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2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Draft Averages | Rankings | Prep with our podcasts | Draft Index

Fantasy leagues are starting to draft for real now as we head into the second week of preseason action. And as those drafts take place, the Average Draft Position data will start to look a little different.

The preseason performances and continued training camp reports will sway owners based on who is looking good and who is struggling. For example, some guys on the rise include Matt Ryan, Andre Williams and Kenny Britt. Guys who are dropping include Arian Foster, Sammy Watkins and Eric Ebron.

What happens this weekend can change the fortunes for these players and many others, and we encourage you to pay attention to ADP when preparing for your drafts. How the Fantasy community views certain players can help you on Draft Day.

The first round

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
10. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

The only change from last week to now was Foster falling from the No. 12 spot to No. 17. He finally returned to practice this week after being out with a hamstring injury, but his stock is on the decline after last year's back problem, his talk of retirement and his latest ailment.

We would still gamble on Foster in Round 2 if he doesn't suffer a setback with his hamstring or back, but it's a good sign owners aren't drafting him in Round 1. That price was too high given all his red flags.

Murray moving into Round 1 consideration is a good thing, and he's worth it. He had a breakout season last year with career highs in carries (217), rushing yards (1,121), rushing touchdowns (nine), receptions (53), receiving yards (350) and receiving touchdowns (one). He finished as the No. 7 Fantasy running back in standard leagues, and we're expecting another big year from him in 2014.

The addition of Scott Linehan calling plays should allow Murray to improve his receiving totals, and he has the talent to be an elite Fantasy option if he can stay healthy.

Quarterback breakdown

Tom Brady moving up: Fantasy owners are sometimes loyal to a fault, and we like to stick to what we know. It's comforting having a player on your team who has helped you to past success, and Brady fits the bill based on his history.

He has moved up to the No. 5 quarterback and is being drafted at No. 48 overall. That's way too high in standard leagues, although I can understand him going after Manning, Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

I don't have Brady ranked that high, but it wouldn't surprise me if he finished in the Top 5, especially with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. If you're a Brady supporter and want him as your starter then definitely draft him ahead of Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Ryan, among others.

Matt Ryan moving up: Whether it's his appearance on Hard Knocks or our continued glowing endorsement, Ryan is starting to move up the quarterback ranks in ADP. It could just be Fantasy owners realizing he was too low before and has the chance for a big year.

Ryan moved up one spot to No. 8 ahead of Nick Foles, who had a dismal preseason opener against the Bears with two interceptions. Ryan, meanwhile, looked sharp against the Dolphins, and he's in line for a big season with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White.

Ryan is a quarterback I'm counting on for a Top 5 finish this year, and I would draft him ahead of Brady.

Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer gaining momentum: Two backup quarterbacks to target this season are Roethlisberger and Palmer. They both have the chance to finish as Top 12 options.

Roethlisberger was actually the No. 10 Fantasy quarterback last season, and he was dominant down the stretch with at least 20 Fantasy points in five of his final seven games. He should pick up where last season left off.

Palmer also closed last season on a high note with at least 20 Fantasy points in four of his final seven outings. He also should stay hot with a dominant receiving corps led by Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.

Both quarterbacks have seen a rise in ADP (Roethlisberger is up to No. 117 overall and Palmer is at No. 131). You should target these guys as high-end No. 2 quarterbacks with starting potential.

Running back breakdown

Bishop Sankey slipping: Even though Sankey was OK in the first preseason game with 13 carries for 37 yards and three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, Fantasy owners are nervous because the rookie was third on the depth chart behind Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. Have no fear.

Sankey will still be the best running back for the Titans, and he's worth drafting toward the end of Round 3 or beginning of Round 4 in the majority of leagues. His ADP has dropped him into Round 4, which is great because the more he falls the better his value will be.

Still, we'd like to see the Titans use Sankey as the starter, but that move will come sooner rather than later.

Preseason stars on rise: Two running backs who have done well early in the preseason are Andre Williams from the Giants and Mark Ingram from the Saints. They are moving up in the eyes of owners.

Williams has two preseason games under his belt already with the Hall of Fame game, and he had seven carries for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Bills and then seven carries for 35 yards against the Steelers. He'll share playing time with Rashad Jennings, but Williams should be on your radar as a No. 3 running back in standard leagues. His ADP is now at No. 124 overall and rising.

Ingram will enter the season as the starter for the Saints, although that means little for that backfield with Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Still, Ingram started the preseason off right with eight carries for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. His ADP is now at No. 140 overall, and we recommend drafting him with a late-round flier in standard formats.

Dolphins going in different directions: Knowshon Moreno was back at practice this week following offseason knee surgery, but he missed the first preseason game at Atlanta. With Moreno out, Lamar Miller has been gaining momentum, including a rise in his ADP to No. 92 overall. Moreno, meanwhile, is down to No. 101.

We would definitely draft Miller ahead of Moreno, but it will be interesting to see how Moreno does when he's back in game action. He could take away passing downs from Miller given his edge in pass protection.

But until we see Moreno shine and Miller falter then continue to draft Miller first, and he's a flex option on Draft Day. Moreno is only worth a late-round pick if you're drafting this weekend.

Wide receiver breakdown

Golden Tate's one catch a good one: Tate had just one catch for 14 yards in his preseason debut with the Lions against the Browns, but it was enough to sway Fantasy owners. His ADP is up to No. 76 and rising.

Should Tate continue to play well in the preseason, Fantasy owners will further buy into him as a breakout candidate. Playing for the Lions compared to the Seahawks will only enhance his Fantasy value, and he should have a big year in 2014.

He's currently being drafted behind DeSean Jackson (No. 63 overall), Emmanuel Sanders (No. 68) and Julian Edelman (No. 74), but I think Tate has a higher ceiling than those options.

Rookies going in different directions: Two high-profile rookie receivers in Watkins and Mike Evans are dropping in ADP. Watkins is down to No. 87 overall, and Evans is at No. 111.

The reason for the decline is Watkins has just three catches for 21 yards in two preseason games against the Giants and Panthers. And Evans had no catches in his preseason debut against the Jaguars. Now, both these receivers will definitely improve, but we'd like to see more from these guys in the preseason, since their offenses and quarterbacks are shaky at best.

Conversely, two rookie receivers on the rise include Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin. Cooks had five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Rams, and that was without Drew Brees (oblique). And Benjamin had one catch for 29 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, and that was without Cam Newton (ankle).

Cooks is now at No. 97 overall in ADP, and Benjamin is at No. 127. They should both continue to rise if the early preseason performances are any indication of what's to come this year.

Is Kenny Britt back? Britt had no catches or targets in the preseason opener against the Saints, but his ADP is on the rise to No. 150 overall. The early reports have been that Britt looks like his old self prior to tearing his ACL in 2011.

The Rams need help at receiver this season, and a rejuvenated and healthy Britt could be the answer. We'd like to see something from him this preseason, but he's definitely worth drafting with a late-round flier in all leagues.

Tight end breakdown

Greg Olsen on the rise: Olsen had just two catches for 22 yards in the preseason opener against Buffalo, and that was without Newton playing. But his ADP is up to No. 85 overall, and he's the No. 8 tight end off the board.

We like Olsen as a No. 1 tight end, especially with the Panthers needing him more this season with a revamped receiving corps. I'd rather have Jordan Reed, who is going after Olsen in ADP at No. 86 overall, but Olsen is still a solid option in all formats.

Eric Ebron has disappointing debut: Ebron has been a disappointment so far through training camp and the preseason. He's struggled with drops in camp and had just one catch for 2 yards against the Browns on four targets.

As a result, Ebron's ADP is down to No. 117. We expect him to improve, especially as the season goes on, but he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy tight end instead of a starting option.

Delanie Walker moving up: Walker didn't catch a pass in the preseason opener against the Packers, but his ADP is on the rise to No. 149 overall. He's had a good training camp, and the Titans are expecting a big season after he had 60 catches for 571 yards and six touchdowns last year.

Walker could easily be a Top 12 tight end in 2014. There are 11 tight ends worth drafting in all leagues with Graham, Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Olsen, Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz. But after that group there are a number of tight ends who could be a starting-caliber option.

Those tight ends include Walker, Ebron, Martellus Bennett, Ladarius Green, Heath Miller, Antonio Gates and Charles Clay. If you're into streaming tight ends, this could be a fun year with plenty of alternatives.

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Player News
Bills WR Marcus Easley returns to practice Wednesday
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5:46 pm ET) Bills wide receiver Marcus Easley returned to practice in a limited capacity Wednesday.

Easley has missed the last four weeks while recovering from a sprained MCL. If he's healthy enough to play Sunday, his presence on special teams could help counter the loss of Anthony Dixon on the unit, as he's expected to fill a much bigger offensive role in the wake of multiple injuries to the team's running backs.


Cordarrelle Patterson no longer on injury report
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:43 pm ET) Vikings second-year wideout Cordarrelle Patterson, who had dealt with a hip flexor strain since Week 5, is not listed on the team's injury report, according to 1500ESPN.com. Patterson has been a big disappointment, catching 19 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown in seven games.

Minnesota visits Tampa Bay on Sunday.


49ers WR Steve Johnson making most of limited snaps
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:30 pm ET) 49ers wideout Steve Johnson has played 31 percent of the team's offensive snaps, yet he ranks third on the team in catches (25) and receiving yards (315) and is tied for the team lead with three touchdown grabs, notes the San Francisco Chronicle. Colin Kaepernick has a sterling 127.8 passer rating when targeting Johnson, completing 25 of 31 throws, the report said.

Despite his success, Johnson might have a hard time earning more time because Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin are locked in as starters and Brandon Lloyd is a deep threat coaches want to get on the field, the paper said.

For now, the paper envisions Johnson continuing to split No. 3 receiver duties with Lloyd, who has played 38 percent of the snaps.


Rams WR Kenny Britt a non-participant Wednesday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:14 pm ET) Rams wideout Kenny Britt did not practice Wednesday due to an ankle injury, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. St. Louis visits Kansas City on Sunday.

Bears CB Kyle Fuller up in the air for Sunday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(5:01 pm ET) Bears rookie corner Kyle Fuller sat out Wednesday's practice with a hip pointer and a broken right hand, and his status for Sunday's game at New England is uncertain, reports the Chicago Tribune. It would be a big blow to the Bears if they don't have Fuller, who's made 33 tackles and three interceptions in seven games.

Coach Marc Trestman has said Fuller does not need surgery and could play with a broken hand.


Saints RB Khiry Robinson held out Wednesday
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4:34 pm ET) Saints running back Khiry Robinson was held out of Wednesday's practice due to a forearm injury. Robinson left after playing five snaps Week 7 at Detroit, but said he'll be fine for Sunday night's game against the Packers.

"I have a little boo-boo, but I'm straight," he said, per The New Orleans Advocate.


Colts have confidence in Hakeem Nicks if Reggie Wayne is sidelined
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(4:33 pm ET) If Reggie Wayne is unable to play Week 8 against the Steelers due to an elbow injury, Colts coach Chuck Pagano expressed complete confidence in veteran receiver Hakeem Nicks helping pick up the slack in Wayne's absence.

"He comes here every day with his hat on, lunch pail, ready to work," Pagano said about Nicks, per ESPN. "He’s a competitive guy. We have a ton of competitive guys in that locker room. They all want to contribute and they all want to make plays. He understands that. He’ll be ready no matter when his number is called. He knows his stuff; he practices hard, prepares hard."

Nicks has posted modest numbers in his first season with the Colts, totaling 17 catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns in seven games.


Emmanuel Sanders looking for more
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(4:33 pm ET) If Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is to bounce back from a surprisingly quiet showing over the last two weeks, he will have to do so in Week 8 against a Chargers defense that has more than held their own against wide receivers this season.

The Chargers rank sixth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season, and have done a fantastic job overall, with one exception. The Raiders -- yes, the Raiders -- absolutely torched the Chargers in Week 6, with three receivers going off for double digit Fantasy points.

The Chargers have allowed just one other receiver to score 10 or more Fantasy points, though they also just haven't faced off against many good passing offenses. The Broncos racked up 519 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Chargers last week, so they should have some success.

Sanders has at least 8 Fantasy points in five of six games this season, and should be able to keep that up even in the face of the Chargers' success. Keep him active in most Fantasy formats for Week 8.


Jimmy Graham limited in practice
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4:30 pm ET) Saints tight end Jimmy Graham was limited in Wednesday's practice ahead of Sunday's game against the Packers. Graham, who's nursing a shoulder injury, played 30 snaps in the Week 7 loss at Detroit. He was targeted twice without making a catch.

Pierre Thomas sits as expected
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4:27 pm ET) Saints running back Pierre Thomas did not practice Wednesday, as expected. The team listed him with shoulder and rib injuries. Reports have suggested Thomas will miss two to three games, but the team has not confirmed that.

 
 
 
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