I hate to start looking ahead to next season with five races to go, but it's hard to stay focused on this season when it's become pretty obvious that no one is going to even come close to catching the leader.
Jimmie Johnson won his third Chase race this past weekend at Lowe's Motor Speedway, giving him a commanding 90-point lead over Mark Martin, who looks like he might be the only driver with even a prayer to catch Johnson. The No. 48 car has won three of the five Chase races so far and is easily the favorite at this weekend's track.
Johnson finished the weekend and LMS with the top qualifying time in every practice session, earning the pole, and winning for the sixth time at the track, completing a "perfect weekend."
The Chase heads to the Piedmont Valley this weekend for the TUMS Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Martinsville will always have a special place in my heart as it was the location of my first job out of college, working for the Martinsville Bulletin. It is my favorite track and offers up some excellent short-track racing.
Martinsville is the shortest of all tracks on the Cup circuit and is one of the first paved oval tracks in the history of NASCAR. It has a paper-clip design with only 12-degree banking in the turns. There is plenty of bumping and banging on each and every turn, making smooth acceleration out of them of the utmost importance.
Johnson has completely dominated at Martinsville in recent years, having won five of the past six races held there. Earlier this season at MS, Johnson battled with Denny Hamlin down the stretch but ended up opening a pretty big gap and took home an easy checkered flag.
We should see plenty of exciting racing this weekend at Martinsville, but a result other than first for Johnson would certainly be a surprise. Johnson appears well on his way to an unprecedented fourth Cup title in a row.
Tier 1 Start -- Jimmie Johnson
It'd probably be easier to come up with reasons why you shouldn't start Johnson than why you should. Besides his five wins at MS in his last six races, Johnson has also strung together 14 top-10 finishes in a row at the track. That's one more than Jeff Gordon, who has accomplished the feat in 13 straight races. Gordon is a solid second to Johnson this week, but if you haven't used No. 48 twice during Segment 3, now is the time as he can likely cruise to the title with a win on Sunday.
Others to consider: Jeff Gordon; Denny Hamlin
Tier 1 Sit -- Kurt Busch
Busch has been decent during the Chase so far, finishing in the top 10 in four of the first five races and sitting fifth in the points. However, he will likely struggle to finish in the top 10 this weekend as he has not recorded a top 10 at Martinsville since a sixth-place result back in 2005.
Others to avoid: Carl Edwards; Kasey Kahne
Tier 2 Start -- Clint Bowyer
Bowyer has come on strong the past two weeks, recording sixth and ninth place results. He has three top-10s in his past five races and is making up for not making the Chase a little bit. He has a good shot at making it three top-10 results in a row as he has been a top-10 finisher in each of his last four races at Martinsville and has a finishing average of 12.7 overall.
Others to consider: Ryan Newman; Mark Martin
Tier 2 Sit -- David Reutimann
Reutimann has never had much luck at Martinsville in his career and his recent form this season leaves little reason to believe that his luck will change this weekend. Reutimann has finished in the top 10 in only one of his six previous races and has only nine top 10s on the year overall. He has never finished better than 17th at Martinsville, making him someone to obviously avoid.
Others to avoid: Brian Vickers; Greg Biffle
Tier 3 Start -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Earnhardt has had a real rough time this season and things have only gotten worse in recent weeks. He has spoken candidly about his failures this season and doesn't seem to have any answers as to why he has struggled. He has finished 35th or worse in three of his last five races, finishing 38th at LMS last weekend. However, he has put up great numbers at Martinsville in his career, with three top-10s at the track in a row. Look for him to snap out of his funk at Martinsville.
Others to consider: Marcos Ambrose; Jeff Burton
Tier 3 Sit -- Martin Truex, Jr.
In seven career races at Martinsville, Truex has only once finished inside the top 10, coming in 10th in this event back in 2008. He has a finishing average of 23.3 at MS in his career, finishing 29th at Martinsville earlier this season. Truex is coming off of a top-10 finish at LMS, but he is not an advisable option this weekend.
Others to avoid: Joey Logano; Casey Mears
Tier 4 Start -- Paul Menard
Menard has managed to finish inside of the top 30 in each of his first four career starts at Martinsville and has finished inside of the top 30 in each of the past four races. Look for him to again finish somewhere in the 20s at Martinsville on Sunday.
Others to consider: Bobby Labonte; David Ragan
Tier 4 Sit -- David Stremme
Stremme did not participate in either of the two races at Martinsville last season and has a 29.4 finishing average at the track overall in his career. He has had some improved finishes of late, but he is not a good choice for this weekend.
Others to avoid: Sam Hornish, Jr.; Reed Sorenson
Tier 5 Start -- Michael Waltrip
Waltrip has always put up solid numbers at Martinsville in his career and has been pretty good in recent years as well. Over the past 10 seasons, Waltrip has a finishing average of 22.2 at the track. He has surpassed that average in three of his last four races at MS and will hopefully crack the top 20 again this weekend.
Others to consider: Regan Smith; Joe Nemechek
Tier 5 Sit -- Robby Gordon
Gordon has been dreadful at Martinsville throughout his career, posting a finishing average of 33.8 overall. He has finished outside of the top 30 in each of his past seven starts, with two 40th-place results in a row.
Others to avoid: Brad Keselowski; Scott Speed
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Jimmie Johnson
Tier 2 -- Clint Bowyer
Tier 3 -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Tier 4 -- Paul Menard
Tier 5 -- Michael Waltrip
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