You have one bad season and you end up an outcast in the Fantasy Hockey world. Tossed aside like yesterday's news. Banished to the bargain bin. Just ask Canadiens center Tomas Plekanec.
The Czech forward was a breakout Fantasy star in 2007-08. He posted career highs in goals (29), assists (40), points (69) and plus-minus (15). Plekanec ended up as the 26th best Fantasy scorer among forwards that season, beating the likes of Olli Jokinen, Daniel Sedin, Anze Kopitar, Marc Savard and even the great Sidney Crosby.
Well, maybe Crosby isn't fair since he played in just 53 games that season, but it helps illustrate our point. Plekanec was a hot commodity when Fantasy Draft Day 2008 rolled around.
We fast forward to Fantasy Draft Day 2009 and Plekanec was selected in just 39 percent of Fantasy leagues. What happened?
The soon-to-be 27-year-old forward endured some rough times in 2008-09. He broke 20 goals for a third straight season, but wasn't as effective passing the puck and finished with just 39 points. He had a minus-9 rating to make matters worse.
It's understandable to see why Fantasy owners felt irritated with Plekanec a year after he severely undercut expectations. However, we remind you that circumstances do change and Plekanec has the chance to once again win Fantasy owners back.
We point out that Plekanec is no longer in the coach's doghouse. Montreal cleaned house over the last several months and that included showing coach Guy Carbonneau the door. Plekanec gets a fresh start under Jacques Martin.
Second, Plekanec no longer has to fight for playing time with Robert Lang and Saku Koivu. Both players are now in the Western Conference and Plekanec owns the second-line center job behind Scott Gomez.
Third, Plekanec has the honor of skating alongside Mike Cammalleri, who signed with Montreal in the offseason after scoring a career-high 39 goals last season with Calgary. Cammalleri's scoring ability could help Plekanec become a 40-assist threat again. Not to forget that Plekanec's other linemate is Andrei Kostitsyn, who has 20-plus goals in two straight seasons, and he might even play at times with Brian Gionta, who was another key free-agent addition.
Plekanec started the season on the right foot with two assists Thursday against the Maple Leafs. He also took five shots. Plekanec had all of eight multi-point games in '08-09 and took five shots or more just 10 times. With a clean slate, Plekanec is already showing he can be aggressive on the offensive end.
We are going to find a lot of gems like Plekanec on the waiver wire in 2009-10. It's essential to making a run at a Fantasy championship. On the flip side, there are some players that are going to fail to meet expectations -- much like Plekanec did a season ago -- and potentially hurt your lineup.
As the 2009-10 Fantasy Hockey season begins, we highlight five players we feel are being undervalued as well as overvalued.
Where's the Love?
Ilya Brygalov, G, Phoenix
Percentage of leagues drafted: 65
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 30
Analysis: Bryzgalov's Fantasy value is severely hurt by the fact he doesn't play for a top contender in Phoenix. But if there is anything we have learned about the Western Conference, it is wide open. Also, Phoenix could turn it around in 2009-10 now that Dave Tippett is behind the bench. No offense to the Great One -- Wayne Gretzky -- but some guys can play the game and others can coach. Tippett can definitely coach. It's still tough to see Bryzgalov disrespected in Fantasy. He has started 60-plus games two straight seasons, as well as totaled at least 26 wins and 1,600 saves. He also has a career save percentage of .912. Bryzgalov has been in the top 15 Fantasy scorers among goalies since 2007-08 and is just outside being in the upper echelon. He is no worse than a high-end No. 2 Fantasy goalie.
Tim Connolly, C, Buffalo
Percentage of leagues drafted: 66
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 27
Analysis: We get it. Connolly's history of injuries is a big negative for Fantasy owners, but you can't ignore his production when he has been on the ice. In 161 games since 2005-06, Connolly has amassed 42 goals and 101 assists. That's almost a point-per-game average. Connolly had a career-high 18 goals last season and had 47 points in 48 games. He played in just six games before Jan. 1, but after that he was healthy the rest of the season and has yet to deal with any nagging issues since preseason camp opened -- knock on wood. As long as Connolly is healthy, he has the skills to be a high-end Fantasy forward.
Petr Sykora, RW, Minnesota
Percentage of leagues drafted: 33
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 11
Analysis: Sykora's low Draft Day appeal had a lot to do with the fact he remained on the free-agent market for most of the offseason before getting an invite to Minnesota's training camp. Within a week he had a one-year deal and a spot among the team's top six forwards. Minnesota recognized the skills. Sykora has managed 20-plus goals in 10 straight seasons and only failed to hit 50 points for the first time in six seasons last year. Sykora dealt with some nagging injuries late last season and it severely affected his on-ice performance. But he finally seems to be back at 100 percent, and Minnesota can't wait to use his scoring skills in their up-tempo offense.
Bryan Little, C, Atlanta
Percentage of leagues drafted: 70
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 24
Analysis: Talk about lack of respect for goal scorers. Little had his breakout campaign in 2008-09 with 31 goals. He tied the likes of Henrik Zetterberg, Bobby Ryan, Shane Doan and Daniel Sedin. All of those players are high-end Fantasy options, but it seems Little is hardly blip on the radar. He wasn't a great all-around player with just 20 assists and a minus-5 rating, but the former 2006 first-round pick isn't done developing. Aside from being just 21-years-old, Little is once again playing for John Anderson -- a coach he thrived under in the minors. Also, he opens the year on a line with Ilya Kovalchuk and Nik Antropov. The scoring chances should be plentiful for Little.
Rene Bourque, RW, Calgary
Percentage of leagues drafted: 43
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 26
Analysis: If you ignore the fact that Bourque played for just 58 games last season, you will see he was quite productive when he was on the ice. Bourque finished the season with a career-high 21 goals and 40 points. He averaged 0.7 points and 0.36 goals per game and also had a goal-conversion rate of 14.1 percent. In his first season with the Flames, he finally got his act together and took his game to the next level after a few disappointing years with the Blackhawks. We might even get a chance for more production from Bourque in 2009-10 now that Cammalleri is in Montreal. Calgary needs to make up for Cammalleri's 39 goals and Bourque is the prime candidate. He tallied two points -- including a goal -- in the opener Thursday against Vancouver and there is even talk he could end up on a line with Jarome Iginla and Olli Jokinen.
Heartbreak City
Jonathan Cheechoo, RW, Ottawa
Percentage of leagues drafted: 53
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 27
Analysis: It's time for a little Fantasy intervention here. Owners need to stop living in the past and realize Cheechoo is no longer an elite scorer. Two straight seasons of sub-par hockey should have Cheechoo in the waiver wire graveyard and not occupying a precious roster spot. A lot of folks are banking on a fresh start in Ottawa to rejuvenate Cheechoo. But he got a fresh start last season under one of the NHL's great offensive minds -- Todd McLellan -- and posted a measly 12 goals. Cheechoo couldn't thrive in a system that capitalized on being a player up, so what can we really expect now that he is part of an aggressive forechecking scheme? Not to forget that he still has to share scoring chances with Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek and Alexei Kovalev.
Cristobal Huet, G, Chicago
Percentage of leagues drafted: 84
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 66
Analysis: We get the allure for Fantasy owners. Huet is the top netminder on one of the best teams in the NHL after Nikolai Khabibulin signed with Edmonton in the offseason. However, Huet's track record isn't that impressive. He has never played more than 52 games in a season and has just one 30-win campaign since entering the NHL in 2002-03. He is now being asked to make at least 60 appearances. It probably does help his appeal that he has no proven NHL goalie pushing him for the starter's job (Corey Crawford and Antti Niemi) and a great defense in front of him. But our biggest concern remains the fact that this is the first time he is the unquestioned starter in his career. Huet has primarily been in a two-goalie system and hasn't needed the mental endurance or physical stamina for the long run. Can he withstand the pressure in 2009-10?
Jamie Langenbrunner, RW, New Jersey
Percentage of leagues drafted: 83
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 54
Analysis: Langenbrunner needs to be applauded for having a career season 14 years into his NHL career in 2008-09. He really caught fire when he was moved to a scoring line with Travis Zajac and Zach Parise. Langebrunner was even NHL Player of the Month in January after totaling nine goals, 17 points and a plus-10 rating in 14 games. His Fantasy value spiked last season and owners didn't forget about it on Draft Day. Unfortunately, we just aren't sure Langenbrunner can put together another 60-point season in 2009-10. On top of the fact he now has a defensive-minded coach (Jacques Lemaire) running the show, Langenbrunner has never put together consecutive 60-point seasons and has just four seasons of 20-plus goals. The odds seem stacked against him for a repeat performance.
Jordan Staal, C, Pittsburgh
Percentage of leagues drafted: 72
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 46
Analysis: There are two things going for Staal -- his family name and the fact he plays for the Penguins. Staal has been a disappointing player since totaling 29 goals as a rookie in 2006. While he did break 20 goals for the second time and totaled a career-best 49 points last season, Staal just doesn't have outstanding numbers for Fantasy. He is a great two-way forward and lives up to the Staal name. But anytime you fail to get reliable production, you run a huge risk in Fantasy. Staal is a great NHL player, but so-so Fantasy option.
Jaroslav Spacek, D, Montreal
Percentage of leagues drafted: 88
Percentage of leagues started Week 1: 71
Analysis: Spacek is another player with a checkered past that gives us doubt that he will be able to live up to the billing. He is coming off a 45-point campaign with the Sabres but has reached 40 points just three times in 10 seasons. He has managed less than 30 points five times. Also, his last two 40-point seasons have come in contract years. He signed a three-year deal in the offseason, so he loses some motivation heading into 2009-10. He also won't have to carry the blue line in Montreal like he did with Buffalo.
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