The funny thing about well-laid plans is they never seem to go according to script.
Every year Fantasy owners get together for draft night with their strategy in hand to demolish the competition. They have set up their tiers. They have picked out their sleepers. They assure themselves this is the year.
Usually, it's hard to mess up the easy picks. The only thing that usually stands in the way of the elite players continuing their dominance in their respectful sport is injury.
No, it's the value picks -- middle to late-round selections who exceed expectations -- that seem to either make or break a Fantasy season, and very few players made bigger strides in the Fantasy Hockey world in 2008-09 than Devils forward Zach Parise.
|
|
|
Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas was only drafted in 59 percent of leagues last fall.
(Getty Images)
|
|
About to enter his fourth-year in the NHL, Parise still didn't garner the type of respect he deserved in Fantasy despite he was coming off two straight 30-goal seasons. It was quite evident as he was the 83rd most drafted player in CBSSports.com leagues -- which was a downgrade from the year before.
By the end of the season, Parise gave those loyal Fantasy owners who stuck by his side the greatest value out of any player they drafted.
Parise went on to record career highs in goals (45), assists (49), points (94), plus-minus (30) and power-play goals (14). He finished as the third highest-scoring Fantasy forward (297 points), only trailing Alex Ovechkin (341) and Evgeni Malkin (329).
Not bad for a guy that on average was picked 95th overall in most Fantasy leagues.
"I'll never complain about it. I'm happy with it," Parise told The Newark Star-Ledger of scoring 45 goals. "Of course I'd love to score 50. I'll try it again next year. Start over."
Parise summed it up perfectly -- start over. As the 2009-10 Fantasy season approaches, we all get to try our luck again on Draft Day in search of this year's Zach Parise.
However, Parise wasn't the only NHLer this past season to severely alter his Fantasy value for the better.
As we continue our look back at the season that was the '08-09 campaign, we felt it was a perfect time to highlight some players that have moved up the Fantasy rankings from where they were a season ago.
As for Parise, the former 2003 first-rounder (17th overall) doesn't consider himself among the stars of the NHL like he views Ovechkin, Malkin and Sidney Crosby. But whether he likes it or not, Parise can no longer hide in the shadows of Fantasy obscurity.
"Zach is strong, he's got great hands, he's got great knowledge of the game, he can shoot the puck, knows how to pass the puck, knows how to get into areas to score and knows how to make guys better around him," former New Jersey coach Brent Sutter, who recently resigned for personal reasons, told NHL.com. "He's what you'd say is a complete player, in just about every aspect of the game and, yet, he's only going to get better."
(Editor's note: Average draft position and Fantasy scoring references based on standard Head-to-Head formats)
Jeff Carter, C, Philadelphia
Beginning Ownership: 72 percent
Ending Ownership: 99 percent
Analysis: Aside from an injury-plagued 2006-07, Carter had been a reliable goal scorer for the Flyers since entering the league in 2005-06. But he took his game to another level in '08-09. He finished second in the NHL with 46 goals and found his role as a top-six forward for the Flyers. Even when Mike Richards and Daniel Briere were healthy, head coach John Stevens didn't want to move Carter out of the top-six rotation because he became such an elite goal scorer. Carter did his best work earlier in the season as 27 of his goals came in the first 37 games.
Draft Projection: Carter was the 163rd drafted player in '08-09 and finished the season as the fifth best scorer among Fantasy centers. He is going to be taken as a No. 1 or No. 2 Fantasy forward in most drafts this season, but don't be surprised if he ends up on some bust lists to begin the season.
Todd White, C, Atlanta
Beginning Ownership: 5 percent
Ending Ownership: 68 percent
Analysis: Even with John Anderson taking over as a first-year coach for the Thrashers in '08-09, Atlanta wasn't expected to contend. They didn't disappoint as they finished in the bottom three in the Eastern Conference. However, Ilya Kovalchuk still reigned supreme as the team's All-Star forward. Atlanta found some diamonds in the rough in Bryan Little, Rich Peverley and Colby Armstrong. And White had a career intervention coming off one of his worst seasons. White had a career-low minus-12 rating in his first year with Atlanta in '06-07 under the guidance of Don Waddell. Once Waddell moved to the front office, White got back to work under Anderson and looked as efficient offensively as during his glory days with the Senators. He had a career-high 51 assists, 73 points and 12 power-play goals. The best news was that he played 80-plus games for the first time since 2002-03. White's success can largely be attributed to the fact he didn't have to fight off injury.
Draft Projection: We don't see White being drafted in just 5 percent of leagues again, and the good news is that Atlanta should return a bulk of its primary forwards since Armstrong is the only top goal-scorer headed for free agency. White is going to be a nice No. 4 or No. 5 Fantasy forward for most formats.
Mikko Koivu, C, Minnesota
Beginning Ownership: 52 percent
Ending Ownership: 85 percent
Analysis: Koivu's ownership got as high as 96 percent, but it tailed off late in the season due to some injury concerns. It still doesn't take away from the fact that Koivu was Minnesota's knight in shining armor. With Marian Gaborik sidelined most of the season due to a hip injury, Koivu became Minnesota's most effective offensive weapon. He threatened as a point-per-game player for most of the season before injury settled in. He still finished with a second-straight 20-goal season and career highs in assists (47), points (67) and short-handed goals (4). We know we already wrote about Koivu this offseason, but the news got even better for the Finnish forward when Minnesota replaced the defensive-minded Jacques Lemaire with Todd Richards, who wants to bring a system that emphasizes puck possession, a strong forecheck and a fast pace, offense-oriented style. It could be just enough to keep Gaborik from leaving Minnesota and should allow Koivu's offensive game to flourish in '09-10.
Draft Projection: Former Lightning head coach Barry Melrose called Koivu one of the NHL's top five players last season. Koivu might just be scratching the surface, and he is going to be a No. 4 Fantasy forward on Draft Day with serious sleeper potential.
Mark Streit, D, N.Y. Islanders
Beginning Ownership: 94 percent
Ending Ownership: 97 percent
Analysis: In what seemed like career-suicide, Streit left Montreal for Long Island following a career season in '07-08. He was going from a Stanley Cup contender to perennial pretender, but like we said above, money talks. No one could blame Streit for setting himself up financially, but many analysts -- including yours truly -- felt his production would take a dive heading to New York. Not so fast. Streit was arguably the Islanders' best defender and offensive weapon. He led the team with 56 points and 10 power-play scores. He also had a career-high 16 goals and finished on the plus-side for the first time in his four-year career.
Draft Projection: Streit was the sixth best Fantasy scorer among defensemen in '08-09. He beat the likes of Dan Boyle, Andrei Markov, Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rafalski. It just goes to show you don't need to be on a contender to be a worthwhile Fantasy option. The days of Streit being anything but a No. 1 Fantasy defenseman on Draft Day appear to be in the past.
Niklas Kronwall, D, Detroit
Beginning Ownership: 84 percent
Ending Ownership: 92 percent
Analysis: I felt Kronwall was being drafted a little too high in '08-09 (41st among defensemen) for a guy that scored just seven goals the previous season. However, the fact he finished at plus-25 and was playing for the defending Stanley Cup champions helped elevate his status. Boy, do I look foolish. In the beginning, my gut feeling wasn't so far off since Kronwall struggled out of the gate. He had all of two goals and a minus-5 rating in his first 47 games, but the Swedish defenseman had quite a stretch run. He did his best work when he was paired with future Hall-of-Famer Nicklas Lidstrom. Kronwall finished the season with four goals, 21 assists and a plus-7 rating in the final 33 regular-season games. Kronwall also didn't finish with a negative weekly points total over the final 17 Fantasy periods after accomplishing that feat three times in the first 10 weeks.
Draft Projection: Kronwall is going to play alongside many familiar faces in '09-10 -- Lidstrom, Rafalski, Brad Stuart and Andreas Lilja. However, the new wild card will be Jonathan Ericsson, who had a standout playoff run for the Red Wings. Again, Kronwall could be a player that shows up on a lot of busts lists, but he has still earned the right to be drafted among the top 20-25 Fantasy defensemen.
Loui Eriksson, LW, Dallas
Beginning Ownership: 11 percent
Ending Ownership: 87 percent
Analysis: The injuries started early in '08-09 for the Stars and one of the bigger names to bite the dust was Brenden Morrow, who made it just 18 games before a knee injury ended his season. The door was then open for someone, anyone, to assume the primary scoring responsibilities. Dallas got their answer in Eriksson, who ended up leading the team with 36 goals. Go figure -- another Swede among the top scorers in the NHL. Eriksson really had two ho-hum seasons in the NHL before his breakout year despite the constant prodding from coach Dave Tippett, who unfortunately was fired and replaced by Marc Crawford.
Draft Projection: Morrow is expected back at full strength in '09-10, but that doesn't mean Eriksson is going to ride off into the sunset. He is entering the final year of his contract and Dallas will still need capable scorers as the Crawford era begins. Since he is more of a goal scorer than an all-around player, consider Eriksson as nice No. 4 Fantasy forward Draft Day.
Chris Campoli, D, Ottawa
Beginning Ownership: 7 percent
Ending Ownership: 43 percent
Analysis: Campoli's career got off to a promising start in 2005-06, as he posted nine goals and 25 assists in 80 games as a rookie with the Islanders. He then endured two straight injury-plagued seasons and never seemed to get back on course -- until a late-season trade to Ottawa in '08-09. Then interim Senators coach Cory Clouston was over the moon about landing a puck-moving defenseman like Campoli. The four-year veteran finished the season with five goals, eight assists and a plus-4 rating in 25 games following his trade from New York.
Draft Projection: When people look at Campoli's stats heading into next season and see a minus-16 rating, it's not going to tell the story of what might come. Clouston has been retained by the Senators and Campoli is entering the final season of his contract. It's the formula for what could bring a career season from the 6-0, 190-pound defender. Campoli is going to be drafted as a No. 5 or No. 6 Fantasy defensemen but definitely has sleeper potential.
Tim Thomas, G, Boston
Beginning Ownership: 59 percent
Ending Ownership: 86 percent
Analysis: The Bruins have finally stopped treating Thomas as a stopgap option and have opted to make him their franchise goalie following a second 30-win season. He likely would have never reached this plateau had Manny Fernandez not missed the '07-08 season due to injury. It allowed Thomas to make the bulk of starts in net for Boston and build his confidence heading into '08-09. Even with Fernandez pushing him for the starting job, Thomas didn't buckle and ended up with a four-year, $20 million extension for his efforts. Thomas had an NHL best 2.10 GAA and .933 save percentage this season and finished 36-11-7 with five shutouts. Even after Boston cooled off a bit following a red hot start, it was the offense that struggled and not Thomas.
Draft Projection: Had Thomas not lost more than 20 appearances to Fernandez, he would have likely ended the season as the top scoring Fantasy goalie. But, fourth isn't too shabby. Fernandez is headed for free agency, and it wouldn't surprise us if Tuukka Rask gets the call to be Thomas' primary backup in '09-10. As long as Claude Julien is coach, Thomas isn't likely going to be a 65-70 start goalie. Still, he has 94 wins over the last three seasons and has erased the days of being called a low-end No. 2 Fantasy goalie.
Jason Blake, LW, Toronto
Beginning Ownership: 49 percent
Ending Ownership: 81 percent
Analysis: At one point during the season, Blake's ownership dipped as low as 25 percent before it took an upswing. He really struggled after signing his big free-agent deal with Toronto in 2007, but a lot of it had to do with the fact he had to overcome a bout with cancer. Many thought his down year in '07-08 had to do with a turbulent relationship with former coach Paul Maurice, but Blake admitted to playing with a chip on his shoulder after being diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia. Many loved ones urged Blake to take some time off, but he chose to continue playing. He said he wasn't a lot of fun to be around. Much didn't change to begin the '08-09 season until new coach Ron Wilson finally benched Blake for his poor play. It seemed to light a spark under the former 40-goal scorer. Blake ended the season with 53 points (22 goals) in his final 59 games.
Draft Projection: Blake finally seems back to his old self and on good terms with Wilson. He is pretty much Toronto's best offensive weapon and is allowed to shoot at will. He has never had a 70-point season, but is usually good for 20-plus goals. Blake might have finished as the 68th best scoring forward in Fantasy last season, but he is still worth a look as a No. 4 or at worst a No. 5 Fantasy forward on Draft Day.
Chris Kunitz, LW, Pittsburgh
Beginning Ownership: 78 percent
Ending Ownership: 85 percent
Analysis: Many were expecting Kunitz to take his game to the next level after having a career-high 60 points and 25 goals in '06-07 with the Ducks, but the sad fact of the matter is that his game regressed as Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne and Bobby Ryan became Anaheim's primary weapons. His offensive game got to the point where he was so unreliable that Anaheim needed to let him go. They did just that and shipped him to Pittsburgh right before the trade deadline. Great move for Kunitz and the Penguins, who ended up hoisting the Stanley Cup. Kunitz really clicked with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal and Bill Guerin. He had seven goals, 11 assists and three power-play scores in 21 games with the Penguins. He then added 14 points (one goal) in 24 playoff games.
Draft Projection: Kunitz seems at home with the Penguins, and he might as well get used to it since he is under contract through 2011-12. It's really going to be interesting to see what he does with a full season in Pittsburgh and with coach Dan Bylsma. Kunitz should be a consistent top-six forward and it shouldn't be hard for him to contribute playing on lines with Crosby and Malkin -- two of the NHL's best playmakers. Fantasy owners probably can get Kunitz as a fourth or fifth Fantasy forward, but he certainly has the potential to be much more.
You can e-mail us your Fantasy Hockey questions to DMFantasyPucks@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Hockey in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
