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2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Draft Averages | Rankings | Prep with our podcasts | Draft Index

Fantasy leagues are starting to draft for real now as we head into the second week of preseason action. And as those drafts take place, the Average Draft Position data will start to look a little different.

The preseason performances and continued training camp reports will sway owners based on who is looking good and who is struggling. For example, some guys on the rise include Matt Ryan, Andre Williams and Kenny Britt. Guys who are dropping include Arian Foster, Sammy Watkins and Eric Ebron.

What happens this weekend can change the fortunes for these players and many others, and we encourage you to pay attention to ADP when preparing for your drafts. How the Fantasy community views certain players can help you on Draft Day.

The first round

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
10. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

The only change from last week to now was Foster falling from the No. 12 spot to No. 17. He finally returned to practice this week after being out with a hamstring injury, but his stock is on the decline after last year's back problem, his talk of retirement and his latest ailment.

We would still gamble on Foster in Round 2 if he doesn't suffer a setback with his hamstring or back, but it's a good sign owners aren't drafting him in Round 1. That price was too high given all his red flags.

Murray moving into Round 1 consideration is a good thing, and he's worth it. He had a breakout season last year with career highs in carries (217), rushing yards (1,121), rushing touchdowns (nine), receptions (53), receiving yards (350) and receiving touchdowns (one). He finished as the No. 7 Fantasy running back in standard leagues, and we're expecting another big year from him in 2014.

The addition of Scott Linehan calling plays should allow Murray to improve his receiving totals, and he has the talent to be an elite Fantasy option if he can stay healthy.

Quarterback breakdown

Tom Brady moving up: Fantasy owners are sometimes loyal to a fault, and we like to stick to what we know. It's comforting having a player on your team who has helped you to past success, and Brady fits the bill based on his history.

He has moved up to the No. 5 quarterback and is being drafted at No. 48 overall. That's way too high in standard leagues, although I can understand him going after Manning, Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

I don't have Brady ranked that high, but it wouldn't surprise me if he finished in the Top 5, especially with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. If you're a Brady supporter and want him as your starter then definitely draft him ahead of Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Ryan, among others.

Matt Ryan moving up: Whether it's his appearance on Hard Knocks or our continued glowing endorsement, Ryan is starting to move up the quarterback ranks in ADP. It could just be Fantasy owners realizing he was too low before and has the chance for a big year.

Ryan moved up one spot to No. 8 ahead of Nick Foles, who had a dismal preseason opener against the Bears with two interceptions. Ryan, meanwhile, looked sharp against the Dolphins, and he's in line for a big season with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White.

Ryan is a quarterback I'm counting on for a Top 5 finish this year, and I would draft him ahead of Brady.

Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer gaining momentum: Two backup quarterbacks to target this season are Roethlisberger and Palmer. They both have the chance to finish as Top 12 options.

Roethlisberger was actually the No. 10 Fantasy quarterback last season, and he was dominant down the stretch with at least 20 Fantasy points in five of his final seven games. He should pick up where last season left off.

Palmer also closed last season on a high note with at least 20 Fantasy points in four of his final seven outings. He also should stay hot with a dominant receiving corps led by Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.

Both quarterbacks have seen a rise in ADP (Roethlisberger is up to No. 117 overall and Palmer is at No. 131). You should target these guys as high-end No. 2 quarterbacks with starting potential.

Running back breakdown

Bishop Sankey slipping: Even though Sankey was OK in the first preseason game with 13 carries for 37 yards and three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, Fantasy owners are nervous because the rookie was third on the depth chart behind Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. Have no fear.

Sankey will still be the best running back for the Titans, and he's worth drafting toward the end of Round 3 or beginning of Round 4 in the majority of leagues. His ADP has dropped him into Round 4, which is great because the more he falls the better his value will be.

Still, we'd like to see the Titans use Sankey as the starter, but that move will come sooner rather than later.

Preseason stars on rise: Two running backs who have done well early in the preseason are Andre Williams from the Giants and Mark Ingram from the Saints. They are moving up in the eyes of owners.

Williams has two preseason games under his belt already with the Hall of Fame game, and he had seven carries for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Bills and then seven carries for 35 yards against the Steelers. He'll share playing time with Rashad Jennings, but Williams should be on your radar as a No. 3 running back in standard leagues. His ADP is now at No. 124 overall and rising.

Ingram will enter the season as the starter for the Saints, although that means little for that backfield with Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Still, Ingram started the preseason off right with eight carries for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. His ADP is now at No. 140 overall, and we recommend drafting him with a late-round flier in standard formats.

Dolphins going in different directions: Knowshon Moreno was back at practice this week following offseason knee surgery, but he missed the first preseason game at Atlanta. With Moreno out, Lamar Miller has been gaining momentum, including a rise in his ADP to No. 92 overall. Moreno, meanwhile, is down to No. 101.

We would definitely draft Miller ahead of Moreno, but it will be interesting to see how Moreno does when he's back in game action. He could take away passing downs from Miller given his edge in pass protection.

But until we see Moreno shine and Miller falter then continue to draft Miller first, and he's a flex option on Draft Day. Moreno is only worth a late-round pick if you're drafting this weekend.

Wide receiver breakdown

Golden Tate's one catch a good one: Tate had just one catch for 14 yards in his preseason debut with the Lions against the Browns, but it was enough to sway Fantasy owners. His ADP is up to No. 76 and rising.

Should Tate continue to play well in the preseason, Fantasy owners will further buy into him as a breakout candidate. Playing for the Lions compared to the Seahawks will only enhance his Fantasy value, and he should have a big year in 2014.

He's currently being drafted behind DeSean Jackson (No. 63 overall), Emmanuel Sanders (No. 68) and Julian Edelman (No. 74), but I think Tate has a higher ceiling than those options.

Rookies going in different directions: Two high-profile rookie receivers in Watkins and Mike Evans are dropping in ADP. Watkins is down to No. 87 overall, and Evans is at No. 111.

The reason for the decline is Watkins has just three catches for 21 yards in two preseason games against the Giants and Panthers. And Evans had no catches in his preseason debut against the Jaguars. Now, both these receivers will definitely improve, but we'd like to see more from these guys in the preseason, since their offenses and quarterbacks are shaky at best.

Conversely, two rookie receivers on the rise include Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin. Cooks had five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Rams, and that was without Drew Brees (oblique). And Benjamin had one catch for 29 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, and that was without Cam Newton (ankle).

Cooks is now at No. 97 overall in ADP, and Benjamin is at No. 127. They should both continue to rise if the early preseason performances are any indication of what's to come this year.

Is Kenny Britt back? Britt had no catches or targets in the preseason opener against the Saints, but his ADP is on the rise to No. 150 overall. The early reports have been that Britt looks like his old self prior to tearing his ACL in 2011.

The Rams need help at receiver this season, and a rejuvenated and healthy Britt could be the answer. We'd like to see something from him this preseason, but he's definitely worth drafting with a late-round flier in all leagues.

Tight end breakdown

Greg Olsen on the rise: Olsen had just two catches for 22 yards in the preseason opener against Buffalo, and that was without Newton playing. But his ADP is up to No. 85 overall, and he's the No. 8 tight end off the board.

We like Olsen as a No. 1 tight end, especially with the Panthers needing him more this season with a revamped receiving corps. I'd rather have Jordan Reed, who is going after Olsen in ADP at No. 86 overall, but Olsen is still a solid option in all formats.

Eric Ebron has disappointing debut: Ebron has been a disappointment so far through training camp and the preseason. He's struggled with drops in camp and had just one catch for 2 yards against the Browns on four targets.

As a result, Ebron's ADP is down to No. 117. We expect him to improve, especially as the season goes on, but he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy tight end instead of a starting option.

Delanie Walker moving up: Walker didn't catch a pass in the preseason opener against the Packers, but his ADP is on the rise to No. 149 overall. He's had a good training camp, and the Titans are expecting a big season after he had 60 catches for 571 yards and six touchdowns last year.

Walker could easily be a Top 12 tight end in 2014. There are 11 tight ends worth drafting in all leagues with Graham, Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Olsen, Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz. But after that group there are a number of tight ends who could be a starting-caliber option.

Those tight ends include Walker, Ebron, Martellus Bennett, Ladarius Green, Heath Miller, Antonio Gates and Charles Clay. If you're into streaming tight ends, this could be a fun year with plenty of alternatives.

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Player News
Chiefs' Mike Catapano on his health: I feel better than ever
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(6:41 pm ET) After missing the entire 2014 season with a gastrointestinal virus, Chiefs defensive end Mike Catapano was able to participate in the team's OTA on Wednesday, reports The Kansas City Star.

"Every time I step on the field now it's with purpose and with extra vigor that I never really had," Catapano said. "It feels great. I feel better than ever."

Catapano played in 15 games during his rookie season in 2013 and he totaled four tackles and one sack. He said he's ready to surpass that in 2015.

"I'm ready to show that I offer a lot to this team. I'm ready to step up in big situations and starting situations," Catapano said. "I just want to keep getting better every day… and play to the best of my abilities."


Broncos' Manning, Sanders keeping up with Thomas during holdout
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(6:05 pm ET) Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is holding out of offseason workouts while he continues to negotiate a long-term deal with the team, but teammates Emmanuel Sanders and Peyton Manning have been keeping up with the star receiver, the Denver Post reports.

"One thing a lot of people don’t realize is when you’re playing on a one-year deal, there’s a lot of things going through your head," Sanders said. "As much as you guys want to say, ‘Don’t think about it,' of course it’s going to cross your mind because you’re talking about a lot of money at stake. When you’re playing these one-year deals, it’s a lot of stress on you. No matter how much you don’t want it to be, it’s going to happen. We’re all human."

Manning would like to have Thomas in workouts but understands the business aspects of his decision.

"I keep up with Demaryius. He’s my buddy," Manning said. "They got that business side of it to work out, but he’s been a great teammate to me, been a great friend to me since I’ve been here in Denver, so I keep up with him. Obviously want him to get back here as soon as possible, but we want what’s best for him, and he certainly deserves what’s best for him."

Thomas has started 16 games for three straight season, topping 90 receptions, 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns in each.


Raiders sign Horace Miller, Milton Williams
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5:30 pm ET) The Raiders have signed linebacker Horace Miller and wide receiver Milton Williams, the team announced on Wednesday.

Miller was waived by the Panthers earlier this offseason after spending one week on the active roster but seeing no playing time. Williams originally signed with the Raiders earlier this month before being waived a few days later.


Titans project DE DaQuan Jones as starter
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5:23 pm ET) Titans defensive end DaQuan Jones started the final game of his rookie season against the Colts and is on track to open the 2015 season in the same role, The Tennessean reports.

"He's a starter at end, it's what we project," coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "In the last game against Indianapolis, Jones played really well."

A fourth-round pick out of Penn State, Jones finished his rookie season with 13 tackles and one sack, with the sack and more than half of his tackles coming in his lone start at the end of the year.


Browns waive Nick McDonald
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(5:13 pm ET) The Browns waived offensive lineman Nick McDonald with an injury designation (knee), the team announced on Wednesday.

McDonald made seven starts at center last season after spending the first six weeks of the season on the reserve/non-football injury list with a wrist issue.


Titans DT Sammie Lee Hill diagnosed with knee sprain
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(5:08 pm ET) Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt said Wednesday defensive tackle Sammie Lee Hill was diagnosed with a knee sprain, reports The Tennessean.

Hill the sustained the injury Tuesday, but he won't require surgery.


Texans LB Brian Cushing on his health: Best I've felt in a while
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(4:53 pm ET) Texans linebacker Brian Cushing participated in Wednesday's OTA and he said he hasn't been this healthy in a long time, reports the Houston Chronicle.

"I'm the best physically I've been in a while," he said.

During the offseason, Cushing had surgery on his broken right wrist as well as arthroscopic procedures on his left knee and left ankle. He was able to play in 14 games in 2014 after only appearing in 13 games during the 2012 and 2013 seasons.


Broncos DE Shane Ray (toe) to miss OTAs this week
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(4:37 pm ET) A toe injury will prevent Broncos defensive end Shane Ray from participating in OTAs this week, reports 9News.com.

Coach Gary Kubiak said Ray will start participating in individual drills next week. The injury also prevented Ray from taking part in the team's rookie minicamp earlier in May. 


Report: Broncos TE Jeff Heuerman undergoes knee surgery
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(4:30 pm ET) Broncos tight end Jeff Heuerman underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn ACL in his left knee, reports 9News.com.

He is expected to miss the entire 2015 season. Heuerman was drafted in the third round during the 2015 draft.


Cowboys RB Joseph Randle confident he can replace DeMarco Murray
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(4:19 pm ET) With last season's leading rusher no longer on the team, Cowboys running back Joseph Randle said he can replace the 1,845 rushing yards DeMarco Murray produced last season, reports The Dallas Morning News.

"He had a good year last year, and I got to sit back and watch a lot," Randle said, "and I felt like there was a lot of meat left on the bone."

Randle did get first-team reps during Wednesday's OTA session and he said he's ready to handle a heavy workload this season.

"I'm going to try to go out there and grind as hard as I can and see which role I end up in," Randle said. "If they ask me to do that, I'm ready for it. And if they believe in me, I believe in myself, that’s for sure."

Randle has been arrested twice in the last year, but he said he's learned from his mistakes.

"Everything you go through in life you learn from it and I learned from it and I've moved past it. I've grown up," Randle said. "I've made some young and silly mistakes, but I'm moving forward."


 
 
 
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