Pretty soon, the annual race at Watkins Glen is going to be re-named the Tony Stewart Invitational.
Stewart won a record fifth time at The Glen on Monday after the race was pushed back a day because of rain on Sunday. It wasn't as easy as Stewart seems to make it look year after year.
He had to hold off a hard-charging Marcos Ambrose over the final 21 laps of the race en route to the victory. Stewart has now finished either first or second in eight of the past 11 Sprint Cup road races.
The win was Stewart's third this season and it increased his lead in the point standings over Jimmie Johnson to 260 points. Johnson, who was the pole sitter, finished in 12th place.
Ambrose, whom I predicted to win this past weekend, nearly followed up a Nationwide win on Saturday with what would have been his first Cup win on Monday. On Saturday in the Nationwide Series race at The Glen, Ambrose blew by Kyle Busch with a daring move that ultimately led to the win.
The Cup Series heads back to Michigan International Speedway for the CARFAX 400 in Brooklyn, Mich. Mark Martin will be looking for a sweep at Michigan after winning the first race of the season here back in early June.
MIS is a two-mile superspeedway shaped like the letter D where top speeds can exceed 190 miles per hour and drivers often go three wide. It has very wide corners and long straight-aways.
Roush Fenway Racing has dominated at Michigan through the years and many of the RFR drivers should finish near the front of the pack on Sunday. However, I am not as RFR-happy this time around at Michigan.
With only four races left until the start of The Chase, look for some exciting racing this weekend in Michigan. Those drivers battling for one of the final spots in the 12-man field will likely start thinking about going for broke to try and improve their chances at making it.
Tier 1 Start -- Matt Kenseth
Matt Kenseth has had overwhelming success at Michigan through the years but finished 20th in the first race this season. He'll be looking to bounce back after that performance as he is a two-time winner at the track and has an average finish of 9.7. Look for him to get back into the top 10 this weekend. Currently sitting 12th in the point standings, he's going to need to have a good finish this weekend or his Chase hopes could be in trouble.
Others to consider: Jimmie Johnson; Tony Stewart
Tier 1 Sit -- Ryan Newman
For a Tier 1 driver, Newman has horrible numbers at Michigan. He has failed to finish in the top 10 there since he won twice in a row in 2003 and 2004. In the first race at MIS this year, he had an underwhelming finish of 23rd.
Others to avoid: Kyle Busch; Kurt Busch
Tier 2 Start -- Mark Martin
Martin kind of lucked his way into a win the first time around at MIS as the two drivers in front of him both ran out of fuel, opening the way for Martin to pick up an easy win. He may have had lady luck on his side, but he still had a pretty speedy car that day. Martin is sitting in 11th in the point standings and needs good finishes in the next four races to make The Chase.
Others to consider: Carl Edwards; Greg Biffle
Tier 2 Sit -- Jeff Burton
Burton has a respectable 16.6 finishing average at Michigan but it's been a good while since he has had success there. His last top-10 finish at MIS and the best of his career came back in 2002. Since then he has finished 11th five times but never broke the top 10. In his first race at MIS this season, he came in 26th. Burton is usually a solid pick any week but steer clear on Sunday.
Others to avoid: David Reutimann; Juan Pablo Montoya
Tier 3 Start -- Brian Vickers
Vickers is still on the outside looking in when it comes to this year's Chase, sitting in 14th place with four races to go. He has a chance to make up some ground this weekend as he has finished in the top 10 in each of his last four starts at MIS. Look for Vickers to make it five in a row and inch closer to a spot in The Chase.
Others to consider: Kevin Harvick; Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Tier 3 Sit -- Casey Mears
Mears has been pretty awful at MIS in his career and the first race this season was no exception. He finished in 24th place, lowering his average result at the track to 19.8 in his career. He has only two career top-10 finishes there in 13 races.
Others to avoid: Marcos Ambrose; Joey Logano
Tier 4 Start -- David Ragan
Ragan has been terrific at MIS through five career races. He has two top-10 finishes and an average finish of 13th. He came in 15th place in the first race of the season at Michigan and has finished inside of the top 25 in each of his last five races as well, making him a solid option this weekend.
Others to consider: Michael Waltrip; Bobby Labonte
Tier 4 Sit -- A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger is riding a hot streak right now, with five straight finishes inside the top 20. However, that streak could come to an end this weekend as the series moves to Michigan, a place where he has an average finish of 29.3 in four career races. Allmendinger finished 39th at MIS in the first race this season, another thing to consider if you are thinking that he will have another solid finish this weekend. He will also be working with a new crew chief as Richard Petty Motorsports decided that Allmendinger and Reed Sorenson will swap crew chiefs.
Others to avoid: David Stremme; Reed Sorenson
Tier 5 Start -- Paul Menard
I liked Menard in the first race at MIS this season and he came up with a disappointing result. However, I still have to recommend him for this weekend's race as the rest of Tier 5 has weak numbers at the track. It'd be hard to make a good or bad choice for this weekend's race, so going with your gut instinct is likely the right move.
Others to consider: Joe Nemechek; Robby Gordon
Tier 5 Sit -- Dave Blaney
Blaney has deceptive numbers at MIS. Despite a respectable 23.9 finishing average there, he has finished 39th or worse in each of his last three races. He does have three top-10 finishes there in his career but his recent results are more of an indication of how he will likely do this weekend.
Others to avoid: Brad Keselowski; Scott Speed
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Matt Kenseth
Tier 2 -- Mark Martin
Tier 3 -- Brian Vickers
Tier 4 -- David Ragan
Tier 5 -- Paul Menard
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