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2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 4.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Editor's note: FanDuel.com is hosting a one-week long $100,000 Fantasy Football contest for just Week 1. It's only $10 to join and first prize is $10,000. Starts Sunday, September 7th at 1 p.m. ET. Enter now

Overviews: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Draft Averages | Rankings | Draft Index

Fantasy drafts are wrapping up this weekend and into the first few days of next week as we rapidly approach the start of the regular season. It's been interesting to see how the Average Draft Position has changed over the past month.

We started with Arian Foster as a first-round pick and Doug Martin fading, but those two running backs are now going in different directions. Foster is being drafted in Round 3, and Martin has moved back into Round 2.

Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick were being drafted ahead of Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan, but thankfully Fantasy owners have corrected that mistake. I still like Tony Romo better than both, but we'll let the season play out to see if I'm right.

Emmanuel Sanders is on a rocket ship up the ADP ranks to the fifth round with Wes Welker suffering another concussion, and Welker is free-falling from Round 5 to likely Round 7 after Labor Day. He could end up as a tremendous value pick if he's able to play 10-plus games, which would impact those owners who reached for Sanders.

Eric Ebron was considered a Top 12 tight end when training camp started, but he's been passed by the old faithful of Martellus Bennett, Heath Miller and Antonio Gates. Of that group, Miller is my favorite one, and he's a steal in Round 11.

We'll get to other examples at each position below, and for those of you drafting between now and Thursday when Week 1 kicks off, use the ADP as a guide for your leagues. You can also check back on the ADP after this weekend to see if any of your players have moved up or down since your Draft Day.

The first round looks like this ...

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
5. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
9. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
10. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
11. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

The one difference from last week has been Thomas moving ahead of Graham to No. 8. I don't quite understand that. While Thomas should be awesome, he's in a tier with other receivers of his caliber in Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. Graham, if Rob Gronkowski (knee) doesn't return at 100 percent, could be the biggest difference maker at any position.

I also don't understand the quarterbacks going so early in Round 1. I hope to hear from Manning owners if he doesn't finish as the top quarterback and how they would feel drafting him at No. 4 overall. Just remember, the last time he set the passing touchdown record with 49 in 2004 he suffered a 21-touchdown decline the following season. Regression is inevitable.

If you remove the quarterbacks from Round 1, the next three players in would be Montee Ball, Dez Bryant and Giovani Bernard. I'm totally on board with Ball and Bryant in Round 1, and I actually would go with Julio Jones at No. 12 overall. Bernard is still a standout talent, but he should be drafted toward the middle of Round 2, especially with rookie Jeremy Hill having a strong preseason.

Quarterback breakdown

Nick Foles, overrated: I like Foles as a Top 12 quarterback, but I don't expect him to finish in the Top 10. His ADP is No. 58 overall, and he's being drafted as the No. 8 quarterback ahead of guys like Kaepernick, Romo and Jay Cutler, which is a mistake.

Foles will definitely have his moments this season, but a tougher schedule along with DeSean Jackson being gone make him too risky at that ADP. Someone else can him there, and I'll draft Cutler at No. 82 and get similar production.

Tony Romo, underrated: You know the drill by now. Romo has a terrible defense, a pass-happy play-caller in Scott Linehan and a great receiving corps. He should be in line for an amazing season, and his ADP is No. 70 overall. He's being drafted as the No. 10 quarterback.

Not only do I like Romo better than Foles, but I would also take him ahead of Tom Brady and Kaepernick. I love letting Romo land in my lap in Round 6 or later.

Russell Wilson on the rise: I wish I could find a way to rank Wilson in my Top 12, but he's No. 14 just because I like a few guys better. But he's had a solid preseason, and he's been the No. 9 Fantasy quarterback each of the past two seasons.

If you can pair Wilson with another quarterback in his tier like Robert Griffin III, Foles, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton or Philip Rivers then you should be in great shape. Wilson has been consistent at home and indoors, so use him in those spots.

Robert Griffin III on the decline: Kaepernick and Griffin have battled for having the worst preseason among the Top 12 quarterbacks, but Kaepernick still remains a Top 10 option. Griffin, meanwhile, has dropped to No. 93 overall as the No. 13 quarterback. Even Newton is ahead of him with all his woes.

I like that Griffin has fallen to this spot because it means I can draft him at a bargain. I'm still expecting a rebound year with his knee at 100 percent and the addition of coach Jay Gruden and Jackson.

Running back breakdown

Marshawn Lynch, overrated: I'm glad Lynch has fallen to Round 2 at No. 17 overall, and I would draft him toward the end of the second round. But I don't like who Lynch is being drafted ahead of based on his expected decline this season.

He's currently going ahead of Martin, Le'Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Arian Foster and Zac Stacy. I would rather have Martin, Morris and Stacy based on what could happen to Lynch coming off a 400-touch campaign.

Joique Bell, underrated: Bell is being drafted at No. 53 overall, which is Round 5 in a 12-team league. He's going 13 spots after Reggie Bush, and I'd rather have Bell in a standard league.

Bush is still the better option in PPR formats, but Bell could be the workhorse running back for the Lions this year. He's a Top 20 Fantasy option coming into the season at his position. I also like him better than C.J. Spiller, Bishop Sankey and Ryan Matthews, who all have a higher ADP.

Knowshon Moreno on the rise: All it took was Moreno getting on the field to raise his ADP to No. 100 overall. He's now just four spots behind Lamar Miller, and it's a tossup who will be the better Miami running back this year.

Miller is the safer option based on Moreno having knee surgery this offseason, but Moreno has an edge in pass protection, which could keep him on the field. I'll still take Miller on Draft Day, but Moreno has closed the gap after playing in the third preseason game against the Cowboys.

Bishop Sankey on the decline: Sankey was expected to be the No. 1 rookie running back, but he's played behind Shonn Greene all preseason and has rarely worked with the starters in Tennessee. Sankey should still have his moments this season, but his ADP has dropped to No. 50 overall.

Look for Sankey to fall farther than Round 5, and I consider him a great value pick in Round 6 or later. Consider him this year's Stacy as a rookie who might not play much in the first few weeks but could shine once Greene struggles or gets hurt.

Wide receiver breakdown

Larry Fitzgerald, overrated: Fitzgerald had a solid season in 2013 with 82 catches for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he finished as just the No. 16 receiver in standard leagues. But his ADP is No. 38 overall, and he's the No. 11 receiver off the board.

I'm OK with Fitzgerald as my No. 2 receiver, but I'd rather have Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson and Cordarrelle Patterson, who are all going after Fitzgerald. There's more upside with those other guys compared to Fitzgerald, who could lose targets to the emerging Michael Floyd.

Eric Decker, underrated: I had Decker listed as a bust in March when I expected Fantasy owners to draft him as a must-start receiver. But his ADP is No. 98 overall, which suggests everyone is aware the move from the Broncos to the Jets will hamper his production.

That said, he won't be this bad. Geno Smith has played OK this preseason, and Decker will be the No. 1 target in the passing attack for a team likely trailing in a lot of games. He's a better flier in Round 9 then guys going ahead of him like T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace and Brandin Cooks.

Marques Colston on the rise: Colston is also being drafted ahead of Decker, but I'm fine with that. When healthy, Colston could be solid, and his ADP is No. 79 overall.

He's an excellent No. 3 receiver with the chance to be a Top 20 option if he can play 16 games at 100 percent, which is a stretch. Still, with Darren Sproles and Lance Moore gone, Brees will rely on Graham and Colston even more, especially if Kenny Stills (quad) is out and Cooks struggles as a rookie.

Sammy Watkins on the decline: Injured ribs and bad quarterback play have caused Fantasy owners to run away from Watkins. His ADP is No. 99 overall.

Once he gets healthy, Watkins could have some productive games, but EJ Manuel is going to have to dramatically improve for Watkins to be considered a Fantasy starter. I'd only want him as a No. 4 receiver to stash for later in the year in re-draft leagues.

Tight end breakdown

Vernon Davis, overrated: Davis has remained the No. 4 tight end on ADP throughout the preseason, and his ADP is No. 53 overall. I don't want Davis in Round 5, and I might even pass on him in Round 6.

If his touchdowns decline this season he could finish closer to the No. 10 Fantasy tight end then No. 2 like he did last year. I'd rather pass on Davis for Dennis Pitta or Jason Witten, or I could get similar value from the group of Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz, who are being drafted in Round 8.

Dennis Pitta, underrated: Pitta is the No. 7 tight end off the board, and I expect him to have a tremendous year. He's my favorite tight end this season in Gary Kubiak's offense.

When Kubiak was the coach of the Texans, he featured his tight ends, and Pitta is the apple of Joe Flacco's eye. I consider him a Top 5 tight end in 2014, and I love his ADP at No. 76 overall.

Heath Miller on the rise: I'm glad Fantasy owners are buying into Miller, and he has moved up to No. 122 overall. He's the No. 13 tight end being drafted, and I think he has Top 10 potential.

In 2012, Miller was a Top 5 tight end before suffering a torn ACL, and he should return to playing at a high level with the Steelers having to replace Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery.

Greg Olsen on the decline: Olsen has fallen behind Reed, but he remains ahead of Rudolph and Ertz heading into this weekend. I expect that to change.

The Panthers have looked out of sorts in the preseason, and Fantasy owners are settling for Olsen instead of targeting him. I get it, but Olsen can fall to a spot where he becomes good value, with his ADP at No. 89 overall. If he slips from Round 8 to Round 9 he could end up being a great pick as one of the last Top-10 caliber tight ends this year.

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Player News
Eagles coach Chip Kelly: Tim Tebow not just a camp arm
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:15 pm ET) Eagles coach Chip Kelly thinks Tim Tebow could eventually develop into a quarterback and isn't just a camp arm, as Mark Sanchez said last month, according to NFL.com.

Tebow was signed in April as the fourth quarterback on the roster after the team traded for Sam Bradford and re-signed Sanchez.

"No, I think everybody here that we bring to our organization is here to compete for a job," Kelly said. "That's what Timmy is going to do. He's an unbelievable competitor. ... If we were just going to have guys throw drills, we'd take (Mike) Mayock in the offseason and bring him down here and let him throw to them."

Tebow hasn't played in the league since 2012.


Cowboys RB Darren McFadden maybe used as kick returner in 2015
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(9:11 pm ET) Cowboys running back Darren McFadden could see an expanded role next season, as a kick or punt returner, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Wide receiver Dwayne Harris left during the offseason for the Giants, leaving a vacant spot in the return game.

"We have some guys we feel who can go return right now both punt returners and kickoff returners," coach Jason Garrett said. "And hopefully we'll get a chance to bring some guys in college free agent type guys we targeted as well. We like the guys we have and we feel like we can go play right now with them and also create some competition with some younger guys."

McFadden was a kick returner for the Raiders in 2014 where he had three returns for 59 yards.

"He certainly could," Garrett said. "He's done it in his past."


Jersey No. 11 holds significance for Texans WR Jaelen Strong
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(7:24 pm ET) Texans wide receiver Jaelen Strong was pegged as a potential first-round pick entering the 2015 NFL draft. 

However, he had to wait quite a while in the green room to hear his name called. In the third round, the Texans took Strong, a productive wideout at Arizona State. Strong, surprised at the fall in the draft, picked a jersey number to remind himself of what happened to him. 

Strong was the 11th receiver selected this past weekend. Therefore, 11 is the jersey number Strong will wear this season, to remind himself that 10 other receivers were selected ahead of him. 

"Number 11 to remind me that 10 receivers were taken before me in the Draft," Strong wrote on his Instagram page. "So much hunger in my heart. Thanks Houston!"


Jaguars agree to terms with 9 UDFAs, including Nick Marshall
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(5:16 pm ET) The Jaguars announced they will sign nine rookie undrafted free agents, including former Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall.

Marshall will move to cornerback as a professional football player.

As Auburn's starting quarterback in 2014, he threw for 2,532 yards and 20 touchdowns. In 2013, Marshall led the Tigers to the BCS National Championship, where Auburn lost to Florida State. 

Marshall has some experience with the Jaguars. At the Senior Bowl, where he played as a corner, he was coached by the Jaguars' coaching staff. 

The Jaguars will also bring in Miami linebacker Thurston Armbrister , Syracuse defensive tackle Eric Crume , Auburn running back Corey Grant , Oregon State tight end Connor Hamlett , Minnesota-Mankato guard Chris Reed, Maryland linebacker Matt Robinson , Pittsburgh linebacker Todd Thomas and Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters


Lions unsure if Travis Swanson will start at center
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3:26 pm ET) When the Lions drafted Travis Swanson a year ago, the idea was for him to emerge as a starting center for the franchise by 2015. 

There's now some doubt, at least that's what the Lions themselves are saying after acquiring veteran Manny Ramirez in a trade on Thursday during the NFL draft. 

"I don't know," Lions offensive line coach Jeremiah Washburn said, via the Detroit Free Press. "And I'm not trying to be evasive, I just don't know. What is it, May 2, 3rd? The depth kind of develops itself, which is a nice thing. Going through OTAs, mini-camp, training camp, it always takes care of itself."

Swanson is still the favorite to start at center, though it does appear the Lions want to put him in a competitive situation. 


Panthers not concerned with Devin Funchess' 40 time
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3:06 pm ET) Panthers rookie receiver Devin Funchess didn't impress scouts too much when he ran a 4.7 40-yard dash time at the NFL scouting combine this past February. 

But that didn't stop the Panthers from selecting him the second round on Friday during the NFL draft. The Panthers were impressed enough in Funchess, based on his big-play ability and size at 6-5, 230 pounds, to add him to their roster. 

"People are going to talk about his 40 time in Indy, but the kid plays fast, and he ran fast at the pro day at Michigan (4.48 40-yard dash)," Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman said, via the team's official website. "Like with Kelvin (Benjmin) last year, you can't coach size. He plays fast. He's a smooth and fluid big man. We really like that about him, and he's a very smart kid."


Browns GM: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu can be a starting cornerback
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(1:34 pm ET) Former Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was considered a first-round prospect before tearing an ACL this past December, which sidelined him for the first-ever College Football Playoff. 

Due to the uncertainty of his injury, Ekpre-Olomu experienced a substantial fall from potential first-rounded to the seventh round. The Browns ended up grabbing Ekpre-Olomu with the 241st overall pick.

Assuming Ekpre-Olomu can rehab his knee back into shape, Browns general manager Ray Farmer said Ekpre-Olomu has a great future in the NFL. 

"We felt this kid can be a starter if he’s 100 percent," Farmer said, via ESPN.com


Matt Jones' arrival won't change Redskins RB Alfred Morris' role
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(1:00 pm ET) It doesn't hurt to have more than one quality running back to tote the ball in the NFL. But when a solid runner is taken in the first few rounds of the draft, it can be an ominous sign for a back used to being the primary ball carrier. 

That's not the case with Redskins running back Alfred Morris. Though the Redskins drafted Florida's Matt Jones in the third round, coach Jay Gruden said there are no plans to change Morris' role in the offense. 

"Alfred won't be affected," Gruden said, via ESPN.com. "Alfred's still the running back here. He's had three great seasons and that won't change. But to add another guy that can come in here and pound the rock a little bit doesn't hurt anything. It'll help Alfred in that regard, taking some carries off him. For the most part Alfred will be getting the bulk of the carries and Matt will get some too, obviously."

In a tough season for everyone on the Redskins, Morris ran got 1,074 yards and eight touchdowns. Jones provides some insurance as a big-bodied 6-2, 226-pound back that could actually help Morris this season. 

"He's a little bit different than what we've had around here," Gruden said. 


Falcons waive tight end Kyle Miller
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:53 pm ET) The Falcons announced on Sunday that they have waived tight end Kyle Miller

Miller was with the Falcons' practice squad in 2014. He was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Jaguars in 2012. 


Packers QB Brett Hundley's fall in draft 'blessing in disguise'
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(12:39 pm ET) Former UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley admitted disappointment after falling to third day of the NFL draft. 

When Hundley declared for the draft he was considered a first- or second-round pick. But as the pre-draft process continued, Hundley's game was scrutinized to the point where he fell down lots of draft boards. 

All of a sudden, Hundley found himself still available in the fifth round. With the 147th overall pick, the Packers selected Hundley, even though starter Aaron Rodgers is poised to remain as one of the greats in this league for many years to come. 

For Hundley, he's looking at the opportunity as a way to prove his critics wrong. 

"It's a blessing in disguise," Hundley said via the Green Bay Post-Gazette, "and you know I have a chip on my shoulder, and I'm coming in to work, and that's what I've come down to. I'm just coming in, I've got my opportunity. That's the way I look at it. It's a blessing in disguise.

"You always have expectations of going No. 1 or high in the draft, but everything happens for a reason, and that's how I look at it. If I'm supposed to be here, this is where I'm supposed to be, and I'm going to make the most of it."


 
 
 
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