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In the Pits: Chase heads to the Monster

 
 
 
 
The Pit Stop is the essential guide to setting your Fantasy Racing lineup for the upcoming week. We provide you with pertinent news and roster management advice during every race week.

The Chase is underway NASCAR Fantasy fans, but for Kyle Busch it was not the start he probably envisioned having at New Hampshire.

The driver with the best record after 26 races had a race to forget at Loudon, basically struggling from the very start when he broke a sway bar on his car. Kyle struggled the rest of the way, including having an accident, finishing 12 laps down in 34th place. He dropped from starting the Chase in first down to eighth place, 74 points behind leader Carl Edwards.

But, it should be said, don't count Kyle out of contention for the title just yet. And here's why, at least for now. The second stop on the Chase schedule is at Dover International Speedway -- the Monster Mile in Dover, Delaware. Kyle took the checkered flag in the race here on June 1 when he led 158 laps. It might just be the right place for him to bounce right back into the thick of things in the Chase.

Greg Biffle, who snapped a 33-race drought with the win at Loudon, was just as good at Dover in June, if not better than Kyle Busch -- except for winning. Biffle dominated the race for 164 laps before settling for a third-place result behind Edwards. Keep in mind, Fantasy fans, that Kyle and Carl were the hottest drivers during the so-called regular season in NASCAR, with Jimmie Johnson making a surge late in the season as a serious contender.

The Monster Mile is one of the toughest places to deal with on the Sprint Cup circuit. With its high banked concrete surface (changed to concrete in 1995), even a lot of the top drivers have trouble maneuvering the track. There have been nine different winners in the last nine races at Dover.

Driver Stockwatch

Here's a list of drivers expected to produce better or worse than their salaries indicate on the coming track. Prices are derived from the CBS Sports.com Fantasy Racing Challenge:

Best value


Carl Edwards, $289,907: He owns an average finish of 8.3 in the last five races at Dover, the best among all current drivers. He has finishes of second in June, first last fall, third last spring, second again in fall 2006 and 15th in spring 2006. Simply put, impressive results. In eight starts at Dover, Edwards has not finished lower than 18th.
Martin Truex Jr., $213,333: Not in the Chase and no pressure on Truex Jr., or at least not as much. Truex Jr. averages a finish of 9.6 in five career races at Dover, including a win in 2007 and also a pair of sixth-place finishes. He should be good for a quality result this week.
Juan Pablo Montoya, $165,648: Here's a driver who seems to have figured out the Monster Mile pretty well in a short time. After placing 31st in his first start at Dover in spring 2007, Montoya has posted some good runs in the next two races. He was 10th last fall and 12th in June. He has improved notably and averages a finish of 17.7. Also notice his fair value for this week.
Casey Mears, $155,185: Quite inexpensive for this week at a track that Mears has done fairly well at recently. He was 17th in June, sixth last fall and 13th in the spring of last season. Not too bad considering he did not have impressive results in most of his previous starts at Dover.
Greg Biffle, $246,296: His victory at Loudon can only be a boost to his confidence. And he's at a track this week where he has performed very well in his career. Biffle has not finished lower than eighth in his last five races at the track -- third, second, sixth, fifth and eighth. He also won a race in 2005 and has a fine average finish of 12th.
Jimmie Johnson, $272,777: Another driver who, despite the difficult venue, is usually reliable for a good run at Dover. Johnson averages a finish of 11.5 in 13 career races at the speedway. He has not finished outside 15th place in the last eight races. Johnson was seventh in June.

Overpriced value


Tony Stewart, $242,777: Consider the price for Stewart on the high end for this week at Dover, where he has had mediocre to poor results recently. While he has won at Dover twice early in his career, he has finished 25th, 33rd, 40th and 41st in four of the last five races here. The 41st result was in the June race. Therefore, weigh your options carefully when selecting Fantasy lineups if you are considering Stewart.
Kevin Harvick, $241,388: Not particularly strong results for Harvick throughout his career at Dover. He was 38th in June, 20th in the previous two starts and 32nd in fall 2006. All that says is that Harvick has been having a tough time when it comes to races at Dover. His price also is rather high for this race.
Kurt Busch, $181,666: Another driver who has been having a bit of a hard time at Dover in recent races. Kurt was a modest 20th in June, just 29th in this race last year and 42nd in the first stop last season. He averages a career finish of 20.6 in 16 races at Dover.
Kasey Kahne, $219,166: The 25.9 average finish says plenty about Kahne's potential at the Dover race. The seventh-place finish in 2006 is his only top 10 finish in nine starts. In June he was 31st and in this race last year he was 32nd. Kahne also was 38th in the fall race in 2006 before squeezing an 11th finish the next spring.
A.J. Allmendinger, $132,236: This money would be better invested in another driver around this price range this week. Here's why -- 37th, 43rd and 33rd finishes are not good enough to be included in any lineups, even though he might not be considered an expensive driver. Look for other options.
David Gilliland, $147,592: Not the most expensive of second-tier drivers, and despite a reasonably decent 16th place finish in June, it's still not good enough at Dover for Fantasy consideration. Other results like 24th, 29th and 27th gives him an average finish of 24th in his four starts at the track.
T H E   P I T   S T O P   S T A R T I N G   F I V E
Beat the Expert! Staying within the $1,000,000 parameters set in the 2008 CBS Sports.com Fantasy Racing Challenge, here are the picks for this week's best lineup for the money:
Driver2007 Dover finishSalary
Greg Biffle (No. 16, Ford) 2nd $246,296
Brian Vickers (No. 83, Toyota) 16th $195,092
Jeff Gordon (No. 24, Chevrolet) 11th $234,444
Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42, Dodge) 10th $165,648
Casey Mears (No. 5, Chevrolet) 6th $155,185
Total salaries $996,665

Next race: Kansas 400 -- Kansas Speedway -- September 28

 
 
 
 
Mihai Cercel
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