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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Mike Green
Red Wings, Green Reach Three-Year Deal
Mike Green, D, WAS
7/2/2015
News: Mike Green signed a three-year, $18 million contract with the Red Wings on Thursday, ESPN.com's Pierre LeBrun reports.
Analysis: In need of some more offensive ability from the right side of their defense, the Red Wings decided to make a run at Mike Green, who is perhaps the most accomplished scorer of all the free-agent blueliners. Though injuries have slowed his production in recent years, Green stayed relatively healthy with the Capitals in 2014-15, playing 72 games and tallying 10 goals and 45 points. He saw his ice time decline in Washington as a result of last summer's signing of Matt Niskanen, but the Red Wings should have no trouble clearing out a regular role for Green on their second pairing. He's also a candidate to see time on the second-unit power play, which should help aid him to another 40-point season.

Richard Bachman
Canucks Sign Bachman
Richard Bachman, G, EDM
7/2/2015
News: The Canucks signed Richard Bachman to a two-year deal on Wednesday, NHL.com reports.
Analysis: Richard Bachman, who went 3-2-0 with a 2.84 GAA and .911 save percentage in seven games with the Oilers last season, gives the Canucks some added netminding depth (to go along with Jacob Markstrom ) behind starter Ryan Miller.

Alex Burmistrov
Former First-Rounder Burmistrov Returning To Jets
Alex Burmistrov, C, WPG
7/2/2015
News: Alex Burmistrov signed a two-year, $3.1 million contract with the Jets on Wednesday, Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports.
Analysis: Alex Burmistrov, the former No. 8 overall pick by the Jets in 2010 when the franchise was still located in Atlanta, will make his return to North America after spending the past two seasons with Kazan Ak-Bars of the KHL. The 23-year-old bolted for Russia in the summer of 2013 due in part to his lack of harmony with coach Claude Noel, but with Paul Maurice since taking over the helm for the Jets, it appears any discord has dissipated. Burmistrov never turned in outstanding production during his previous time in the minors or in the NHL, but now that's a little older, he could be a potential second- or third-line asset for the Jets.

Viktor Tikhonov
Tikhonov Leaves KHL For Blackhawks
Viktor Tikhonov, LW, ARI
7/2/2015
News: Viktor Tikhonov signed a one-year, $1.04 million contract with the Blackhawks on Wednesday, The Hockey News reports.
Analysis: After suiting up for St. Petersburg in the KHL for the last four seasons, Viktor Tikhonov was apparently quite eager to test himself in North America, as he reportedly took a $2 million pay cut to leave Russia. With the Blackhawks desperate to create cap room for the start of the coming season, the low-cost signing Tikhonov could be exactly what they need to create salary relief. Despite his minimal price, Tikhonov isn't completely bereft of value, as he was a former first-round selection by the Coyotes in 2008 and showed some scoring ability with St. Petersburg last season, supplying eight goals and 16 assists in 49 games. The Blackhawks will take a long look at him during training camp and see where he fits in best.

Matt Lindblad
Rangers Sign Lindblad
Matt Lindblad, C, BOS
7/2/2015
News: The Rangers signed Matt Lindblad on Wednesday, the Boston Herald reports.
Analysis: The 25-year-old Matt Lindblad, who notched 22 points in 47 games for AHL Providence last season, gives the Rangers' organization added forward depth, but he remains a break or two from the fantasy radar in his new playing context.

David Warsofsky
Warsofsky Signs With Pittsburgh
David Warsofsky, D, BOS
7/2/2015
News: David Warsofsky signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Penguins on Wednesday, the Boston Herald reports.
Analysis: The smallish David Warsofsky, who recorded 15 points in 40 games for AHL Providence this past season, brings good mobility to the table, though ultimately his fantasy utility hinges on whether or not he sees power play duty if/when he sees action with the Penguins. If so, he carries some sleeper value in deeper formats.

John Moore
Devils Give Moore Three-Year Deal
John Moore, D, ARI
7/2/2015
News: John Moore signed a three-year, $5 million contract with the Devils on Wednesday, Rich Chere of the Newark Star-Ledger reports.
Analysis: After he was surprisingly non-tendered by the Coyotes on Monday, John Moore didn't take long to latch on with a new team in unrestricted free agency. The 24-year-old Moore offers a left-handed shot and ideal size (6-foot-3, 202 pounds) for a Devils defense that already has a good young core in place. The blueliner tallied two goals and 11 points across 57 games with the Rangers and Coyotes last season.

Greg Pateryn
Habs Extend Pateryn
Greg Pateryn, D, MON
7/2/2015
News: Greg Pateryn signed a two-year contract extension with the Canadiens on Wednesday, CTV Montreal reports.
Analysis: "Greg is a young defenceman who has developed very well. He enjoys the physical play and brings more depth to our defensive group," GM Marc Bergevin noted of the blueliner. In 17 regular season games with the Canadiens this past season, Greg Pateryn did not record a point, though the 25-year-old defender did manage three helpers in seven playoff games.

Barret Jackman
Preds Sign Jackman To Two-Year Deal
Barret Jackman, D, STL
7/2/2015
News: Barret Jackman signed a two-year, $4 million contract with the Predators on Wednesday, Adam Vingan of The Tennessean reports.
Analysis: After 12 years in St. Louis, Barret Jackman will join another franchise for the first time in his career. As was the case during his final few seasons with the Blues, Jackman will be suiting up for one of the league's deeper defensemen ranks, as he'll join a Predators roster that includes All-Stars Shea Weber and Roman Josi and promising youngsters Ryan Ellis and Seth Jones. Those four players figure to shoulder most of the offensive burden from the blue line, leaving Jackman to do what he does best -- agitating opposing forwards and providing sound decision-making in front of his own net.

P.A. Parenteau
Parenteau Signs With Leafs
P.A. Parenteau, RW, MON
7/2/2015
News: The Maple Leafs signed P.A. Parenteau to a one-year deal on Wednesday, TSN.ca reports.
Analysis: P.A. Parenteau, whose contract was bought out by the Habs, notched 22 points in 56 games for Montreal last season. He'll look to bounce back with the Leafs and if he secures a more prominent role with his new team -- a plausible outcome -- the 32-year-old forward is capable of a rebound in 2015-16.

 
 
 
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