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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Sergei Bobrovsky
Jackets' Bobrovsky Makes 39 Saves In Win
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, CLB
2:27 AM
News: Sergei Bobrovsky was outstanding Saturday against Chicago, stopping 39 of 41 shots in regulation, before denying eight of nine Blackhawks' shooters in the shootout for a 3-2 victory.
Analysis: After allowing five goals in a loss to Washington Thursday, Sergei Bobrovsky got right back on track Saturday, shutting down a Blackhawks team that had won 10 of their last 11 games. The 26-year-old has now won eight of his last nine game, with Thursday's loss to Washington marking the only time in December the Russian has allowed more than three goals in a game. He's an automatic roll every night he gets the call.

Corey Crawford
Hawks' Crawford Suffers Loss In Return To Action
Corey Crawford, G, CHI
2:13 AM
News: Corey Crawford returned to action Saturday, stopping 17 of 19 shots in regulation, before losing in a shootout to the Blue Jackets.
Analysis: It wasn't a bad outing for Corey Crawford, who stood out in the shootout, allowing only two goals on nine attempts. The 29-year-old is now 12-5-2 on the season with a .927 save percentage and 1.87 GAA. Now that he's healthy, Crawford needs to be in your lineup every night he's in action, as the Blackhawks are one of the league's best teams, sitting second in the Western Conference with 46 points.

Derick Brassard
Rangers' Brassard Will Play Saturday
Derick Brassard, C, NYR
12:52 AM
News: Derick Brassard (illness) will play Saturday against the Hurricanes, Andrew Gross of The Record reports.
Analysis: Coach Alain Vigneault signed off on Derick Brassard's return after he was able to take part in the team's morning skate. The center missed the Rangers' last two contests with the mumps virus.

Ryan Carter
Wild Activate Carter (Upper Body)
Ryan Carter, C, MIN
12:50 AM
News: Ryan Carter (upper body) was activated from injured reserve Saturday, Rachel Blount of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Analysis: After missing the Wild's previous three games, Ryan Carter was cleared to return after practicing Friday. He'll be reinserted on the fourth line for Saturday's game against the Predators.

Jonathan Quick
Kings Tap Quick For Saturday Start
Jonathan Quick, G, LA
12:48 AM
News: Jonathan Quick led the Kings on to the ice for pregame warmups and will thus get the start Saturday against the Coyotes, Elliott Teaford of the Los Angeles Daily News reports.
Analysis: Jonathan Quick will likely be a heavy favorite to come away with the victory against a Coyotes squad that has lost eight of its last 10 games, with its lone two wins during that stretch coming against the sad-sack Oilers. The netminder hasn't been particularly sharp lately, so this should represent a good bounce-back opportunity for him.

Matt Cooke
Wild's Cooke (Hip) Activated For Saturday's Game
Matt Cooke, LW, MIN
12:44 AM
News: Matt Cooke (hip) was activated from injured reserve Saturday and will suit up against the Predators, Rachel Blount of the Minneapolis Stat Tribune reports.
Analysis: He'll replace Justin Fontaine in the lineup, joining Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter on the Wild's third line. Matt Cooke last played on Oct. 28 before missing the last 22 games with a hip flexor.

Jonas Hiller
Flames To Start Hiller Saturday
Jonas Hiller, G, CGY
12:31 AM
News: Jonas Hiller will get the start in net Saturday, Scott Cruickshank of the Calgary Herald reports.
Analysis: Jonas Hiller and the Flames have hit the skids in December, as Calgary has lost seven straight and Hiller has lost six in a row. Until they right the ship, Hiller should be avoided, especially with his mates giving him a grand total of four goals combined in his last four outings.

Jake Allen
Allen, Blues Looking For Road Victory
Jake Allen, G, STL
12:16 AM
News: Jake Allen will be between the pipes Saturday against the Sharks, Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Analysis: Things have started to turn ugly for Jake Allen here in December, despite the fact that he's won each of his last three starts. He's posted a horrid .884 save percentage in five outings this month, which has resulted in him yielding more work to Martin Brodeur than anticipated. Still, with a powerful offense and strong defense supporting him, the wins should keep coming rather steadily for the struggling netminder.

Antti Niemi
Sharks' Niemi To Take Aim At Seventh Straight Win
Antti Niemi, G, SJ
12:13 AM
News: Antti Niemi will be between the pipes Saturday night against the Blues, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area reports.
Analysis: Antti Niemi will take aim at his seventh straight victory Saturday, though he hasn't been as consistently sharp as the winning streak would suggest. During that stretch, he's surrendered three goals or more on three occasions, but did manage to capture his second shutout of the season. He'll have his work cut out for him against the Blues, who rank sixth in the NHL in goals and fifth in shot attempts per game.

Robin Lehner
Sens' Lehner: 25 Saves In Loss
Robin Lehner, G, OTT
12/20/2014
News: Robin Lehner made 25 saves Saturday in a 4-1 loss to Montreal.
Analysis: He generally held up his side of the bargain, but his teammates didn't -- they barely mustered a chance on two power plays in the third. He is 1-2-1 in his last four starts. As good as he is, he cannot carry a team (yet). Don't take the bait -- keep him benched.

 
 
 
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