I had a good feeling that playing the weather properly was going to be the most important thing in last week's race at New Hampshire and I was right. I just didn't think a rookie would play it better than everyone else in the field.
At age 19, Joey Logano became the youngest driver to ever win a Sprint Cup race last Sunday in the LENOX Industrial Tools 301, getting a whole bunch of help from Mother Nature. Logano was involved in a wreck and lost a lap in the race but was able to save enough fuel to move into first place before the race was called due to rain after 273 of a scheduled 301 laps. Logano got his first-ever Cup win in only 20 tries.
Ryan Newman, who had been out in front for much of the race, ran out of gas on lap 264 as he was trying to stay out as long as possible with the rain fast-approaching. Jeff Gordon took second and was steadily cutting into Logano's lead before the rain started to come down. Gordon moved up to only 69 points behind leader Tony Stewart in the Cup standings with the second-place finish. Stewart finished fifth.
The Cup series will have its first repeat track of the season this Independence Day as the Daytona International Speedway hosts the Coke Zero 400, a restrictor plate race. There's nothing better than some good racing and fireworks to help celebrate the founding of our nation.
In the year's first race, the Daytona 500, it was Matt Kenseth earning the first of two victories to open the season. That was also a rain-shortened event, the fourth in the history of the Daytona 500. Kenseth started the race in 39th place and was lucky enough to be in first when the race was all said and done.
Kyle Busch seemed to have the best car that day but ended up finishing 41st after crashing out during the 123rd lap. He won the second race at Daytona back in 2008 and is certainly one of the favorites heading into this Saturday's race.
Be sure that all of your 4th of July plans involve daytime activities because the fireworks are going to be on the track Saturday night.
Tier 1 Start -- Kyle Busch
Last week I liked his brother Kurt, but at Daytona this week I really like Kyle's chances. Kyle was the dominant force on the track in the Daytona 500 before getting involved in a wreck and won the second event there in 2008. He'll be looking to bounce back in a big way from that 41st place finish in February and could very well end taking the checkered flag.
Others to consider: Kurt Busch; Matt Kenseth
Tier 1 Sit -- Denny Hamlin
Hamlin has simply had very little success at Daytona over the years. His best-ever finish was 17th in the 2008 Daytona 500 and has an average finish of 26.7. Hamlin won't likely even finish in the top 20, so don't even think about using him this week.
Others to avoid: Jeff Gordon; Ryan Newman
Tier 2 Start -- Clint Bowyer
Bowyer has the highest finishing average (11.1) of any driver on the circuit at Daytona despite never winning there. He has finished in the top 10 in five of his seven career starts, including two in a row. He may not win, but you can expect a strong finish from him.
Others to consider: Jeff Burton; Mark Martin
Tier 2 Sit -- Greg Biffle
Biffle is a former winner at Daytona but most of his career results there have been disappointing. He has an average finish of 22.5 and has finished 20th or worse in eight of his last 10 starts. He finished 43rd in this race last year and has finished outside of the top 10 in three of his last four races this season.
Others to avoid: Juan Pablo Montoya; David Reutimann
Tier 3 Start -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
When you think Daytona, it's impossible not to mention the Earnhardt name. Dale Jr. has had a trying season but has usually had good success at the track where his father was involved in that tragic wreck back in 2001. He's a two-timer winner at Daytona and could use this race to get back on track. Logano is also not a bad choice for this race as he is carrying some momentum into it from his win last week.
Others to consider: Joey Logano; Kevin Harvick
Tier 3 Sit -- Jamie McMurray
McMurray is having a disappointing 2009 campaign, currently sitting 22nd in the point standings. Since winning at Daytona in 2007, he's finished no better than 26th. McMurray is in a funk this year and this won't likely be the track where he turns it around.
Others to avoid: Marcos Ambrose; Brian Vickers
Tier 4 Start -- Elliott Sadler
Sadler had his best finish of the year so far in the Daytona 500 and has had great success there in recent years. He's finished in the top 10 at Daytona in five of his last seven races but has never picked up a win. Hopefully he can figure out a way to get back in the top 10 this week.
Others to consider: David Ragan; David Stremme
Tier 4 Sit -- Sam Hornish, Jr.
Hornish has been doing better on the Cup series this year and has two top-10 finishes in his last four races. However, he has really struggled at Daytona in his first three career starts there, with a combined finishing average of 25.3. Don't let Hornish's recent solid finishes fool you, he is not a good play this week.
Others to avoid: Bobby Labonte; A.J. Allmendinger
Tier 5 Start -- Brad Keselowski
Keselowski made his first start in the Cup series since May 9 this past weekend and ended up with a sixth place finish. He shocked the NASCAR world with his win in the Aaron's 499 on April 26 and has two top-10 finishes in the last two races he has qualified for. If he can qualify this weekend, he'd be an excellent play at Daytona considering his great success this season on the Nationwide Tour as well. Again, make sure he's active this weekend before inserting him or any other Tier 5 driver into your lineup.
Others to consider: Robby Gordon; David Gilliland
Tier 5 Sit -- Scott Speed
Speed finished 35th in his first-ever Cup race at Daytona earlier this season, giving him the second-worst finishing average of any driver. Logano is the worst, finishing 43rd earlier this season. Speed has finished outside of the top 30 in each of his last five races, failing to finish two of them.
Others to avoid: John Andretti; Dave Blaney
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Kyle Busch
Tier 2 -- Clint Bowyer
Tier 3 -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Tier 4 -- Elliott Sadler
Tier 5 -- Brad Keselowski
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