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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Teuvo Teravainen
Hawks' Teravainen Back In Lineup For Game 4
Teuvo Teravainen, LW, CHI
1:42 PM
News: Teuvo Teravainen, who was a healthy scratch for Game 3 in the Stanley Cup Western Conference Finals, will be in the lineup for Game 4 against the Duck, ESPN Chicago reports.
Analysis: Both Teuvo Teravainen and Antoine Vermette were healthy scratches for Game 3. The lack of offense in the 2-1 loss in Game 3 gave Hawks' coach Joel Quenneville a change of mind for Game 4. Teravainen and Vermette rejoined Patrick Sharp on the Blackhawks' third line during the team's morning skate at the United Center on Saturday.

Antoine Vermette
Hawks' Vermette Back In Lineup For Game 4
Antoine Vermette, C, CHI
1:39 PM
News: Antoine Vermette, who was a healthy scratch for Game 3 in the Stanley Cup Western Conference Finals, will be in the lineup for Game 4 on Saturday night against the Ducks, ESPN Chicago reports.
Analysis: Both Antoine Vermette and Teuvo Teravainen were healthy scratches for Game 3. The lack of offense in the 2-1 loss in Game 3 gave Hawks' coach Joel Quenneville a change of mind for Game 4. Teravainen and Vermette rejoined Patrick Sharp on the Blackhawks' third line during the team's morning skate at the United Center on Saturday.

Derick Brassard
Rangers' Brassard Earns Power-Play Assist
Derick Brassard, C, NYR
10:38 AM
News: Derick Brassard picked up a power-play assist in Friday's Game 4 victory over the Lightning.
Analysis: Derick Brassard has been a steady producer for the Rangers throughout their playoff run, never going more than one game without recording a point. Collectively, he's accrued six goals and five assists across 16 contests and three rounds, which has made him a serviceable selection for those in postseason pools.

Carl Hagelin
Rangers' Hagelin Gathers Assist In Game 4
Carl Hagelin, LW, NYR
10:36 AM
News: Carl Hagelin was credited with an assist on Rick Nash's first-period goal in Friday's 5-1 triumph over the Lightning.
Analysis: Carl Hagelin had been held off the score sheet in the Rangers' previous nine games before collecting the helper Friday. The elusive winger can occasionally present matchup problems for the opposition, but that likely won't be the case often against the Lightning, who don't count team speed as one of their weaknesses.

Ben Bishop
Bolts' Coach: Benching Bishop Would Be
Ben Bishop, G, TB
10:28 AM
News: Lightning coach Jon Cooper said it would be "asinine" to bench Ben Bishop for Sunday's Game 5 against the Rangers, Tom Gulitti of The Record reports.
Analysis: Giving up five goals in Friday's loss qualified as a disappointment for Ben Bishop, but there was little chance the Lightning would turn to the untested Andrei Vasilevskiy with the series knotted at 2-2. This should be all the confirmation anyone needs that Bishop will be between the pipes Sunday.

Oscar Dansk
Jackets Sending Dansk Back To Sweden
Oscar Dansk, G, CLB
6:38 AM
News: Oscar Dansk will play for newly promoted Rogle in the SHL next season rather than returning to the AHL, the Columbus Dispatch reports. "We wanted to make sure he gets to a place where he can play and get his career back on track," Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen said.
Analysis: The young goaltender struggled in his first season in North America, posting a 3.57 GAA and .880 save percentage in 21 games for AHL Springfield and a 3.73 GAA and .889 save percentage in 11 games for ECHL Kalamazoo. Oscar Dansk still has a potentially bright future, but he'll need to rebuild his confidence back at home before the Jackets give him another shot on their side of the pond.

Steven Stamkos
Bolts' Stamkos Stays Hot In Game 4 Loss
Steven Stamkos, C, TB
1:11 AM
News: Steven Stamkos stayed hot Friday, scoring for the third straight game in a Game 4 loss to the Rangers.
Analysis: While it was another strong performance from Steven Stamkos, the Bolts fell 5-1 to the Rangers in the game, bringing their best-of-seven series to a 2-2 tie. The 25-year-old has now scored in five of his last six games and is up to 15 points in the playoffs -- fifth most in the NHL. He's fired four shots on goal in back-to-back outings and is the first Lightning player to score in 3 straight playoff games since Sean Bergenheim did so in 2011. While Stammer had a slow start to the postseason, he's in full throttle now and will play a key part in determining whether Tampa Bay can advance onto the Stanley Cup Final.

Michael Keranen
Wild, Keranen Agree To One-Year Deal
Michael Keranen, LW, MIN
12:21 AM
News: Karanen agreed to a one-year, two-way deal with the Wild on Friday, Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Analysis: Michael Keranen appeared in 70 games for AHL Iowa this season, registering 10 goals and 27 assists to go with a minus-12 rating. He'll look to crack the Wild's roster at some point in 2015-16.

Kevin Klein
Rangers' Klein Assists Twice In Game 4 Win
Kevin Klein, D, NYR
5/22/2015
News: Kevin Klein dished out two helpers, went plus-2, collected two PIM, blocked two shots and laid four hits in Friday's Game 4 victory over the Lightning.
Analysis: That's a lot of work for just 17:43 on the ice. It's Kevin Klein's first multi-point game of these playoffs, which started on a delay for him due to a broken arm. We've yet to see Klein find twine in the postseason after he did so nine times in 65 regular-season games, but he's been getting involved with the offense regularly, so it wouldn't be a surprise if the veteran were to find his way onto the scoresheet again soon.

Kevin Hayes
Rangers' Hayes Providing Steady Offense
Kevin Hayes, RW, NYR
5/22/2015
News: Kevin Hayes assisted on both of Rick Nash's goals -- one on the power play -- Friday as the Rangers took Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final from the Lightning by a 5-1 tally.
Analysis: Kevin Hayes has been providing consistent offense since Game 7 against Washington -- he scored a goal in that one, keying a run of five points in five games. The young forward has looked lost at times in these playoffs, but he generates takeaways and offense brilliantly, and the fact that he was able to help Nash wake up Friday is quite promising.

 
 
 
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