It took us 26 weeks, but we have finally made it to the most exciting time of the year. That means it's time to Chase!
The Chase for the Sprint Cup's 12-man field was set on Sunday at Richmond, with Matt Kenseth dropping out and Brian Vickers sneaking his way in with a career-best seventh-place result. Kenseth finished a disappointing 25th at RMS while Kyle Busch, who came in fifth, finished eight points short of Vickers and did not make it. Denny Hamlin won the race and earned an extra 10 points to start off The Chase.
With only 10 races to go, the slates of the 12 drivers from earlier this season have almost been wiped clean. The drivers' point totals are reset to a base of 5,000 points per driver with each driver getting 100 bonus points per win.
That means Mark Martin, who has won four races this season, currently leads the way with 5,400 points. The other 12 drivers in the Chase are Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Vickers, Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, Juan Pablo Montoya and Greg Biffle.
Those drivers will be putting the pedal to the metal over the next 10 weeks for the biggest prize in all of auto racing, The Sprint Cup points title.
The first of those races is this Sunday in Loudon, New Hampshire in the Sylvania 300.
Earlier this season at "The Magic Mile" it was rookie Joey Logano taking the checkered flag for his first and only career victory. Logano earned the win in a less than impressive fashion as he was at the front of the pack with 19 laps to go when the race was called due to rain. He'll probably explain the win to his grandchildren a bit differently.
NHMS is a one-mile flat track with only two degrees of banking, making it one of the most difficult oval tracks on the circuit. The weather in Loudon, N.H. is sometimes problematic and has frequently figured into the result as it did back in late June this year. Tracking the weather radar could be more important than having the fastest car on Sunday.
The tiers have been realigned based on the standings just prior to the final race before The Chase at Richmond. Be sure to take those changes into account before making a decision on any driver this weekend. Also, take into account that there are only 10 races in Segment 3, not 13.
I'm sticking with Johnson as my pick to win a fourth straight Sprint Cup title. Martin is clearly the sentimental favorite, but he'll have some stiff competition if he wants to win his first career points title. This is how I see it playing out, 1-12:
1. Johnson
2. Stewart
3. Martin
4. Gordon
5. Hamlin
6. Edwards
7. Kahne
8. Busch
9. Biffle
10. Vickers
11. Montoya
12. Newman
Tier 1 Start -- Denny Hamlin
Hamlin didn't need to win last week at Richmond, but it did help his title chances some by gaining an extra 10 points to start off. I like Hamlin to make it two in a row this weekend. He has a finishing average of 8.3 at the track with a win in the first race in 2007. He has only twice finished outside of the top 10 in seven career races there and should be considered among the favorites after last weekend's performance.
Others to consider: Jimmie Johnson; Jeff Gordon
Tier 1 Sit -- Juan Pablo Montoya
Montoya is certainly one of the more surprising names involved in 12-man field this season, making The Chase in his third full Sprint Cup season. However, he does not start things off at one of his better tracks, with a finishing average of 20.6 at NHMS. Considering how successful the other drivers in Tier 1 have been throughout their careers, Montoya will be tough to recommend for any race the rest of the way, especially with only 10 races to go.
Others to avoid: Kasey Kahne; Kurt Busch
Tier 2 Start -- Kyle Busch
Busch will certainly have a chip on his shoulder the rest of the season after just barely missing out on The Chase. He tied Martin for the most wins by a driver this season but will be a spectator when it comes to The Chase festivities. He has a solid track record at New Hampshire over the years and could end up winning the most races of any driver in 2009.
Others to consider: Mark Martin; Ryan Newman
Tier 2 Sit -- Matt Kenseth
Kenseth had made every single Chase since the new format began in 2004. He started off the season by winning the first two races then really tailed off the rest of the way. He now has little to race for the rest of the way and has not had much success at New Hampshire the past two years.
Others to avoid: David Reutimann; Brian Vickers
Tier 3 Start -- Joey Logano
Maybe lightning will strike twice for Logano and he'll be able to pick up the second win of his career with another checkered flag at New Hampshire. He has had some good results lately and could be in for his sixth top-10 finish of the year at least.
Others to consider: Martin Truex, Jr.; Kevin Harvick
Tier 3 Sit -- Jamie McMurray
McMurray has had some downright awful finishes at New Hampshire of late. Over his past three starts, he has failed to crack the top 30, with a finishing average of 37.7. He has only two top-10 finishes at the track in 13 career starts.
Others to avoid: Marcos Ambrose; Casey Mears
Tier 4 Start -- Elliott Sadler
Sadler is one of the few drivers in Tier 4 with top 10 finishes at New Hampshire in their career. He came in fifth in the early 2008 race at NHMS and has five top-10 finishes there in his career. Look for him to at least crack the top 25 this week, making him a good option.
Others to consider: Reed Sorenson; Bobby Labonte
Tier 4 Sit -- A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger is pretty much the worst possible option in any tier for this weekend's race. He has the worst finishing average at 36.5 and has never finished better than 32nd in four career tries. Allmendinger is having a relatively good season but this is not the week to capitalize on it.
Others to avoid: Paul Menard; David Ragan
Tier 5 Start -- Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has the highest finishing average at NHMS of any driver; finishing sixth in his lone start there back at June. If he qualifies for the race, look for him to potentially make it another top-10 finish as he gears up for a full-time Penske ride in 2010.
Others to consider: Robby Gordon; John Andretti
Tier 5 Sit -- David Gilliland
Gilliland has never finished in the top 25 at New Hampshire in his career and has finished 40th or worse in his previous two appearances there. Tier 5 drivers are tough to pick at this point, so it's nice to know you can cross one off the list
Others to avoid: Joe Nemechek; Scott Speed
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Denny Hamlin
Tier 2 -- Kyle Busch
Tier 3 -- Joey Logano
Tier 4 -- Elliott Sadler
Tier 5 -- Brad Keselowski
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