Run out of fuel once at Michigan, it's understandable. Run out of fuel twice at Michigan, you might have kissed away your shot at the Sprint Cup Championship.
In both races at Michigan International Speedway this year, Jimmie Johnson and his team decided to gamble on fuel in an attempt to win the race and got burned. Johnson led 279 of a possible 400 races at MIS this season and failed to finish inside the top 20 in both instances. He finished 33rd this past weekend and 22nd back in mid-June.
Brian Vickers was the beneficiary of Johnson's misfortune in the CARFAX 400 on Sunday, capturing his second career Cup victory and first-ever win for Red Bull Racing. He now sits only 12 points behind Mark Martin for the 12th and final spot in The Chase.
Jeff Gordon finished in second place and leapfrogged Johnson for second in the standings. Points leader Tony Stewart clinched a spot in The Chase with a ho-hum 17th-place showing. Stewart leads Gordon by 284 points while Johnson dropped 303 points back.
With three races remaining before The Chase, the Cup series heads to a track where short tempers and trading paint is commonplace. Who does and does not make The Chase could very well be determined by how drivers near the cut-off mark fare at this weekend's Sharpie 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tenn.
The track at Bristol has 36 degrees of variable banking and a recently repaved surface, which makes it one of the more unique tracks on the circuit. It is one of three short tracks remaining on the Sprint Cup schedule before The Chase and arguably the most exciting one. It is billed as "The World's Fastest Half Mile" and the venue has a capacity of 165,000.
In the first race at Bristol this season back in March, Kyle Busch captured his second career win at BMS, the first time he has won more than once at any track. Busch led 378 of the 503 laps in the race and beat Denny Hamlin by 0.39 seconds.
The Chase is approaching quickly and this Saturday's race will likely be a major factor in determining who is in and who can't believe they just missed out. It's time to go under the lights at Bristol, so be sure to set your lineup by 12 p.m. on Saturday, as this is not a race you'll want to miss.
Tier 1 Start -- Kyle Busch
Busch has been falling off in a big way and will likely need to repeat at Bristol if he hopes to have any shot at making The Chase. His recent woes continued last week at Michigan, finishing 23rd. He has failed to crack the top 10 in nine of his last 11 races and has led only 35 laps combined during that span. It's now or never for the talented Busch, who won two of the first five races to open the season.
Others to consider: Jeff Gordon; Denny Hamlin
Tier 1 Sit -- Jimmie Johnson
Patience is key at Bristol. I'm not sure how calm and collected Johnson is going to be after last weekend's debacle at Michigan. Johnson has never won at Bristol and has an average finish of 16.4 in his career. Before coming in third in the first race there this season, he had finished 30th or worse in three of his past seven starts. Johnson has had a fast car in recent weeks, but being the quickest isn't necessarily the most important thing at Bristol.
Others to avoid: Tony Stewart; Ryan Newman
Tier 2 Start -- Clint Bowyer
The drivers in Tier 2 have put up surprisingly pedestrian numbers at Bristol over the years. With so many accidents and drivers running in close quarters, this is one of the tougher races to predict. Bowyer had a streak of four straight top-10 finishes at BMS snapped back in March, finishing 13th. He is currently sitting in 14th in the point standings and has plenty of incentive to have a good result this weekend.
Others to consider: Carl Edwards; Greg Biffle
Tier 2 Sit -- David Reutimann
Reutimann has made three career starts at Bristol and has finished outside of the top 10 in all three starts. He did have his best finish, 12th, in the race earlier this season, but that's not enough to convince anyone that he is a good pick this weekend. He's currently in 16th-place in the point standings and is a long shot to make The Chase.
Others to avoid: Jeff Burton; Juan Pablo Montoya
Tier 3 Start -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Eanrhardt finally recorded another top-10 finish last week, coming in third at Bristol. He had failed to crack the top 25 in his three previous starts and had not finished in the top 10 since late April. He has obviously had a down season but should have incentive to finish strong and build some momentum heading into 2010. He has an average finish of 11.8 at Bristol and won there back in 2004.
Others to consider: Kevin Harvick; Marcos Ambrose
Tier 3 Sit -- Casey Mears
This is the second week in a row that I am picking against Casey Mears. In 13 career races at Bristol, Mears has only one top-10 finish to his credit, finishing 10th back in 2007. He has finished outside of the top 35 in six of those 13 races as well, so avoid Mears at all costs this weekend.
Others to avoid: Brian Vickers; Joey Logano
Tier 4 Start -- Bobby Labonte
Labonte hasn't exactly been overly impressive at BMS in recent years, but he's a lot better than most of the other drivers in Tier 4. Labonte finished 22nd in the first race at Bristol this season and has a career-best third place finish at the track. His most recent top-10 finish was back in 2007, finishing eighth. Tier 4 is wide open this week, but Labonte seems to be the best of the bunch.
Others to consider: Michael Waltrip; Elliott Sadler
Tier 4 Sit -- Sam Hornish, Jr.
Hornish has been much-improved this season with six top-10 finishes and two top fives. Don't expect him to improve on those numbers this weekend, however, as he has a deplorable track record at Bristol. In three career attempts, Hornish has failed to finish inside of the top 25, with an average result of 32.3.
Others to avoid: A.J. Allmendinger; Reed Sorenson
Tier 5 Start -- Scott Speed
There's not much to get excited about in Tier 5 this weekend, so why not give a rookie a shot? Speed finished 28th in his first career race at Bristol this year and if he finished 28th again, Fantasy owners who picked him would be more than pleased. Speed is currently sitting in 35th in the point standings, 29 points ahead of John Andretti, making him an automatic qualifier this weekend as well.
Others to consider: Paul Menard; Robby Gordon
Tier 5 Sit -- Joe Nemechek
Nemechek has been struggling to get results since the All-Star race. In his past 10 races, Nemechek's best finish is 37th. He has finished outside of the top 40 in five of those races as well. He has an ugly finishing average of 29.3 at Bristol, finishing 41st in the first race in March. Look in another direction for Saturday's race.
Others to avoid: Brad Keselowski; David Gilliland
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Kyle Busch
Tier 2 -- Clint Bowyer
Tier 3 -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Tier 4 -- Bobby Labonte
Tier 5 -- Scott Speed
Do you have a Fantasy Racing question or a comment for Ian? Send him your feedback by clicking here and be sure to include your name and hometown!
