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2013 Draft Prep: Draft Day busts

by | Rotowire.com
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As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and then there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit.

Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on or because of the personnel changes on the team.

Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory -- you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's stats.

Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies who aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Bryan Little, C, Jets: Little had a fairly solid year last season in Winnipeg, tallying 24 goals and 22 assists, and looked to be a member of the Jets' second line. The acquisition of Olli Jokinen pushes him down a notch, plus Alex Burmistrov being a year older and Marc Scheifele possibly joining the Jets also hurt him. Little won't fade to oblivion, but his Fantasy impact has taken a hit.

Rich Peverley, W, Bruins: Peverley racked up 11 goals and 42 points to go along with a plus-20 rating last season in his injury-shortened 57-game campaign. He slots in as a third-liner, but when injuries hit the Bruins will not hesitate to have him roll with one of the team's top two lines. The latter part of the prior sentence is the key, because if the Bruins stay relatively healthy, Peverley loses much of his Fantasy value.

Fedor Tyutin, D, Blue Jackets: Tyutin had another typical year in Columbus, filling a key role on the power play while scoring 20-plus points. This year, the Blue Jackets have decent depth on the blue line with James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson and Nikita Nikitin along with John Moore, Adrian Aucoin and Tim Erixon. What that means is that Tyutin, when he is on the ice, may need to focus more on defense, limiting his output.

Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Oilers: This one is a tough call, as I can just as easily see Khabibulin end up on the "sleepers" side of the ledger. That said, all signs point to Devan Dubnyk being the choice to see most of the time between the pipes for an improving Oilers team, relegating the Bulin Wall to back-up duty. In addition, Khabibulin is still working his way back from hip/groin issues, which doesn't bode well for success in a shortened, compressed schedule.

Career-Year Busts

Adam Henrique, C, Devils: Henrique ends up as a bust mainly due to his uncertain status because of an injury. Henrique underwent surgery last month to reattach a torn UCL in his left thumb, and will now need to regain his full range of motion after getting the cast removed. He had the cast removed this week but will require three and a half to four weeks of rehab before he can resume playing, meaning he may not be back until sometime in early February.

Radim Vrbata, W, Coyotes: Vrbata was coming off good seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11 before exploding with 35 goals and 27 assists last season. Part of that rise was fueled by a 15.1 percent shooting percentage along with a bump of more than two minutes nightly of ice time. While the bottom will not fall out on Vrbata, to expect a repeat at 31, especially with Ray Whitney no longer on a line with him in the desert, might be a bit of a stretch.

Jason Garrison, D, Canucks: Garrison rode a career-year performance -- 16 goals, 17 assists -- into a monstrous six-year, $27.6 million deal from the Canucks. The pressure of playing in Vancouver is already big, let alone trying to live up to the expectations created by that big deal. In addition, the Canucks have several solid defensemen, so while Garrison may have a good year it won't be enough to live up to that contract. If Garrison gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be surprising to hear calls for Vancouver to use one of their two buyouts before the 2013-14 season on him.

Brian Elliott, G, Blues: Elliott took advantage of a poor October by Jaroslav Halak to earn a time-share in net in St. Louis. Elliott led the NHL in save percentage and goals-against average, earning a two-year extension in the process. Despite the brilliant numbers, Halak is still the No. 1 netminder for the Blues, and if he plays like he did after that poor opening month, he -- and not Elliott -- should earn the lion's share of time between the pipes.

Big Name Busts

Mikko Koivu, C, Wild: Like with any big-name acquisition, everyone expects that player's linemate to experience a substantial rise in points. In this case, it's Koivu following Minnesota's signing of Zach Parise. While Koivu will skate on a line with Parise, to expect a meteoric rise in points, especially with a shortened training camp, might be a bit of a stretch. Koivu should have a good year, but don't draft him expecting point-per-game production.

Chris Kreider, W, Rangers: I am very high on Kreider. The reason for him appearing in this column is due to the likelihood of expectations for him being way out of whack after his solid playoff performance last spring. Kreider should produce nicely playing on the second or third line in New York, but don't draft him with delusions of grandeur as he still needs to fully adapt to John Tortorella's system and the compressed schedule.

Brian Campbell, D, Panthers: Campbell turned back the clock last year, putting his disappointing campaigns as a Blackhawk behind him with a rebound season in Florida. He received the Lady Byng Trophy as the league's most sportsmanlike player and notched 49 assists to go with his four goals to slot in as the league's second-best scoring defenseman. To expect that kind of output is unlikely, so while Campbell should be good, figure on some regression.

Jimmy Howard, G, Red Wings: Howard put up dazzling numbers last season -- 35 wins, 2.13 goals-against average and .920 save percentage -- while putting a disappointing 2010-11 campaign behind him. The loss of Nicklas Lidstrom and perhaps to a greater extent, Brad Stuart, along with the failure of Detroit to infuse the team with any new talent will likely have an understandably large impact on Howard's numbers this season. The Red Wings also have a better back-up in Jonas Gustavsson, so if Howard does struggle, they have someone who could start a few games in a row.

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Player News
Michael Bournival
Habs Recall Bournival
Michael Bournival, LW, MON
4:12 AM
News: Michael Bournival recalled Bournival from Hamilton of the American Hockey League, Hockey Inside Out reports. He had been sent down to the AHL to get some playing time and scored a goal in two games with the Bulldogs.
Analysis: Michael Bournival opened the regular season in Montreal but had not appeared in a game, hence the desire to get some playing time in with the Bulldogs. He rotated in on the fourth line during Monday's practice, and it is not known if he'll suit up Tuesday night against Detroit.

Tom Wilson
Caps Reassign Wilson
Tom Wilson, RW, WAS
12:23 AM
News: The Capitals reassigned Tom Wilson (ankle) to AHL Hershey on Monday.
Analysis: Tom Wilson has been on IR with an ankle injury, and will likely use the stint in Hershey to get back up to speed. Expect him to be called back up to the big club when he's healthy.

Seth Griffith
Bruins' Griffith Skates With Lucic, Krejci
Seth Griffith, C, BOS
12:22 AM
News: Seth Griffith, whom the Bruins recalled from AHL Providence on Monday, skated with Milan Lucic and David Krejci during Monday's practice, the team's official site reports.
Analysis: The Bruins return to action Tuesday against the Sharks, and if Seth Griffith rejoins the team's lineup for that contest, it's plausible that he and Simon Gagne could both end up seeing ice time with Lucic and Krejci.

Jason LaBarbera
Ducks Reassign LaBarbera
Jason LaBarbera, G, ANA
12:18 AM
News: The Ducks reassigned Jason LaBarbera to AHL Norfolk on Monday, Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports.
Analysis: Labarbera filled in for John Gibson as Frederik Andersen's backup for a while, but will return to the minors, where he's expected to spend most of the season.

John Gibson
Ducks Recall Gibson
John Gibson, G, ANA
12:14 AM
News: The Ducks recalled John Gibson from AHL Norfolk on Monday, Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports.
Analysis: John Gibson earned the first start of the season for the Ducks, but gave up six goals on 39 shots in a loss to the Penguins. He'll return from the AHL and try to prove himself once again when he gets the opportunity. Gibson went 1-1, allowing two goals on 61 shots for a .902 save mark, in his two games with Norfolk.

Kevan Miller
Bruins' Miller Out Indefinitely
Kevan Miller, D, BOS
12:06 AM
News: Kevan Miller is out indefinitely with a dislocated shoulder, Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe reports.
Analysis: Kevan Miller injured his shoulder during a fight with the Sabres' Nicolas Deslauriers on Saturday, and will be sidelined indefinitely until he recovers. Miller has yet to record a point, but had a plus-4 rating and five PIM in six games before getting hurt. In his absence, look for Matt Bartkowski to return to the Bruins' blue-line mix, beginning Tuesday against the Sharks.

Scott Harrington
Pens Reassign Harrington
Scott Harrington, D, PIT
12:00 AM
News: The Penguins reassigned Scott Harrington to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Monday, Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Analysis: Scott Harrington didn't see any NHL action while he was up with the big club, but will try to play well enough in the AHL to earn another shot.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Oilers' Nugent-Hopkins Scores First Goal
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, EDM
10/20/2014
News: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored his first goal of the season -- a game winner -- as Edmonton knocked off the visiting Lightning 3-2 on Monday.
Analysis: RNH made Tampa pay in the third period after Ondrej Palat gifted an awful turnover to Jordan Eberle, who grabbed the only assist on his goal. Now that the Oilers have gotten their first win of the season out of the way, look for the Oilers' top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and Taylor Hall to get on the scoresheet more consistently.

Brett Connolly
Bolts' Connolly Finds Twine In Loss
Brett Connolly, RW, TB
10/20/2014
News: Brett Connolly potted his second goal of the season in Monday's 3-2 loss to the Oilers.
Analysis: It was nice to see the 2010 sixth overall pick find twine for the second time in five games, but he really hadn't done much else in between (no points, one shot, plus-1 in three contests). Tampa is loaded with bright young talent, anchored by superstar Steven Stamkos, veteran Valteri Filppula and sophomores Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, so Brett Connolly will need to find the offensive consistency that has eluded him in three NHL seasons if he hopes to earn a more prominent role in coach Jon Cooper's lineup.

Ben Bishop
Bolts' Bishop Takes First Loss Monday
Ben Bishop, G, TB
10/20/2014
News: Ben Bishop lost for the first time this season, making 20 of 23 saves as Tampa dropped a 3-2 decision to the Oilers on Monday.
Analysis: Big Ben fell victim to a couple of unfortunate goals in this one, as the Oilers' Taylor Hall converted a second-period penalty shot before Ryan Nugent-Hopkins blew the game winner past him in the third after a ghastly defensive-zone giveaway by Ondrej Palat. Ben Bishop will probably take a rest in favor of backup Evgeni Nabokov when the Bolts play less than 24 hours later Tuesday in Calgary, but look for last year's Vezina Trophy finalist to bounce back this weekend as Tampa's Western road trip continues.

 
 
 
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