Could this really be the year that Mark Martin finally wins the Sprint Cup championship?
It's still too early to tell, but things are looking up after a win in the first Chase race at New Hampshire on Saturday.
Martin beat out a hard-charging Juan Pablo Montoya to extend his lead in the standings to 35 points over both Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin. However, the win did not come without some controversy.
Montoya, who arguably had the strongest car all day, claimed that Martin (known as one of the "nice guys" in NASCAR) "stopped on the apex" ... which means he did a brake check that prevented Montoya from passing.
The former F1 standout ended up with a third place finish. The Chase contenders dominated at NHMS, claiming eight of the top 11 finishing spots. In fact, six of the top seven finishers are all in the Chase.
Kasey Kahne had the worst opening Chase race, failing to finish due to engine failure and coming in 38th. The next-lowest Chase driver was Carl Edwards, who finished a disappointing 17th.
The Cup series moves to Dover this Sunday for the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway. This will be the second of 10 Chase races.
Dover is a one-mile oval track known as "The Monster Mile". If one driver ends up spinning at Dover, there's a pretty good chance he's taking a whole mess of cars with it into the wall. Pit road is also pretty scary at Dover, making it one of the toughest tracks that drivers have to deal with all season.
Earlier this year at Dover, it was Jimmie Johnson who dominated in the Autism Speaks 400. Johnson beat out Tony Stewart, who was charging hard toward the end of the race but Johnson led 298 laps and clearly had the best car all day. Johnson will be going for his second career season sweep at Dover.
Look for the Chase drivers to be the top finishers again this weekend, but also expect some tempers to flare if a Chase driver ends up in the wall.
Tier 1 Start -- Carl Edwards
Edwards is going to need a big turnaround at Dover after a lackluster 17th-place finish last weekend at NHMS. Fortunately, Edwards has the top finishing average of any driver at the track and has been in the top three in five of the past six races there. Expect at least a top-five finish from Edwards as he should get right back in the mix after this weekend's race.
Others to consider: Jimmie Johnson; Tony Stewart
Tier 1 Sit -- Denny Hamlin
Hamlin has been great in 2009 and turned in an impressive second-place result last weekend at NHMS. I picked Hamlin last week but am going the other way on him at Dover. Hamlin has finished outside of the top 35 in each of his past four attempts at the track and has a career finishing average of 25.6. Hamlin does carry a lot of momentum into this race, but this simply isn't the track to utilize him at.
Others to avoid: Kasey Kahne; Juan Pablo Montoya
Tier 2 Start -- Greg Biffle
Biffle is hands down the top option for this weekend's race in Tier 2. He is the defending champion of this weekend's race and has finishes in the top 10 in each of the last seven races at Dover. On top of that, Biffle has finished in the top three in four straight starts. Biffle is currently ninth in the point standings and needs a solid start, making him a no-brainer for this race.
Others to consider: Ryan Newman; Mark Martin
Tier 2 Sit -- Brian Vickers
Vickers hasn't had awful numbers at Dover in his career but hasn't really put together too many impressive performances. Only once has he finished inside of the top 10, which was back in 2005. This is his first time participating in The Chase and could see his chances at the title take another tumble this weekend after a rough 11th place finish at New Hampshire.
Others to avoid: David Reutimann; Kyle Busch
Tier 3 Start -- Jeff Burton
Burton continues to have a disappointing campaign overall, but has a chance to have a positive start at Dover. He has finished in the top 10 at the track in five of his last seven tries and pulled out a win back in 2006. Burton hasn't had a top 10 finish since Pocono back in June, but could snap out of that funk this Sunday.
Others to consider: Joey Logano; Martin Truex, Jr.
Tier 3 Sit -- Kevin Harvick
Harvick is having a miserably disappointing season and things won't likely get any better this weekend at Dover. Harvick has only one top 10 finish at Dover in his past six races, coming in 17th at the track earlier this season. He has had a few better starts of late, including a second-place finish at Atlanta a few weeks ago, but don't look in his direction this weekend.
Others to avoid: Marcos Ambrose; Casey Mears
Tier 4 Start -- David Ragan
The pickings are pretty slim in Tier 4 at Dover, so it's hard to make a good or bad choice. Ragan is a decent choice due to the fact that he has finished inside of the top 20 in three of his six career starts at Dover. A finish in the top 20 would be a pretty good result for any Tier 4 driver this weekend.
Others to consider: Bobby Labonte; Elliott Sadler
Tier 4 Sit -- David Stremme
Stremme has the second-worst finishing average of any current driver at Dover in his career at 33.0. He's pretty much the worst of the worst in Tier 4, finishing outside of the top 30 in four of his five career starts at the track.
Others to avoid: Sam Hornish, Jr.; A.J. Allmendinger
Tier 5 Start -- Robby Gordon
Gordon has had pretty good success at Dover in his career with a 23.3 finishing average. He has two top-10 finishes there in his career and has finished inside of the top 20 in four of his last five starts.
Others to consider: Michael Waltrip; David Gilliland
Tier 5 Sit -- John Andretti
Andretti has a long history of struggles at Dover over the years, failing to finish inside of the top 30 in each of his last four tries. He has had minimal success overall this season and this weekend won't likely be any different.
Others to avoid: Scott Speed; Brad Keselowski
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Carl Edwards
Tier 2 -- Greg Biffle
Tier 3 -- Jeff Burton
Tier 4 -- David Ragan
Tier 5 -- Robby Gordon
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