Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Playoff Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
2015 Draft Prep Guide
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Daily Fantasy
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

Blue Line Buzz: Defensemen tiers

by | Rotowire.com
  •  

In the fall of 2005, NHL rinks were emblazoned with the slogan "Thank You Fans," as the league resumed play following its lost 2004-05 season. What will be on the rinks this coming Saturday? Certainly, the NHL will have some new, snappy marketing campaign to remind the fans they spurned the past four months. The league wasted no time last Saturday evening in getting the message up on its website, seemingly minutes after the NHLPA ratified the CBA, launching their "Hockey's Back" campaign.

Along with the barrage of ads on the NHL's home page is their "Hockey's Back" video. A montage that opens with idyllic and wistful images of snow-covered trees and frozen ponds, talking of rituals, passion and the purity of a sheet of ice after the Zamboni has run across it. Sounds like enough to make fans forget the lockout, right?

The obvious question is, where did hockey go and why did it go there? The league just says it's back, as if Gary Bettman and Bill Daly stumbled upon it in their closet, conveniently ignoring the fact they are the ones who lost it.

Erik Karlsson, late first rounder?

Overall statistics are going to be skewed by the reality of a shortened 48-game season, leaving points-per-game to be even more meaningful this season for defensemen. Expect Ottawa's Erik Karlsson to challenge the elusive point-per-game pace among blue-liners, but Karlsson's skill is astounding, a curve-breaking player polluting the data for all other defenders. After last season's 19 goals and 78 points in 81 games, it's reasonable to expect a similar rate of production from the still-developing Norris Trophy winner. Not since the drafts of 2009 and 2010 and Mike Green has a defender been linked to a late first-round pick. The types of numbers Karlsson put up last season and those that Green produced from 2008 to 2010 have only happened three times since the lockout before the lockout that just ended.

An argument can easily be made for Karlsson being a late first-round pick after the elite scorers and goaltenders have been snagged. Seriously, you have to figure your first eight picks of most drafts will feature Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Henrik Lundqvist, Jonathan Quick, Claude Giroux and Pekka Rinne (possibly Alex Ovechkin as well). Even if Karlsson does not produce a point per game, he'll be so far ahead of most of his blue-line brethren that it won't be a wasted pick. Karlsson's 59 assists last season were tied for third best in the NHL with Giroux and Joe Thornton. Those same 59 assists represented six more total points than the league's No. 2 scoring defenseman, Florida's Brian Campbell (53).

Eyeing up Karlsson late in the first round and early second round will put him in the company of James Neal, Corey Perry, John Tavares, the Sedin twins and Ilya Kovalchuk, not to mention the second tier of elite netminders after the dominant ones have been snagged.

Those drafting toward the end of the first round will be comforted by knowing they can still snag a high-end goal-scorer and possibly Erik Karlsson there. The odds of Karlsson lasting until the end of the third round are almost null, but the next level of goal-scorers will be available: think Marian Gaborik, Jordan Eberle, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan. Selecting Karlsson with one of those first two corner picks will solidify your defense for an extra round or two, while offering comparable assist totals to some of the league's elite set-up men as well as a boatload of power play points and shots on goal. Karlsson is the outlier among defensemen, putting himself clearly ahead of even a player like Zdeno Chara, who's a monster in multi-category leagues.

If you want to nitpick, Karlsson won't pick up too many penalty minutes, leaving you possibly to have to "settle" for Chara early in the third round. Those picking late in the first round will seriously have to consider spending that pick on Karlsson, a pick that could pan out quite nicely.

Striking Oil?

It's rare for hockey fans and poolies to bestow so much hype on a player that has never skated a minute in the NHL, but there is a palpable buzz coming out of Edmonton regarding the potentially budding star on their back end, Justin Schultz. A standout at the University of Wisconsin, Schultz refused to sign with Anaheim, the club that drafted him in 2008, and ended up inking a free-agent contract with the Oilers, giving Northern Alberta an exciting group of players not seen since the 1980s.

Schultz has done essentially everything to earn this hype, having lit up the American Hockey League during the lockout along with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall and Eberle for Oklahoma City, registering 18 goals and 48 points through 34 games, second overall in the league. The potential the Oilers have to explode offensively is staggering -- their power play could be lethal. However, scoring power-play goals against minor leagues in the "A" is be a bit different than executing in the Western Conference. Schultz is an excellent skater and, by all accounts, a solid defender, but will he be able to dominate in the NHL the way he did in Oklahoma City?

The Oilers aren't terribly deep on defense. Nick Schultz is a solid stay-at-home defender acquired from Minnesota last February and Ryan Whitney can be effective when not maimed. However, the names Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Theo Peckham and Corey Potter do not connote sound defensive play. Not to mention Devan Dubnyk and Nikolai Khabibulin in the Oilers' goal.

Given the buzz around Schultz, it's not unreasonable to believe he will be snagged earlier than he should on draft day and the return very well could be handsome. Don't be surprised at all if Schultz is one of the top seven to 10 defenders taken, his potential is unlike any seen for a rookie rearguard since possibly Dion Phaneuf's Calgary debut.

However, considering the price you'll have to pay for Justin Schultz, his lack of track record and expectations surrounding him, it may be better to let Schultz go in favor of a more reliable forward or steadier, proven defenseman. Passing on a talented rookie isn't sexy, but it's safe. (However, if he's still there at a spot that will yield value, grab Schultz and don't look back). There will be less room for error in a shortened season and missing on defense with a high pick could hurt. Schultz is talented, there's no doubt, but Edmonton's supporting cast outside of his power-play buddies is not the most reliable group of players. Caveat Emptor.

Blue Line Tiers

The listings below assume a standard league starting five defensemen with goals, assists, plus-minus, power-play points, shots on goal and penalty minutes as categories. Getting an elite defenseman or two before the fourth round is a good way to solidify the position for several picks while rounding out the goaltending position and acquiring goal-scoring forwards.

There is always value to be had late amongst defensemen, be it in veterans like Dennis Wideman (Calgary), Dennis Seidenberg (Boston), Marek Zidlicky (New Jersey) and Joni Pitkanen (Carolina) or rising young talents such as Columbus's Nikita Nikitin, Stefan Elliott and Slava Voynov.

Defensemen that can challenge 22 to 25 points in the 48-game season should offer more value than a 25-to-30-point forward, who will be much more plentiful. Expect most defensemen labeled as offensively minded to hover in the 0.33 to 0.45 points-per-game range with a select few challenging a point every two games or greater.

(Erik Karlsson has been excluded from these tiers due to his late first, early second-round status).

Elite

These are the players who stand out among high-scoring forwards

When to draft them: Target in late second/early third round

Zdeno Chara , Bruins: No rival in multi-category production.

Kris Letang, Penguins: Concussion derailed a potential 60-plus-point season last year. Expect him to play close to a point per game.

Shea Weber, Predators: Big numbers to go with big paycheck. Boost in leagues that reward shots, likely one of few defenders to challenge 12-plus goals.

Not Quite Elite

Most of your top goal scorers will be gone by this time, leaving assist-gathering forwards amid potentially strong blue-liners. Defensemen who can produce assists and a handful of goals will have more value than play-making forwards this season.

When to draft them: Target in rounds four and five

Alex Pietrangelo, Blues: Budding star on a talented young squad.

Keith Yandle, Coyotes: Great playmaker and double-digit goal potential.

Dustin Byfuglien, Jets: Tremendous points-per-game potential, big shot and PIM totals.

Alexander Edler, Canucks: Nagging back injury is behind him and he's on the power play with the Sedin brothers.

Michael Del Zotto, Rangers: Can easily make a case for MDZ to be higher. Great skater with high skill level and is much-improved defensively. Signed a two-year deal Sunday to play in New York.

P.K. Subban, Canadiens (RFA): Subban is a restricted free agent negotiating a contract. He's an elite talent who showed growth last year. Potential is there for a huge season in terms of shots, goals and hits. Could be league's next elite defender.  Doubtful that Montreal trades him. Likely to be signed.

Second Tier

Can easily make an argument for these defenders being taken before some of the more reliable ones.

When to draft them: Rounds six through 10

Kevin Shattenkirk, Blues: Consecutive 40-point seasons and he's on a power-play with David Perron and Alex Pietrangelo.

Brian Campbell, Panthers: An assist machine, No. 2 in defenseman scoring last year, but might challenge five goals. Safe, unspectacular pick.

John Carlson, Capitals: Increased his point total, good supporting cast in Washington. Will be in Adam Oates's attacking system.

Old Reliable

There's nothing flashy about these players, but several of them should challenge double-digit goals and a points-per-game pace of 0.50 while adding in peripheral stats.

When to draft them: Rounds six through nine

Dan Boyle, Sharks: Nothing but consistency. Lacks upside, but his ceiling is fine.

Dion Phaneuf, Maple Leafs:  Few players in the league are under the scrutiny he is. Should put up 22 to 25 points with plenty of shots and PIMs.

Mark Streit, Islanders: Quietly consistent on a team struggling offensively. Great source of power-play production alongside John Tavares and Matt Moulson.

Ryan Suter, Wild: Registers close to a point every two games, third among defenders in power-play assists last season. Expect him to rake in helpers in Minneapolis, just don't pay what the Wild did for his services.

Drew Doughty, Kings / Duncan Keith, Blackhawks: Neither will light the lamp with regularity, but should come close to 25 points in the brief campaign. (Pass over these two in favor of players with more upside).

Goal-scoring defensemen with lower point totals

When to draft them: Rounds 10 and after

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Coyotes: One of a handful to crack double-digit goals last year. Young, likes to shoot, meshes well with Keith Yandle.

Jason Garrison, Canucks: Huge free agent contract. He scored 16 goals last year and is not afraid to fire the puck. Better offense around him than he had in Florida.

Christian Ehrhoff, Sabres: Heavy shot blue-liner who struggled following his signing with Buffalo. Sabres will have a dynamic offense, so expect a bounce-back.

Nicklas Kronwall, Red Wings: Will see more chances with Nicklas Lidstrom retired. Give him a boost in leagues that reward shots and hits.

Rising Young Talents

Justin Faulk, Hurricanes: Tied for the defensemen rookie lead in goals with eight while chipping in 14 assists. Carolina is on the rise and its power play features three high-end goal scorers (Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal and Eric Staal).

Jake Gardiner, Maple Leafs: Gardiner's name has been thrown around in Roberto Luongo trade rumors, but he snagged 30 points last season with the Leafs.

Roman Josi, Predators: One of the candidates to fill in opposite Shea Weber on the power play, Josi could be pushed by Ryan Ellis provided Ellis makes the opening day roster.

Slava Voynov, Kings: Snagged eight goals in several different stints with the Kings last year. Huge shot and no more Jack Johnson to take his power-play time.

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Ryan Wilson
Flames Ink Wilson To PTO
Ryan Wilson, D, COL
2:53 PM
News: Ryan Wilson signed a professional tryout offer with the Flames on Thursday, Randy Sportak of the Calgary Sun reports.
Analysis: Ryan Wilson was limited to just three games as a member of the Avalanche last season, as he suffered a shoulder injury in late October that would ultimately require surgery. Prior to the injury, the 28-year-old wasn't expected to be a major part of the Avs' plans on the blue line, and he'll have an even more difficult time trying to carve out a role in Calgary's defensive corps, which may be the deepest in the NHL.

Nicklas Backstrom
Caps' Backstrom (Hip) "Not In A Rush" To Play
Nicklas Backstrom, C, WAS
1:57 PM
News: Nicklas Backstrom (hip) skated during informal workouts Thursday morning, but is "not in a rush" to return to action, Alex Prewitt of The Washington Post reports.
Analysis: Nicklas Backstrom began skating in August following hip surgery during the offseason, and while he hasn't experienced any setbacks, he doesn't appear to have a specific target date in mind for his return. "I'm not going to be back to 100 percent before I start playing," the 27-year-old pivot remarked, "I'm not going to play on 90 percent. We'll see how it goes. We don't know yet." The uncertainty surrounding Backstrom's return has lowered his standing somewhat in fantasy rankings. While the situation should be monitored closely, Backstrom should provide some serious value if he can get up to speed quickly on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and newcomer T.J. Oshie, as he has been one of the more productive playmakers and power-play performers over the last several seasons. Don't sleep on him too long in your draft if he continues to progress according to plan.

Joe Pavelski
Pavelski Expected To Be Named Sharks' Next Captain
Joe Pavelski, C, SJ
1:01 PM
News: Joe Pavelski is expected to be named the Sharks' next captain, CSN Bay Area's Kevin Kurz reports.
Analysis: Captaincy has been a delicate issue in San Jose over the last year, as former coach Todd McLellan stripped longtime leader Joe Thornton of those honors heading into 2014-15, straining the relationship between the star center and team brass. While Thornton is still around, it's clear that the 31-year-old Joe Pavelski is now the face of the franchise, after ranking fourth in the NHL in goals over the last four seasons with 161. Pavelski figures to pace the Sharks in scoring once again during the upcoming campaign, while taking on more of a leadership role in the locker room.

Keith Ballard
Ex-Wild D-Man Ballard Leaning Toward Retirement
Keith Ballard, D, MIN
9:55 AM
News: Keith Ballard (concussion) confirmed last week that he's leaning toward retirement, Michael Russo of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Analysis: Keith Ballard is still experiencing concussion symptoms from the head injury he suffered Dec. 9 of last season, and it sounds like he's leaning toward hanging up his skates rather than risking permanent health issues. The 32-year-old had previously experienced several concussions during his NHL career, likely leaving many teams disinterested in Ballard's services even if he opts to keep playing.

Andrew Copp
Jets' Copp To Challenge For NHL Job
Andrew Copp, C, WPG
9:47 AM
News: Andrew Copp is expected to compete for the Jets' fourth-line center duties during training camp, Jeff Hamilton of the Winnipeg Free Press reports.
Analysis: Andrew Copp, who finished up his sophomore season at the University of Michigan last spring before turning pro, made his NHL debut for the Jets in their final regular season game in 2015-16, when the team was just trying to rest its regulars in advance of the playoffs. The 2013 fourth-round pick went unused during the Jets' first-round series exit, but the size he presents (6-foot-2, 210 pounds) along with the strong leadership and decision-making he demonstrated during his time at Michigan could make him the Jets' best internal option to pivot the checking line. Holdovers Anthony Peluso and Matt Halischuk likely represent Copp's top competition for that role.

Joakim Nordstrom
Nordstrom, Blackhawks Agree On One-Year Deal
Joakim Nordstrom, C, CHI
9/2/2015
News: Joakim Nordstrom signed a one-year, two-way contract with the Blackhawks on Wednesday, Brian Hedger of NHL.com reports.
Analysis: Joakim Nordstrom waited several months before agreeing to his qualifying offer, but he's at least in the fold to compete for a spot in the Blackhawks' crowded bottom-six ranks. The forward recorded no goals and three assists in 38 games with the parent club last season, so a return trip to AHL Rockford could be in the works to open 2015-16.

Tom Sestito
Penguins Sign Sestito To PTO
Tom Sestito, LW, PIT
9/2/2015
News: Tom Sestito signed a professional tryout contract last week with the Penguins, Josh Yohe of DKonPittsburghSports.com reports.
Analysis: As a tough guy who gobbles up penalty minutes, Tom Sestito doesn't seem to mesh well with coach Mike Johnston's vision of rolling out four lines with scoring ability. Don't expect him to crack the Penguins' 23-man roster out of training camp, barring a litany of injuries.

Evgeni Malkin
Pens' Malkin Healthy Heading Into Camp
Evgeni Malkin, C, PIT
9/2/2015
News: Penguins coach Mike Johnston said Evgeni Malkin is healthy heading into training camp, NHL.com reports. "[Malkin] was injured before the playoffs last year; he's in skating already," Johnston said.
Analysis: The Penguins are expected to tinker with their top-six ranks in training camp after adding Phil Kessel to the mix in the offseason, but it's expected that Kessel will play on the top line with Sidney Crosby, while Evgeni Malkin centers a line of Patric Hornqvist and a yet-to-be-determined left winger. Regardless of which player among David Perron, Chris Kunitz, and rookie Sergei Plotnikov ultimately settles next to Malkin, staying healthy is more essential to the star center's fantasy production than anything else. Malkin has missed 103 regular-season contests over the last six years.

Peter Budaj
Kings Ink Budaj To Tryout Offer
Peter Budaj, G, LA
9/2/2015
News: Peter Budaj has signed with the Kings on a professional tryout contract, Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider reports.
Analysis: Peter Budaj struggled while seeing limited ice time with AHL St. John's in the Winnipeg organization last season, going 0-9-6 with a 3.55 GAA and .888 save percentage. The 33-year-old clearly seems to be on the downswing of his career, but as a veteran with 296 NHL appearances on his ledger, he could provide insurance in goal for the Kings at the minor-league level.

Markus Soberg
Jackets' Soberg Out 4-6 Weeks
Markus Soberg, RW, CLB
9/2/2015
News: Markus Soberg (groin) will miss the next four-to-six weeks as he recovers from surgery to repair a sports hernia, Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports.
Analysis: A sixth-round pick by the Blue Jackets in 2013, Markus Soberg was hampered by an abdominal injury throughout much of last season, ending up with 13 goals and 17 assists in 61 games for OHL Windsor. It's unclear whether he would've been able to make the jump to Columbus this season even if healthy, but the surgery will certainly delay his progress to North American hockey.

 
 
 
Top Videos
Rankings