Everyone knows that everything is bigger in Texas. By that logic, Jimmie Johnson's lead on the field in the Sprint Cup standings can only get bigger this weekend.
Johnson didn't come away with the victory at Talladega on Sunday, but did manage to stay out of trouble and finish sixth, extending his lead in the standings to 184 points over second-running Mark Martin and 192 points ahead of third-running Jeff Gordon.
Not unexpectedly, the race was marred with more than one big accident despite NASCAR demanding the drivers not bump draft. After 450 relatively boring miles of racing, things got nasty and we ended up with an unlikely winner in Jamie McMurray, who snapped an 86-race winless streak while winning under caution.
Ryan Newman was involved in a nasty wreck with five laps remaining, landing upside down and in the grass. It took 13 minutes to cut him from the car. Somewhat ironically, Newman was one of the most outspoken drivers when Carl Edwards had a wreck in which he ended up in the fence netting and some fans suffered minor injuries in the first race in Alabama this season.
Because Johnson spent most of the race near the back of the pack, taking his sweet time, he didn't get involved in any of the nastiness that plagued the only real competition he has left. Martin finished the race in 28th and Gordon could only muster a 20th-place result.
Things aren't looking any better for the rest of the Chase field this weekend as the Cup series heads to Fort Worth for the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, where Johnson has the top finishing average of any driver in the field.
TMS is a 1.5-mile superspeedway with 24-degree banking and a quad-oval design. Drivers will near 200 miles per hour in the straightaways at the track and Brian Vickers holds the speed record at 196.235 mph. The first Cup race at TMS was held back in 1997 and was won by Jeff Burton. In the first race at Texas this year, Gordon ended up with the win and Johnson came in second.
As long as Johnson doesn't do anything too crazy or have his engine conk out three weeks in a row, he appears to be a lock for a record-breaking fourth-straight points title. Although there's not much for most of the remaining drivers to race for other than respect and prize money, Fantasy owners will continue to bite their nails right on through the final lap at Homestead.
Tier 1 Start -- Carl Edwards
Edwards holds the Texas track record for most wins, finishing in victory lane three times in his career. Now, Edwards has only three more tries to pick up his first victory of 2009 after earning the most victories of any driver in 2008. He swept at TMS in 2008, making this probably his best chance to pick up a win the rest of the year.
Others to consider: Jeff Gordon; Denny Hamlin
Tier 1 Sit -- Kasey Kahne
This is Kahne's second bad track in a row. Despite a victory back in 2006 and coming in second in his track debut in 2004, Kahne has managed just a 21.9 finishing average. He has finished outside of the top 15 in each of his five previous starts at TMS as well. He did manage a surprising runner-up result at Talladega last week, but that doesn't make him a recommended start on Sunday.
Others to avoid: Juan Pablo Montoya; Kurt Busch
Tier 2 Start -- Matt Kenseth
Kenseth has been arguably the most consistent performer at TMS through the years after Johnson. He has five top-10 finishes in a row to his credit and earned a win at the track in 2002. With a finishing average of 9.7, Kenseth is just about as close as you'll get to a lock for a top-10 finish this weekend.
Others to consider: Clint Bowyer; Mark Martin
Tier 2 Sit -- Brian Vickers
Vickers fought tooth and nail to make his way into the Chase this season, but has done little with the opportunity. He is currently dead last in the Chase standings, 556 points behind Johnson. Vickers has not yet finished inside the top 10 during the past seven races and has three finishes of 29th or worse during that span. Add that to a 22.2 finishing average at Texas and you don't likely have a top-10 finisher.
Others to avoid: David Reutimann; Ryan Newman
Tier 3 Start -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
It is not a secret that Earnhardt is having a poor 2009 campaign. However, he did end up with an 11th-place finish last weekend at Talladega, a sign that he could be in for a strong finish to the season. TMS is one of his better tracks historically, winning there on his first try back in 2000. With seven top-10 finishes in his career, Earnhardt is a sleeper to have a strong finish this weekend.
Others to consider: Jamie McMurray; Martin Truex, Jr.
Tier 3 Sit -- Joey Logano
In two career attempts at Texas, Logano has finished 40th and 30th, giving him the lowest finishing average of any active driver at 35.0. He certainly has a shot to improve on his current average there but he still isn't a recommended option.
Others to avoid: Marcos Ambrose; Casey Mears
Tier 4 Start -- John Andretti
Andretti has plenty of experience at TMS over the years, compiling a decent 29.1 finishing average at the track. If he can duplicate the 26th-place result he came away with at TMS earlier this season, Fantasy owners shouldn't complain.
Others to consider: Bobby Labonte; Paul Menard
Tier 4 Sit -- A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger has certainly seen better days. He was arrested last week on drunken driving charges and was forced to take a breathalyzer test before hitting the track at Talladega this weekend. He was also ordered to donate $10,000 to charity. On top of those issues, he has a poor finishing average of 33.0 at TMS spanning three races. Allmendinger finished outside of the top 30 in three of his last four races to boot.
Others to avoid: David Stremme; Reed Sorenson
Tier 5 Start -- Brad Keselowski
Keselowski had another solid run at Talladega last weekend and has now taken over David Stremme's car for the rest of the season. He has the highest finishing average of any Tier 5 driver at TMS, posting 19th- and 23rd-place results in the past two races at the track. Keselowski should be a force to be reckoned with in 2010, but take advantage of his full-time ride to finish off the current season now.
Others to consider: Michael Waltrip; David Gilliland
Tier 5 Sit -- Regan Smith
Smith has had his struggles at TMS over the past two seasons with a finishing average of 33.3 overall, second only to Logano for the worst average on the circuit. Having failed to finish three of his last four races he has actually participated in, Smith is not a recommended option.
Others to avoid: Scott Speed; Robby Gordon
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Carl Edwards
Tier 2 -- Matt Kenseth
Tier 3 -- Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Tier 4 -- John Andretti
Tier 5 -- Brad Keselowski
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