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Dave Richard

Draft Preview: Draft Day strategies

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


What to do; what to do? It's the first round of your league's Fantasy draft, and you're up. The rest of the league waits with baited breath while you try to figure out who you should pick. There's that sure-fire running back you hoped would be there, but then again that quarterback who tosses all those touchdowns is also available. The clock's ticking -- are you blanking out, or are you ready to go with the name of the man you want to build your team around?

All right, it doesn't sound very exciting when you read it, but when you're actually there faced with your first pick, your heart might be racing.

Hopefully you're ready to pull the trigger on a player (or a trade). But in case you aren't 100 percent sure what you want to do with your Fantasy draft, we're here to help with a few suggestions. Each one is a Fantasy strategy that has been tried again and again -- some successful, others not as successful.

But one caveat from the get-go: Blowing off a Fantasy game plan prior to your draft is a big mistake. I've played with a guy in a league for years who looks at a few names before the draft and says he's ready. He's never had a winning record or sniffed the playoffs. It won't hurt you to spend a little free time getting ready for your draft, especially if winning your league means something to you (and why wouldn't it?)

Here are some strategies used on Draft Day:

The three-back strategy

Also known as "The Faulk Strategy," coined by my cohort Michael Fabiano. This idea is simple -- you spend your first three draft picks on running backs, regardless of who's left at other positions when you pick. In most leagues, you will find that running backs are the most picked position early on in the draft as Fantasy teams scramble for guys who touch the ball 20 or more times a game. The gist is that in leagues where you start two running backs, you're covered at one of the most coveted spots for the entire season, plus have a solid backup in case one of your "horses" gets hurt.

Pros: If you draft three good running backs, you will have trade bait to make a move before your trading deadline, thus getting a good chance to improve your team. Not every team in the league will have even two good running backs, much less three, so you'll have some quality at a key position. If you play in a league that allows three starters at running back, this may very well be the best strategy to use.

Cons: Ultimately, one of your first three picks will be on your bench if you only start two backs. You will definitely miss out on (at least) the top quarterback and the top six or seven wide receivers. Also, if you draft too well, you could make some bad decisions when picking who you start each week by leaving the best running back on your bench. In 2007 drafts, running backs will almost be taken exclusively in the first two rounds, so grabbing three solid RBs will be almost impossible.

Best player available

Chad Johnson could be a best-player available selection for owners in '06. (Getty Images)  
Chad Johnson could be a best-player available selection for owners in '06. (Getty Images)  
This one's pretty straightforward: When it's your turn to pick, take the player you think is the best on the board regardless of the position. This will mean a lot of prep work before your draft, choosing which players you like better than others. But if you follow football close enough and know who you like and who you don't like, you won't have a problem deciding who to pick.

Pros: In most cases, a good Fantasy owner will build a well-rounded team this way. By the time you enter Round 10, you'll know how your lineup is going to look for most of the season, which is a plus. You may also develop a surplus at a certain position, which may help you in making trades later on in the season.

Cons: If there's a player you love and others don't, you could wind up stretching for him when you could snag him in a later round. Also, if you draft too much at one position, like taking four quarterbacks, you're not helping yourself out, even if you pick, say, Kurt Warner over T.J. Duckett when you need a running back.

The two-QB strategy

I witnessed this one in 2002: A fellow owner drafted two well-known quarterbacks in the first round and second round, then announced to the league, "When one of you needs a quarterback, come see me." His intention was to hoard two of the top quarterbacks, then deal one off for one or two quality players later on. He eventually did deal one of them for a middle-of-the-road receiver and a fairly productive running back after losing six of his first seven games. Years later, he's still lamenting (and wishing I would stop writing about it).

Pros: You will set yourself up for a trade -- and the sooner you make one, the better if you want maximum value for one of your guys. Think about moving one right after Draft Day. If you draft well after these picks, you will surely be the cat's meow.

Cons: You will run into lineup problems all year long. By spending your first two picks on a position where you start one player, you force one of your guys to sit on your bench. The rest of your lineup will suffer. Plus, you'll be behind the rest of the league when forming your team during the draft.

The sleeper strategy

In this strategy, an owner will spend maybe one out of every three picks on players they desperately want, and it may mean picking a player a few rounds ahead of when he could be had. I have one friend who did this two years in a row with the hopes of catching the sleeper of the draft. In 2001, he took TE Tony Gonzalez with his first-rounder, and in 2003 he took Quincy Morgan in the fifth round. He didn't win either year, but neither pick cost him a playoff run.

Pros: If you're right, you've made a heck of a pick.

Cons: If you're wrong, you've wasted a heck of a pick. Keep in mind, it's okay to take a sleeper or two, but wait until the second half of your draft, or else ...

The homer strategy

Here, an owner drafts players from his or her favorite team or teams (or college). For example, if you like the Miami Hurricanes, you'll pick guys like Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James ... and Ken Dorsey, Kellen Winslow and Najeh Davenport.

Pros: While it won't give you the best possible team, it will make for a fun year on a personal level. Besides, if your favorite team does great, your Fantasy team will too.

Cons: If your favorite team bombs, you'll become really frustrated with your squad and you'll end up with players others won't value as much as you do. Plus, you won't have a flexible lineup, which is a must for any Fantasy champ. And if you go after players on a certain NFL team only, what will you do during their bye week?

The big-bang theory

This is one of my favorites. In this scenario, you pick up inconsistent players who are known for hitting it big one week, then tanking the next, then coming back big a few weeks later. Guys who fit this profile include Michael Vick, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Willie Parker and Donte Stallworth. The idea is building a lineup full of players who are always capable of a home-run performance each week -- and some will one week and another will another week.

Pros: Unless all the players have an off week, you should have one or two scoring big while one or two slump. The balance should be enough to have a strong score most weeks.

Cons: If they all tank, you tank. There will be some bad weeks where no one scores more than eight points each, and if they come at the wrong time, there's no playoffs for you.

Kickers and D/STs

For years, people have asked, "When is it right to pick up a kicker and/or a defense/special teams unit?" There are three trains of thought when it comes to this quandary.

Pick 'em sooner: Many owners like to spend two of their first 11 picks (between rounds 8 and 11) on a kicker and a defense, then find backups at other positions later. The eighth round is when the first defense should be picked, and the 11th round or so is when the first kicker should be had. By picking these positions at this point, you pretty much assure yourself the pick of the litter. Of course, by doing so, you deny yourself players at other positions, which could hurt the depth of your team.

Pick 'em later: Round 8 is too soon for some people, so they plan on jumping on the bandwagon once a few kickers or DSTs fly off the board. By Round 11, the top-tier placekickers and DSTs will be gone, but other good-looking units and kickers will still be on the board. By settling for them, they spend a few picks (around Rounds 11 and 14) gathering these lineup necessities.

Pick 'em last: There are even some Fantasy folks who prefer to pick up one kicker and one DST with their last two picks in the draft. The thinking here is that a roster is better off full of position players, and with so many kickers and DSTs available via free agency each week, one could start the kicker or unit that has the most favorable matchup among the bunch. Of course, if you do this, you'll never have one of the top defenses or kickers in the league, and it can come back to haunt you.

So which one is right for you? Chances are, it will depend on how your draft is going. If it's your pick in Round 8 and your first seven picks have been great, go get the Bears or Steelers. If you're not impressed with your team, you'd better perk up your squad and get a defense and/or kicker later.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Rams
Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."
Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

 
 
 
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