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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Cam Talbot
Oilers' Talbot Expects Battle For Starting Job
Cam Talbot, G, EDM
7/30/2015
News: Cam Talbot expects to battle for the starting job in training camp, according to the Edmonton Journal.
Analysis: One would think that Cam Talbot is just taking the high road here. Unless he performs miserably in camp he should be the starting goaltender once the season opens. He won't have anywhere near the defense playing in front of him that he had with the Rangers, so there will be off nights, but he's still better and offers much more upside than any other goaltender on the roster.

Alex Galchenyuk
Habs' Galchenyuk Re-Signs On Two-Year Deal
Alex Galchenyuk, C, MON
7/30/2015
News: Alex Galchenyuk re-signed to a two-year, $5.6 million deal with the Canadiens on Thursday, ESPN reports.
Analysis: Alex Galchenyuk will return to the Canadiens on a contract paying him an average of $2.8 million per year. During the 2014-15 season, he played in 80 games for the Canadiens, finishing with 20 goals and 26 assists, both of which were career highs for the forward. The former third overall pick will join the likes of David Desharnais and Lars Eller as depth at center behind Tomas Plekanec. He also could see some time on the wing behind Max Pacioretty.

Jakub Voracek
Voracek Inks Eight-Year Extension With Flyers
Jakub Voracek, RW, PHI
7/30/2015
News: Jakub Voracek signed an eight-year, $66 million contract extension with the Flyers on Thursday, Frank Seravalli of the Philadelphia Daily News reports.
Analysis: It isn't surprising that the Flyers opted to lock Jakub Voracek up long-term after his performance in 2014-15. He exploded last season, racking up a career-best 81 points (22 goals, 59 assists), good for fifth best in the NHL. While fantasy owners shouldn't expect the 25-year-old winger to top 80 points year in and year out, if he can continue to stay healthy, he should continue to be a top fantasy commodity for years to come. Voracek will return to his role on the Flyers' top-line and power play unit in 2015-16.

Brandon Gormley
Gormley Inks One-Year Deal With Coyotes
Brandon Gormley, D, ARI
7/30/2015
News: Brandon Gormley signed a one-year, two-way contract with the Coyotes on Thursday, Craig Morgan of FOX Sports Arizona reports.
Analysis: Brandon Gormley suited up for 27 games with the Coyotes in 2014-15, managing to tally four points (two goals, two assists) in those contests. He fared a little better in the AHL, registering 10 points (three goals, seven assists) in 23 games with AHL Portland. He will get a chance to compete for a roster spot with the Coyotes in training camp.

Viktor Arvidsson
Preds' Prospect Arvidsson Hoping To Crack Roster
Viktor Arvidsson, RW, NSH
7/29/2015
News: Viktor Arvidsson could crack the Predators' roster this upcoming season, according to the Tennessean's Adam Vignan.
Analysis: In his first full season in the AHL, Viktor Arvidsson led the Milwaukee Admirals last year with 55 points, and also led the entire league with 272 shots on goal. If Arvidsson can secure himself a roster spot with the Preds, he could flourish under coach Peter Laviolette's uptempo, attacking system and provide the team some scoring depth. In deeper fantasy formats, Arvidsson is one player to keep an eye on.

Oliver Kylington
Flames' Kylington To Play In North America in 2015
Oliver Kylington, D, CGY
7/29/2015
News: Oliver Kylington will play in North America in 2015, Roger Millions of Sportsnet Calgary reports.
Analysis: The defenseman's team in Sweden allowed him to get his path to the NHL started this season, which is good news for both Oliver Kylington and the Flames. Calgary will likely let its second-round pick grow his game in the minors for a while, especially with its current depth on the blue line. Kylington has an abundance of hockey talent, but needs to put it all together to be a standout player.

Dainius Zubrus
Devils Release Veteran Winger Zubrus
Dainius Zubrus, RW, NJ
7/29/2015
News: The Devils terminated Dainius Zubrus' contract Wednesday, making him an unrestricted free agent, Frank Seravalli of TSN.ca reports.
Analysis: Dainius Zubrus had never been much of a top-flight offensive producer in his eight seasons in a Devils uniform, but he saw his scoring output completely fall off a cliff in 2014-15, as he netted just four goals and 10 points across 74 games. With the Devils looking to give some younger players an opportunity in their forward ranks and Zubrus' ice time likely to decline even further in the coming season, the team decided it wasn't worthwhile to keep him around at his $3.1 million cap hit. The 37-year-old could conceivably latch on in a depth role with another club, but no matter where he ultimately lands, an ascension to fantasy relevance probably isn't in the cards.

David Steckel
Ex-Duck Steckel Inks Deal With German Club
David Steckel, C, ANA
7/29/2015
News: David Steckel signed a contract Wednesday with the Nurnberg Ice Tigers of the German Elite League.
Analysis: The 33-year-old served as a depth forward for the Ducks at AHL Norfolk last season, producing seven goals and 23 points in 76 games. David Steckel is a veteran of 425 games, but considering his age and his impending move to Europe, we may have seen the last of him in North America.

Brooks Orpik
Caps' Orpik Undergoes Wrist Surgery
Brooks Orpik, D, WAS
7/28/2015
News: Brooks Orpik underwent a successful surgery on his wrist on Tuesday.
Analysis: Brooks Orpik is expected to resume full workout activities in approximately two weeks, and should be ready to go by the time the puck drops for the Capitals' regular season opener. It sounds as though the veteran defender isn't in danger of missing any time once the season gets underway, but the Capitals should provide an update on his status closer to the start of the regular season. Orpik doesn't offer much in the way of offensive upside, but led all defensemen with 306 hits and ranked fourth with 192 blocked shots.

Sven Baertschi
Baertschi Inks One-Year Deal With Canucks
Sven Baertschi, LW, VAN
7/28/2015
News: Sven Baertschi signed a one-year (one-way), $900,000 contract with the Canucks on Tuesday, Sportsnet's Irfaan Gaffar reports.
Analysis: Sven Baertschi played well with AHL Utica last season, registering 40 points (15 goals, 25 assists) in 51 games with the team. The 22-year old also suited up for 18 regular season games at the NHL level in 2014-15, tallying six points (two goals, four assists) in those contests. He will get a chance to compete for a roster spot with the big club in training camp. If Baertschi is able to lock down a roster spot with the Canucks in training camp, he will likely slot into a bottom-six role with the team.

 
 
 
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