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2014 Draft Prep: Busts, 3.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Sleepers 3.0 | Breakouts 3.0 | Draft Averages | Draft Prep Index

If you've been following along with the final version of our sleepers and breakouts, you know the format. We've been going over the two previous columns from each category, which were done in April and just before the start of training camp, and doing an All-Star list to give you the top 12 players for both groups.

For our Busts 3.0, we'll list the All-Star team to avoid, but I wanted to do something different for this column. I wanted to see which players are being overdrafted based on their Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com. Now, some of these players are still worth drafting and I don't consider all of them bust candidates. But their price tag has become too high, so you might want to pass on them on Draft Day since it will be difficult for them to justify their value.

All-Star busts

Nick Foles, QB, Eagles: He'll regress after last year's surprise season.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: Offensive line and lack of running a concern.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: His workload from 2013 will hurt him.
Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: Joique Bell will be Detroit's No. 1 RB this year.
Ben Tate, RB, Browns: Terrance West is better value based on ADP.
Chris Johnson, RB, Jets: His decline will continue even with a new team.
Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants: I'm not sold even with David Wilson out.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins: The move to Washington lowers his value.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: EJ Manuel won't enhance Watkins' skills.
Eric Decker, WR, Jets: His wallet improves, his stats decline in New York.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: Expect a touchdown decline to lower his value.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns: The poor QB play will hurt his production.

Players being overdrafted

Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos

ADP: No. 4 overall
I love Manning. He's the No. 1 quarterback on my draft board and I'm expecting another outstanding season. But he isn't worth drafting at No. 4 overall unless it's a two-quarterback league, in which case he should be No. 1. But in most standard and PPR formats he shouldn't be drafted until the end of the first round and I would rather see him fall to Round 2. The problem with drafting Manning early in the first round is you're expecting another season of record-breaking stats when he had 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns. That's unrealistic, including him being 88 Fantasy points better than the No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in Drew Brees and 170 Fantasy points better than the No. 3 quarterback in Andy Dalton. The Broncos lost Knowshon Moreno and Decker, beefed up the interior of their offensive line to be more physical, which should lead to more rushing, and have an improved defense. Now, Montee Ball and Emmanuel Sanders should do fine as new starters and we're still expecting an aerial attack from Manning. But the last time Manning set the single-season passing touchdown record in 2004 (49) he followed that up with a 21-touchdown decline. A similar regression could be coming, and while Manning will still be great, he might not live up to his value that early in Round 1.

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers

ADP: No. 19 overall
Bell's stock is falling since the second preseason game against Buffalo for differing reasons. The first problem is LeGarrette Blount. It looks like he'll be more of a factor than anyone anticipated. The initial thought was Blount would get 6-8 carries per game, which would hurt Bell but not cripple him. But after the Bills game it came out that Bell and Blount would likely split carries somewhat evenly, with Bell telling my colleague, Dave Richard, that Blount will work at the goal line. Then, Bell and Blount were both charged with marijuana possession, with Bell also being charged for a DUI. It doesn't seem like this will lead to a suspension this season, but it's another red flag for a running back with upside. I'd still draft Bell late in Round 2 or early in Round 3, but at this point I'd rather have Alfred Morris, Doug Martin and Zac Stacy, who all have a lower ADP. We hope Blount doesn't ruin Bell's chances this season, but he's trending downward after his promising rookie campaign.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans

ADP: No. 21 overall
It's difficult to find an upper-echelon running back who has had a worse training camp then Foster. Coming off back surgery last year, Foster said in an interview he contemplated retirement. If you couple that with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the first two preseason games, you realize he's definitely heading in the wrong direction. He could easily rebound before the season starts and play like an elite rusher again, even if it's for a small sample size during the year. But durability is now an issue and his motivation has come into question as well. The positives are the Texans don't have a proven backup to keep him off the field, even if Jonathan Grimes has run well with Foster out. But he made a name for himself with a different regime and new coach Bill O'Brien has no allegiance to Foster as a long-term investment. I'd let Foster fall to you in the early part of Round 3, and like Bell, I'd rather have Morris, Martin and Stacy just based on their upside compared to Foster's downside.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

ADP: No. 26 overall
I'm extremely excited about Stafford this year with the addition of new coordinator Joe Lombardi, receiver Golden Tate and tight end Eric Ebron. But I'm not excited enough about Stafford to draft him early in Round 3 unless he somehow fell in a two-quarterback league. By drafting Stafford there, you're basically expecting him to blow away the field after the top three quarterbacks in Manning, Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Stafford had a huge season in 2011 when he was No. 4 behind Rodgers, Brees and Tom Brady. He was then overdrafted in 2012 but finished as just the No. 11 quarterback in standard leagues. Last year, Stafford also had top-five potential, but he finished at No. 7. I don't have any doubt Stafford will be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback this year barring injury, and he should be drafted as the No. 4 quarterback in most formats. But the price tag at No. 26 overall is way too steep, especially when you get someone like Jay Cutler almost four rounds later. While Stafford should be better than Cutler, the production won't be dramatically different if both play to their capabilities, and you're better off waiting on Draft Day.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

ADP: No. 36 overall
It's apparent the current Bills coaching staff isn't fond of Spiller. They signed Anthony Dixon, traded for Bryce Brown and gave Fred Jackson an extension this offseason while Spiller has a player option after this year. We'll see if he wants to come back after a year where he could again lose playing time to Jackson, and the expectation is Spiller will lose passing-down work and goal-line chances. I still have hope for Spiller, but his third-round price tag is becoming too high. You're better off waiting until Round 4 and even then he could be too expensive. The positive for Spiller is Jackson's age. At 33, he's the oldest running back in the NFL, and prior to last season he played a combined 20 games the previous two years. If the Bills continue to work him as much as they did in 2013 with 253 total touches then he could break down, which would help Spiller. But I'd rather let Spiller fall to me than reach for him, so try to avoid him in Round 3 if you can.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

ADP: No. 39 overall
I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Brady this season after he was the No. 13 quarterback last year, which snapped a streak of three years in a row when he was in the top three. The key is Rob Gronkowski (knee) staying healthy, but Brady also needs Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson on the field for most of the year. The Patriots and Bill Belichick have no problem running the ball, even with Stevan Ridley's fumble woes, and relying on their defense, which is what we saw for a good portion of last season. Brady only had six games with 20 or more Fantasy points and he finished with 15 points or less in eight games. I still expect him to be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback, but he should not be drafted in Round 4 unless it's a two-quarterback league. And I don't like seeing Brady ahead of guys like Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck, who should have a higher ceiling this year if they play to their expectations.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers

ADP: No. 48 overall
I'm conflicted writing this because I consider Kaepernick a breakout candidate this year. But that's when I was expecting him to be drafted with a late-round pick and not in Round 4. He was originally the No. 5 quarterback coming off the board behind Manning, Brees, Rodgers and Stafford, but thankfully he's been passed by Luck. Kaepernick is in line for a big season. He got a huge contract extension, the 49ers added Steve Johnson and get Michael Crabtree back at 100 percent to go with Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. Plus, the defense could struggle, meaning more passing. The running game could take a step back with Frank Gore not getting any younger. All of this could lead to more throwing for Kaepernick. But he should be a value pick and not a reach, which is what he's become based on his ADP. There's a lot to like about Kaepernick, but make sure the value is worth it.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens

ADP: No. 54 overall
Rice will miss the first two games of the season with the suspension, so we'll see what the touch differential will be with Bernard Pierce when he returns. If Pierce does well in the first two games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh that will only increase his case to make this a tandem. Rice won't sit on the bench, but Pierce has already been a star of training camp and could shine in Gary Kubiak's system. When I look at this backfield, I'd much rather pass on Rice at his ADP and wait for Pierce at No. 114. The production might end up being closer than you think, but the value is clearly slanted in Pierce's favor. The Ravens wanted Rice and Pierce to split carries last year, and Rice had 214 compared to 152 for Pierce, so they were close to sharing then. It could be even closer this season, with Rice having the edge with his receiving ability (he had 58 receptions to 20 for Pierce). But I'll take a receiver where Rice is coming off the board and wait for Pierce in Round 10.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

ADP: No. 74 overall
Hilton has the chance to be special this season, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Indianapolis. Hilton's stats from last year (82 catches for 1,083 yards and five touchdowns) are propped up because he was really the lone option in the passing game. Reggie Wayne suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 and tight end Dwayne Allen was out with a hip injury. Both are back this season and Hakeem Nicks was added in the offseason. Hilton also did well to accumulate his production instead of being dominant on a weekly basis, as he finished with double digits in Fantasy points just five times, including once in Week 17. He could improve in his third year, but we expect Andrew Luck to continue to spread the ball around. That should limit Hilton's upside, and he's only worth drafting as a No. 3 receiver this year.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

ADP: No. 81 overall
Olsen is a good tight end. I'm just not sure if he can be great. He set a career high in catches last season with 73 and he's had two years in a row with 800-plus receiving yards. He's also scored six touchdowns or less in four consecutive seasons. Now, he could see a boost with the Panthers having a revamped receiving corps, and he's certainly not going to hurt your Fantasy team. But he's being drafted ahead of guys like Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz. All three of those tight ends have much more upside and those are the types of players you want to target on Draft Day. I'm OK settling for Olsen if I miss on the upper-echelon guys or the aforementioned trio, but I don't want him at No. 81 overall with a pick in Round 7 of a 12-team league. That's too expensive for someone with a limited ceiling.

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Player News
Jaguars MLB Paul Posluszny says he'll be 100 percent for OTAs
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9:16 am ET) Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, who tore his pectoral muscle and missed the last nine weeks of the season, told the team's website he's recovering well from surgery and will be 100 percent for the offseason program starting in mid-April.

"That shouldn't be an issue for us," he said.

Posluszny posted six straight years of 100-plus tackles until making 69 in seven games this season.


Tamba Hali says he wants to be back in Kansas City in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1:45 am ET) Outside linebacker Tamba Hali once again expressed an interest in returning to the only team he's ever played for in the Chiefs.

"At this stage of my career, it isn’t about money," Hali said. "The Kansas City Chiefs have taken care of me, financially. I have some good people in my corner that have positioned me to be able to live a lifestyle a lot of people won’t be able to live. So I’m not one of those guys who gets all bent out of shape over money. I love playing the game, I want to win a championship in Kansas City."

Hali totaled 59 tackles including six sacks and three forced fumbles in 16 games. It was his lowest sack total since 2008.

"If money is going to be a hindrance in doing that, we’ll find a way … we’ve got to get Justin (Houston) paid and get our guys, Dee Ford, ready to be playing at a higher level … but we’ve got to get Houston paid, I’m optimistic about that … that’s something we’ve got to get done."


Report: Seahawks' Richard Sherman finishes elbow treatment
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said Tuesday his elbow is improving daily and he's finished with treat, according to Ed Werder of ESPN. 

According to Werder, Sherman tore ligaments in his elbow in the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Sherman was seen grimacing in pain throughout the game after suffering the injury.

The Seahawks are currently 1-point underdogs for the Super Bowl, according to VegasInsider.com.


Seahawks GM: Russell Wilson's contract to present roster challenge
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) The Seahawks are preparing to re-sign quarterback Russell Wilson. With Wilson making under $1 million per year in his first three seasons, Seattle has been able to give other players contract extensions. Now, general manager John Schneider knows it will be tough on the team to get Wilson at the hefty price tag.

"It presents challenges, there is no question," Schneider said. "We haven’t sat down with his representatives. We are still going to be drafting young players and playing young players, so we might not be able to dip into free agency like you may want to here and there or compensate somebody else that you want to compensate that is already on your team, but just the fact that we’re going to continue to keep drafted players and playing young players should help us compensate for whatever level of compensation (for Wilson’s contract) is."

Wilson threw for 3,475 yards in 2014 with 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He also ran for 849 yards and six touchdowns.


Cardinals' Drew Stanton says he'll be healthy by April
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton is on the road to recovery. The 30-year-old quarterback is in the middle of a rehab program to be able to get back on the field this spring

"I’ll be full strength by time we start offseason program," Stanton said at Tuesday’s Super Bowl Media Day. "I don’t really need to do anything now so just kinda let my body rest to get away from the game a little bit, spend time with my family and get refreshed for next season."

Stanton said he would have needed one more week before trying to give it a go in the playoffs with the knee injury.

"I was going to need at least another week to have a shot," Stanton said. "That was my hope. So, I was trying to find ways to get ready to go, talking to the training staff and talking to guys (about) what I can be doing when we would get back from that flight from Carolina. It didn’t work out unfortunately, but it was a difficult situation the way everything ended. At the same time, I think that the building blocks are starting to fall into place for us." 


Bengals OC Hue Jackson still believes in QB Andy Dalton
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson missed quarterback Andy Dalton's Pro Bowl performance Sunday. Despite hearing about his 9 of 20 passing performance, Jackson said Tuesday to ESPN he still has faith in Dalton to get the job done.

"I'm not going to stop believing in him," Jackson said. "He's going to have to prove otherwise. I believe this guy has it in him. My job, my charge as I've said before is to have him do it on a consistent basis."

Jackson added he's seen the great Dalton and thinks it's something to build on.

"I see in the first three games of the season a guy that played with moxie and tenacity and aggressiveness, and who played extremely well down that 3-0 stretch," Jackson said.


Seahawks NT Brandon Mebane expected to be full go by April
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Seahawks starting nose tackle Brandon Mebane said the surgery to fix his torn hamstring went well, and he should be full go by April, reports the Seattle Times. Mebane's season was cut short after nine games. He finished with 20 tackles and a sack.

DT Kevin Williams could retire if Seahawks win
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Seahawks defensive tackle Kevin Williams did not rule out retiring if his team beats the Patriots in Super Bowl 49, reports the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Williams, 34, is a six-time Pro Bowler and five-time First-Team All-Pro.

He played in every game this season, recording 22 tackles, three sacks and two pass breakups.


Bills' Roman: EJ Manuel getting clean slate with new coaching staff
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman said Tuesday during his introductory press conference quarterback EJ Manuel will get a fresh start with the new coaching staff, per WGR 550. Manuel was benched in favor of veteran Kyle Orton in 2014. Orton has since retired.

"I'm not going to get into specifics. but I definitely think he's done some very good things and displayed some good traits," Roman said. "We just have to get his level of consistency a little bit greater. Really, he and everybody else, once we get thru this evaluation process, we're going to have a very clean slate, once we get going because what they might have been asked to do or done in the past is really not relevant to what we may or may not ask them to do. So to sit here and pontificate about this that and the other, is a little premature."

Manuel is 6-8 as a starter over two NFL seasons. The 2013 first-round pick has a career 58.6 completion rate. He has passed for 2,810 yards, 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 15 games (14 starts).


Bryan Stork not a lock to play in Super Bowl
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/27/2015) Patriots rookie center Bryan Stork said he's working with the training staff in hopes of playing in Super Bowl 49, reports ESPN.com. Stork, who nursing a knee injury, has been limited in practice.

"Nobody's working harder than Bryan to play," coach Bill Belichick said.

Stork started 11 regular-season games but missed the AFC title game after getting hurt in the divisional playoff win over Baltimore. Ryan Wendell replaced Stork and played well in the 45-7 victory over the Colts.


 
 
 
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