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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: Another Big Ben injury

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


There is nothing like setting your Fantasy lineup for the first time. It's like putting on shorts and a t-shirt following a freezing winter, having that "magical" first date, or getting electricity back in your house after two weeks without power thanks to a vicious hurricane that South Florida weather "experts" completely misdiagnosed.

Sorry, I'm still bitter over that last one.

Point is, the Fantasy season is here and there are plenty of storylines and players who moved up and down rank lists like window cleaners on a skyscraper. But before you read on, I'll make the cardinal rule of journalism and ask you to divert your eyes elsewhere.

I want you to set your lineup RIGHT NOW.

Yes, even if you're playing me this week.

Last year, my first with CBS SportsLine after years elsewhere, I was so enthralled with the comings and goings of the preseason that I actually forgot to set a lineup in a league that I play in. I missed the playoffs by one game. Had I set my lineup in Week 1, I would have made it and maybe "pulled a Pittsburgh" as a low seed.

So go set your lineup. I mean, if you haven't already. Bonus cookies for you if you did.

And let's get ready for some Fantasy Football! Hopefully, Fantasy gods willing, we'll be this amped up 16 weeks from now.

Preseason player storylines

Here are some of Fantasy's most notable movers and shakers this preseason:

Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago: As training camp opened, NFL pundits figured Benson would be the starter since he was getting paid big bucks (bigger than Thomas Jones, anyway). But a separated shoulder and a ditching of his teammates has led to Benson watching Jones run in Week 1 instead of rushing against what appears to be a pillowy soft Green Bay defense.
Week 1 status: Useless; start Jones as a No. 2 RB.

Ron Dayne, RB, Texans: Dayne opened training camp in Denver as the team's starting running back. Fantasy owners everywhere went "Are you serious?!" Coach Mike Shanahan must have caught wind of our collective skepticism, demoting him before the first preseason game for undrafted rookie Mike Bell. Nice way for a former Heisman Trophy winner to go out. Now he'll be the third-stringer in Houston behind Wali Lundy and Vernand Morency. Yeah, sure, we saw that coming.
Week 1 status: Dayne will be learning exactly where in Texas he is.

Donte Stallworth could start '06 with a bang. (AP)  
Donte Stallworth could start '06 with a bang. (AP)  
Doug Gabriel and Donte Stallworth, WRs, New England and Philadelphia: A couple of underachieving wideouts get a crack at credibility with contenders. Gabriel joins New England during a time when Bill Belichick himself would suit up and play flanker if he could, and Stallworth is the late-arriving replacement for Terrell Owens. Both have great skills but haven't shown a ton of consistency over their careers.
Week 1 status: Gabriel should sit, but Stallworth could haul in a monster game at Houston.

Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin, RBs, Kansas City and N.Y. Jets: Two Fantasy legends are shelved to start the season and may wind up never playing again. Holmes (neck) has yet to be cleared by doctors while Martin supposedly has no cartilage left in his knee. Keeping either one (or both) on Fantasy rosters could end up costing you a space for a hot waiver wire player at some point.
Week 1-6 status: Bench city.

Michael Koenen, PK, Atlanta: So get this ... Atlanta will not only save salary cap space, but they'll also save a roster spot by having second-year man Koenen punt, kick field goals and kick off. That's smart maneuvering, except what happens when Koenen's leg falls off around Week 10?
Week 1 status: Start him only in deeper leagues since he's facing the Panthers.

Wali Lundy, RB, Houston: An afterthought as a sixth-round pick in the NFL Draft, Lundy played quite a bit in the Texans' first preseason game, ran well and wound up taking over the team's top rushing duties (thank you, Domanick Davis' bruised knee). Know this: Houston's head coach, Gary Kubiak, comes from Denver, where they turned late-round picks like Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson into 1,000-yard rushers. Why do I get the feeling we have the arrival of the 2006 version of Samkon Gado early?
Week 1 status: Faces the Eagles in Houston. Should be an OK No. 3 RB.

Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta: Another non first-round pick rookie who excelled. He did so well for the Falcons that the team was able to peddle human bowling ball T.J. Duckett to the Redskins after Clinton Portis got hurt doing his best strong safety impersonation. Norwood, who is a lot like starter Warrick Dunn but has a stronger lower body, could develop into quite a sleeper.
Week 1 status: Not a safe start unless you can specifically start rookies as part of your active roster. He's fabulous insurance for Dunn, though.

Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas: Went from popcorn purveyor to Tour de France wannabe. "The Player," as coach Bill Parcells called him, sat out most of the preseason with a hamstring injury (one of two significant injuries we learned T.O. has -- the other being a "chronic groin problem," according to a source) and made one preseason catch for six yards. Still, he remains a wanted receiver in Fantasy circles; his trade value may never be this low again.
Week 1 status: If healthy, he should start in all leagues.

Billy Volek, QB, Tennessee: Expected Titans QB was thrown under the bus when the team signed Kerry Collins with one week left in the preseason, then started giving Collins first-team reps. The Titans' web site has him still in the front among team QBs -- including Vince Young -- but Volek is probably not going to hold the job for long.
Week 1 status: If you're starting Volek, your Fantasy team is already in serious trouble.

Fantasy vs. Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Reality: Ben Roethlisberger's appendix has crummy timing. This just in -- Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had an emergency appendectomy four days before the season opener against the Dolphins and will not play. The Steelers aren't ruling him out for an extended period of time, but expert physician Dr. Gerald Farby (who also happens to be my father-in-law) told me that no doctor would clear him to play in even two weeks. "Not even a die-hard Steelers fan who is a doctor," he said. So, expect to be without him for two games; one suitable replacement could be ... don't laugh ... Alex Smith of the 49ers. San Fran opens the season at Arizona and vs. St. Louis. Both could be high-scoring duels. Chad Pennington would be another decent option. And before you curse your luck, Fantasy owners who have Big Ben, remember that an exploding appendix is better than an exploding anterior cruciate ligament.

Fantasy: Reuben Droughns was a waste of a Fantasy pick. Maybe down the line, but not for Week 1. Droughns has the delightful task of running against the Saints at home to start the season. New Orleans' first-string defense looked pretty crummy in four preseason games, and with new center Hank Fraley a key part of the Browns' O-line, look for Droughns to have a strong rushing week.

Reality: Jamal Lewis won't be as lucky. Lewis, who missed the last two weeks of the preseason with a hip flexor, will debut in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. Baltimore's offensive line is OK (not bad, not great), but the combo of not being used to the NFL wear-and-tear, coming back from a hip ailment and facing the ferocious Bucco defense means that Lewis should sit down in leagues if possible. I'd be inclined to say he'll do much better vs. Oakland in Week 2.

Fantasy: Jerry Porter won't play with the Raiders. Lo and behold, the NFL season is here, and Porter is not only still in Oakland, but the team dealt the guy who could have replaced him in the lineup! Hopefully, Porter and head coach Art Shell made nice-nice and the Raiders will have a good option opposite Randy Moss. I wouldn't start Porter in Week 1; take a wait-and-see approach instead.

Deion Branch may not be catching passes for the Pats this year. (Getty Images)  
Deion Branch may not be catching passes for the Pats this year. (Getty Images)  
Reality: Deion Branch is this year's Terrell Owens. Holding out? Trade shopping? Grievances? Are we sure Branch isn't represented by Drew Rosenhaus?! If you own Branch, he's got some solid potential but might not help your team until later in the year, and he may not be wearing a Patriots jersey when he does. New England may even be so inclined to hold on to Branch until the trade deadline, then ship him to a contender, most likely in the NFC (Seattle, perhaps?).

Fantasy: The Redskins will dominate in their first home game. I have no confirmation that Portis will be out for the first game of the year, but seeing as how no significant progress reports have been made, I can make that assumption. The Vikings, under new head coach Brad Childress, will be champing at the bit (yes, it's champing, not chomping) to make an impression early, and Brad Johnson -- an ex-Skin -- will definitely be fired up. A motivated, efficient team will come into FedEx Field and pluck a win out of Joe Gibbs' back pocket.

Reality: The Jets are going to look competitive for a week. Playing for their new boss against the worst run defense in the league, look for the Jets to post an upset of sorts at Tennessee. Not only are the Titans incapable of slamming the run, but they have a huge quarterback controversy, a mild running back dilemma and an offensive line that could use a cloning machine to bring back Bruce Matthews. Derrick Blaylock, Kevan Barlow and Laveranues Coles owners, we're talking to you.

Deuce vs. Bush: Week 1

(For the entire 2006 season, we're going to give owners a verdict on who should start between Saints RBs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush -- many Fantasy owners took both in drafts. We will do this every week until either one of the players is an obvious start over the other or one of the players gets hurt.)

This week's game: at Cleveland

• I would imagine that the Saints will attempt to set up the pass by running plenty, and that should favor Deuce McAllister. I don't know if the Browns will have an answer for Bush on defense (maybe safety Sean Jones), but I also don't know how much head coach Sean Payton will let his prized rookie play. Neither team boasts a solid defense (I already touched on the Saints; Cleveland's secondary is so-so), so expect a moderately high-scoring game, which would also seem to favor Deuce.
The pick: Deuce over Bush.

Strategy session

Is it right to bench any players we drafted to be starters in Week 1?

How many times have you heard that Fantasy Football is all about the matchups? If that's the first time you've heard it, then you're probably new to the game. Frankly, it's the most simple rule out there: You play the players who have easy matchups and bench the ones who have difficult matchups. Now nobody will bench the guys the drafted in the first three rounds (example: Ronnie Brown at Pittsburgh), but anybody picked outside of your first three selections should be fair game for a seat.

Donald Driver could be a risky start in Week 1. (AP)  
Donald Driver could be a risky start in Week 1. (AP)  
Take anybody from Green Bay, for example. Yes, the Packers should be hoppin' to take home their first game at Lambeau in what might be Brett Favre's swan song and deliver a win to rookie coach Mike McCarthy, but their bitter rival Chicago isn't exactly going to lay down. I'd bench everyone on the Packers this week except for maybe Donald Driver, depending on what other options a Fantasy owner had at his or her disposal.

Another one: The Texans hosting the Eagles. Again, Houston would love to win one for coach Kubiak, but the Eagles know they'll need every win they can get their wings on. Lundy is at best a No. 3 RB, and Andre Johnson should be looked at as a No. 3 wide receiver for this week, not a No. 2.

And matching this mold to a "T" is the Seattle-Detroit matchup. Another team with a rookie head coach starting at home against a tough defensive opponent. So for those of you who drafted Kevin Jones and Roy Williams, think long and hard about sitting one or both. Same thing with the Denver-St. Louis tilt, although sitting Steven Jackson and Torry Holt really isn't an option, is it?

Parting shot

I took a look back at my first Fantasy & Reality column after Week 1 of last year and got hit with a bolt of lightning. Things we took for granted last season are not guaranteed this season. Now this isn't supposed to mean that LaDainian Tomlinson won't stomp all over the Raiders, but just remember that the NFL is an ever-changing league. There are no better examples of that than the Cardinals and Bengals, both of whom should be competitive this year (you know how much I like Cincy already).

I'm nervous about a few players who did really well last year. Santana Moss has new mates at wide receiver to take away some of his production and has a shaky QB situation. Joey Galloway had a career year -- what are the odds he can improve on that at the age of 34? Steve Smith was the man but defensive coordinators have had six months to find a way to stop him (if his hammy doesn't stop him first). And Edgerrin James was ol' reliable while in Indianapolis, but how will defenses play him in Arizona?

This is a game filled with competitive balance (the NFL doesn't like the term "parity"). Teams that were great last year aren't promised to be great this year. Players that were Pro Bowlers last year could be cut by their teams at this time in 2007.

Don't let anything surprise you. And don't make a hasty quick-trigger move just because a player does poorly, or because a free agent you've never heard of played the game of his life.

There will be plenty of time to be impatient later this season; just kick back, enjoy the NFL games and hope your appendix stays in one piece.

Each week Dave Richard will answer your Fantasy Football questions in this space. You can e-mail your questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

Rams
Coaches excited about Bradford
Rams, TQB STL,
11:44 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Rams coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are excited to be working with QB Sam Bradford. Fisher has said on several occasions that Bradford's presence was a major factor that made the Rams' job attractive. "Sam was a big part of the decision," Fisher said. "We think he has a chance to be great. A lot of people around the league believe that. We are going to everything possible to make that happen." As Schottenheimer began watching tape of Bradford, he liked what he saw. "Obviously, he's extremely gifted, extremely talented," Schottenheimer said. "As I'm watching the film, getting the sense of how accurate he is with the football and how well he actually moves around and has made plays. That was one of the things that jumped off the film at me. It will be a fun process going through and looking at all the games and just getting a sense of where he's at. Obviously, I've been around a lot of young quarterbacks, but I think this guy's got a chance to be real special."
Analysis: We have high expectations for Bradford heading into 2012, but he still remains just a No. 2 Fantasy QB in the majority of leagues. The Rams need to give Bradford some weapons, but he is someone to draft with a late-round pick with the hope he can develop into a potential starting option in all formats.

 
 
 
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