After coming into The Chase with the most points totaled through the first 26 races, Tony Stewart had looked rather pedestrian through the first two Chase races. He made up for it on Sunday with a critical win at Kansas Speedway.
Stewart used pit strategy late in the race to take his fourth checkered flag of the season, cutting the deficit to points leader Mark Martin to only 67, putting him in fourth overall. He took only two tires instead of four and was able to hold off a hard-charging Jeff Gordon to earn the win.
Martin, the pole-sitter, finished seventh but managed to extend his lead in the standings over Jimmie Johnson to 18 points as Johnson finished ninth at Kansas. Juan Pablo Montoya, who has been the surprise of the Chase so far, finished fourth in the race and currently sits in third in the standings, only 51 points behind Martin. The eight other Chase drivers are all 91 points behind Martin or more, with Brian Vickers bringing up the rear at 250 points back.
For the first time in history, the Chase will make a stop at Fontana, which replaced Atlanta as the fourth stop in the 10-race competition. It will be the second time the Cup series heads to California's Auto Club Speedway in 2009.
ACS is a two-mile, D-shaped superspeedway with low banking that held its first race back in 1997, a race won by Gordon. Roush Fenway racing has dominated at Fontana over the years and this weekend's race might not be all that different. However, Matt Kenseth's win at Fontana back in February is the last time a "Roushcateer" ended up in victory lane.
Back in late February, it was Kenseth taking his second straight checkered flag to open the season after leading 84 laps, with Gordon finishing second, having led 64 laps. Kenseth may not be participating in the Chase this year but will still be considered among the favorites this weekend.
Tier 1 Start -- Jeff Gordon
Gordon came in second at ACS back in February and needs to have a similarly outstanding performance this weekend to get back into the thick of things. He's currently seventh in the standings at 103 points back and would greatly improve his chances at winning the title with a win on Sunday.
Others to consider: Carl Edwards; Jimmie Johnson
Tier 1 Sit -- Tony Stewart
Just because Stewart earned a win last weekend at Kansas, it doesn't mean he's a good option this weekend at ACS. Stewart has yet to win at the superspeedway and has never finished better than fourth. Stewart will probably win at least one more race this season, but it's not likely going to be in the state of California.
Others to avoid: Juan Pablo Montoya; Kasey Kahne
Tier 2 Start -- Matt Kenseth
Kenseth opened the season with two wins and really fell off the rest of the year. If he wants to win again this season, this is his best chance to do so. He has three career wins at ACS and hasn't finished outside of the top 10 since the early race in 2005. Look for Kenseth to at least crack the top five on Sunday.
Others to consider: Brian Vickers; Kyle Busch
Tier 2 Sit -- Ryan Newman
Newman has been less than impressive at ACS over the years and his first race there this season was no exception, coming in 28th. Newman is currently in ninth place in the Chase standings, 164 points behind Martin. Don't expect him to get any closer on Sunday.
Others to avoid: David Reutimann; Greg Biffle
Tier 3 Start -- Kevin Harvick
Harvick doesn't have all that impressive of a track record at ACS in his career but has had some good results of late. He has finished inside the top 10 in two of his last three starts, finishing fourth in this event back in 2008. His finishing average of 19.4 isn't anything to write home about, but expect Harvick to vastly improve upon his 38th-place showing back in February.
Others to consider: Jamie McMurray; Jeff Burton
Tier 3 Sit -- Casey Mears
Mears has really had a tough time at ACS in recent years, failing to crack the top 10 since the early race in 2006. Mears has a finishing average of 23.7 overall but that average has ballooned to 30.7 over his past three races.
Others to avoid: Joey Logano; Marcos Ambrose
Tier 4 Start -- David Ragan
Ragan is a pretty easy pick this week considering all of the success he has had at Fontana over the years. The worst start of his career at the track came this season when he came in 17th. In five career races, Ragan has a finishing average of 14.4 at the track and should be in or around the top 15 this weekend.
Others to consider: Bobby Labonte; A.J. Allmendinger
Tier 4 Sit -- Sam Hornish, Jr.
Hornish is having an improved second full season but is still not looking like someone who could contend for the Chase. Hornish has a poor track record at Fontana so far, compiling a finishing average of 32.3, the third worst of any active Cup driver. Hornish has seven top-10 finishes this season but is not likely going to make it eight at ACS.
Others to avoid: Paul Menard; Reed Sorenson
Tier 5 Start -- David Gilliland
The pickings are pretty slim in Tier 5 this week, but Gilliland appears to be the best of the bunch. In six career races at Fontana, Gilliland has a finishing average of 25.8. With a personal best of 17th at the track, Gilliland appears to be the best of the worst this weekend.
Others to consider: John Andretti; Michael Waltrip
Tier 5 Sit -- Scott Speed
Speed's first attempt at this track back in February led to a 41st-place finish, his worst of the year. There's too small of a sample size to possibly recommend Speed this weekend, so it's likely best to just steer clear with Speed having cracked the top 10 only once this season.
Others to avoid: Brad Keselowski; Joe Nemechek
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Jeff Gordon
Tier 2 -- Matt Kenseth
Tier 3 -- Kevin Harvick
Tier 4 -- David Ragan
Tier 5 -- David Gilliland
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