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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Corey Perry
Perry Projects As Top Option In Multicategory Scoring
Corey Perry, RW, ANA
8:50 AM
News: Corey Perry is projected to be a top performer when it comes to covering fantasy categories for the Ducks and fantasy owners alike this coming season, NHL.com reports.
Analysis: Over his past four seasons, the versatile winger is clutch in formats using multiple categories. 145 goals, 276 points, 368 PIMS, and a plus 44. He puts up stellar stats in other areas as well. Last season, 280 shots on goal, 18 power play points, nine game winning goals and 81 hits. Point is, Corey Perry is a top option in fantasy drafts and special in category-driven formats.

Olli Maatta
Pens' Maatta Limited As Camp Opens
Olli Maatta, D, PIT
8:23 AM
News: Olli Maatta will take limited contact at Thursday's practice.
Analysis: The Penguins won't let Olli Maatta go full bore right away as he continues to recover from surgery, but the fact that he's on the ice suggests his recovery is going swimmingly. Once thought to be at risk of missing the start of the season, Maatta appears more likely than not to be in the lineup for the Penguins' Oct. 9 opener against the Ducks.

Sidney Crosby
Pens' Crosby's Health Not A Sure Thing
Sidney Crosby, C, PIT
8:20 AM
News: Sidney Crosby will miss the beginning of training camp with an undisclosed injury, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Analysis: Sidney Crosby played with an injured wrist toward the end of last season and it's also possible he's suffering from another ailment such as a shoulder injury. It appears he'll be able to play in the regular season, but there's an added measure of risk with Crosby after he decided against summer wrist surgery and the additional mystery injury.

Ryan Johansen
Jackets' Johansen Leaves Camp Without Contract
Ryan Johansen, C, CLB
8:07 AM
News: Ryan Johansen has flown home to Vancouver after last-minute talks between the Blue Jackets and his agent failed to produce a contract agreement, the Columbus Dispatch reports.
Analysis: Club president John Davidson took the unusual step of publicly announcing the various contracts Ryan Johansen had been offered and turned down, which ranged from a two-year, $6 million deal to eight years and $46 million, while agent Kurt Overhardt is said to be seeking a two-year, $13 million deal as a 'bridge' contract to take the RFA into his arbitration years. With the two sides still so far apart, Johansen could be facing a lengthy absence from training camp, so unless things change in a hurry, you'll need to start dropping Johansen on your cheat sheets.

Evgeni Malkin
Pens' Malkin Out For Early Part Of Camp
Evgeni Malkin, C, PIT
8:01 AM
News: Evgeni Malkin will be held out of the early stages of training camp after he suffered an undisclosed injury prior to camp.
Analysis: Sidney Crosby is similarly being held out in the early going, so it's more than likely just the case where the organization wants to keep its two stars fresh for the start of the regular season. Evgeni Malkin's draft stock shouldn't be affected by the injury, unless news surfaces that the issue is more severe than the Penguins are letting on. The 28-year-old will have to adjust to new coach Mike Johnston's preferred system of using his forwards in pairs rather than lines, but he's still poised to deliver high-end production from the center spot.

Ryane Clowe
Devils' Clowe Cleared For Camp
Ryane Clowe, LW, NJ
7:52 AM
News: Ryane Clowe (concussion) has been cleared for full participation in training camp, Rich Chere of the Newark Star-Ledger reports.
Analysis: Ryane Clowe doesn't expect to be thrown into preseason action right away, but the fact that he'll be able to more or less fully participate in training camp has to be a relief for the Devils, who will take a $4.85 million cap hit on the forward for the next three seasons. Still, there's no guarantee Clowe can return to the 40-point per season level, especially while he remains at extreme risk for suffering another debilitating concussion.

Pascal Dupuis
Pens' Dupuis Not Taking Contact Initially
Pascal Dupuis, RW, PIT
7:47 AM
News: Pascal Dupuis won't take contact during the initial stages of training camp, Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Analysis: Though it was previously suggested that Pascal Dupuis wouldn't face any limitations entering camp, he's just a little bit behind schedule right now. He plans to begin taking contact in about a week, giving him plenty of time to get himself ready for the start of the regular season. The health of Dupuis' knee is less of a concern to fantasy players than in what capacity he might be used this season. New coach Mike Johnston has stated a preference of deploying his skaters in pairs rather than units, suggesting duty with Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby no longer awaits for Dupuis.

Ilya Bryzgalov
Bryzgalov Agrees To Tryout Offer with Wild
Ilya Bryzgalov, G, MIN
7:40 AM
News: Ilya Bryzgalov agreed to a professional tryout offer with the Wild on Wednesday, Chad Graff of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
Analysis: Ilya Bryzgalov will have a good chance at sticking with the Wild so long as restricted free agent Darcy Kuemper remains unsigned, which could possibility carry over until the start of the regular season. Though Bryzgalov has fallen on hard times since signing his much-maligned megadeal with the Flyers a few years ago, he was superb during his 12-game run with the Wild late last season, going 7-1-3 with a 2.12 GAA and three shutouts. If he does end up opening the season with the Wild, it would likely be in a backup capacity to Niklas Backstrom.

Anthony Mantha
Wings' Mantha Out 6-8 Weeks With Leg Fracture
Anthony Mantha, RW, DET
7:27 AM
News: Anthony Mantha sustained a fractured right tibia during this week's NHL Prospect Tournament and will be out six-to-eight weeks, MLive.com's Ansar Khan reports.
Analysis: Red Wings GM Ken Holland flippantly described Anthony Mantha as "banged up" just a day earlier as if to suggest the injury wasn't serious, but evidently, that wasn't the case. After putting on an impressive display in the tournament, Mantha was expected to have an outside chance at cracking the opening night roster. Instead, he'll likely have to return to the QMJHL once he's healthy. He could make his debut with the big club at some point in the second half.

Boyd Gordon
Oilers' Gordon In Line To Serve As No. 3 Center
Boyd Gordon, C, EDM
12:44 AM
News: Boyd Gordon is expected to serve as the Oilers' No. 3 center to begin the season, ESPN.com's Pierre LeBrun reports.
Analysis: Though filling the hole at the second-line center spot is the more pressing need for the Oilers, it appears that rookie Leon Draisaitl or Mark Arcobello will be given the opportunity to do so before Boyd Gordon does. Gordon is serviceable two-way depth center for the Oilers, but he doesn't offer enough offensive upside to keep up with the likes of David Perron and Nail Yakupov on the wings. Look for Gordon to finish with another season where he hovers around the 20-point mark.

 
 
 
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