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2014 Draft Prep: Busts, 3.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Sleepers 3.0 | Breakouts 3.0 | Draft Averages | Draft Prep Index

If you've been following along with the final version of our sleepers and breakouts, you know the format. We've been going over the two previous columns from each category, which were done in April and just before the start of training camp, and doing an All-Star list to give you the top 12 players for both groups.

For our Busts 3.0, we'll list the All-Star team to avoid, but I wanted to do something different for this column. I wanted to see which players are being overdrafted based on their Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com. Now, some of these players are still worth drafting and I don't consider all of them bust candidates. But their price tag has become too high, so you might want to pass on them on Draft Day since it will be difficult for them to justify their value.

All-Star busts

Nick Foles, QB, Eagles: He'll regress after last year's surprise season.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: Offensive line and lack of running a concern.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: His workload from 2013 will hurt him.
Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: Joique Bell will be Detroit's No. 1 RB this year.
Ben Tate, RB, Browns: Terrance West is better value based on ADP.
Chris Johnson, RB, Jets: His decline will continue even with a new team.
Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants: I'm not sold even with David Wilson out.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins: The move to Washington lowers his value.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: EJ Manuel won't enhance Watkins' skills.
Eric Decker, WR, Jets: His wallet improves, his stats decline in New York.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: Expect a touchdown decline to lower his value.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns: The poor QB play will hurt his production.

Players being overdrafted

Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos

ADP: No. 4 overall
I love Manning. He's the No. 1 quarterback on my draft board and I'm expecting another outstanding season. But he isn't worth drafting at No. 4 overall unless it's a two-quarterback league, in which case he should be No. 1. But in most standard and PPR formats he shouldn't be drafted until the end of the first round and I would rather see him fall to Round 2. The problem with drafting Manning early in the first round is you're expecting another season of record-breaking stats when he had 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns. That's unrealistic, including him being 88 Fantasy points better than the No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in Drew Brees and 170 Fantasy points better than the No. 3 quarterback in Andy Dalton. The Broncos lost Knowshon Moreno and Decker, beefed up the interior of their offensive line to be more physical, which should lead to more rushing, and have an improved defense. Now, Montee Ball and Emmanuel Sanders should do fine as new starters and we're still expecting an aerial attack from Manning. But the last time Manning set the single-season passing touchdown record in 2004 (49) he followed that up with a 21-touchdown decline. A similar regression could be coming, and while Manning will still be great, he might not live up to his value that early in Round 1.

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers

ADP: No. 19 overall
Bell's stock is falling since the second preseason game against Buffalo for differing reasons. The first problem is LeGarrette Blount. It looks like he'll be more of a factor than anyone anticipated. The initial thought was Blount would get 6-8 carries per game, which would hurt Bell but not cripple him. But after the Bills game it came out that Bell and Blount would likely split carries somewhat evenly, with Bell telling my colleague, Dave Richard, that Blount will work at the goal line. Then, Bell and Blount were both charged with marijuana possession, with Bell also being charged for a DUI. It doesn't seem like this will lead to a suspension this season, but it's another red flag for a running back with upside. I'd still draft Bell late in Round 2 or early in Round 3, but at this point I'd rather have Alfred Morris, Doug Martin and Zac Stacy, who all have a lower ADP. We hope Blount doesn't ruin Bell's chances this season, but he's trending downward after his promising rookie campaign.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans

ADP: No. 21 overall
It's difficult to find an upper-echelon running back who has had a worse training camp then Foster. Coming off back surgery last year, Foster said in an interview he contemplated retirement. If you couple that with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the first two preseason games, you realize he's definitely heading in the wrong direction. He could easily rebound before the season starts and play like an elite rusher again, even if it's for a small sample size during the year. But durability is now an issue and his motivation has come into question as well. The positives are the Texans don't have a proven backup to keep him off the field, even if Jonathan Grimes has run well with Foster out. But he made a name for himself with a different regime and new coach Bill O'Brien has no allegiance to Foster as a long-term investment. I'd let Foster fall to you in the early part of Round 3, and like Bell, I'd rather have Morris, Martin and Stacy just based on their upside compared to Foster's downside.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

ADP: No. 26 overall
I'm extremely excited about Stafford this year with the addition of new coordinator Joe Lombardi, receiver Golden Tate and tight end Eric Ebron. But I'm not excited enough about Stafford to draft him early in Round 3 unless he somehow fell in a two-quarterback league. By drafting Stafford there, you're basically expecting him to blow away the field after the top three quarterbacks in Manning, Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Stafford had a huge season in 2011 when he was No. 4 behind Rodgers, Brees and Tom Brady. He was then overdrafted in 2012 but finished as just the No. 11 quarterback in standard leagues. Last year, Stafford also had top-five potential, but he finished at No. 7. I don't have any doubt Stafford will be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback this year barring injury, and he should be drafted as the No. 4 quarterback in most formats. But the price tag at No. 26 overall is way too steep, especially when you get someone like Jay Cutler almost four rounds later. While Stafford should be better than Cutler, the production won't be dramatically different if both play to their capabilities, and you're better off waiting on Draft Day.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

ADP: No. 36 overall
It's apparent the current Bills coaching staff isn't fond of Spiller. They signed Anthony Dixon, traded for Bryce Brown and gave Fred Jackson an extension this offseason while Spiller has a player option after this year. We'll see if he wants to come back after a year where he could again lose playing time to Jackson, and the expectation is Spiller will lose passing-down work and goal-line chances. I still have hope for Spiller, but his third-round price tag is becoming too high. You're better off waiting until Round 4 and even then he could be too expensive. The positive for Spiller is Jackson's age. At 33, he's the oldest running back in the NFL, and prior to last season he played a combined 20 games the previous two years. If the Bills continue to work him as much as they did in 2013 with 253 total touches then he could break down, which would help Spiller. But I'd rather let Spiller fall to me than reach for him, so try to avoid him in Round 3 if you can.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

ADP: No. 39 overall
I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Brady this season after he was the No. 13 quarterback last year, which snapped a streak of three years in a row when he was in the top three. The key is Rob Gronkowski (knee) staying healthy, but Brady also needs Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson on the field for most of the year. The Patriots and Bill Belichick have no problem running the ball, even with Stevan Ridley's fumble woes, and relying on their defense, which is what we saw for a good portion of last season. Brady only had six games with 20 or more Fantasy points and he finished with 15 points or less in eight games. I still expect him to be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback, but he should not be drafted in Round 4 unless it's a two-quarterback league. And I don't like seeing Brady ahead of guys like Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck, who should have a higher ceiling this year if they play to their expectations.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers

ADP: No. 48 overall
I'm conflicted writing this because I consider Kaepernick a breakout candidate this year. But that's when I was expecting him to be drafted with a late-round pick and not in Round 4. He was originally the No. 5 quarterback coming off the board behind Manning, Brees, Rodgers and Stafford, but thankfully he's been passed by Luck. Kaepernick is in line for a big season. He got a huge contract extension, the 49ers added Steve Johnson and get Michael Crabtree back at 100 percent to go with Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. Plus, the defense could struggle, meaning more passing. The running game could take a step back with Frank Gore not getting any younger. All of this could lead to more throwing for Kaepernick. But he should be a value pick and not a reach, which is what he's become based on his ADP. There's a lot to like about Kaepernick, but make sure the value is worth it.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens

ADP: No. 54 overall
Rice will miss the first two games of the season with the suspension, so we'll see what the touch differential will be with Bernard Pierce when he returns. If Pierce does well in the first two games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh that will only increase his case to make this a tandem. Rice won't sit on the bench, but Pierce has already been a star of training camp and could shine in Gary Kubiak's system. When I look at this backfield, I'd much rather pass on Rice at his ADP and wait for Pierce at No. 114. The production might end up being closer than you think, but the value is clearly slanted in Pierce's favor. The Ravens wanted Rice and Pierce to split carries last year, and Rice had 214 compared to 152 for Pierce, so they were close to sharing then. It could be even closer this season, with Rice having the edge with his receiving ability (he had 58 receptions to 20 for Pierce). But I'll take a receiver where Rice is coming off the board and wait for Pierce in Round 10.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

ADP: No. 74 overall
Hilton has the chance to be special this season, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Indianapolis. Hilton's stats from last year (82 catches for 1,083 yards and five touchdowns) are propped up because he was really the lone option in the passing game. Reggie Wayne suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 and tight end Dwayne Allen was out with a hip injury. Both are back this season and Hakeem Nicks was added in the offseason. Hilton also did well to accumulate his production instead of being dominant on a weekly basis, as he finished with double digits in Fantasy points just five times, including once in Week 17. He could improve in his third year, but we expect Andrew Luck to continue to spread the ball around. That should limit Hilton's upside, and he's only worth drafting as a No. 3 receiver this year.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

ADP: No. 81 overall
Olsen is a good tight end. I'm just not sure if he can be great. He set a career high in catches last season with 73 and he's had two years in a row with 800-plus receiving yards. He's also scored six touchdowns or less in four consecutive seasons. Now, he could see a boost with the Panthers having a revamped receiving corps, and he's certainly not going to hurt your Fantasy team. But he's being drafted ahead of guys like Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz. All three of those tight ends have much more upside and those are the types of players you want to target on Draft Day. I'm OK settling for Olsen if I miss on the upper-echelon guys or the aforementioned trio, but I don't want him at No. 81 overall with a pick in Round 7 of a 12-team league. That's too expensive for someone with a limited ceiling.

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Player News
Report: Torn pectoral sidelines Vikings CB Josh Robinson
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(6:56 pm ET) The Vikings secondary took a hit last month when cornerback Josh Robinson sustained a partially torn pectoral muscle, a league source has told ESPN.

The nickel back played in 690 snaps last season and was expected to battle several others for playing time. The injury could sideline him from training camp and land him on the PUP list.


Report: Packers' Andrew Quarless arrested on gun charges
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(2:07 pm ET) Packers tight end Andrew Quarless was arrested for firing a gun twice in Miami on Saturday, per the Miami New Times.

Quarless was involved in a fight at South Beach and fired the gun into the ground. 


Titans receivers can thrive in YAC with Marcus Mariota's accuracy
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) The Titans wide receiving corps could gain more yards after the catch this season because of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and his accurate throws, per ESPN.com.

The Titans were 24th in the league in yards after the catch last season, but with Mariota under center that can all change.

“If you have an accurate quarterback, it allows us to get more yards after that catch,” wide receiver Harry Douglas said. “And that’s one thing that makes a receiver dynamic -- first being able to catch the ball and then being able to do some things with it after you catch it. I feel like [to this point] Marcus has done everything he needs to do to get the ball to his receivers.”


Saints RB Khiry Robinson doesn't feel he's on outside looking in
by Ruben Palacios | Staff Writer
(7/3/2015) Saints running back Khiry Robinson might be the least known of his backfield counterparts, but he doesn't feel like the off man out, per ESPN.com.

Robinson knows the team is heavily invested in the likes of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, but he's still confident he can thrive in whatever role the Saints put him in.

“I’m the type of person, I’m gonna get what I get and do what I do with it. So whether it’s 20 carries or one carry, I’m gonna do the best of my ability every play,” Robinson said.

Robinson has shown flashes of success during his three years in the league. Injuries played a key role against him last season, which can ultimately put him as the third back on the depth chart. He will use the offseason to continue to improve and challenge his counterparts for playing time.

“I just gotta keep working,” Robinson. “It’s all love in the backfield. We all work together, try to help each other. So I think it’s a good thing we’ve got a full backfield again. So if anybody goes down, we’ve got another player right up there to do the same thing.”


Browns OL Michael Bowie itching to compete for starting spot
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Browns offensive lineman Michael Bowie is not required to report to training camp until the end of July. But never mind that - he's heading out after the last Independence Day firework explodes in the sky.

Bowie is itching to get started. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury after starting for Seattle on its Super Bowl title team in 2013. He is seeking to stay in tip-top shape in an attempt to land a starting spot on a Cleveland line that is the strength of the team.

"It's up to them to decide who is the best five," Bowie told the team website. "All I can do is take care of my business. Hopefully I can get a shot. That's what I'm working for."

Bowie participated fully in the offseason program, working mostly with the second team at right tackle. That will likely be the spot at which he competes for a starting job. Incumbent Mitchell Schwartz has not performed particularly well there and Mike Pettine has vowed there will be competition all over the field in camp.


Redskins OLB Ryan Kerrigan nearly recovered from knee surgery
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(7/3/2015) Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan appears to be on target to join the team for training camp after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery that prevented him from participating in earlier offseason activities.

Kerrigan, who registered a career-high 13 1/2 sacks a year ago, had the operation to alleviate pain in the area.

"My leg feels really good and I'm glad I got the surgery - not just for football but it makes my everyday life feel better so I'm glad I got it done," he told CSN Washington. "Now it's just a matter of getting stronger and getting into shape."

Kerrigan added that he's been running and now only needs to regain strength to insure his place at training camp.


Texans waive DT Brandon Ivory
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Texans waived rookie defensive tackle Brandon Ivory on Thursday, according to ESPN.com

Ivory was arrested on first degree burglary charges in Tuscaloosa, Ala. just one day ago. Ivory's agent Jeff Guerriero said Ivory is not guilty of the charge. 

"I spoke to Brandon he is not guilty and his name will be cleared of all charges," Guerriero said. 


Chargers TE Antonio Gates suspended 4 games for PED use
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the team announced. 

It's unknown at this time what drug Gates tested positive for. Gates, in a statement, said he was unaware that he took a banned substance

"In my 12 years in the NFL, I have taken tremendous pride in upholding the integrity of the NFL shield and all that it entails," Gates said. "I have taken extreme care of my body with a holistic approach and I have never knowingly ingested a substance that was banned by the NFL. In an effort to recover from this past season, I used supplements and holistic medicines, and unfortunately, I have now learned that those substances always present a risk because they may contain banned substances even if the ingredient list doesn’t reflect them.

"As an NFL veteran and team leader, I should have done my due diligence to ensure that what I was taking for recovery was within the NFL guidelines. I understand that I am responsible for what is in my body and I have always believed that ignorance is no excuse when it comes to these issues. I take full responsibility for my actions. I’d like to express my sincere apologies to the Chargers, my teammates, coaches, fans and the league who have always supported me and expected and gotten nothing but the highest level of integrity from me."

With Gates out for four games, the Chargers will turn to Ladarius Green as the team's top tight end, though it was expected for Green to continue getting more looks in the passing game. Green is entering the final season of his rookie contract. 

The Chargers expressed disappointment in Gates for his suspension but plans to stick with the longtime veteran through the suspension. 

"We are tremendously disappointed for our team and our fans as well as Antonio, but no more disappointed than Antonio is with himself," the Chargers stated. "Antonio is a member of the Chargers' family and we will continue to support him 100-percent. We have the utmost confidence he will stay in excellent shape for the season and be ready to go when he returns in Week 5. While it's unfortunate to not have him to start the season, we have complete confidence our tight end group will continue to play at a high level."  


Packers' Datone Jones out 1 game for substance-abuse violation
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) Packers defensive lineman Datone Jones will be suspended for one game for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy, according to NFL.com. 

Jones will miss Green Bay's season-opener against the Bears. In 2014, Jones totaled 22 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games played. 


Cowboys LB Rolando McClain suspended four games for 2015
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7/2/2015) The Cowboys announced that linebacker Rolando McClain has been suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season due to violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. 

McClain hasn't been able to participate much in offseason workouts due to going under offseason knee surgery. McClain will be eligible to practice in training camp and is expected to be healthy by then. 

"I apologize to my family, the Cowboys organization, my teammates and Cowboys fans for my mistake. I will not break the rules of my profession in the future, and I regret my error," McClain said in a statement, via CSN Bay Area. "I look forward to returning to the field on week 5, when I hope to help my team beat the Patriots.

In 2014, McClain, who had previously retired twice before being traded from the Ravens to the Cowboys, totaled 81 tackles and a sack in 13 games played.


 
 
 
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