Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Playoff Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Daily Fantasy
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2014 Draft Prep: ADP review, 4.0

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Editor's note: FanDuel.com is hosting a one-week long $100,000 Fantasy Football contest for just Week 1. It's only $10 to join and first prize is $10,000. Starts Sunday, September 7th at 1 p.m. ET. Enter now

Overviews: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Draft Averages | Rankings | Draft Index

Fantasy drafts are wrapping up this weekend and into the first few days of next week as we rapidly approach the start of the regular season. It's been interesting to see how the Average Draft Position has changed over the past month.

We started with Arian Foster as a first-round pick and Doug Martin fading, but those two running backs are now going in different directions. Foster is being drafted in Round 3, and Martin has moved back into Round 2.

Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick were being drafted ahead of Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan, but thankfully Fantasy owners have corrected that mistake. I still like Tony Romo better than both, but we'll let the season play out to see if I'm right.

Emmanuel Sanders is on a rocket ship up the ADP ranks to the fifth round with Wes Welker suffering another concussion, and Welker is free-falling from Round 5 to likely Round 7 after Labor Day. He could end up as a tremendous value pick if he's able to play 10-plus games, which would impact those owners who reached for Sanders.

Eric Ebron was considered a Top 12 tight end when training camp started, but he's been passed by the old faithful of Martellus Bennett, Heath Miller and Antonio Gates. Of that group, Miller is my favorite one, and he's a steal in Round 11.

We'll get to other examples at each position below, and for those of you drafting between now and Thursday when Week 1 kicks off, use the ADP as a guide for your leagues. You can also check back on the ADP after this weekend to see if any of your players have moved up or down since your Draft Day.

The first round looks like this ...

1. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
4. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
5. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
7. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
8. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
9. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
10. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
11. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
12. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

The one difference from last week has been Thomas moving ahead of Graham to No. 8. I don't quite understand that. While Thomas should be awesome, he's in a tier with other receivers of his caliber in Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. Graham, if Rob Gronkowski (knee) doesn't return at 100 percent, could be the biggest difference maker at any position.

I also don't understand the quarterbacks going so early in Round 1. I hope to hear from Manning owners if he doesn't finish as the top quarterback and how they would feel drafting him at No. 4 overall. Just remember, the last time he set the passing touchdown record with 49 in 2004 he suffered a 21-touchdown decline the following season. Regression is inevitable.

If you remove the quarterbacks from Round 1, the next three players in would be Montee Ball, Dez Bryant and Giovani Bernard. I'm totally on board with Ball and Bryant in Round 1, and I actually would go with Julio Jones at No. 12 overall. Bernard is still a standout talent, but he should be drafted toward the middle of Round 2, especially with rookie Jeremy Hill having a strong preseason.

Quarterback breakdown

Nick Foles, overrated: I like Foles as a Top 12 quarterback, but I don't expect him to finish in the Top 10. His ADP is No. 58 overall, and he's being drafted as the No. 8 quarterback ahead of guys like Kaepernick, Romo and Jay Cutler, which is a mistake.

Foles will definitely have his moments this season, but a tougher schedule along with DeSean Jackson being gone make him too risky at that ADP. Someone else can him there, and I'll draft Cutler at No. 82 and get similar production.

Tony Romo, underrated: You know the drill by now. Romo has a terrible defense, a pass-happy play-caller in Scott Linehan and a great receiving corps. He should be in line for an amazing season, and his ADP is No. 70 overall. He's being drafted as the No. 10 quarterback.

Not only do I like Romo better than Foles, but I would also take him ahead of Tom Brady and Kaepernick. I love letting Romo land in my lap in Round 6 or later.

Russell Wilson on the rise: I wish I could find a way to rank Wilson in my Top 12, but he's No. 14 just because I like a few guys better. But he's had a solid preseason, and he's been the No. 9 Fantasy quarterback each of the past two seasons.

If you can pair Wilson with another quarterback in his tier like Robert Griffin III, Foles, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton or Philip Rivers then you should be in great shape. Wilson has been consistent at home and indoors, so use him in those spots.

Robert Griffin III on the decline: Kaepernick and Griffin have battled for having the worst preseason among the Top 12 quarterbacks, but Kaepernick still remains a Top 10 option. Griffin, meanwhile, has dropped to No. 93 overall as the No. 13 quarterback. Even Newton is ahead of him with all his woes.

I like that Griffin has fallen to this spot because it means I can draft him at a bargain. I'm still expecting a rebound year with his knee at 100 percent and the addition of coach Jay Gruden and Jackson.

Running back breakdown

Marshawn Lynch, overrated: I'm glad Lynch has fallen to Round 2 at No. 17 overall, and I would draft him toward the end of the second round. But I don't like who Lynch is being drafted ahead of based on his expected decline this season.

He's currently going ahead of Martin, Le'Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Arian Foster and Zac Stacy. I would rather have Martin, Morris and Stacy based on what could happen to Lynch coming off a 400-touch campaign.

Joique Bell, underrated: Bell is being drafted at No. 53 overall, which is Round 5 in a 12-team league. He's going 13 spots after Reggie Bush, and I'd rather have Bell in a standard league.

Bush is still the better option in PPR formats, but Bell could be the workhorse running back for the Lions this year. He's a Top 20 Fantasy option coming into the season at his position. I also like him better than C.J. Spiller, Bishop Sankey and Ryan Matthews, who all have a higher ADP.

Knowshon Moreno on the rise: All it took was Moreno getting on the field to raise his ADP to No. 100 overall. He's now just four spots behind Lamar Miller, and it's a tossup who will be the better Miami running back this year.

Miller is the safer option based on Moreno having knee surgery this offseason, but Moreno has an edge in pass protection, which could keep him on the field. I'll still take Miller on Draft Day, but Moreno has closed the gap after playing in the third preseason game against the Cowboys.

Bishop Sankey on the decline: Sankey was expected to be the No. 1 rookie running back, but he's played behind Shonn Greene all preseason and has rarely worked with the starters in Tennessee. Sankey should still have his moments this season, but his ADP has dropped to No. 50 overall.

Look for Sankey to fall farther than Round 5, and I consider him a great value pick in Round 6 or later. Consider him this year's Stacy as a rookie who might not play much in the first few weeks but could shine once Greene struggles or gets hurt.

Wide receiver breakdown

Larry Fitzgerald, overrated: Fitzgerald had a solid season in 2013 with 82 catches for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he finished as just the No. 16 receiver in standard leagues. But his ADP is No. 38 overall, and he's the No. 11 receiver off the board.

I'm OK with Fitzgerald as my No. 2 receiver, but I'd rather have Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson and Cordarrelle Patterson, who are all going after Fitzgerald. There's more upside with those other guys compared to Fitzgerald, who could lose targets to the emerging Michael Floyd.

Eric Decker, underrated: I had Decker listed as a bust in March when I expected Fantasy owners to draft him as a must-start receiver. But his ADP is No. 98 overall, which suggests everyone is aware the move from the Broncos to the Jets will hamper his production.

That said, he won't be this bad. Geno Smith has played OK this preseason, and Decker will be the No. 1 target in the passing attack for a team likely trailing in a lot of games. He's a better flier in Round 9 then guys going ahead of him like T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace and Brandin Cooks.

Marques Colston on the rise: Colston is also being drafted ahead of Decker, but I'm fine with that. When healthy, Colston could be solid, and his ADP is No. 79 overall.

He's an excellent No. 3 receiver with the chance to be a Top 20 option if he can play 16 games at 100 percent, which is a stretch. Still, with Darren Sproles and Lance Moore gone, Brees will rely on Graham and Colston even more, especially if Kenny Stills (quad) is out and Cooks struggles as a rookie.

Sammy Watkins on the decline: Injured ribs and bad quarterback play have caused Fantasy owners to run away from Watkins. His ADP is No. 99 overall.

Once he gets healthy, Watkins could have some productive games, but EJ Manuel is going to have to dramatically improve for Watkins to be considered a Fantasy starter. I'd only want him as a No. 4 receiver to stash for later in the year in re-draft leagues.

Tight end breakdown

Vernon Davis, overrated: Davis has remained the No. 4 tight end on ADP throughout the preseason, and his ADP is No. 53 overall. I don't want Davis in Round 5, and I might even pass on him in Round 6.

If his touchdowns decline this season he could finish closer to the No. 10 Fantasy tight end then No. 2 like he did last year. I'd rather pass on Davis for Dennis Pitta or Jason Witten, or I could get similar value from the group of Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz, who are being drafted in Round 8.

Dennis Pitta, underrated: Pitta is the No. 7 tight end off the board, and I expect him to have a tremendous year. He's my favorite tight end this season in Gary Kubiak's offense.

When Kubiak was the coach of the Texans, he featured his tight ends, and Pitta is the apple of Joe Flacco's eye. I consider him a Top 5 tight end in 2014, and I love his ADP at No. 76 overall.

Heath Miller on the rise: I'm glad Fantasy owners are buying into Miller, and he has moved up to No. 122 overall. He's the No. 13 tight end being drafted, and I think he has Top 10 potential.

In 2012, Miller was a Top 5 tight end before suffering a torn ACL, and he should return to playing at a high level with the Steelers having to replace Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery.

Greg Olsen on the decline: Olsen has fallen behind Reed, but he remains ahead of Rudolph and Ertz heading into this weekend. I expect that to change.

The Panthers have looked out of sorts in the preseason, and Fantasy owners are settling for Olsen instead of targeting him. I get it, but Olsen can fall to a spot where he becomes good value, with his ADP at No. 89 overall. If he slips from Round 8 to Round 9 he could end up being a great pick as one of the last Top-10 caliber tight ends this year.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Report: Bills name Tyrod Taylor starting QB
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(11:34 am ET) After a wide-open quarterback competition, the results are apparently in for Bills coach Rex Ryan. According to FOX Sports insider Jay Glazer, the Bills are prepared to name Tyrod Taylor their starter for Week 1. 

Taylor has performed well in the preseason, earning the edge over EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel, perhaps due to his threat as a runner in addition to his passing ability. 

Taylor has yet to make an NFL start, appearing in 14 games in four seasons as a backup with the Ravens. 


Bengals release WR Denarius Moore
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(11:08 am ET) The Bengals have waived receiver Denarius Moore, whom they picked up in the offseason in an attempt to add more speed to their receiving corps, per the Cincinnati Enquirer. 

Moore was expected to click with Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, his former coach with the Raiders, under whom he caught 97 passes for 1,436 yards in 2012-13. But Moore struggled in camp and caught just one pass in the preseason. 

The move puts veterans Greg Little and Brandon Tate in a better position to hang on to a roster spot. 


Report: Texans acquire OL Chris Clark from Broncos
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(11:00 am ET) The Texans made a move to shore up their offensive line, reportedly acquiring veteran tackle Chris Clark from the Broncos in exchange for a seventh-round pick, per the Denver Post

Clark has been in the league for eight seasons, the last five of which were with Denver. His addition helps a Houston offensive line in need of depth. 


Report: Jaguars trade K Josh Scobee to Steelers
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(10:29 am ET) Kicker has been a trouble spot for the Steelers this preseason, and with their second player going down at the position, the team has reportedly reached a deal with the Jaguars to acquire veteran Josh Scobee, per The Florida Times-Union

The Steelers lost incumbent Shaun Suisham to a torn ACL in the Hall of Fame game, and Saturday, replacement Garrett Hartley injured his hamstring on a kickoff, putting Pittsburgh in desperation mode. 

Scobee had been with the Jags since 2004, and was 20 of 26 on field goals last season. 


Bills release veteran RB Fred Jackson
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(10:22 am ET) In a somewhat surprising move, the Bills released running back Fred Jackson as part of their roster trimming on Monday, just days after the veteran returned from a hamstring injury and looked sharp, per the Buffalo News

Jackson was scheduled to make $2.35 million this season. Jackson had been with the Bills since 2006, and although he only had one 1,000-yard rushing season (in 2009), he was always a valuable resource out of the backfield. 

Jackson figures to draw attention from several running-back needy squads in the next few days. 


Lions release injury-prone WR Ryan Broyles
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(10:03 am ET) The Lions are finally cutting ties with receiver Ryan Broyles, whose three-year stint with the team was marred by injury, per MLive.com.

Broyles had asked for his release two days ago after playing sparingly during the preseason. A second-round pick in 2012, Broyles tore his ACL in his rookie season and then ruptured his Achilles' tendon in 2013. 

Last season, Broyles had just two catches for 34 yards, playing in just 34 snaps all year. 


Redskins name Kirk Cousins Week 1 starter
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(9:57 am ET) The drama never stops in D.C. and according to CBSSports.com NFL Insider Jason La Canfora, the Redskins have informed players that they are planning to have Kirk Cousins start their Week 1 contest against the Dolphins and not Robert Griffin III, who is apparently battling a concussion problem. 

There are reports of a rift between the football operations and ownership regarding Griffin, who has struggled this preseason before getting injured in the team's second preseason contest against Detroit. Griffin was cleared to play in the team's third preseason game before an independent neurologist reversed course, saying Griffin was still dealing with concussion-related symptoms.

Cousins has played well during the preseason, going 40-for-53 for 435 yards. 


Colts cut 14, including OL Donald Thomas
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(9:39 am ET) The Colts made their first wave of cuts Monday, trimming 14 to get to 76 players on the roster. Included in those moves was the release of guard Donald Thomas, once thought to be a key figure on the offensive line, whose effectiveness was cut short by injury, per the Indianapolis Star

The guard last played in a game in September of 2013, and he had just been activated from the physically unable to perform list Friday. In addition, cutting Thomas saves the Colts $3.75 million against the salary cap. 


Lions acquire TE Tim Wright from Buccaneers
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(9:28 am ET) The Lions have reportedly made a deal with the Buccaneers to acquire tight end Timothy Wright, in exchange for rookie kicker Kyle Brindza according to NFL Insider Ian Rapoport and confirmed by both teams. 

Wright had re-joined the Bucs after a season in New England in which he caught 26 passes and six touchdowns. Now, he will join a crowded tight end field in Detroit, where Joseph Fauria, Eric Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew are in the mix. 


Giants WR Victor Cruz still struggling with calf ailment
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(8/30/2015) The calf injury that has slowed the comeback of Giants standout wideout Victor Cruz has become a major concern, according to the New York Daily News.

Cruz, who is coming off knee surgery, has not been cleared to practice this week. It remains to be seen if his availability for the start of the regular season is threatened.

He has been sidelined since Aug. 17 and has yet to play in a preseason game. He appears unlikely to participate in the exhibition finale Thursday night at New England.


 
 
 
Rankings