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2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 1.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Average Draft Position is one of the best tools you can use to study for your Draft Day. It gives you an idea of what the Fantasy community thinks of players you plan to target.

For example, you might be thinking Andre Ellington could be a great pick in Round 5, or Cordarrelle Patterson is someone you hope to get in Round 7. Well, based on ADP on CBSSports.com heading into the first weekend of preseason action, Ellington is being drafted in Round 3 and Patterson in Round 5.

You can still look to get Ellington and Patterson if you're so inclined. But now you have to adjust your planning since they likely won't last as long as you hope. And ADP is something you can use to gauge all your potential sleepers and breakouts and where you might have to draft them.

Along with our rankings, projections, updates and mock drafts, scan the ADP a few times prior to your Draft Day. Public perception is useful information that should help in your preparation to win your league.

The first round

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
10. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. Arian Foster, RB, Texans

Barring an injury, the first four picks will likely remain the same, in some order, throughout the preseason. Charles, McCoy and Peterson will likely jockey for the No. 1 overall pick, with the knock on Charles being the changes on the offensive line, and McCoy detractors being worried about the addition of Darren Sproles. Peterson also has his flaws with injury concerns and fear of a potential breakdown based on career workload, but the Fantasy owners who believe in him tend to overlook that.

I don't mind Manning in the first round, but No. 5 overall is too soon. You're expecting him to again be 88 Fantasy points better than the No. 2 quarterback like he was last year (he outscored Brees 523-435 in standard leagues) and 170 Fantasy points better than the No. 3 quarterback (Andy Dalton scored 353 points). I'd prefer to see Manning in Round 2 personally, but if you want him in Round 1 it should be around No. 9 overall.

It will be interesting to see if Ball remains in the first round following his appendectomy. I'm fine drafting him there, but he could fall back to Round 2 behind other running backs like DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Giovani Bernard and Le'Veon Bell.

I didn't mention Ball falling behind Foster because I also expect Foster's ADP to drop. He recently said he considered retirement prior to this year, and he's missed practice time with an undisclosed injury. After having a back problem last year, he might be too risky for some Fantasy owners in the first round.

Quarterback breakdown

Colin Kaepernick too high: I'm very much a Kaepernick supporter this season. The receiving corps is solid with a healthy Michael Crabtree to go with Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, and the 49ers added Steve Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and Bruce Ellington this offseason. The team invested in Kaepernick with a hefty contract, and the defense could be worse with NaVorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey nursing injuries and Aldon Smith facing a lengthy suspension, meaning more passing for Kaepernick this year.

But he should not be the No. 5 quarterback off the board. And he should not be drafted in Round 4 of a 12-team league unless it's a two-quarterback format.

If someone wants Kaepernick that much then they can have him in that spot. I'll gladly pass on him there for a handful of quarterbacks going later in Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III or Tony Romo. Even though I have Kaepernick ranked higher than Brady and Griffin, the value for those guys is better than Kaepernick in Round 4 with the same type of upside.

Matt Ryan too low: Ryan is someone most Fantasy owners should target instead of avoid, and maybe the appearance on Hard Knocks during training camp will push up his ADP from his current spot as the No. 9 quarterback in Round 6. He should be a stud with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White and an improved offensive line.

Prior to Jones going down last year in Week 5, Ryan was on pace for more than 5,200 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He would have been a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback, and I'm expecting him to reach those heights this year as long as Jones and White are healthy.

If you're a Ryan supporter like I am, you have to hope he doesn't look too good this preseason so his ADP remains this low relative to the other quarterbacks.

Cam Newton falling: Fantasy owners should get used to seeing Newton as the No. 12 quarterback being drafted in Round 8. And depending on your feelings on Newton this season that could either be normal or a great thing.

If you believe Newton will remain a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback like he was last year then you'll be happy he falls this far. Or if you're worried about his revamped receiving corps and offensive line and his expected reduced rushing totals then you'll pass on him altogether.

I have Newton ranked No. 13, but I don't mind drafting him and pairing him with someone like Jay Cutler or Nick Foles. I'd rather start Cutler or Foles, but if they falter then Newton could step into my lineup and hopefully shine.

Running back breakdown

Andre Ellington going too high? Ellington is someone I'm excited about this season, but his price tag might be too high in Round 3 at No. 31 overall. He's going ahead of guys like Alshon Jeffery, Julius Thomas and Randall Cobb, and that could be a mistake.

Now, I understand if you want to draft Ellington, you take him when he's available. But guys like Jeffery, Thomas and Cobb are safer picks in that range with similar upside. If you can draft Ellington in late Round 3 or early Round 4 then that's probably a better spot for him.

Rookie report: This rookie class isn't getting a lot of hype, but there are plenty of quality targets for Fantasy owners in Bishop Sankey, Terrance West, Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Andre Williams, James White and Charles Sims.

Their ADP is as follows: Sankey (No. 37), West (No. 88), Freeman (No. 105), Hyde (No. 125), Hill (No. 127), Williams (No. 132), Mason (No. 136), White (No. 137) and Sims (No. 144).

Sankey should be going in Round 4, I'm OK with West and Freeman in their spots, and I love the value for Hyde, Hill, White and Sims, although their ADP could rise. Williams' ADP will definitely rise after he had a nice preseason debut against the Bills in the Hall of Fame game, and Mason might fall since he's not shining in training camp.

Three failures from last year: Three running back busts from last year in C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice and Trent Richardson, who were first-round picks in the majority of leagues, have some interesting ADP this season. None are being drafted before Round 3.

Spiller is the highest at No. 36, and he could be worth the price tag based on his upside. Rice is next at No. 51, but I expect him to fall with his two-game suspension and expected shared role with Bernard Pierce. And Richardson is at No. 56 overall, but he should rise barring a disappointing preseason. Ideally, you'd get Spiller in Round 4, Richardson in Round 5 and Rice in Round 6 – not on the same team – but that's better value for these running backs considering what happened to them last season and what their circumstances are this year.

Late-round fliers: Some great bargain buys right now in Round 10 or later are Hyde, Hill, Williams, Chris Ivory (No. 133), Stepfan Taylor (No. 137), Mark Ingram (No. 146) and Dexter McCluster (No. 148).

Ivory could easily make the Jets a tandem backfield with Chris Johnson if he can stay healthy. Taylor could help replace Rashard Mendenhall's eight touchdowns for the Cardinals as the No. 2 running back behind Ellington. Ingram could end up being better than Khiry Robinson, who is being drafted in Round 9. And McCluster could play the role of Danny Woodhead in Ken Whisenhunt's offense in Tennessee. Whisenhunt was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers last year.

Wide receiver breakdown

Target elite receivers: Last year, there were five receivers drafted in the first two rounds in the majority of leagues with Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas. Four of the five finished as Top 6 receivers with Jones missing out because of his foot injury.

This year, there are six receivers being drafted in the first two rounds (Brandon Marshall joins the previous group), with Jordy Nelson just outside the Top 24 picks at No. 25. Your Fantasy team would be in great shape if you can lock up one of those studs, and you could even try for two of them to guarantee an amazing roster.

Changing teams, changing values: Some high-profile receivers changed teams this offseason with DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Eric Decker and Hakeem Nicks the biggest names. All are being drafted in Round 6 or later.

I like the value for Sanders (No. 68) and Tate (No. 77) the best since they get an upgrade in offense. Sanders goes from Pittsburgh to Denver, and Tate moves from Seattle to Detroit.

I don't want Jackson in Round 6 at No. 62 overall compared to Sanders or Tate with his move from Philadelphia to Washington. Decker is probably fair value at No. 97 overall going from the Broncos to the Jets, but Fantasy owners recognize the downgrade coming in his production. And Nicks is only worth a late-round flier at No. 122 overall with his move from the Giants to the Colts since he's the No. 3 receiver behind T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne.

Rookie report: This rookie class has plenty of talent with Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham since they were all first-round picks in the NFL Draft. But where do they stack up for Fantasy owners?

Watkins (No. 87) is being drafted in Round 7, Cooks (No. 99) and Evans (No. 108) in Round 9, Benjamin (No. 132) in Round 12 and Beckham (No. 145) in Round 13. My favorite receiver based on his opportunity and value is Cooks.

I'd be OK with Evans in Round 9 and Benjamin in Round 12. Watkins is being drafted a round too soon for my liking since I'm expecting his offense and quarterback to bring down his production. And Beckham is having trouble staying healthy.

The only other rookie receiver I'd consider drafting this year is Jordan Matthews, and his ADP is No. 143 in Round 12. He's well worth it in that spot.

Late-round picks to target: There are so many receivers being drafted in Round 10 or later that I'm excited about, including Benjamin, Marvin Jones (No. 132), Kenny Stills (No. 135), Matthews, Justin Hunter (No. 143), Jarrett Boykin (No. 144), Aaron Dobson (No. 147), Kenny Britt (No. 151), Rod Streater (No. 153) and Andre Holmes (no ADP data yet).

I wouldn't be surprised if all these guys exceed their ADP if they stay healthy.

Tight end breakdown

Gronkowski the steal of the draft? If Rob Gronkowski (knee) is 100 percent healthy and ready for Week 1, he could be the steal of the draft at No. 30 overall in Round 3. That would be more than 20 spots lower than Graham, and the two are basically equal when they play 16 games.

The difference between them is health since Gronkowski has suffered through forearm, back and knee injuries the past two years. But if you knew Gronkowski would play 16 games, and he appears on track for that this season, he will be better value than Graham based on their ADP.

Three worth discussing: Three tight ends stand out to me based on ADP with Vernon Davis (No. 49 overall), Jordan Cameron (No. 68 overall) and Dennis Pitta (No. 77 overall). I'd rather have Pitta over the other two.

He's healthy this season after last year's hip injury, and he's Joe Flacco's No. 1 target in arguably the best tight end offense in the NFL. Gary Kubiak, the Ravens' offensive coordinator, had more targets for tight ends over the past six years as the head coach for the Texans than any other team.

Now, Davis and Cameron are still Top 10 options, but Davis will regress this year and Cameron is being overhyped. Davis was the No. 2 tight end last year behind Graham with 13 touchdowns, but he averaged just six touchdowns the previous three years. If his touchdowns drop, which I expect, he'll suffer.

And Cameron, who is battling a shoulder injury, could struggle with the additional coverage he'll receive with Josh Gordon facing a season-long suspension. If Gordon's suspension is reduced then I'll change my opinion on Cameron and move him up in my rankings.

Late-round value: If you're looking for good value at tight end then put these names on your list since their ADP is in Round 8 or later: Kyle Rudolph (No. 98), Zach Ertz (No. 107), Eric Ebron (No. 111), Ladarius Green (No. 131) and Heath Miller (No. 135).

Rudolph benefits with the addition of offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who helped Cameron have a breakout season last year and has a great history with tight ends. Ertz could be a star this year as he helps the Eagles replace Jackson.

Ebron could be a red-zone threat for the Lions even as a rookie. Green is everyone's favorite breakout candidate even with Antonio Gates still on the roster. And Miller should rebound this year as the No. 2 target for Ben Roethlisberger behind Antonio Brown.

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Player News
Redskins bring back tight end Niles Paul on three-year deal
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:11 pm ET) Redskins have re-signed tight end Niles Paul to a three-year deal worth approximately $10 million, per CBSSports.com NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reports.

Paul, 25, caught 39 passes for 507 yards and one touchdown last season. He has 735 career receiving yards and two scores since joining the league in 2011.


Report: Bears re-sign QB Jimmy Clausen
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:06 pm ET) The Bears have re-signed quarterback Jimmy Clausen on Friday, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.

New Bears coach John Fox drafted Clausen in 2010 when he was in charge of the Panthers. The new Chicago front office are reportedly uncertain of Jay Cutler's future with the club, so Clausen's role with the team remains to be seen.

Clausen, 27, got the start over Cutler in Week 16 before suffering a concussion. He completed 23 of 39 passes for 181 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, and was unable to play the season finale.


Lions lock up kicker Matt Prater to three-year deal
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:59 am ET) The Lions have signed kicker Matt Prater to a three-year deal on Friday, per the team's official website. Terms of the deal were not made public.

Prater was signed to a one-year deal after being cut by the Broncos on Oct. 3. He converted 21 of 26 field goals in 11 games for the Lions in 2014. Prater noted in January that he would like to return to Detroit in 2015, and now his wish has come to fruition.


Percy Harvin's days with the Jets are numbered
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:55 am ET) With Brandon Marshall reportedly traded to the Jets, it appears as if Percy Harvin's days in New York are numbered. According to CBSSports.com NFL Insider Jason la Canfora, the Jets are expected to part ways with Harvin.

Harvin, who reportedly refused a reduction in his 2015 salary, was slated to make $10.5 million next season. The 26-year-old Harvin hauled in 29 passes for 350 yards after joining New York in the middle of the 2014 season. The Jets traded a fifth-round pick for Marshall, and will owe Seattle a sixth-round selection if they cut ties with Harvin.


Bears agree to trade WR Brandon Marshall to the Jets
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(11:13 am ET) The Brandon Marshall era in Chicago has come to an end.

After it was reported earlier in the week that the Bears were shopping the veteran wide receiver, Chicago finally decided to move the embattled wideout. They agreed to trade Marshall to the Jets for a fifth-round draft pick on Friday, according to CBSSports.com NFL Insider Jason La Canfora. The move is pending a physical.

Marshall, 30, grabbed 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns in 13 games during the 2014 season. he has 773 career receptions, which is the most by any active platyer without a playoff apeparance. He is due to make $7.7 million in 2015 and is under contract through 2017.

He will be reunited with new Jets coach Todd Bowles, who was the assistant coach of Miami 2010-11 when Marshall was a member of the Dolphins.


Report: Dolphins confident they will land DT Ndamukong Suh
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:56 am ET) The Dolphins will be calling Jimmy Sexton to discuss their interest in signing Ndamukong Suh once free agency begins. According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, the Dolphins remain confident about their chances of landing Suh.

The impending free agent is scheduled to visit the Raiders next week. Outside of Miami and Oakland, the Colts, Jaguars, Giants, Redskins and the Lions have all reportedly expressed interested in Suh. According to Omar Kelly of the Sun-Sentinel earlier this week, owner Steve Ross may be prepared to make a high bid on Suh, who could sign the largest deal by a non-quarterback in NFL history. Kelly noted that rival executives believe that Suh to Miami is a "done deal."

Suh is coming off a contract that paid him over $12 million annually, and will likely command a $100-plus contract once he hits the open market. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft completed his fifth season in the NFL with the Lions. He has totaled 181 tackles, 36 sacks and one interception in his career.


Report: Saints restructure Marques Colston's contract
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:40 am ET) It appears as if Marques Colston will be staying put with the Saints. According to Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports, Colston has reportedly restructured his contract for the 2015 season.

Details of his restructured contract were not made public. Colston was set to make $6.9 million and count $9.7 million against the cap in 2015. Last season he caught 59 passes for 902 yards.


Colts won't re-sign veteran WR Reggie Wayne
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(10:34 am ET) The Colts announced Friday that they will not re-sign veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne, making him a free agent come Tuesday, per the team's official website. Wayne, who will turn 37 in November, had triceps surgery last week and may still be mulling retirement.

"It will allow (Reggie) to seek a better opportunity for playing time elsewhere if he so chooses," team owner Jim Irsay said in a statement.

Wayne played in 15 regular season games for the Colts in 2014, totaling 779 yards on 64 catches with two touchdowns. He has caught 1,070 passes in 14 seasons in Indianapolis.


Agent: Dolphins, Chiefs, Browns, Texans in on Brian Hartline
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:54 am ET) Drew Rosenhaus, Brian Hartline's agent, made an appearance on WQAM radio in Miami and revealed that the Dolphins, Chiefs, Browns and Texans are all among the options for Hartline, per ESPN.

In a move to save cap space, Hartline was cut by the Dolphins last week. He visited the Browns on Tuesday, the Bears on Wednesday and the Texans on Thursday. The Patriots are also reportedly interested in his services, though Rosenhaus did not mention them. The 28-year-old has never caught more than four touchdowns in a season.


Brian Orakpo open to playing for Cowboys or Texans?
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:47 am ET) Brian Orakpo made an appearance on NFL Network on Friday, and revealed that he'd be open to playing for the Cowboys or Texans -- the teams in his home state of Texas, according to the Washington Post.

Orakpo, 28, was not franchise tagged by the Redskins, and is set to hit the open market on Tuesday if Washington fails to sign him. He said that talks between his camp and the Redskins are "minimal," though he believes a deal can be struck in time if the numbers are right, per ESPN.

"I hope those guys can turn it around and win for those fans and that whole market because it's great for football," Orakpo said.


 
 
 
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