I was high on Kyle Busch at Daytona last weekend and looking like a genius in the waning moments of the race. Then it all went wrong for me and everyone else that picked Busch in the Coke Zero 400.
Leading the final lap in this past weekend's race, all Busch had to do was hold off Tony Stewart, whom he took the lead from a few laps prior. That didn't happen.
Instead of celebrating Independence Day with a win at Daytona, Busch ended up in the infield care center, the same place he ended up in his first race this season at the storied track. In that event, he led a race-high 88 laps before crashing out.
Stewart was trying to get past Busch who was not willing to let him go by. So Stewart had little choice but to try and nudge Busch up the track and get past him. He gave him a bit more than a nudge, sending Busch airborne and ultimately into the wall, going on to take the checkered flag and increasing his lead in the point standings in the process.
Busch will try to make up for his near-miss this weekend as the Cup series heads to the Joliet, Ill., for the LifeLock.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway, NASCAR's only trip to the track.
Chicagoland Speedway is a newer track, opening back in 2001. The 1.5-mile tri-oval has been known as a track where fuel mileage typically plays a big part in the race. This race will be held under the lights for the second time in the track's existence.
Busch is the reigning champion in Chicago, nipping Jimmie Johnson on a green and white restart in the race's final lap. Chicagoland is one of only six tracks where Johnson has yet to win.
Don't be surprised to see both Busch and Stewart near the front of the pack this weekend, meaning there could be some leftover fireworks to be set off on Saturday night.
Tier 1 Start -- Tony Stewart
Smoke was the winner at Chicagoland in 2007 and is one of only two drivers to win this race twice. He took a fifth place finish in 2008 and has only finished outside of the top-10 twice in the eight times that Chicago has hosted a Sprint Cup event. He is riding a wave of momentum and Fantasy owners should take advantage of it this weekend.
Others to consider: Kyle Busch; Jimmie Johnson
Tier 1 Sit -- Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is the only driver in Tier 1 to have never finished in the top 10 at Chicago. He has only participated in three races at the track, with an average finish of 23.7. He finished 40th in 2008, making him a prime candidate to sit this weekend.
Others to avoid: Kurt Busch; Ryan Newman
Tier 2 Start -- Greg Biffle
Biffle had never finished in the top 10 at Chicago until 2008, when he picked up a fourth place result. He does however have the best finishing average at this track in Tier 2, which is surprisingly weak overall at Chicago. Biffle isn't one of the favorites coming into this weekend, but he seems like the best option in Tier 2.
Others to consider: Clint Bowyer; Jeff Burton
Tier 2 Sit -- Carl Edwards
Edwards has been a top-10 machine of late, with six top-10 finishes in his last eight races. However, he still hasn't won a race this season and is heading to a track where he has an average finish of 23.5 in his career. Edwards is too valuable of an option in Tier 2 to waste on this weekend's race.
Others to avoid: Juan Pablo Montoya; David Reutimann
Tier 3 Start -- Kevin Harvick
This is the easiest pick of the week. Harvick has the top finishing average at Chicago of any driver, winning both of the first two races held at the track in 2001 and 2002. He has only finished outside of the top 10 once in eight races, making him one of the favorites this weekend.
Others to consider: Dale Earnhardt, Jr.; Brian Vickers
Tier 3 Sit -- Jamie McMurray
This is the second straight track that McMurray has little success at in his career. McMurray finished eighth in his first career attempt at Chicago, but has finished 21st or worse in four of his next five attempts. A top-20 finish for McMurray would be pretty good, making him a pretty bad option this week.
Others to avoid: Marcos Ambrose; Joey Logano
Tier 4 Start -- Reed Sorenson
Sorenson has had a good amount of success at Chicagoland in his three attempts there, with one top-10 and an average finish of 16.7. A top 20 finish is certainly within his grasp, so get him active this weekend.
Others to consider: David Ragan; A.J. Allmendinger
Tier 4 Sit -- Sam Hornish, Jr.
Hornish finished in 37th place in his first career race at Chicagoland Speedway. He has been significantly better in his sophomore campaign, but there's no reason to pick him this week considering that a road course is coming up on August 9 at Watkins Glen.
Others to avoid: Michael Waltrip; David Stremme
Tier 5 Start -- Scott Speed
Speed has never made a Sprint Cup start at Chicagoland but is automatically qualified for the race because he's in 35th place in the point standings. He is only 17 points ahead of John Andretti who is in 36th place, so use Speed while he's still an automatic qualifier like he is this weekend.
Others to consider: Robby Gordon; Dave Blaney
Tier 5 Sit -- John Andretti
If he qualifies and has a good finish on Saturday, Andretti could overtake Speed in the point standings and be an automatic qualifier. Andretti is a driver best left for road courses in the first place, so leave him for Watkins Glen in August.
Others to avoid: Joe Nemechek; Brad Keselowski
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Tony Stewart
Tier 2 -- Greg Biffle
Tier 3 -- Kevin Harvick
Tier 4 -- Reed Sorenson
Tier 5 -- Scott Speed
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