After a small hiccup two weeks ago, Jimmie Johnson is once again just about a lock for his fourth straight Sprint Cup points title in a row after winning last week at Phoenix.
As long as Johnson is able to finish 25th or better on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he is guaranteed the points title. The only man that can catch him is Mark Martin, who finished fourth at Phoenix and is currently 108 points behind Johnson.
Johnson was dominant this past weekend at Phoenix, leading 238 of the 312 laps run. It was his fourth win during the Chase and seventh overall this season. The win came a week after a fluke accident at Texas that allowed teammates Martin and Jeff Gordon to creep back into contention.
Another accident is likely the only thing that will keep Johnson from the 2009 title although Homestead is one of the tracks that Johnson has failed to earn a win at.
HMS has held 10 Cup races in its history, with this weekend's Ford 400 being the 11th. It is a 1.5-mile track that has only seen three organizations reach victory lane; Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Roush Fenway Racing. Expect this weekend to be no different.
Last year, it was Carl Edwards taking the checkered flag for the first time at Homestead. It was his ninth win of the season, which led all drivers. Edwards has not lived up to his 2008 performance, failing to win a race in 2009. Homestead will be his last chance and he will be one of the favorites.
The past 10 months have been great and it's sad to see the season come to an end. Hopefully there will be some excitement left for us at Homestead, but Johnson will likely steal the show once again.
Tier 1 Start -- Jeff Gordon
Gordon has surprisingly never picked up a victory at Homestead in 10 career races but has failed to finish outside of the top 10 only twice. The pressure is off as he has been mathematically eliminated from Chase contention. Look for Gordon to at least finish in the top 10 and potentially earn his first career win at the track while Johnson basks in the glory of another Cup title.
Others to consider: Carl Edwards; Tony Stewart
Tier 1 Sit -- Jimmie Johnson
Johnson has little reason to be up with the front runners on Sunday even though he says he wants to go for the win. Expect Johnson to finish better than the bare minimum of 25th, but don't expect a top-five result. In the past three seasons, he has a 10.3 finishing average at Homestead and this weekend we might see a similar result.
Others to avoid: Kurt Busch; Juan Pablo Montoya
Tier 2 Start -- Greg Biffle
Martin is certainly going to have all the incentive in the world to have a strong showing at Phoenix, but that won't necessarily result in a good finish. Martin did not run at Homestead last season and has never picked up a victory at the track. Biffle on the other hand won three straight races at HMS between 2004 and 2006 and has far less pressure on him than Martin. Both drivers are good choices, but I like Biffle's chances.
Others to consider: Clint Bowyer; Mark Martin
Tier 2 Sit -- Brian Vickers
Vickers' first Chase experience has been a complete disaster and he's not likely going to go out on a high note. He has a finishing average of 31.7 at HMS, never finishing better than 18th in six career races. I expect him to be back in the Chase in 2010, where he will hopefully have a better showing.
Others to avoid: Kyle Busch; David Reutimann
Tier 3 Start -- Martin Truex, Jr.
Truex has had surprisingly strong results at Homestead over the years, compiling a 12.5 finishing average overall. With three top-10 finishes in a row, Homestead is easily one of Truex's best tracks on the circuit. Kevin Harvick is another solid choice, but he has underperformed across the board this year
Others to consider: Kevin Harvick; Jamie McMurray
Tier 3 Sit -- Marcos Ambrose
In 2008, in his only career race at Homestead, Ambrose turned in a 42nd-place result. He will almost certainly improve upon that mark on Sunday, but his recent performances have not been all that impressive as he hasn't finished in the top 10 since Aug. 22 at Bristol.
Others to avoid: Joey Logano; Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Tier 4 Start -- Bobby Labonte
Labonte has a strong track record at Homestead through the years, with four top-10 finishes and a win back in 2003. Although his recent results haven't been as impressive at HMS in the past few years, he is still hard to bet against in Tier 4.
Others to consider: A.J. Allmendinger; David Ragan
Tier 4 Sit -- Paul Menard
In three career races at HMS, Menard has posted a 27.3 finishing average with a personal best of 17th. He is yet to record a top-10 finish this season and has not been getting any closer of late. Expect him to finish near the back of the pack on Sunday.
Others to avoid: Sam Hornish, Jr.; Elliott Sadler
Tier 5 Start -- Scott Speed
Speed finished off last season on a high note with a 16th-place result at Homestead. He will be looking to do the same in 2009 to close out a respectable rookie campaign. He won't be catching Joey Logano for the rookie of the year honors, but he can close the gap some at Homestead by finishing ahead of him.
Others to consider: Brad Keselowski; Joe Nemechek
Tier 5 Sit -- David Gilliland
Gilliland has the worst finishing average of any Tier 5 driver and a third-worst mark overall. He has not finished in the top all season and has failed to finish 14 races. Look for Gilliland to again be near the back of the pack this weekend at Homestead.
Others to avoid: John Andretti; Regan Smith
Ian's Starting Five
Tier 1 -- Jeff Gordon
Tier 2 -- Greg Biffle
Tier 3 -- Martin Truex, Jr.
Tier 4 -- Bobby Labonte
Tier 5 -- Scott Speed
