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2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 2.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Draft Averages | Rankings | Prep with our podcasts | Draft Index

Fantasy leagues are starting to draft for real now as we head into the second week of preseason action. And as those drafts take place, the Average Draft Position data will start to look a little different.

The preseason performances and continued training camp reports will sway owners based on who is looking good and who is struggling. For example, some guys on the rise include Matt Ryan, Andre Williams and Kenny Britt. Guys who are dropping include Arian Foster, Sammy Watkins and Eric Ebron.

What happens this weekend can change the fortunes for these players and many others, and we encourage you to pay attention to ADP when preparing for your drafts. How the Fantasy community views certain players can help you on Draft Day.

The first round

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
5. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
10. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
11. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

The only change from last week to now was Foster falling from the No. 12 spot to No. 17. He finally returned to practice this week after being out with a hamstring injury, but his stock is on the decline after last year's back problem, his talk of retirement and his latest ailment.

We would still gamble on Foster in Round 2 if he doesn't suffer a setback with his hamstring or back, but it's a good sign owners aren't drafting him in Round 1. That price was too high given all his red flags.

Murray moving into Round 1 consideration is a good thing, and he's worth it. He had a breakout season last year with career highs in carries (217), rushing yards (1,121), rushing touchdowns (nine), receptions (53), receiving yards (350) and receiving touchdowns (one). He finished as the No. 7 Fantasy running back in standard leagues, and we're expecting another big year from him in 2014.

The addition of Scott Linehan calling plays should allow Murray to improve his receiving totals, and he has the talent to be an elite Fantasy option if he can stay healthy.

Quarterback breakdown

Tom Brady moving up: Fantasy owners are sometimes loyal to a fault, and we like to stick to what we know. It's comforting having a player on your team who has helped you to past success, and Brady fits the bill based on his history.

He has moved up to the No. 5 quarterback and is being drafted at No. 48 overall. That's way too high in standard leagues, although I can understand him going after Manning, Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

I don't have Brady ranked that high, but it wouldn't surprise me if he finished in the Top 5, especially with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. If you're a Brady supporter and want him as your starter then definitely draft him ahead of Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Ryan, among others.

Matt Ryan moving up: Whether it's his appearance on Hard Knocks or our continued glowing endorsement, Ryan is starting to move up the quarterback ranks in ADP. It could just be Fantasy owners realizing he was too low before and has the chance for a big year.

Ryan moved up one spot to No. 8 ahead of Nick Foles, who had a dismal preseason opener against the Bears with two interceptions. Ryan, meanwhile, looked sharp against the Dolphins, and he's in line for a big season with a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White.

Ryan is a quarterback I'm counting on for a Top 5 finish this year, and I would draft him ahead of Brady.

Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer gaining momentum: Two backup quarterbacks to target this season are Roethlisberger and Palmer. They both have the chance to finish as Top 12 options.

Roethlisberger was actually the No. 10 Fantasy quarterback last season, and he was dominant down the stretch with at least 20 Fantasy points in five of his final seven games. He should pick up where last season left off.

Palmer also closed last season on a high note with at least 20 Fantasy points in four of his final seven outings. He also should stay hot with a dominant receiving corps led by Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.

Both quarterbacks have seen a rise in ADP (Roethlisberger is up to No. 117 overall and Palmer is at No. 131). You should target these guys as high-end No. 2 quarterbacks with starting potential.

Running back breakdown

Bishop Sankey slipping: Even though Sankey was OK in the first preseason game with 13 carries for 37 yards and three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, Fantasy owners are nervous because the rookie was third on the depth chart behind Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. Have no fear.

Sankey will still be the best running back for the Titans, and he's worth drafting toward the end of Round 3 or beginning of Round 4 in the majority of leagues. His ADP has dropped him into Round 4, which is great because the more he falls the better his value will be.

Still, we'd like to see the Titans use Sankey as the starter, but that move will come sooner rather than later.

Preseason stars on rise: Two running backs who have done well early in the preseason are Andre Williams from the Giants and Mark Ingram from the Saints. They are moving up in the eyes of owners.

Williams has two preseason games under his belt already with the Hall of Fame game, and he had seven carries for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Bills and then seven carries for 35 yards against the Steelers. He'll share playing time with Rashad Jennings, but Williams should be on your radar as a No. 3 running back in standard leagues. His ADP is now at No. 124 overall and rising.

Ingram will enter the season as the starter for the Saints, although that means little for that backfield with Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Still, Ingram started the preseason off right with eight carries for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. His ADP is now at No. 140 overall, and we recommend drafting him with a late-round flier in standard formats.

Dolphins going in different directions: Knowshon Moreno was back at practice this week following offseason knee surgery, but he missed the first preseason game at Atlanta. With Moreno out, Lamar Miller has been gaining momentum, including a rise in his ADP to No. 92 overall. Moreno, meanwhile, is down to No. 101.

We would definitely draft Miller ahead of Moreno, but it will be interesting to see how Moreno does when he's back in game action. He could take away passing downs from Miller given his edge in pass protection.

But until we see Moreno shine and Miller falter then continue to draft Miller first, and he's a flex option on Draft Day. Moreno is only worth a late-round pick if you're drafting this weekend.

Wide receiver breakdown

Golden Tate's one catch a good one: Tate had just one catch for 14 yards in his preseason debut with the Lions against the Browns, but it was enough to sway Fantasy owners. His ADP is up to No. 76 and rising.

Should Tate continue to play well in the preseason, Fantasy owners will further buy into him as a breakout candidate. Playing for the Lions compared to the Seahawks will only enhance his Fantasy value, and he should have a big year in 2014.

He's currently being drafted behind DeSean Jackson (No. 63 overall), Emmanuel Sanders (No. 68) and Julian Edelman (No. 74), but I think Tate has a higher ceiling than those options.

Rookies going in different directions: Two high-profile rookie receivers in Watkins and Mike Evans are dropping in ADP. Watkins is down to No. 87 overall, and Evans is at No. 111.

The reason for the decline is Watkins has just three catches for 21 yards in two preseason games against the Giants and Panthers. And Evans had no catches in his preseason debut against the Jaguars. Now, both these receivers will definitely improve, but we'd like to see more from these guys in the preseason, since their offenses and quarterbacks are shaky at best.

Conversely, two rookie receivers on the rise include Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin. Cooks had five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Rams, and that was without Drew Brees (oblique). And Benjamin had one catch for 29 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, and that was without Cam Newton (ankle).

Cooks is now at No. 97 overall in ADP, and Benjamin is at No. 127. They should both continue to rise if the early preseason performances are any indication of what's to come this year.

Is Kenny Britt back? Britt had no catches or targets in the preseason opener against the Saints, but his ADP is on the rise to No. 150 overall. The early reports have been that Britt looks like his old self prior to tearing his ACL in 2011.

The Rams need help at receiver this season, and a rejuvenated and healthy Britt could be the answer. We'd like to see something from him this preseason, but he's definitely worth drafting with a late-round flier in all leagues.

Tight end breakdown

Greg Olsen on the rise: Olsen had just two catches for 22 yards in the preseason opener against Buffalo, and that was without Newton playing. But his ADP is up to No. 85 overall, and he's the No. 8 tight end off the board.

We like Olsen as a No. 1 tight end, especially with the Panthers needing him more this season with a revamped receiving corps. I'd rather have Jordan Reed, who is going after Olsen in ADP at No. 86 overall, but Olsen is still a solid option in all formats.

Eric Ebron has disappointing debut: Ebron has been a disappointment so far through training camp and the preseason. He's struggled with drops in camp and had just one catch for 2 yards against the Browns on four targets.

As a result, Ebron's ADP is down to No. 117. We expect him to improve, especially as the season goes on, but he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy tight end instead of a starting option.

Delanie Walker moving up: Walker didn't catch a pass in the preseason opener against the Packers, but his ADP is on the rise to No. 149 overall. He's had a good training camp, and the Titans are expecting a big season after he had 60 catches for 571 yards and six touchdowns last year.

Walker could easily be a Top 12 tight end in 2014. There are 11 tight ends worth drafting in all leagues with Graham, Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Olsen, Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz. But after that group there are a number of tight ends who could be a starting-caliber option.

Those tight ends include Walker, Ebron, Martellus Bennett, Ladarius Green, Heath Miller, Antonio Gates and Charles Clay. If you're into streaming tight ends, this could be a fun year with plenty of alternatives.

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Player News
Jets' Rontez Miles suffers season-ending shin injury
by Sean d'Oliveira | CBSSports.com
(10:05 am ET) The Jets announced safety Rontez Miles sustained a shin injury during Thursday’s practice and had to have surgery.

Miles was just promoted to the Jets’ 53-man roster Tuesday, but the injury is believed to be serious enough to end his season.


Report: Cowboys more optimistic about DeMarco Murray playing
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:58 am ET) Early reports out of Dallas indicate that the Cowboys remain more optimistic about running back DeMarco Murray playing Sunday against Indianapolis, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network. Murray underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his left hand on Monday and was able to practice two days after the procedure.

"He's tough, he has a high pain threshold and he feels good. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays," a source told Rapoport.


Packers' Davon House unlikely to return in regular season
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12:03 am ET) Packers cornerback Davon House is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season while recovering from an injury to his right shoulder blade, the Journal Sentinel reports.

"I have the mind-set, I'll be back tomorrow," House said. "Will I be back tomorrow, most likely not. I can't give a time frame. Hopefully, sooner than later. Talking to Doc (team physician Patrick McKenzie), we're going to take it week by week, day by day. But they said my improvement is where we want it to be. The good news was that I was able to start running today, which was great."

House may be able to return during the postseason, so the team has decided not to place him on injured reserve at this time.


Jaguars DT Roy Miller will need surgery for meniscus injury
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Jaguars defensive tackle Roy Miller will require surgery on his meniscus injury, the Florida Times-Union reports.

Miller sustained the injury during the team's Week 15 loss to the Ravens and was inactive Thursday. He'll end the season with 30 tackles and one sack.


Titans kicker Ryan Succop hits both field goals Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans kicker Ryan Succop hit both his field goals Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Succop was tested early, but managed to convert on a 50 yard attempt. Things got easier late in the contest, as Succop hit from 23 yards. He added one extra point. Succop will look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans RB Leon Washington makes an impact Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans running back Leon Washington made an impact Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Washington wasn't a huge factor in the running the game, gaining 11 yards on four carries. He excelled in the passing game, however. Washington hauled in seven catches, gaining 62 yards. He finished second on the team in receiving for the game. Washington was the only player on the team to score, pulling down an 8 yard touchdown pass on the team's first drive. 

He'll look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans WR Kendall Wright leads the way Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans wideout Kendall Wright led the team in receiving Week 16.

Wright came into the game questionable due to a broken hand, but was able to excel despite the issue. He only hauled in four passes, but was able to connect on some deep passes. In the fourth quarter, Wright pulled down a 39 yard reception. He finished with 73 yards on five targets.

Wright will look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans RB Shonn Greene receives seven carries Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans running back Shonn Greene carried the ball just seven times Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Greene took a backseat to Bishop Sankey during the contest, though neither did all that much on the ground. Greene gained 28 yards, good for a 4.0 yards per carry average. Greene was not involved in the passing game, and did not receive a target.

He'll look for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans RB Bishop Sankey fails to do much Week 16
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans running back Bishop Sankey failed to do much Week 16 against the Jaguars.

Sankey led all Titans runners, carrying the ball 14 times for 44 yards. He was held to just 3.1 yards per carry. Sankey had a hard time breaking anything loose, with his longest carry going for just 8 yards. He wasn't all that involved in the passing game either, coming up with one reception for 9 yards.

Sankey will hope for more Week 17 against the Colts. 


Titans QB Charlie Whitehurst tosses one score on Thursday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12/18/2014) Titans quarterback Charlie Whitehurst tossed one touchdown on Thursday against the Jaguars.

Whitehurst completed 24 of 35 passes for 287 yards and a touchdown. He did not turn the ball over during the contest. Whitehurst looked to attack Jacksonville down the field, averaging 8.2 yards per completion. This sometimes came back to bite him, as he wound up taking four sacks. Whitehurst's only score came on the team's first drive. On the 13th play of the drive, Whitehurst found running back Leon Washington for the 8 yard score. Whitehurst also picked up 12 rushing yards on three attempts.

Depending on the team's injury situation at quarterback, Whitehurst may be in line to start next week against the Colts.


 
 
 
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