If you can draft Ellington in late Round 3 or early Round 4 then that's probably a better spot for him.

Rookie report: This rookie class isn't getting a lot of hype, but there are plenty of quality targets for Fantasy owners in Bishop Sankey, Terrance West, Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Andre Williams, James White and Charles Sims.

Their ADP is as follows: Sankey (No. 37), West (No. 88), Freeman (No. 105), Hyde (No. 125), Hill (No. 127), Williams (No. 132), Mason (No. 136), White (No. 137) and Sims (No. 144).

Sankey should be going in Round 4, I'm OK with West and Freeman in their spots, and I love the value for Hyde, Hill, White and Sims, although their ADP could rise. Williams' ADP will definitely rise after he had a nice preseason debut against the Bills in the Hall of Fame game, and Mason might fall since he's not shining in training camp.

Three failures from last year: Three running back busts from last year in C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice and Trent Richardson, who were first-round picks in the majority of leagues, have some interesting ADP this season. None are being drafted before Round 3.

Spiller is the highest at No. 36, and he could be worth the price tag based on his upside. Rice is next at No. 51, but I expect him to fall with his two-game suspension and expected shared role with Bernard Pierce. And Richardson is at No. 56 overall, but he should rise barring a disappointing preseason. Ideally, you'd get Spiller in Round 4, Richardson in Round 5 and Rice in Round 6 – not on the same team – but that's better value for these running backs considering what happened to them last season and what their circumstances are this year.

Late-round fliers: Some great bargain buys right now in Round 10 or later are Hyde, Hill, Williams, Chris Ivory (No. 133), Stepfan Taylor (No. 137), Mark Ingram (No. 146) and Dexter McCluster (No. 148).

Ivory could easily make the Jets a tandem backfield with Chris Johnson if he can stay healthy. Taylor could help replace Rashard Mendenhall's eight touchdowns for the Cardinals as the No. 2 running back behind Ellington. Ingram could end up being better than Khiry Robinson, who is being drafted in Round 9. And McCluster could play the role of Danny Woodhead in Ken Whisenhunt's offense in Tennessee. Whisenhunt was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers last year.

Wide receiver breakdown

Target elite receivers: Last year, there were five receivers drafted in the first two rounds in the majority of leagues with Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas. Four of the five finished as Top 6 receivers with Jones missing out because of his foot injury.

This year, there are six receivers being drafted in the first two rounds (Brandon Marshall joins the previous group), with Jordy Nelson just outside the Top 24 picks at No. 25. Your Fantasy team would be in great shape if you can lock up one of those studs, and you could even try for two of them to guarantee an amazing roster.

Changing teams, changing values: Some high-profile receivers changed teams this offseason with DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Eric Decker and Hakeem Nicks the biggest names. All are being drafted in Round 6 or later.

I like the value for Sanders (No. 68) and Tate (No. 77) the best since they get an upgrade in offense. Sanders goes from Pittsburgh to Denver, and Tate moves from Seattle to Detroit.

I don't want Jackson in Round 6 at No. 62 overall compared to Sanders or Tate with his move from Philadelphia to Washington. Decker is probably fair value at No. 97 overall going from the Broncos to the Jets, but Fantasy owners recognize the downgrade coming in his production. And Nicks is only worth a late-round flier at No. 122 overall with his move from the Giants to the Colts since he's the No. 3 receiver behind T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne.

Rookie report: This rookie class has plenty of talent with Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham since they were all first-round picks in the NFL Draft. But where do they stack up for Fantasy owners?

Watkins (No. 87) is being drafted in Round 7, Cooks (No. 99) and Evans (No. 108) in Round 9, Benjamin (No. 132) in Round 12 and Beckham (No. 145) in Round 13. My favorite receiver based on his opportunity and value is Cooks.

I'd be OK with Evans in Round 9 and Benjamin in Round 12. Watkins is being drafted a round too soon for my liking since I'm expecting his offense and quarterback to bring down his production. And Beckham is having trouble staying healthy.

The only other rookie receiver I'd consider drafting this year is Jordan Matthews, and his ADP is No. 143 in Round 12. He's well worth it in that spot.

Late-round picks to target: There are so many receivers being drafted in Round 10 or later that I'm excited about, including Benjamin, Marvin Jones (No. 132), Kenny Stills (No. 135), Matthews, Justin Hunter (No. 143), Jarrett Boykin (No. 144), Aaron Dobson (No. 147), Kenny Britt (No. 151), Rod Streater (No. 153) and Andre Holmes (no ADP data yet).

I wouldn't be surprised if all these guys exceed their ADP if they stay healthy.

Tight end breakdown

Gronkowski the steal of the draft? If Rob Gronkowski (knee) is 100 percent healthy and ready for Week 1, he could be the steal of the draft at No. 30 overall in Round 3. That would be more than 20 spots lower than Graham, and the two are basically equal when they play 16 games.

The difference between them is health since Gronkowski has suffered through forearm, back and knee injuries the past two years. But if you knew Gronkowski would play 16 games, and he appears on track for that this season, he will be better value than Graham based on their ADP.

Three worth discussing: Three tight ends stand out to me based on ADP with Vernon Davis (No. 49 overall), Jordan Cameron (No. 68 overall) and Dennis Pitta (No. 77 overall). I'd rather have Pitta over the other two.

He's healthy this season after last year's hip injury, and he's Joe Flacco's No. 1 target in arguably the best tight end offense in the NFL. Gary Kubiak, the Ravens' offensive coordinator, had more targets for tight ends over the past six years as the head coach for the Texans than any other team.

Now, Davis and Cameron are still Top 10 options, but Davis will regress this year and Cameron is being overhyped. Davis was the No. 2 tight end last year behind Graham with 13 touchdowns, but he averaged just six touchdowns the previous three years. If his touchdowns drop, which I expect, he'll suffer.

And Cameron, who is battling a shoulder injury, could struggle with the additional coverage he'll receive with Josh Gordon facing a season-long suspension. If Gordon's suspension is reduced then I'll change my opinion on Cameron and move him up in my rankings.

Late-round value: If you're looking for good value at tight end then put these names on your list since their ADP is in Round 8 or later: Kyle Rudolph (No. 98), Zach Ertz (No. 107), Eric Ebron (No. 111), Ladarius Green (No. 131) and Heath Miller (No. 135).

Rudolph benefits with the addition of offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who helped Cameron have a breakout season last year and has a great history with tight ends. Ertz could be a star this year as he helps the Eagles replace Jackson.

Ebron could be a red-zone threat for the Lions even as a rookie. Green is everyone's favorite breakout candidate even with Antonio Gates still on the roster. And Miller should rebound this year as the No. 2 target for Ben Roethlisberger behind Antonio Brown.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Vikings' Greg Jennings: We all want Adrian Peterson back
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(4:26 pm ET) Vikings veteran wideout Greg Jennings said during a SiriusXM NFL Radio interview on Friday that embattled running back Adrian Peterson is wanted back by everyone in the organization, per ESPN.

"I don't know if he'll be back. I can't answer that question," Jennings said. "But what I do know is that if he does come back, he'd be accepted with open arms. As an organization from the Wilfs on down, we all want him back. So, I mean, it's a touchy subject and he's been the franchise player -- face of that team -- for eight years. So it will be a loss, a huge loss, if we can't get him back, and that's the nature of this business."

In November, Peterson was suspended by the league without pay for the rest of the season, making him ineligible for reinstatement until at least April 15. The move came after Peterson pleaded no contest to recklessly injuring his 4-year-old son last May. He is under contract with the Vikings for next season, and is set to earn $12.75 million.

It's unclear at this point if Jennings has talked to Zygi and Mark Wilf about the Peterson situation. What is clear is that the team is not allowed to communicate with Peterson during his suspension.


Eagles' Maclin believes contract will take care of itself
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3:08 pm ET) Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin believes he will be back in Philadelphia in next season. His representatives and the Eagles are in the process of negotiating a new contract for the 27-year-old, who will become a free agent in March unless he is re-signed.

"I'm excited about what the future holds," Maclin said on Friday. "Once again, both sides have made it known what we want to do. I think it will take care of itself."

He could be franchise tagged if a deal is not signed. The tag number for wide receivers is yet to be determined.

Maclin had 85 catches in 2014 for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns in Philadelphia.


Bears sign LB DeDe Lattimore to two-year contract extension
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(3:03 pm ET) The Bears have signed linebacker DeDe Lattimore to a two-year contract extension. He appeared in 10 games as a rookie in 2014, recording five special teams tackles.

Jaguars' Khan 'very optimistic' about WR Blackmon being reinstated
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:46 pm ET) Jaguars owner Shahid Khan said Friday he is "very optimistic" about wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who missed the 2014 season after being suspended indefinitely for a third violation of the league's substance abuse policy, being reinstated to the NFL.

"I think he's paid his dues and I think he's got his life together," Khan said, per The Florida Times-Union.


NFLPA president Eric Winston: New conduct policy 'violates CBA'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:43 pm ET) After the union field a grievance last week against the NFL over changes to the NFL personal conduct policy, Players Association president Eric Winston said Thursday the new policy "violates the CBA in several ways and we're going to be grieving this as far as we can."

NFL owners unanimously approved the changes in December.

"We have an agreement with the league and they have an agreement with us," Winston said, per the Associated Press. "We're going to hold them to that agreement. Many aspects of this policy fall outside of the CBA and we're going to continue fighting it going forward."

Following former Ravens running back Ray Rice's domestic violence case and Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's child abuse case, a more extensive list of prohibited conduct was included in the policy, as well as criteria for paid leave for anyone charged with a violent crime. A suspension of six games without pay for violations involving assault, sexual assault, battery, domestic violence, child abuse and other forms of family violence will be in effect.

"The league's revised conduct policy was the product of a tremendous amount of analysis and work and is based on input from a broad and diverse group of experts within and outside of football, including current players, former players, and the NFL Players Association," the league said in a statement last week.

"We and the public firmly believe that all NFL personnel should be held accountable to a stronger, more effective conduct policy. Clearly, the union does not share that belief."


Eric Decker 'pushing' for Demaryius Thomas to sign with Jets
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:38 pm ET) Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is set to become a free agent in March, unless he agrees to a contract extension or Denver uses the franchise tag on him. If he does become a free agent, former teammate Eric Decker hopes Thomas would consider joining him on the Jets roster.

Decker spent a few days in Arizona this week with Thomas filming a commercial.

“I’ve been pushing for the entire year now,” Decker said in a telephone interview with The New York Post. “It was just another opportunity to talk to him about it. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens. I think it would be tough for Denver to let him go. So whether they franchise-tag him here in the next month or give him a long-term deal, he’s just one of those premier players in this league.

"If he happens to make it to free agency, I would love to sign him because playing alongside him for four years and especially the last two years made it a lot of fun and made it a lot easier. He’s just one of the great players in this league.”

Thomas recorded a career-best 1,619 receiving yards in 2014. It was his third straight season of 1,000-plus receiving yards. He also had at least 10 touchdowns for a third straight season.


49ers CEO York: 'Defenses are not going to want to play against us'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(2:32 pm ET) 49ers CEO Jed York confirmed the promotion of quarterbacks coach Geep Chryst to offensive coordinator during an interview with NFL Network on Friday. York is particularly excited about Chryst, who has been the quarterbacks coach since 2011, continuing to work with quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

“With Kap, you got a guy in Geep Chryst who knows him better than anybody else,” York said, per CSNBayArea.com. “You have a great guy in (quarterbacks coach) Steve Logan who is coming to come in to work with him on fundamentals and allow us to put together a system that’s going to put Kap in the best position to make plays.

“How many quarterbacks in this league can run 90 yards for a touchdown? I can’t think of many. But you have to put Kap in a position where he can make those plays. And put Kap in a position where we can run the ball (and) we can throw the ball in ways that allow him to be successful and let him be the absolute stud that he can be on the field. And I think that’s what you’re going to see from us next year. Defenses are not going to want to play against us because you’re not going to know where we’re going to hit you.”


Bears' Bennett: Trestman will be 'excellent coordinator' for Ravens
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:34 pm ET) Marc Trestman lasted only two seasons as the Bears coach before losing his job. Bears tight end Martellus Bennett said on NFL Network on Friday that Trestman's demise in Chicago was plagued by his inability to control a locker room full of personalities.

"Trestman, I think, first off, the issue that he had, probably, was managing us all, all the different personalities," Bennett said. "There's a lot of big personalities (in the locker room). And I think, for a first-time head coach in the NFL, dealing with all the personalities that you have, I think that's hard when you got guys like me, you know, (Brandon) Marshall ... Lance Briggs on defense, (Charles) Tillman.

"There's so many guys with such outgoing personalities that managing those guys and bringing them all together is what a leader needs to do, you know? And that's one of the toughest things."

Although Trestman was fired in late December, he wasn't out of work for long, landing the job as the Ravens offensive coordinator after Gary Kubiak left to become the Broncos coach. Bennett believes Trestman will have success in his new role.

"Calling plays, he was excellent," Bennett said. "I think he's going to be an excellent coordinator for the Ravens.  Strategically, he was great. But on the field, guys just weren't executing.

"A lot of it comes back to the player preparation. If you're not preparing to a high level, then the coaches can only do so much; the game's not played on paper, it's played on grass. On paper, we look great. On grass, we looked bad."


Marijuana charges dropped against LeGarrette Blount in Pennsylvania
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(12:10 pm ET) Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount will not face charges for marijuana possession in Pennsylvania, Blount’s attorney said Friday.

Blount and Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell were pulled over and arrested for pot possession in August, a day before a preseason game. Blount satisfied his penalty by working community service in Boston. He will not have to appear in court in Pittsburgh next week. 


Seahawks leaving playing status decision up to Richard Sherman
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:08 pm ET) Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Friday it will be up to cornerback Richard Sherman if he plays in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Patriots. It is not because of the elbow injury he sustained in the NFC title game against the Packers. It's because Sherman's girlfriend might go into labor with the couple's first child sooner than expected.

"If (Sherman) is faced with that decision, we'll support him," Carroll said, per the Associated Press. "I can't wait to see little Petey."

Sherman said Thursday that his unborn son isn't due for another couple of weeks, and added "he was going to do his father a favor" and wait to be born until after the Super Bowl.


 
 
 
Rankings