(Deadline to pick for Week 13 is Friday, Nov. 27 at 11:06 a.m. EDT)
Pittsburgh at West Virginia (Nov. 27, 7:00 p.m.)
The Panthers traveled to Morgantown two years ago and destroyed the national title hopes of West Virginia on its home field. Two years later and the scene is the same. Same field, same two teams. One thing is different. This time around it will be No. 8 Pittsburgh with slim hopes of playing for a national title while WVU attempts to play the role of spoiler. Pittsburgh enters this 102nd installment of the Backyard Brawl with a 9-1 record and at 5-0 in the Big East. Winning on Friday night is a must with only one more game looming against No. 5 Cincinnati on Dec. 5. Pittsburgh is riding a six-game winning streak since its lone loss at N.C. State back in September but have yet to play a ranked opponent. They have convincing wins over teams such as Rutgers and USF but no team has been ranked while playing against them. West Virginia went into Cincinnati last Friday and suffered a narrow 24-21 loss, which speaks volumes that they will be ready to face the Panthers this weekend. The Mountaineers have had their ups and downs but matched up well against the Bearcats as Cincy isn't the best defensive team.
Jeff's breakdown: Pittsburgh plays a whole different style from Cincinnati so the things that worked for WVU against the No. 5 team in the land likely won't against Pitt. Pitt ranks 16th in the country in scoring offense and backs it up with the 19th-best scoring defense. The Panthers create turnovers and get at the quarterback so Jarrett Brown better be ready for a battle. Like the Cincinnati-West Virginia game, this one will be close. Also like that game last Friday, this one will end with the Mountaineers coming up just short.
Nevada at Boise State (Nov. 27, 10:00 p.m.)
The Broncos are not going to lay down on Friday against Nevada, but one thing is certain: Their BCS hopes are pretty much over. With only one non-BCS team likely to make a BCS bowl game this season, only an upset loss to mediocre New Mexico would keep TCU from grabbing that spot. Therefore, there isn't anything No. 6 Boise State (11-0, 6-0 WAC) can do to improve its chances against the Wolf Pack (8-3, 7-0). That said, BSU does need to win on Friday to guarantee a WAC conference title and that should be motivation enough. Nevada was embarrassed -- and still should be -- in the opening week of the season when they lost at Notre Dame, 35-0. In fact, the Wolf Pack lost their next two games as well at Colorado State and against Missouri before ending the slide with a win over UNLV. They ride into Boise on an eight-game winning streak and the rest of their conference hasn't posed much of a challenge. The Broncos opened their season with a big win over Oregon and have been steady ever since. Led by the No. 1 passing efficiency ranking of QB Kellen Moore, the legs of Jeremy Avery and the hands of Titus Young, Boise owns the No. 1 overall scoring offense in the nation at almost 45 points per game. They back that up with the No. 15-ranked defense and the No. 2 turnover margin. Also great on special teams, the Broncos definitely have an argument with TCU, but that argument will likely go unnoticed by the BCS.
Jeff's breakdown: There is no doubt that Nevada is better than its 0-3 start to the season. Unfortunately, they aren't nearly as good as Boise State. Playing at home, the Broncos shouldn't have any trouble remaining undefeated.
Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 27, 2:30 p.m.)
When Auburn beat Ole Miss back on Oct. 31 to end a three-game losing streak it looked like they had figured something out. The high-scoring offense from earlier in the year was back and showed up even brighter the following week in a 63-31 win over Furman. Unfortunately, a loss at Georgia two weeks ago heading into last week's bye suggests this team is as mediocre as their 7-4 overall and 3-4 SEC record would suggest. Under first-year head coach Gene Chizik and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, the Tigers own the 16th-best offense in the nation and have surprised some folks with it at times, but it seems when good teams prepare for them, they generally don't have the personnel to compete. No. 2 Alabama (11-0, 7-0) remains on a crash course with Florida to meet in the SEC title game and it seems pretty unlikely that a road game at Auburn is going to stand in its way at this point. Alabama ranks No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring defense and 30th in offense. Running back Mark Ingram continues to put together huge chunks of yardage and ranks 5th in the country with over 127 yards per game. Quarterback Greg McElroy has been a solid leader and this team has the BCS title game squarely in their sights.
Jeff's breakdown: Auburn's defense is suspect at best and shouldn't be able to do much stopping of Ingram as they normally allow around 170 rushing yards per game. The two things the Tigers have going for them are their offense and home-field advantage. They won't be able to do much against the best defense in the country and although they did beat the Tide at home back in 2007, Alabama beat them 36-0 last season and we think that will be closer to the final margin.
Nebraska at Colorado (Nov. 27, 3:30 p.m.)
Last season's game ended with the Cornhuskers winning at home, 40-31, over the Buffaloes. Of course, they needed a field goal and an interception return for a touchdown with under 2 minutes remaining to win by that margin. However, that Nebraska team already had four losses and the Buffaloes already had five wins. This season, Colorado comes in much worse at 3-8 and 2-5 in conference and the 'Huskers are one game better overall. Nebraska has a four-game winning streak working with consecutive wins over Oklahoma, at Kansas and against K-State since losing back-to-back games to Texas Tech and Iowa State. Colorado upset Texas A&M, 35-34, on Nov. 7, but that win was sandwiched by four other losses and the Buffs only other wins came against Wyoming and in an upset over then-No. 17 Kansas. The Jayhawks have not won another game since and are under .500 on the year. Nebraska allows 10.3 points per game to rank third in the country in scoring defense and they are No. 8 in defense overall. Not blessed with a great offense, Big Red definitely wins with their D. Colorado is 108th in total offense and 72nd in total defense and are pretty awful on special teams as well.
Jeff's breakdown: Colorado really only has their home stadium as an advantage heading into this Friday battle. Since they have already lost at home to the likes of Colorado State and Missouri, we just can't see that being enough for them to overcome Nebraska.
Georgia at Georgia Tech (Nov. 28, 8:00 p.m.)
Georgia Tech ended a seven-year losing streak in the in-state rivalry game last season in Athens when they upset the Bulldogs at home. Tech was ranked 15th entering that game last season and Georgia No. 17, but the mystique was still there in favor of the Bulldogs playing at home. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt helped remove some of that mystique and it should be completely gone when the teams take the field on Saturday in Atlanta. That is because Georgia comes in unranked and needing a win just to finish the season with a record above .500 as they come in at 6-5 and 4-4 in the SEC. The Yellow Jackets, on the other end of the spectrum, come in ranked No. 7 with a 10-1 overall and 7-1 ACC record. Tech has secured a spot in the ACC title game on the heels of their No. 2-ranked rushing offense. Nesbitt has been phenomenal this season with 16 rushing touchdowns to go with eight more passing scores and RB Jonathan Dwyer is among the nation's best backs and a future top NFL draft pick. Tech ranks 11th and 12th, respectively, in scoring and total offense and the defense has been solid as well. Georgia, on the other hand, just lost at home to Kentucky and hasn't been all that good on either side of the football this season. Coach Mark Richt is having one of his toughest years at the helm and his seat is officially hot.
Jeff's breakdown: While a regular-season ending win would be great to help cool that seat for Richt, his team simply doesn't possess the ability to hang with the Yellow Jackets this season. Georgia's biggest strength is its rush defense, which is a good sign for the 'Dawgs, but they are still not good enough at that to stop the Jackets' attack. Unfortunately for the folks in Athens, they are staring at a .500 record to end the season.
Clemson at South Carolina (Nov. 28, 12:00 p.m.)
Clemson topped in-state rival South Carolina last season at home, 31-14, with both teams ending the contest two games over .500. This season, the Gamecocks need to return the favor in their house just to remain over the .500 mark as they come into the game at 6-5 and 3-5 in conference, riding a three-game losing streak after a closer-than-expected loss against No. 1 Florida two weeks ago. The Tigers were unranked with an interim coach in Dabo Swinney when they won last season. Swinney was retained and awarded the head job, largely based on that win against USC last season, and the Tigers come into the game at 8-3 with a 6-2 record in the ACC Coastal division and are ranked No. 15. Clemson dominated Virginia for its sixth-straight win last Saturday and have already locked up a place in the ACC title game against Georgia Tech on Dec. 5.
Jeff's breakdown: Clemson continues to ride the legs of C.J. Spiller on offense as QB Kyle Parker has been solid yet unspectacular. Clemson is decent offensively but they win with that 12th-ranked defense. The Gamecocks are pretty good on defense themselves as they come in ranked 17th. Although their coach Steve Spurrier is known for throwing around the pigskin, Carolina's offense has been awful this season. Still, the only game USC has lost this season at home was the game against the Gators. Clemson is no Florida and since this game doesn't mean much to the Tigers' BCS chances since they'd still need to beat the Yellow Jackets in the conference title game, we think South Carolina will have just enough to pull the upset at home on Saturday.
Mississippi at Mississippi State (Nov. 28, 12:21 p.m.)
Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt called his first experience in the Egg Bowl against rival Mississippi State "total domination" after a 45-0 win in Oxford last season. As Nutt prepares to coach his second Egg Bowl, only the location is different from last season's game. Mississippi once again comes in ranked, though the Rebels are five spots higher at No. 20 and have one more win than at this point last year. The Bulldogs once again enter the game at 4-7 and after being dominated in consecutive weeks against Alabama and Arkansas, they appear ripe for another bashing at the hands of Nutt's Rebels on Saturday. The weapons that led the Rebels to last year's win return as quarterback Jevan Snead and RB Dexter McCluster continue to make big plays. Plus, Ole Miss wins with a defense that ranks inside the top 20 in the nation. MSU actually possesses a top rushing offense led by Anthony Dixon, who ranks 6th in the nation with almost 126 yards per game. However, because of a passing offense ranked 109th and a defense that gives up way too many yards and points, Dixon hasn't made much of a difference in the win column.
Jeff's breakdown: This game will be different than last year's game. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, however, the only differences will be the upset fans in the stands and a slightly closer margin of victory for the Rebels.
Miami (Fla.) at South Florida (Nov. 28, 3:30 p.m.)
The Miami Hurricanes have definitely gone in the right direction in the last few years. Finishing 2007 with a 5-7 record, the 'Canes were 7-6 last year and have a chance, if they can finish strong with wins at South Florida and in their bowl game, to end with 10 wins for the first time since 2003. No. 19 Miami (8-3, 5-3 ACC) has had an up and down season. Predicted to falter out of the gate due to a ridiculously tough schedule, QB Jacory Harris and company jumped out to start 5-1 including wins over, at the time, No. 18 FSU, No. 14 Georgia Tech and No. 8 Oklahoma. They have since struggled at times with losses to Clemson at home and at North Carolina and Harris went from early Heisman contender to being among the NCAA's leaders in interceptions thrown. They had a little more trouble with Duke last weekend than the final score suggests but all in all, Miami is staring down a 10-win season. Immediately standing in their way is USF (7-3, 3-3 Big East). The Bulls have also spent time among the ranked this season and had their own struggles. They lost senior QB Matt Grothe midseason and freshman B.J. Daniels has been solid in his stead. Two of the team's three losses have come against the best two teams in the Big East (Pitt and Cincinnati) but the other was a glaring 31-0 loss at Rutgers. The Bulls rebounded by beating Louisville last week and can also finish with 10 wins if they can win their final three contests.
Jeff's breakdown: South Florida matches up well with Miami because the Hurricanes are a better passing team and the Bulls are much better defending the aerial attack. In general, the Bulls play tougher defense than do the 'Canes. Neither team is playing their best football right now. The last time these two teams met was back in 2005 when No. 9 Miami won at home, 27-7. Just like last time, the home team will walk away victorious in this one.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (Nov. 28, 12:30 p.m.)
Oh, how the Bedlam can change from one year to the next. Last season in Stillwater, the Bedlam rivalry game saw No. 3 OU roll over No. 11 OSU, 61-41, in the highest scoring game in the series' history. The funny thing is that Oklahoma State will invade Norman on Saturday still ranked 11th in the country. In an ugly turn of events, the Sooners are without QB Sam Bradford, TE Jermaine Gresham, are unranked and threatening to finish at or under .500 and can barely hope to play in a Christmas-time bowl, let alone anywhere near New Year's. Oklahoma (6-5, 4-3 Big 12) has been teetering on the brink of destruction all season since losing two of its best players. The team has not beaten one program still ranked within the Top 25 at this point and their last three games have included two ugly losses at Nebraska and Texas Tech. The Red Raiders trounced them in every way last Saturday and with one game remaining against the ranked Cowboys, a 6-6 season seems like a very real possibility. OSU (9-2, 6-1) has only losses early to Houston and against Texas on its record, though they did struggle with Colorado last Thursday.
Jeff's breakdown: Oklahoma has struggled throwing the football of late as Bradford's backup Landry Jones has thrown six touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last three contests. OU should be able to take advantage of the Cowboys' poor pass defense, but if they can't, they are in trouble. OSU is one of the most stout programs in the nation against the run. On the other hand, Oklahoma continues to rank 11th in total defense and it only averages 15 points allowed per game. This shouldn't bother the Cowboys, who put up points in bunches, but this is definitely going to be a close contest. Although Oklahoma isn't as good this season as in previous years, the Bedlam game will still be fun to watch. In the end, it will be the Sooners finishing their regular season on a high note.
Florida State at Florida (Nov. 28, 3:30 p.m.)
This annual rivalry game was played in Tallahassee last season and still the eventual National Champion Florida Gators rolled to a 45-15 laugher. It wasn't even a contest as Tim Tebow threw three touchdown passes and ran for 80 yards and another score in what was the most points Florida had ever scored in Doak Campbell Stadium. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, who are 6-5 and 4-4 in the ACC, they are decidedly worse this season. Furthermore, Florida is ranked No. 1 and playing at home in Gainesville. In a game some are speculating might be Bobby Bowden's last visit to the Swamp, it doesn't seem like the 'Noles have much of a chance. Florida State assured making a pre-New Year's Day bowl game last weekend by narrowly overcoming woeful Maryland. The Seminoles danced and celebrated a win over a team with a 2-9 record that clearly makes them the worst team in the ACC. The FSU that used to pose such a challenge each and every year to its rivals is simply not the team the Gators will host on Saturday.
Jeff's breakdown: Florida has run the table this season and currently has the nation's longest winning streak spanning two seasons and 21 games. They have been nearly unbeatable in the Swamp, possess the nation's No. 10 scoring offense and No. 1 overall scoring defense and are quarterbacked by a guy looking for a second Heisman Trophy. Florida is already set to meet Alabama in the SEC title game for a chance to play in the BCS National Championship for the third time in four years. With Bowden's tenure nearing an end, if there was ever a time that Florida State wanted to beat the odds and topple the Gators in the Swamp, this is that game. Will it happen? Not even a chance.
Missouri at Kansas (Nov. 28, 3:30 p.m.)
Last season, this annual rivalry game mattered. Two seasons ago the game between the Tigers and Jayhawks really mattered. This season? Not so much. This is the first time in three years that both teams come in unranked and Kansas seems in shambles with the future of coach Mark Mangino in doubt and a bowl game highly unlikely. Missouri (7-4, 3-4 Big 12) has had better fortunes this season and are headed to a bowl game that would be made sweeter if it can send Kansas to its seventh straight loss to end the season. Kansas actually possesses the 11th-best passing attack in the nation under QB Todd Reesing but the product as a whole seems well inferior than the sum of its parts and it looks like the Jayhawks are in turmoil at the moment. Mizzou started the year hot, stumbled in the middle against Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas and Baylor but have since regrouped with wins at Kansas State and against Iowa State. QB Blaine Gabbert leads a 16th-ranked passing game and he throws to the nation's third-best receiver in Danario Alexander.
Jeff's breakdown: I think it is quite obvious which way we're leaning on this one. This game is going to be played in Lawrence but will there be any fans in the stands? Kansas is a basketball school and with Bill Self's Jayhawks ranked inside the top five, does anyone care about the football team anymore? Missouri should win this one handily.
Utah at BYU (Nov. 28, 5:00 p.m.)
In a battle between the "other" top programs in the Mountain West, both No. 18 BYU and No. 22 Utah enter this game in Provo with records of 9-2 and 6-1 in conference. Both teams have lost their games against TCU, the league's best team, with Utah also dropping one at Oregon, 31-24, and BYU losing to Florida State, 54-28. Despite the Cougars' higher ranking, the loss to the Seminoles is definitely tougher to swallow than getting beaten by the Ducks. That said, BYU remains two spots ahead of the Utes in the BCS standings. Utah has not beaten a ranked opponent this season while BYU beat then-No. 3 Oklahoma in its season opener. Of course, BYU, the nation's 10th-best offense, has struggled in its last two games, narrowly escaping with close wins over New Mexico and Air Force. Utah also struggled against the Falcons but has otherwise blasted opponents this season. In contrast to BYU, Utah possesses one of the country's better defenses.
Jeff's breakdown: Utah won this game last season pretty easily at home, 48-28. The rankings say that BYU is the better team this time around and this will be a home game for the Cougars. The Cougars are pretty solid defensively as well as being a top-ranked offense and, playing at home, should win in a close one over the Utes on Saturday.
Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov. 28, 8:00 p.m.)
Stanford lost to Notre Dame last season in South Bend, 28-21. The Cardinal smell blood as they enter this year's contest and are ready to bury the 6-5 Irish in Palo Alto. Stanford is 7-4 and 6-3 in the Pac-10 this season. They have lately been playing some very good football with consecutive upset wins over Oregon and at USC but they suffered a big letdown last weekend against California in the battle of Bay Area teams and can no longer win a Pac-10 title this season. Make no mistake though, Stanford, under coach Jim Harbaugh, is the real deal. Running back Toby Gerhart is third in the nation with almost 140 yards per game on the ground and until last weekend's loss, quarterback Andrew Luck had been steady and solid all year. Notre Dame, on the other hand, continues to rack up yards as the nation's 11th-best offense but the Irish don't often turn those yards into points and that defense in horrid. That is why the Irish are currently gasping for air to stay above .500, having lost their last three games -- two of which came at home -- against Navy, at Pitt and in double overtime against Connecticut. The last loss to UConn is especially embarrassing as we felt just the atmosphere in South Bend alone would be enough to have the Huskies feeling a bit overwhelmed. It wasn't so and it will likely cost coach Charlie Weis his job.
Jeff's breakdown: Notre Dame went from hoping for a BCS berth and a 10-win season to scratching and clawing just to get invited to a bowl at all. Stanford is having the complete opposite season. They have seemingly come out of nowhere to overachieve and their coach is one of the hottest commodities on the market right now. The Trees have everything left to play for and the Irish have all but given up. Stanford would win on talent alone but just about everything seems to be in its favor in this one. It could get ugly real fast for Notre Dame.
Arkansas at LSU (Nov. 28, 7:00 p.m.)
Quarterback Casey Dick ended his college career in Little Rock by throwing a last-minute 24-yard game-winning touchdown pass to London Crawford as Arkansas topped the LSU Tigers, 31-30, last season. The victory didn't propel the Razorbacks to a bowl game that season but became the building blocks for what Arkansas has been able to do this year. Dick is gone but his replacement, Ryan Mallett, ranks third in the nation in passing efficiency and 13th in total offense, leading the SEC in both categories. Mallett has led the Hogs to a 7-4 overall and 3-4 conference record and all but assured them of going to a solid bowl. LSU is a different team this season, too. The Tigers lost that game last season to drop to 7-5 but come into this year's game at No. 17 in the nation with a record of 8-3 and 4-3 in the SEC. LSU is led by its defense as the Tigers allow just over 322 yards and just under 15 points per game. The Tigers must rebound from a loss at Ole Miss last weekend and have actually lost two of their last three as they fell at Alabama back on Nov. 7. Coach Les Miles' Tigers are clearly in the upper echelon of the SEC but have also proven far less talented than both the Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. Arkansas struggled early in the year but five of the first seven teams they faced were either ranked at the time or have spent time in the rankings this season. They lost by 11 to Georgia, were walloped at Alabama, dominated at Texas A&M and at home against then-No. 17 Auburn, lost a close game they easily could have won at No. 1 Florida and then fell at Ole Miss, a team that was in the Top 5 in the country at one point this year. Since that game, Arkansas has won four straight in convincing fashion and looks like one of the better teams in the conference right now.
Jeff's breakdown: Both teams are improved from last season's game but the contest still shapes up to be a barnburner. The Tigers can be beaten on the ground, but as we've said, the Hogs are an aerial attack, ranking 8th in passing offense but 77th on the ground. Arkansas' weakness is clearly the defense, which is ranked 95th in the nation. That would be an awful disadvantage against most ranked opponents but the Tigers are far and away the weakest offensive team in the Top 25 right now as they gain just over 300 yards per game and struggle just as much on the ground as they do through the air. This game is being played in Death Valley but we like the Hogs to enter the Bayou and leave with their season's biggest win yet.
UCLA at USC (Nov. 28, 10:00 p.m.)
The Trojans host the Bruins in the annual battle of Los Angeles-area teams but this game will feel different than so many of the others in this series. That is because No. 24 USC, a powerhouse for years now, is 7-3 and 4-3 in the Pac-10 with any hopes of making the Rose Bowl gone. Instead, Pete Carroll's Trojans have work to do just to make the Holiday Bowl. The Bruins (6-5, 3-5) would love to further embarrass their rivals by beating them in their own house and are coming in on a three-game winning streak. The wins came against the conference's bottom feeders (Washington, Washington State and Arizona State) but UCLA is definitely high on confidence at the moment. While the Trojans might be playing with a slight feeling of disappointment, UCLA is going to pour their blood, sweat and tears into beating their once high-and-mighty rival. The Trojans are coming off a bye that followed one of the worst losses in the Pete Carroll era, a 55-21 thrashing by Stanford. USC has failed to top 21 points in any of its past three games, two of which were losses. The offense, led by freshman QB Matt Barkley, ranks 49th with just over 400 yards per game and they don't turn that into points consistently enough. The defense really hasn't been much better, either.
Jeff's breakdown: For as bad as USC has been this season, UCLA has been far worse. The Bruins lost five straight before this current three-game winning streak. UCLA relies on its defense, which frankly isn't that great, because the offense has been abysmal, ranking 89th in the country. They may be on a winning streak, but outside of the whipping they gave to Washington State, the other two were close games. This is still a home game and USC is still ranked with a good amount of talent and Carroll as the coach. That should be more than enough for the Trojans to come away victorious.
