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2014 Draft Prep: Toby Gerhart will grind his way to success

Senior Fantasy Writer
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If you're a Toby Gerhart fan, the start of training camp and preseason action has been positive. So what if Gerhart missed practice time with a strained hip flexor. It's OK that he was sluggish in his first preseason action against the Bears.

Those negatives will only help lower his Fantasy value. And that's a good thing.

Gerhart is getting the first starting opportunity of his career with the Jaguars after spending the past four seasons playing behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. And we expect Gerhart to shine. The prediction here is Gerhart will grind his way to Fantasy success.

After the second week of preseason action, Gerhart's Average Draft Position was No. 41 overall, which is Round 4 in a 12-team league. He was the No. 18 running back off the board. We only hope he slips a little further because he's someone to covet on Draft Day.

Look, we have no idea how Gerhart is going to do in this role. We only have a small sample size of his work when he's had double digits in carries, which is nine times going back to his rookie year in 2010. He's done well with that workload, producing double digits in Fantasy points in six of those outings, so there's a start.

Coach Gus Bradley has said Gerhart is looking at 15-18 touches a game, but we're expecting a heavier workload. It's difficult to imagine Jordan Todman, Storm Johnson or Denard Robinson taking Gerhart off the field for significant stretches.

He showed he could be a capable receiver in limited action behind Peterson, averaging 19 catches a year with the Vikings, including three seasons of at least 20 grabs prior to 2013. And he should prove to be a tough rusher between the tackles.

My colleague, Larry Hartstein, wrote a blog in May comparing Gerhart's situation to Michael Turner when he left San Diego and LaDainian Tomlinson's shadow to be the starter in Atlanta in 2008. There are a lot of similarities.

Turner spent four seasons behind Tomlinson, who was the premier rusher of his era, just like Gerhart and Peterson. Both averaged fewer than 70 carries a season as backups. Both averaged more than 4.7 yards per carry in that role.

Jacksonville general manager Dave Caldwell worked in Atlanta's front office when the team signed Turner to be their workhorse. We expect he envisions Gerhart having a similar impact, especially leaning on him to cover up for what should be an inconsistent passing game led by either Chad Henne or rookie Blake Bortles.

You should keep in mind that Bradley is a Pete Carroll disciple and the Seahawks were second in rushing attempts in 2013 and first in 2012 with more than 31 carries a game on average each year. Marshawn Lynch has had more than 300 carries each of the past two seasons.

Last year, the Jaguars leaned on Maurice Jones-Drew for 234 carries, which was No. 14 in attempts, and he finished as the No. 20 Fantasy running back in standard leagues. He also had 43 catches. Gerhart should get more work and he'll finish with more production.

You're going to like Gerhart if you're looking for a No. 2 running back with upside in Round 4, and he should post consistent production. He's not going to post dominant stats like Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy, but his body of work will look good by the end of the season.

If the Jaguars do what's expected and lean on Gerhart, he'll finish as a top-20 Fantasy running back, with the chance to creep into the top 15. And the later he goes on Draft Day, the better off you'll be.

So prior to your draft, tell your league mates Gerhart is struggling. That he was hurt in training camp. That he won't get the job done as the starter.

Then, when he lands on your team, boast that you got a difference-maker. Gerhart is set up for a big year as the new lead running back for the Jaguars.

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Player News
Mychal Kendricks should be fine for Week 3
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1:22 am ET) Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks, who left the Monday night win over the Colts with a calf injury, said afterward it was only a spasm and that he'll be fine for Sunday's game against the Redskins, reports the Philadephia Inquirer. Kendricks made seven tackles in the 30-27 victory.

Colts DST comes apart in second half
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1:15 am ET) The Colts DST enjoyed a fine first half against the Eagles, allowing just a pair of field goals. But the unit fell apart in the second half of a 30-27 home loss.

Philly rolled up 458 total yards as running back Darren Sproles (152 receiving yards) shot through Indy's defense on screens and dumpoffs. The Colts finished with one turnover, cornerback Greg Toler's acrobatic interception, and no sacks.

The Colts DST has given up 61 points in two games against high-powered offenses. Indy should have more luck Week 3 when it visits the plodding Jaguars.


Adam Vinatieri nails two field goals
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1:09 am ET) Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri nailed 46- and 27-yard field goals in the Week 2 loss to the Eagles. He added three PATs for a nine-point night.

Vinatieri visits the Jaguars in Week 3.


Hakeem Nicks goes for negative yardage
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1:07 am ET) Colts receiver Hakeem Nicks had a chance for a first-quarter touchdown Monday night, but he could not come down with a fade from Andrew Luck. Nicks ended up catching one of his three targets for minus-4 yards. On the reception, Nicks caught the ball behind the line and was swarmed by Eagles defenders.

Nicks will try to bounce back Week 3 at Jacksonville.


Several Colts pitch in
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1:04 am ET) The Colts got contributions from a variety of players in the Week 2 loss to the Eagles. Among them, tight end Jack Doyle caught two passes for 12 yards, including a 2-yard score that was his first NFL touchdown. Rookie wideout Donte Moncrief had a 16-yard grab.

Reggie Wayne quiet on MNF
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:57 am ET) Colts wideout Reggie Wayne caught three passes for 28 yards in the Monday night loss to the Eagles. Wayne was targeted seven times, second-most on the team, but took a big step back from his nine-catch, 98-yard performance Week 1.

Wayne visits the Jaguars in Week 3.


T.Y. Hilton draws another 11 targets
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:54 am ET) Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton drew 11 targets for the second straight game Monday night. Hilton caught six passes for 65 yards against the Eagles but failed to generate the big plays he's known for; Andrew Luck overthrew Hilton on one bomb.

Through two games, Hilton has 10 catches for 106 yards and no scores. He visits Jacksonville in Week 3.


Trent Richardson enjoys best game as a Colt
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:50 am ET) Colts running back Trent Richardson failed to surpass 64 rushing yards in any game last season. He ran for 79 yards on 21 carries (3.8 ypc) in Monday's loss to the Eagles, adding a 16-yard catch on his lone target.

Richardson got off to a great start and had 57 rushing yards in the first half. He displayed better burst and was hard to bring down. Predictably, Richardson bogged down after halftime, even coughing up a third-quarter fumble.

Still, Richardson will look to build off this performance Week 3 at Jacksonville.


Colts' tight ends nearly invisible Monday night
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:45 am ET) Colts tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen were barely involved in the passing game Week 2. Fleener caught his only target for 13 yards, while Allen was targeted once without a catch.

They'll visit Jacksonville in Week 3.


Ahmad Bradshaw shines in Monday night spotlight
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:44 am ET) Colts running back Ahmad Bradshaw had three receiving touchdowns in his career entering Monday night's game against the Eagles. Bradshaw nearly matched that total, catching two scoring passes from Andrew Luck in the 30-27 loss.

Bradshaw scored on a 1-yard toss in the first quarter and a 7-yarder in the fourth quarter. He caught all five of his targets for 26 yards and rushed for 70 yards on 13 carries (5.4 ypc).

Bradshaw received 10 more touches Week 2 than he did Week 1. He's up to 10 catches this season and should maintain a prominent role going forward, assuming he avoids injury. He'll visit the Jaguars in Week 3.


 
 
 
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