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2014 Draft Prep: The TE landscape

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Editor's note: FanDuel.com is hosting a one-week long $100,000 Fantasy Football contest for just Week 1. It's only $10 to join and first prize is $10,000. Starts Sunday, September 7th at 1 p.m. ET. Enter now

Overviews: QBs | RBs | WRs | Draft Averages | Rankings | Draft Index

There's a reason Fantasy owners can't stay away from Rob Gronkowski on Draft Day. Despite all his injuries, he could be the biggest difference maker this year.

Gronkowski is coming off a torn ACL, and he hasn't played a full season since 2011 because of forearm, back and knee injuries. But when he does play he dominates, and Fantasy owners can thrive with a dominant tight end, especially with his value at No. 33 overall.

Jimmy Graham has become the class of the position because he's not only a force, but he stays on the field. Graham has played through ankle, wrist and foot injuries the past three years with one missed game over that time. And last year, he blew away the field as the No. 1 tight end with 217 Fantasy points in a standard league.

To put that in perspective, Graham was 56 points better than No. 2 tight end Vernon Davis, 77 points better than No. 3 tight end Julius Thomas and 114 points better than No. 10 tight end Martellus Bennett. If Graham was a wide receiver, he would have been No. 4 behind Demaryius Thomas (227 Fantasy points), Josh Gordon (226 points) and Calvin Johnson (219 points).

It will be interesting to see who the No. 1 tight end is this season. The betting money should be on Graham because of health. But the last time Graham and Gronkowski each played 16 games was in 2011, and Gronkowski was better -- by a lot.

Both were dominant that season as Graham was 64 Fantasy points better than No. 3 tight end Aaron Hernandez, who scored 123 points. But that season Gronkowski had 232 Fantasy points compared to 187 for Graham. Gronkowski was 121 Fantasy points better than No. 10 tight end Dustin Keller, and he would have been the No. 2 wide receiver that season behind Johnson (255 points).

I'm excited for Gronkowski this season, and he's expected to be ready for Week 1. If he plays 16 games, he'll definitely challenge Graham for the No. 1 spot, and his value in Round 3 of a 12-team league trumps Graham in Round 1.

The only other contender for the No. 1 spot coming into the season will be Julius Thomas, who was No. 3 last year and gets a boost with Eric Decker gone. But tight end is deep this season, as Davis, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz have plenty of upside depending on where you draft them.

We could also see some young guys like Ladarius Green, Eric Ebron, Dwayne Allen and Travis Kelce emerge. And don't discount veterans like Heath Miller, Bennett, Antonio Gates, Charles Clay and Delanie Walker.

It will be an interesting season at tight end to see if Graham and Gronkowski, assuming he's healthy, run away from the field. Or to see if the pack catches up to the top of the pyramid and makes this a balanced position.

Based on what we've seen in recent years, you want to lock up an elite tight end early because of their dominance. But don't fret if you miss out on Graham, Gronkowski or Thomas because the position is deep. We just hope it's not too top heavy.

We'll give you some tight ends to target based on their Average Draft Position on CBSSports.com. Some of my favorite value picks this year include Pitta, Reed, Rudolph and Ertz, and these are the tight ends I've been targeting if I miss on the top three.

Jimmy Graham, Saints

Average Draft Position: No. 11 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 1
Other players to consider at that spot: Aaron Rodgers, Demaryius Thomas, DeMarco Murray
I wouldn't pass on Graham if you have the chance to draft him toward the end of Round 1. If you're in that spot, Gronkowski won't make it back to you in Round 3 and might be a little risky in early Round 2, so if you're targeting one of those two tight ends then Graham is your guy. And you'll be happy he's on your team. Graham has been No. 1 or 2 in targets at his position each of the past three years, and we don't expect him to slow down this season even after his big contract extension.

Julius Thomas, Broncos

Average Draft Position: No. 31 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 3
Other players to consider at that spot: Alshon Jeffery, Andre Ellington, Randall Cobb
Thomas was No. 3 in Fantasy points last season behind Graham and Davis, and he thrived playing with Peyton Manning in his breakout campaign. He missed two games because of a knee injury last year and finished with 65 catches for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. If he played in the other two outings at his averages, he would have finished with 75 catches, 901 yards and 14 touchdowns and would have been better than Davis. We could see a boost for Thomas with Decker gone, so hopefully he continues to improve. He's worth drafting early in Round 3 in all formats.

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

Average Draft Position: No. 33 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 2
Other players to consider at that spot: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush, Tom Brady
Gronkowski has a lot to prove to Fantasy owners after playing in just 18 games the past two years. It's a gamble you have to take knowing his history, but when he plays, he's been awesome. He had 39 catches for 592 yards and four touchdowns last year in seven games, and if you project that over 16 games he would have finished with 89 catches for 1,353 yards and nine touchdowns, which would have put him No. 2 behind Graham. And that's what you're counting on, if not more, if Gronkowski is healthy all season. I love drafting him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3.

Vernon Davis, 49ers

Average Draft Position: No. 50 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 7
Other players to consider at that spot: Roddy White, Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick
Davis has proven to be touchdown dependent when it comes to his Fantasy value, and I won't draft him toward the end of Round 4 or beginning of Round 5. He was great last season when he had 52 catches for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns, but in the three seasons prior to 2013 he averaged six touchdowns a year. If that happens again with his similar production from last season, he would finish as the No. 7 tight end in standard leagues. So you can see Davis will still be good. He just might not be great, especially with a healthy Michael Crabtree and the addition of Steve Johnson.

Jason Witten, Cowboys

Average Draft Position: No. 59 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 6
Other players to consider at that spot: Chris Johnson, Michael Floyd, Percy Harvin
Witten is dependable, reliable and you always know where he'll be, which has typically been in the Top 12. This is Witten's 12th year in the NFL, and he's been a Top 12 Fantasy tight end for the past 10 seasons, including a Top 6 option each of the past four years. The stats don't blow you away -- he had 73 catches, 851 yards and eight touchdowns in 2013 -- but his consistency is hard to overlook. And Witten could benefit this season with an improved offensive line, which should allow for less blocking and more route-running. I like Witten as the No. 5 tight end behind Graham, Gronkowski, Thomas and Pitta.

Jordan Cameron, Browns

Average Draft Position: No. 69 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 10
Other players to consider at that spot: Tony Romo, Golden Tate, T.Y. Hilton
I'm curious how Cameron will do this season because while he will be the focal point of the passing game, teams will know that and show him extra attention. He'll also have a terrible quarterback situation with Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel, and he was inconsistent last year after a hot start. He finished the season with 80 catches for 917 yards and seven touchdowns, but he had just seven or more Fantasy points seven times. He had just three games with more than six Fantasy points in his final 11 outings. I don't mind Cameron as a starter, but I won't draft him in Round 6.

Dennis Pitta, Ravens

Average Draft Position: No. 78 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 6
Other players to consider at that spot: Jeremy Maclin, Jay Cutler, Marques Colston
Pitta has Top 5 potential this season now that he's over his hip injury and the addition of new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. During his time as the head coach in Houston, no one targeted tight ends more than Kubiak going back to 2008. And the Ravens and quarterback Joe Flacco missed Pitta last year as their red-zone production and third-down conversions declined. Pitta had a big year in 2012 when he had 61 catches, 669 yards and seven touchdowns to finish No. 7 in Fantasy points among tight ends, but he should be better this year.

Greg Olsen, Panthers

Average Draft Position: No. 87 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 10
Other players to consider at that spot: Mike Wallace, Robert Griffin III, Maurice Jones-Drew
Olsen appears to be a tight end you settle for instead of target, and I'd rather aim for upside with guys like Reed, Rudolph and Ertz. I'd be OK starting Olsen, but he's not going to excite you. Now, to be fair, Olsen has been a Top 8 tight end each of the past two seasons. And the Panthers should rely on him heavily this season with a revamped receiving corps. But instead of reaching for Olsen in Round 8, let him fall to you in Round 10 or later, especially if Reed, Rudolph and Ertz are still on the board.

Jordan Reed, Redskins

Average Draft Position: No. 88 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 9
Other players to consider at that spot: Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Fred Jackson
The Redskins look out of sorts in the preseason, and Reed is coming off a concussion-filled rookie year in 2013. There's cause for concern, and it's understandable if you want to look elsewhere for your starting tight end. But just keep in mind that Reed looked legit when healthy last season when he had 45 catches for 499 yards and three touchdowns in nine games. If you project his stats over 16 games, he would have finished as the No. 7 tight end, and we're expecting a better performance as a sophomore. He's a breakout candidate on the rise.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings

Average Draft Position: No. 92 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 9
Other players to consider at that spot: Lamar Miller, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks
Rudolph should benefit from the addition of offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who has worked with and helped develop some elite tight ends like Jay Novacek, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Cameron. We expect Rudolph to be next in line. He was a Top 10 Fantasy tight end in 2012 before being limited to eight games last year due to a broken foot, but this should be the best season of his career. He could easily emerge as a Top 5 tight end this year if he plays as expected in Turner's offense.

Zach Ertz, Eagles

Average Draft Position: No. 97 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 9
Other players to consider at that spot: Philip Rivers, Eric Decker, Reggie Wayne
The one roadblock for Ertz could be the presence of Brent Celek, who remains the better blocker and thus keeps him on the field. Not that Ertz and Celek are the same player, but Celek will steal a few red-zone opportunities. Ertz could help the Eagles replace the departed DeSean Jackson, and he played well as a rookie last season despite limited chances. He closed the year with 25 catches for 290 yards and five touchdowns in his final nine games, including the playoffs. If you project that over 16 games he would have been the No. 9 tight end in standard leagues, and we think he has more upside than that.

Martellus Bennett, Bears

Average Draft Position: No. 119 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 13
Other players to consider at that spot: Carlos Hyde, Carson Palmer, Anquan Boldin
Once you get to No. 12 on the tight end list it's anyone's guess who will emerge as the best option. Miller is my favorite, but Bennett, Gates, Green, Clay and likely three or four more will be in the mix. Bennett has been a serviceable tight end since getting his first starting chance with the Giants in 2012. He was No. 10 last year in his first season with the Bears, and he should continue to deliver solid production. He's not going to dominate on a weekly basis, but his overall stats at the end of the season won't hurt your Fantasy team.

Heath Miller, Steelers

Average Draft Position: No. 125 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 11
Other players to consider at that spot: Chiefs DST, Matt Prater, Phil Dawson
I usually have a quarterback and tight end I put in the category of break glass in case of emergency on Draft Day. That means once the guys I target are gone then I have a fall-back option I need to draft relatively soon with my next pick or two. The quarterback is Jay Cutler and the tight end is Miller. He was a standout option in 2012 with 71 catches for 816 yards and eight touchdowns, and he was the No. 4 tight end behind Graham, Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez. The Steelers have to replace a lot of production from Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery (113 catches, 1,346 and 16 touchdowns combined), and Miller will play a vital role, especially in the red zone. He has Top 10 ability now that he's two years removed from a torn ACL.

Antonio Gates, Chargers

Average Draft Position: No. 127 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 13
Other players to consider at that spot: Hakeem Nicks, Tavon Austin, Justin Hunter
The next two tight ends are tied together, which limits their upside. And Fantasy owners will have to decide between Gates and Green because this isn't a handcuff situation. Gates will likely have the better season, but Green has the higher ceiling. Gates, despite his struggles in 2013, still managed 77 catches for 872 yards and four touchdowns. Only three tight ends had more catches in Graham, Gonzalez and Cameron, and he was third in yards. The four touchdowns were troubling, but he did score at least seven a year from 2004-12. If he gets back to that level with the catches and yards remaining the same, he could be a steal on Draft Day.

Ladarius Green, Chargers

Average Draft Position: No. 131 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 14
Other players to consider at that spot: Khiry Robinson, Josh Gordon, Darren McFadden
I'm excited for Green's potential, but I hope Fantasy owners don't reach for him. Again, as long as Gates is in the picture, his upside is limited. We got a glimpse of what Green could do last year when he had at least eight Fantasy points in four of his final seven games. In the other three games, he went without a catch. He's not a bad tight end to pair with another starter, especially someone like Olsen, Miller or Bennett. He could end up as a star, or he could be someone you cut if he gets off to a slow start.

Eric Ebron, Lions

Average Draft Position: No. 136 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 15
Other players to consider at that spot: Bengals DST, Christine Michael, Alex Smith
Ebron had a lot of hype after the Lions made a hefty investment in him in the first round of the NFL Draft, but he's struggled in the preseason, lowering his upside. He'll still have his moments, especially playing in an explosive offense for a coordinator in Joe Lombardi, who comes from the Saints. But before we can make any comparisons with Ebron and Graham, we need to see what the rookie can do. He's someone to monitor in re-draft leagues, but he's not worth drafting in the majority of formats.

Charles Clay, Dolphins

Average Draft Position: No. 143 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 14
Other players to consider at that spot: Chris Ivory, Bears DST, Buccaneers DST
Clay had a breakout season in 2013 when he took over for an injured Dustin Keller (knee) and had 69 catches for 759 yards and six touchdowns, and he also added a rushing score. There are some who consider Clay a Top 12 tight end coming into this season, but we're expecting a regression with the Dolphins getting Brandon Gibson back from last year's knee injury and the addition of rookie Jarvis Landry. Knowshon Moreno will also steal some targets, and the Dolphins will move Mike Wallace around, which should also impact Clay. We expect Clay to be solid, but he's not going to replicate his performance as the No. 7 tight end like he did last year.

Delanie Walker, Titans

Average Draft Position: No. 149 overall
Where I would draft him: Round 14
Other players to consider at that spot: Doug Baldwin, Harry Douglas, Adam Vinatieri
Walker turned into a nice Fantasy option last year in his first season with the Titans. He had 60 catches for 571 yards and six touchdowns and finished with at least seven Fantasy points in six games. Walker isn't going to help you win a lot of Fantasy leagues, but he's a serviceable backup or bye-week replacement. He could easily replicate last year's production, and he makes for an interesting Fantasy option in 14- or 16-team leagues.

Best of the rest ...

Dwayne Allen, Colts: Allen could be a red-zone beast for Andrew Luck.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: Kansas City is dying for a weapon of his caliber.
Tyler Eifert, Bengals: He could emerge as the No. 2 target for the Bengals.

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Player News
Raiders RB Darren McFadden tallies 54 yards vs. Bills
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:22 pm ET) Raiders running back Darren McFadden rushed for 54 yards on just nine carries in his team's 26-24 win over the Bills in Week 16.

McFadden's 25-yard carry in the fourth quarter was a flashback to his days as one of the elite running backs in the league, as he was able to cut through the defense before being forced out of bounds at the one-yard line. The 25-yard pickup was his longest rush of the season. He did take a backseat to Latavius Murray in the win, touching the ball 10 times to 26 for the starter. McFadden will likely serve as a complementary back again when the Raiders face the Broncos in Week 17.


Adam Vinatieri gets no field-goal tries
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(8:20 pm ET) Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri did not get to try a field goal Week 16 at Dallas, hitting one PAT in the 42-7 loss. He'll visit Tennessee in Week 17.

Raiders RB Latavius Murray racks up 108 yards vs. Bills
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:18 pm ET) Raiders running back Latavius Murray rushed for 86 yards on 23 carries and added three receptions for 22 yards in his team's 26-24 win over the Bills in Week 16.

Murray and the Raiders running game started to take off once Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus exited the game with a knee injury and did not return. The yardage was his best since breaking out for 112 yards on four carries against the Chiefs in a Thursday night win. Murray has managed 470 yards on 85 touches going into a Week 17 matchup with the Broncos in Denver.


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by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(8:18 pm ET) Colts tight end Coby Fleener caught four of seven targets for 36 yards in the Week 16 loss at Dallas. He's been held under 60 receiving yards in three straight games after breaking out for 127 yards and two touchdowns Week 13.

Fleener visits the Titans in Week 17.


Teddy Bridgewater turns it around in second half
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(8:17 pm ET) Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater got off to a very slow start in his NFL career, tossing five interceptions to just one touchdown in his first four games. However, continues to turn things around, as he put together another solid performance in Week 16 against the Dolphins.

Bridgewater tossed a pair of touchdowns to just one interception on 26 attempts Sunday, his fourth game with more scores than turnovers in the last five. He also passed for 259 yards, bringing his three-game total to 883 yards, by far the best stretch of his career.

Bridgewater now has 13 touchdowns to 11 interceptions on the season, however he has been much improved of late. Over the last eight games, heading into the season finale, Bridgewater has 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, while completing 65.5 percent of his passes and racking up 237.3 yards per game.

He hasn't been a Fantasy star, but he has certainly shown flashes of that kind of ability. He has at least 17 Fantasy points in each of his last five games, and could finish the season with a flourish in Week 17 against the Bears. Bridgewater looks like a keeper, and could be in the discussion as a starting Fantasy option for his second season in the league.  


Jets DST surprises against Patriots
by Scott White | Senior Fantasy Writer
(8:16 pm ET) Facing one of the league's most prolific offenses, the Jets defense continued its good run Week 16 against the Patriots, allowing 17 points on 231 yards. It was the third time in four games that the Jets allowed less than 20 points.

They also equaled a season-high with four sacks. They had just one takeaway, an interception by Marcus Williams, but still, the performance amounted to 14 Fantasy points for the Jets DST in standard CBSSports.com leagues, just its fifth game with double-digit points this season.

Of course, you probably shouldn't expect lightning to strike twice Week 17 at Miami. Even if the Jets have limited their opponents' scoring in recent weeks, it hasn't amount to much Fantasy production for their DST.


Hakeem Nicks leads the way in T.Y. Hilton's absence
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(8:16 pm ET) With the Colts missing top wideout T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) on Sunday at Dallas, Hakeem Nicks drew a game-high 11 targets and set season highs with nine catches for 72 yards. It was Nicks' first game with more than 50 receiving yards all season.

Rookie wideout Donte Moncrief got the start in place of Hilton but ended up with two catches for 5 yards.

Veteran Reggie Wayne hauled in three of five targets for 23 yards. Wayne dropped one pass and recorded his fifth straight game with 31 or fewer receiving yards.

Hilton is expected to be available Week 17 when the Colts visit the Titans.


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by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:14 pm ET) Raiders quarterback Derek Carr completed just 17 of his 34 pass attempts for 214 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in his team's 26-24 win over the Bills in Week 16.

Carr opened the second quarter by finding a wide-open James Jones in the back of the end zone for a three-yard score. He hit his fullback on a one-yard flare route with less than three minutes left in the game to extend his team's lead to nine points, an insurance touchdown that came in handy when the Bills were able to answer with a score a few minutes later.

Carr opened the season with 10 straight losses but has won three of his last five games, with all three of his wins coming at home. He'll hit the road for a Week 17 matchup with the Broncos in Denver.


Bills K Dan Carpenter scores six points vs. Raiders
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:09 pm ET) Bills kicker Dan Carpenter made his only field-goal attempt and added three extra points in his team's 26-24 loss to the Raiders in Week 16.

Carpenter closed out the first half by nailing a 54-yard kick, giving him six makes in eight attempts of at least 50 yards this season. He's made 33 of his 37 field-goal attempts on the season. The kicker has a trip to New England on tap for Week 17.


Bills' Robert Woods, Scott Chandler catch TDs in Week 16
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(8:06 pm ET) Bills wide receiver Robert Woods and tight end Scott Chandler both caught touchdowns in Buffalo's 26-24 loss in Oakland in Week 16.

Chandler caught a pass over the middle at about the 10-yard line early in the fourht quarter and outmuscled a defender into the end zone for a 29-yard touchdown that cut his team's deficit to two points. Unfortunately, the Bills were again down by two scores when Robert Woods hauled in a 30-yard touchdown with just 69 seconds left on the game clock, and the team was unable to recover the successive onside kick.

Woods finished the game with seven receptions on nine targets for 52 yards while Chandler managed four receptions on six targets for 37 yards. Both players will square off with the Patriots in Week 17.


 
 
 
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