Who's ready to rock?
I can think of a few drivers that better be ready to put the pedal to the metal this Saturday in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 or there chances at making The Chase are finished.
Last week at Atlanta, Kasey Kahne all but solidified his spot in The Chase by winning the Pep Boys Auto 500, his second victory of the season. Kahne had been clinging on to the 11th and final spot in The Chase heading into the race but jumped up all the way to sixth with the win, just about locking up a spot in the 12-man field.
Kevin Harvick, who has been out of The Chase for a long time now, was in position to win the race for a long time but ended up taking second. Juan Pablo Montoya came in third and just about locked down a spot in The Chase. Denny Hamlin clinched a spot in the field with a sixth-place result.
Only four spots have been clinched in the Chase, with the next 10 spots separated by only 122 points. Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Hamlin have all solidified their spots. On the outside looking in are Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch, both of whom trail Matt Kenseth for the final spot by 20 and 37 points, respectively.
The Cup series heads to Richmond International Raceway this Saturday for the second time in 2009. Richmond, a 0.75-mile tri-oval, is short track with bumpers occasionally meeting and minor accidents occurring. That means a Chase contender might be near the front of the pack, get into a fender-bender, and see his chances of winning the title go down the tubes this Saturday.
It's hard to believe that this weekend's race will be the 26th of the year, but it's true. We've seen some major accomplishments and big disappointments, but overall 2009 has been pretty good so far. It's only going to get better.
This is the last week for Segment 2, so be sure to make your picks with great care if you're still in contention. If you're not in contention, there's less than one week remaining before the slates are wiped clean and we embark on Segment 3, which encompasses the 10 most exciting weeks of the Cup season, The Chase.
Tier 1 Start -- Kyle Busch
Busch is 37 points behind Matt Kenseth for the 12th and final spot in the 12-man Chase field. Luckily for him, the Cup series is in Richmond where he won earlier this season. Busch has a finishing average of 6.1 in his career at RIR, with a win and three runner-up results. I'm not going to say that he will definitely make The Chase, but I will pencil him in for a top-five finish.
Others to consider: Denny Hamlin; Tony Stewart
Tier 1 Sit -- Kurt Busch
Busch's spot in the 12-man field is pretty secure, so he'll have no reason to try and push the envelope this weekend at a track that he has had minimal success at in recent years. Since winning at Richmond in September of 2005, Busch has finished 27th or worse in three of his next seven races. Look for a conservative approach from Busch at RIR, making him a poor choice for this week.
Others to avoid: Jeff Gordon; Jimmie Johnson
Tier 2 Start -- Jeff Burton
Burton is not going to be in The Chase this year as he currently sits in 18th position, 448 points behind Kenseth for the final spot. However, Burton has had a reasonable amount of success at RIR, finishing third and sixth in his previous two races. He's never won at Richmond but will hopefully end up with another top-10 finish.
Others to consider: Clint Bowyer; Mark Martin
Tier 2 Sit -- Carl Edwards
Edwards has finished outside of the top 10 in each of his past two races but his spot in The Chase is all but locked up. Richmond is not one of his better tracks historically and he has little incentive to put himself at risk this weekend. Edwards isn't going to be available to most Fantasy owners this week anyway, so just ignore him until the next segment.
Others to avoid: David Reutimann; Juan Pablo Montoya
Tier 3 Start -- Casey Mears
Mears hasn't had the greatest numbers at Richmond over the years but is likely someone you still have remaining this segment that is worth using. He earned his first top-10 finish at RIR earlier this year, coming in ninth. He has a finishing average of 23.5 and little to race for this weekend, but should still be considered a bit of a sleeper.
Others to consider: Marcos Ambrose; Kevin Harvick
Tier 3 Sit -- Brian Vickers
I don't think that Vickers is going to make the 12-man Chase field. He is 20 points behind Kenseth for the final spot and things don't add up well for him to make up that ground this weekend. He has an average finish of 27.8 at Richmond, failing to finish in the top 10 since his first career race there in 2004 when he came in eighth. Vickers finished 15th at RIR earlier this season, his second-best overall finish. A 10th-straight finish outside of the top 10 at Richmond would likely spell doom for Vickers' Chase hopes.
Others to avoid: Jamie McMurray; Martin Truex, Jr.
Tier 4 Start -- Bobby Labonte
One of Labonte's better tracks on the circuit is Richmond, where he has a 16.1 career finishing average. He has never won there, but should be able to crack the top 25 as he usually does.
Others to consider: Michael Waltrip; Elliott Sadler
Tier 4 Sit -- David Stremme
Stremme has the third-worst finishing average of any driver at Richmond, posting a 32.7 mark. He has finished 33rd or worse in four of his six attempts there, including a 38th-place result earlier this season. Look for Stremme near the back of the pack again this weekend.
Others to avoid: David Ragan; A.J. Allmendinger
Tier 5 Start -- Brad Keselowski
If Keselowski makes the field, he usually has turned in a good result this season. With a win and three top-10 finishes in eight starts, he is always a good start in Tier 5 when in the field. Keselowski, Dave Blaney or Joe Nemechek won't make Tier 5 next segment, so this could be your last chance to capitalize on the Talladega winner until next season.
Others to consider: Joe Nemechek; Dave Blaney
Tier 5 Sit -- David Gilliland
Gilliland is tied with Scott Speed for the worst finishing average of any active driver at RIR, finishing 33rd on average. The thing is, Gilliland has made six starts at Richmond and has that average while Speed has only gotten one chance. Avoid both Gilliland and Speed at all costs.
Others to avoid: Scott Speed; John Andretti
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Kyle Busch
Tier 2 -- Jeff Burton
Tier 3 -- Casey Mears
Tier 4 -- Bobby Labonte
Tier 5 -- Brad Keselowski
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