There is nothing like setting your Fantasy lineup for the first time.
It's like putting on shorts and a t-shirt following a freezing winter,
having that "magical" first date, or getting electricity back in your
house after two weeks without power thanks to a vicious hurricane that
South Florida weather "experts" completely misdiagnosed.
Sorry, I'm still bitter over that last one.
Point is, the Fantasy season is here and there are plenty of storylines
and players who moved up and down rank lists like window cleaners on a
skyscraper. But before you read on, I'll make the cardinal rule of
journalism and ask you to divert your eyes elsewhere.
I want you to set your lineup RIGHT NOW.
Yes, even if you're playing me this week.
Last year, my first with CBS SportsLine after years elsewhere, I was so
enthralled with the comings and goings of the preseason that I actually
forgot to set a lineup in a league that I play in. I missed the playoffs
by one game. Had I set my lineup in Week 1, I would have made it and
maybe "pulled a Pittsburgh" as a low seed.
So go set your lineup. I mean, if you haven't already. Bonus cookies for
you if you did.
And let's get ready for some Fantasy Football! Hopefully, Fantasy gods
willing, we'll be this amped up 16 weeks from now.
Preseason player storylines
Here are some of Fantasy's most notable movers and shakers this
preseason:
Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago: As training camp opened, NFL pundits
figured Benson would be the starter since he was getting paid big bucks
(bigger than Thomas Jones, anyway). But a separated shoulder and
a ditching of his teammates has led to Benson watching Jones run in Week
1 instead of rushing against what appears to be a pillowy soft Green Bay
defense.
Week 1 status: Useless; start Jones as a No. 2 RB.
Ron Dayne, RB, Texans: Dayne opened training camp in Denver as
the team's starting running back. Fantasy owners everywhere went "Are
you serious?!" Coach Mike Shanahan must have caught wind of our
collective skepticism, demoting him before the first preseason game for
undrafted rookie Mike Bell. Nice way for a former Heisman Trophy
winner to go out. Now he'll be the third-stringer in Houston behind Wali
Lundy and Vernand Morency. Yeah, sure, we saw that coming.
Week
1 status: Dayne will be learning exactly where in Texas he is.
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Donte Stallworth could start '06 with a bang.
(AP)
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Doug Gabriel and Donte Stallworth, WRs, New England and Philadelphia:
A couple of underachieving wideouts get a crack at credibility with
contenders. Gabriel joins New England during a time when Bill Belichick
himself would suit up and play flanker if he could, and Stallworth is
the late-arriving replacement for
Terrell Owens. Both have great
skills but haven't shown a ton of consistency over their careers.
Week
1 status: Gabriel should sit, but Stallworth could haul in a monster
game at Houston.
Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin, RBs, Kansas City and N.Y. Jets:
Two Fantasy legends are shelved to start the season and may wind up
never playing again. Holmes (neck) has yet to be cleared by doctors
while Martin supposedly has no cartilage left in his knee. Keeping
either one (or both) on Fantasy rosters could end up costing you a space
for a hot waiver wire player at some point.
Week 1-6 status:
Bench city.
Michael Koenen, PK, Atlanta: So get this ... Atlanta will not
only save salary cap space, but they'll also save a roster spot by
having second-year man Koenen punt, kick field goals and kick off.
That's smart maneuvering, except what happens when Koenen's leg falls
off around Week 10?
Week 1 status: Start him only in deeper
leagues since he's facing the Panthers.
Wali Lundy, RB, Houston: An afterthought as a sixth-round pick in
the NFL Draft, Lundy played quite a bit in the Texans' first preseason
game, ran well and wound up taking over the team's top rushing duties
(thank you, Domanick Davis' bruised knee). Know this: Houston's
head coach, Gary Kubiak, comes from Denver, where they turned late-round
picks like Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson into 1,000-yard
rushers. Why do I get the feeling we have the arrival of the 2006
version of Samkon Gado early?
Week 1 status: Faces the
Eagles in Houston. Should be an OK No. 3 RB.
Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta: Another non first-round pick rookie
who excelled. He did so well for the Falcons that the team was able to
peddle human bowling ball T.J. Duckett to the Redskins after Clinton
Portis got hurt doing his best strong safety impersonation. Norwood,
who is a lot like starter Warrick Dunn but has a stronger lower
body, could develop into quite a sleeper.
Week 1 status: Not a
safe start unless you can specifically start rookies as part of your
active roster. He's fabulous insurance for Dunn, though.
Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas: Went from popcorn purveyor to Tour de
France wannabe. "The Player," as coach Bill Parcells called him, sat out
most of the preseason with a hamstring injury (one of two significant
injuries we learned T.O. has -- the other being a "chronic groin
problem," according to a source) and made one preseason catch for six
yards. Still, he remains a wanted receiver in Fantasy circles; his trade
value may never be this low again.
Week 1 status: If healthy,
he should start in all leagues.
Billy Volek, QB, Tennessee: Expected Titans QB was thrown under
the bus when the team signed Kerry Collins with one week left in
the preseason, then started giving Collins first-team reps. The Titans'
web site has him still in the front among team QBs -- including Vince
Young -- but Volek is probably not going to hold the job for long.
Week
1 status: If you're starting Volek, your Fantasy team is already in
serious trouble.
Fantasy vs. Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths
(Reality) during the week's action.
Reality: Ben Roethlisberger's appendix has crummy timing. This
just in -- Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had an emergency appendectomy
four days before the season opener against the Dolphins and will not
play. The Steelers aren't ruling him out for an extended period of time,
but expert physician Dr. Gerald Farby (who also happens to be my
father-in-law) told me that no doctor would clear him to play in even two
weeks. "Not even a die-hard Steelers fan who is a doctor," he said. So,
expect to be without him for two games; one suitable replacement could
be ... don't laugh ... Alex Smith of the 49ers. San Fran opens
the season at Arizona and vs. St. Louis. Both could be high-scoring
duels. Chad Pennington would be another decent option. And before
you curse your luck, Fantasy owners who have Big Ben, remember that an
exploding appendix is better than an exploding anterior cruciate
ligament.
Fantasy: Reuben Droughns was a waste of a Fantasy pick. Maybe
down the line, but not for Week 1. Droughns has the delightful task of
running against the Saints at home to start the season. New Orleans'
first-string defense looked pretty crummy in four preseason games, and
with new center Hank Fraley a key part of the Browns' O-line, look for
Droughns to have a strong rushing week.
Reality: Jamal Lewis won't be as lucky. Lewis, who missed
the last two weeks of the preseason with a hip flexor, will debut in
Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. Baltimore's offensive line is OK (not
bad, not great), but the combo of not being used to the NFL
wear-and-tear, coming back from a hip ailment and facing the ferocious
Bucco defense means that Lewis should sit down in leagues if possible.
I'd be inclined to say he'll do much better vs. Oakland in Week 2.
Fantasy: Jerry Porter won't play with the Raiders. Lo and
behold, the NFL season is here, and Porter is not only still in Oakland,
but the team dealt the guy who could have replaced him in the lineup!
Hopefully, Porter and head coach Art Shell made nice-nice and the
Raiders will have a good option opposite Randy Moss. I wouldn't
start Porter in Week 1; take a wait-and-see approach instead.
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Deion Branch may not be catching passes for the Pats this year.
(Getty Images)
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Reality: Deion Branch is this year's Terrell Owens. Holding
out? Trade shopping? Grievances? Are we sure Branch isn't represented by
Drew Rosenhaus?! If you own Branch, he's got some solid potential but
might not help your team until later in the year, and he may not be
wearing a Patriots jersey when he does. New England may even be so
inclined to hold on to Branch until the trade deadline, then ship him to
a contender, most likely in the NFC (Seattle, perhaps?).
Fantasy: The Redskins will dominate in their first home game. I
have no confirmation that Portis will be out for the first game of the
year, but seeing as how no significant progress reports have been made,
I can make that assumption. The Vikings, under new head coach Brad
Childress, will be champing at the bit (yes, it's champing, not
chomping) to make an impression early, and Brad Johnson -- an
ex-Skin -- will definitely be fired up. A motivated, efficient team will
come into FedEx Field and pluck a win out of Joe Gibbs' back pocket.
Reality: The Jets are going to look competitive for a week. Playing
for their new boss against the worst run defense in the league,
look for the Jets to post an upset of sorts at Tennessee. Not only are
the Titans incapable of slamming the run, but they have a huge
quarterback controversy, a mild running back dilemma and an offensive
line that could use a cloning machine to bring back Bruce Matthews.
Derrick Blaylock, Kevan Barlow and Laveranues Coles
owners, we're talking to you.
Deuce vs. Bush: Week 1
(For the entire 2006 season, we're going to give owners a verdict on
who should start between Saints RBs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush --
many Fantasy owners took both in drafts. We will do this every week
until either one of the players is an obvious start over the other or
one of the players gets hurt.)
This week's game: at Cleveland
• I would imagine that the Saints will attempt to set up the pass by
running plenty, and that should favor Deuce McAllister. I don't know if
the Browns will have an answer for Bush on defense (maybe safety Sean
Jones), but I also don't know how much head coach Sean Payton will let
his prized rookie play. Neither team boasts a solid defense (I already
touched on the Saints; Cleveland's secondary is so-so), so expect a
moderately high-scoring game, which would also seem to favor Deuce.
The
pick: Deuce over Bush.
Strategy session
Is it right to bench any players we drafted to be starters in Week 1?
How many times have you heard that Fantasy Football is all about the
matchups? If that's the first time you've heard it, then you're probably
new to the game. Frankly, it's the most simple rule out there: You play
the players who have easy matchups and bench the ones who have difficult
matchups. Now nobody will bench the guys the drafted in the first three
rounds (example: Ronnie Brown at Pittsburgh), but anybody picked
outside of your first three selections should be fair game for a seat.
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Donald Driver could be a risky start in Week 1.
(AP)
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Take anybody from Green Bay, for example. Yes, the Packers should be
hoppin' to take home their first game at Lambeau in what might be Brett
Favre's swan song and deliver a win to rookie coach Mike McCarthy, but
their bitter rival Chicago isn't exactly going to lay down. I'd bench
everyone on the Packers this week except for
maybe Donald
Driver, depending on what other options a Fantasy owner had at his
or her disposal.
Another one: The Texans hosting the Eagles. Again, Houston would love to
win one for coach Kubiak, but the Eagles know they'll need every win
they can get their wings on. Lundy is at best a No. 3 RB, and Andre
Johnson should be looked at as a No. 3 wide receiver for this week,
not a No. 2.
And matching this mold to a "T" is the Seattle-Detroit matchup. Another
team with a rookie head coach starting at home against a tough defensive
opponent. So for those of you who drafted Kevin Jones and Roy
Williams, think long and hard about sitting one or both. Same thing
with the Denver-St. Louis tilt, although sitting Steven Jackson
and Torry Holt really isn't an option, is it?
Parting shot
I took a look back at
my first Fantasy & Reality column after Week 1 of last year
and got hit with a bolt of lightning. Things we took for granted last
season are not guaranteed this season. Now this isn't supposed to
mean that LaDainian Tomlinson won't stomp all over the Raiders,
but just remember that the NFL is an ever-changing league. There are no
better examples of that than the Cardinals and Bengals, both of whom
should be competitive this year (you know how much I like Cincy already).
I'm nervous about a few players who did really well last year. Santana
Moss has new mates at wide receiver to take away some of his
production and has a shaky QB situation. Joey Galloway had a
career year -- what are the odds he can improve on that at the age of
34? Steve Smith was the man but defensive coordinators have had
six months to find a way to stop him (if his hammy doesn't stop him
first). And Edgerrin James was ol' reliable while in
Indianapolis, but how will defenses play him in Arizona?
This is a game filled with competitive balance (the NFL doesn't
like the term "parity"). Teams that were great last year aren't promised
to be great this year. Players that were Pro Bowlers last year could be
cut by their teams at this time in 2007.
Don't let anything surprise you. And don't make a hasty quick-trigger
move just because a player does poorly, or because a free agent you've
never heard of played the game of his life.
There will be plenty of time to be impatient later this season; just
kick back, enjoy the NFL games and hope your appendix stays in one piece.
Each week Dave Richard will answer your Fantasy Football questions
in this space. You can e-mail your questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com.
Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field.
Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the
large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal
responses or answers to all questions.
