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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Jakob Silfverberg
Silfverberg Leads Ducks To Win Over Coyotes
Jakob Silfverberg, RW, ANA
12:08 PM
News: Jakob Silfverberg collected a goal and two assists in Tuesday's win over the Coyotes.
Analysis: The points give him 30 total on the year (10 G, 20 A), already well above his previous best of 23 last season. The Ducks forward core is a fairly crowded bunch at the moment, so the 24 year old will probably continue to have a hard time consistently hitting the scoresheet. However, he has fired 144 shots on goal this season, making him an intriguing option in leagues that count that stat.

Jimmy Howard
Wings' Howard To Play Wednesday
Jimmy Howard, G, DET
12:58 AM
News: Jimmy Howard will be in the net for Wednesday's game against the Rangers, MLive.com's Ansar Khan reports.
Analysis: Jimmy Howard has alternated starts with backup Jonas Gustavsson over the last four games, but he should still be viewed as the Red Wings' unquestioned No. 1 goalie. He's graded out as an above-average netminder this season with a 2.23 GAA and .917 save percentage, but he could struggle to uphold those numbers against a potent Rangers attack that ranks second in the league in scoring.

Alec Martinez
Kings' Martinez Hopes To Resume Skating This Week
Alec Martinez, D, LA
12:45 AM
News: The Kings are hopeful that Alec Martinez (concussion) will be able to resume skating at some point later this week, Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider reports.
Analysis: Alec Martinez, who will miss his 11th straight game Tuesday against the Oilers, is evidently showing some signs of progress in his recovery from concussion-like symptoms, but until he gets back on the ice, a return from IR shouldn't be viewed as imminent. The 27-year-old's absence prompted the Kings to address the blue line at the trade deadline, with the team reeling in Andrej Sekera from the Hurricanes last week.

Gregory Campbell
Bruins' Campbell Iffy For Thursday
Gregory Campbell, C, BOS
12:40 AM
News: Gregory Campbell (upper body) did not absorb contact at Tuesday's practice.
Analysis: Gregory Campbell remains iffy for Thursday's game against the Flames, though with the Bruins having added forwards Brett Connolly and Maxime Talbot at the NHL trade deadline, the team can probably afford to not rush Campbell back.

Tyler Kennedy
Isles' Kennedy Will Start On Second Line
Tyler Kennedy, C, NYI
12:36 AM
News: Tyler Kennedy will make his debut with the Islanders during Tuesday's game against the Stars as a member of the second line, according to the Islanders' official web site.
Analysis: Tyler Kennedy probably won't remain on the second line for long. With the Islanders tending to a few injuries, they need Ryan Strome to center the third line, enabling Kennedy to grab a spot on a trio with Michael Grabner and Frans Nielsen. Once either Kyle Okposo or Mikhail Grabovski returns from IR, look for Kennedy to slide into a bottom-six role.

Ben Scrivens
Oilers To Start Scrivens On Tuesday
Ben Scrivens, G, EDM
12:34 AM
News: Ben Scrivens will be in the crease for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Gregor of OilersNation.com reports.
Analysis: Ben Scrivens will be sure to rise to the occasion for a game against his former team, but it's doubtful that his team will do much to help him out. An already porous Oilers squad became a little more suspect Monday by trading away Jeff Petry, leaving the team quite depleted in front of Scrivens. Of course, his offense hasn't been doing much of late either for Scrivens, who has given up two or fewer goals in three consecutive games but only has one win to show for it.

Kevin Bieksa
Canucks' Bieksa Remains Sidelined
Kevin Bieksa, D, VAN
12:29 AM
News: Coach Willie Desjardins indicated Tuesday that Kevin Bieksa (hand) is at least a week away from a return to action, Jon Abbott of tsnradiovancouver.ca reports.
Analysis: Such a timetable effective rules Kevin Bieksa out for at least the Canucks' next four games and a return to action March 12 against the Kings is hardly a lock for the blueliner, who last suited up Jan. 20.

Lubomir Visnovsky
Isles' Visnovsky Back In The Lineup
Lubomir Visnovsky, D, NYI
12:28 AM
News: Lubomir Visnovsky will draw back into the lineup Tuesday for the Islanders, according to Newsday's Arthur Staple.
Analysis: Coach Jack Capuano has been playing musical chairs between Lubomir Visnovsky and Brian Strait and Tuesday Strait was left without a chair when the music stops.

Jared Spurgeon
Wild's Spurgeon Gets In Skate Tuesday
Jared Spurgeon, D, MIN
12:11 AM
News: Jared Spurgeon (head) participated in Tuesday's morning skate, Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Analysis: Jared Spurgeon didn't appear to be facing any limitations during the session and is considered a possibility to play Thursday against the Capitals. However, with the Wild not holding practice Wednesday and thus not being able to make another assessment of Spurgeon's condition, the blueliner might have to wait until the weekend to get back in the lineup.

Matt Cooke
Wild's Cooke Resumes Skating
Matt Cooke, LW, MIN
12:08 AM
News: Matt Cooke (sports hernia) has been able to skate for the last week, Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Analysis: Despite his involvement on the ice, Matt Cooke isn't expected to resume practicing in the near future. It looks like a mid-March return is a best-case scenario for the winger, but it seems more likely that his timetable will extend beyond that.

 
 
 
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