Week 5 Pick 'Em: Sooners back in South Fla.
(Deadline to pick for Week 3 is Thursday, Oct. 1 at 7:25 p.m. EDT)
Colorado at West Virginia (Oct. 1, 7:30 p.m)
Colorado pulled a stunning upset of No. 21 ranked West Virginia last season. While the Mountaineers rolled up 311 rushing yards, Colorado escaped with a 17-14 overtime win on their home turf. West Virginia kicker Pat McAfee missed a chip shot field goal in overtime, but Colorado kicker Aric Goodman hit from 25 yards out to send the Buffs to the upset victory. Last year's game was played in front of a national TV audience on Thursday and the circumstances are much the same in 2009. Only this time, neither team is ranked and both squads are coming off byes. Colorado (1-2) finally won their first game with a 24-0 drubbing of Wyoming two weeks ago and West Virginia (2-1) lost their first game against Auburn (40-31). The Mountaineers offense is led by quarterback Jarrett Brown and running back Noel Devine. Brown will play despite a minor shoulder injury suffered against Auburn, and Devine is looking to run all over the Buffs again after racking up 133 yards on the ground last season. Colorado running back Rodney Stewart, who is coming off a breakout game against Wyoming, also ran wild in the 2008 matchup as he put 166 rushing yards on the board.
Hurc's breakdown: Dan Hawkins is still having his issues getting the Colorado program on track. West Virginia head coach Bill Stewart has had little trouble as head coach since taking over for Rich Rodriguez. The Mountaineers had Auburn on the ropes in Week 3 before faltering late, so they seem better prepared heading into Week 5. We don't see another upset and West Virginia will take care of Colorado on Thursday.
Washington at Notre Dame (Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m.)
Maybe this game has lost a little of its luster since former Notre Dame head coach Ty Willingham is no longer roaming the Washington sidelines and dying to embarrass his former employers. However, we expect a good battle between the Huskies and Fighting Irish on Saturday. These two schools have played seven times and Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0. The Irish had one of their more impressive wins in 2008 against Washington. They raced past the Huskies, 33-7, behind 84 rushing yards and two touchdowns from James Aldridge. Washington managed just nine first downs and 124 total yards. They avoided their first shutout loss at home since 1976 when D'Andre Goodwin caught a 6-yard touchdown pass from Ronnie Fouch with 2:56 left. Washington was without quarterback Jake Locker, who injured his wrist earlier in the year. Locker is back in 2009 and operating first-year coach Steve Sarkisian's offense. The Huskies are 2-2 after getting crushed by Stanford, 34-14, on Saturday. This came a week after Washington upset USC. Notre Dame (3-1) won a second straight game in Week 4 as quarterback Jimmy Clausen hit Kyle Rudolph with a 2-yard pass on fourth-and-goal with 25 seconds left. Notre Dame squeaked out a 24-21 win at Purdue.
Hurc's breakdown: Notre Dame did look a little lost at times last week without wide receiver Michael Floyd (collarbone) and running back Armando Allen (ankle). However, Allen is expected back for the Washington game. It's tough to read Washington. They have gotten up for the big games this season and let down against the teams they should have dominated. They should be pumped to take on the Irish and we expect Washington to finally get a win over Notre Dame. We don't see the Irish pulling off more late-game heroics.
Southern Cal at California (Oct. 3, 8:00 p.m.)
The 97th meeting of USC/Cal will take place Saturday at Memorial Stadium. USC holds an impressive advantage in this series, 61-30-5. The Trojans have won the last five games, including a 17-3 victory in 2008. Both teams come into this game 3-1, but Cal is still licking their wounds after a 42-3 loss to Oregon on Saturday. The Golden Bears took a plummet down the rankings from being in the top 10 to No. 19 in the coaches poll and No. 24 in the AP poll. USC is back in the top 10 in both polls after rebounding from a shocking loss to Washington two weeks ago. USC got back on track with a 27-6 win against Washington State in the Coliseum. Defense continues to be a strong point for the Trojans, who rank in the top 10 in both scoring (10.0 ppg) and total defense (227.0 ypg). They are still trying to work out the kinks on offense after Matt Barkley (shoulder) returned from a one-week absence against Wazzu. Cal was really moving the ball, especially behind running back Jahvid Best (116.8 ypg), before running into a stone wall in Oregon. Perhaps they were looking ahead to their showdown with USC. Cal will need Best to be on top of his game Saturday if they want to win. He managed just 30 rushing yards on 13 attempts last season vs. USC.
Hurc's breakdown: The Golden Bears have won nine in a row at home with their last loss coming against USC on Nov. 10, 2007. The Trojans know how to win at Berkeley, having won their 8 of the last 11 times and 26 of 34. We know Cal will give a much better effort in Week 5 after such a poor one last week, but USC is still the better team and should grind out a victory.
Arkansas at Texas A&M (Oct. 3, 7:30 p.m.)
"Build it and they will come." That seems to be the message Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is getting. After hosting Oklahoma-BYU earlier this year, the Cowboys new digs in Arlington, Texas, will now play host to Arkansas and Texas A&M on Saturday. These two teams have not met since 1991, Arkansas' final season in the defunct Southwest Conference. The Razorbacks lead the all-time series with Texas A&M, 38-24-3. This year's showdown will be just the second time the two have ever played outside of Fayetteville, Little Rock or College Station. However, it shouldn't dim the intensity. Arkansas (1-2) is down coming off two straight SEC losses to Georgia and Alabama. However, coach Bobby Petrino has been able to do some impressive things on offense with quarterback Ryan Mallett. The Razorbacks have the fourth best pass offense (348.7 ypg) and will be looking to test a pass defense that is allowing 206 yards per game (53rd). After going 4-8 in 2008, the Aggies are off to a 3-0 start in 2009. They have the nation's top ranked offense (574.3 ypg) and are averaging 45 points per game (4th). Quarterback Jerrod Johnson looked awfully good in a Week 4 win against UAB. He rolled up 351 total yards (290 passing) and six touchdowns (three rushing). He did all that without his favorite receiver Jeff Fuller, who is still out a few weeks with broken leg.
Hurc's breakdown: These two teams have split the last 10 matchups but the Aggies have won the last two meetings. However, six of the last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less. We expect this to be a shootout and we feel Arkansas will squeak out the win since they have been tested early on. We just aren't sure what to make of this A&M team with an opening slate against New Mexico, Utah State and UAB.
Auburn at Tennessee (Oct. 3, 7:45 p.m.)
A new chapter in the Auburn/Tennessee rivalry kicks off Saturday. It will be the first matchup of head coaches Gene Chizik (Auburn) and Lane Kiffin (Tennessee). It also marks the first time since 1982 that neither team is ranked, although Auburn is knocking at the door after a 4-0 start. Auburn took the victory, 14-12, from Tennessee on the Plains last season, but this rivalry is now headed to Knoxville, Tenn., where the Vols have won 14 of 24 games against the Tigers. Auburn has looked awfully sharp in its first four games under Chizik and first-year offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. While there are still some issues to work out on defense, Auburn ranks third in total (526.3 ypg) and scoring offense (45.3 ppg). Malzahn's spread offense is looking great behind quarterback Chris Todd, running backs Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb, and receivers Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery. Tennessee is 2-2 to begin the season and have used a strong defensive effort behind first-year coordinator Monte Kiffin to help right the ship after a 5-7 season in 2008. The passing offense is a little suspect thanks to quarterback Jonathan Crompton, but the rushing game (197.3 ypg) is just fine behind Montario Hardesty, who is averaging 121.5 yards per game (8th).
Hurc's breakdown: Auburn has held Tennessee to less than 300 yards of total offense in each of the last three meetings. The Tigers are allowing 327.8 yards per game, so Tennessee might finally break that curse. The Vols are also 13-2 all-time on Oct. 3 and have not lost on that date since 1953. The last Oct. 3 contest was a 17-9 win over Auburn in 1998. However, we feel that run will definitely be broken Saturday as Auburn's offense will be just too much for the Vols.
Florida State at Boston College (Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m.)
Boston College went down to Doak Campbell Stadium in 2008 and came away with a 27-17 win over the Seminoles. Eagles running back Montel Harris rushed for 121 yards and a score, while Florida State was held to 256 yards and quarterback Christian Ponder was picked off three times. Florida State will be looking for payback Saturday as they now make the trek to Chestnut Hill, Mass. Florida State is in a world of hurt after a stunning, 17-7, loss to South Florida on Saturday. The Seminoles are 2-2, but their only impressive win came on the road at BYU (54-28). Ponder is still calling the shots for FSU, but the Seminoles offense has definitely been inconsistent. Boston College (3-1) pulled off a 27-24 overtime win against Wake Forest in Week 4. The biggest surprise in the game was the play of quarterback Dave Shinskie, who has replaced Justin Tuggle under center. Shinskie threw for 228 yards and three touchdowns in the win and it finally seems Boston College has the replacement for Chris Crane, who graduated last season.
Hurc's breakdown: Florida State owns the slight edge in this series, 4-3. The away team has won all four games since Boston College joined the ACC in 2005. We will play that note in this matchup and take the Seminoles, who really can't afford another embarrassing loss after the display they put on Saturday.
Georgia Tech at Mississippi State (Oct. 3, 7:30 p.m.)
Georgia Tech will be met with a couple of firsts when they play Mississippi State on Saturday. While they hold the 3-0 edge in the series, Georgia Tech has yet to play a game in Starkville, Miss., and will be facing Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen for the first time. This Mississippi State team is not the same one that showed up in Atlanta last year and was humiliated, 38-7. Georgia Tech rolled up 500 yards (438 rushing) and was led by running back Jonathan Dwyer, who managed 141 rushing yards on nine carries. Mississippi State posted 407 yards, but only managed a fourth-quarter touchdown. The culture in Starkville has already been changed thanks to Mullen, who has the Bulldogs at 2-2. His spread offense is quickly developing and Mississippi State almost managed a top 10 upset of LSU on Saturday, but couldn't convert twice just inches away from the Tigers' goal line late in the fourth quarter. Even with the coaching change, running back Anthony Dixon remains the Bulldogs' workhorse. He is 14th in the country in rushing (107.0 ypg). The Yellow Jackets (3-1) are coming off an impressive home win against North Carolina. They rebounded nicely after losing to Miami (Fla.) two weeks ago. Georgia Tech relies heavily on its triple-option attack, which is still paced by Dwyer and quarterback Josh Nesbitt. Georgia Tech is fourth in rushing (262.0 ypg).
Hurc's breakdown: With the way Mississippi State played last week, we wouldn't be shocked one bit if they beat Georgia Tech. However, Rome was not built in one day. Paul Johnson has done a great job in a short time at Georgia Tech and the Ramblin' Wreck should walk out of Starkville with a 4-0 record in this series.
LSU at Georgia (Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m.)
It's not college football anymore without a top 25 matchup from the SEC on a weekly basis. This week's bout features No. 4 LSU traveling to play No. 18 ranked Georgia. While LSU holds the series lead, 14-12-1, the Bulldogs have won the last three matchups. Georgia went in to Baton Rouge, La., last season and stomped the Tigers, 52-38. Darryl Gamble returned an interception 40 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the game and Georgia never looked back. It was a No. 9 vs. No. 11 matchup in 2008 with Georgia being the higher ranked team. LSU (4-0) now plays the favorite after holding on for a 30-26 win Saturday against Mississippi State. The receiving duo of Terrance Toliver and Brandon LaFell has been the storyline for LSU in the early season. But negative aspects have been an inconsistent offense and a defense that has looked lost at times under first-year coordinator John Chavis. For Georgia, it has won three straight games after losing in the opener to Oklahoma State. It's been no easy task for the Bulldogs. While having to replace quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno, Georgia has faced quality opponents in South Carolina, Arkansas and Arizona State. Georgia is coming off a thrilling 20-17 win over the Sun Devils. Wide receiver A.J. Green blocked a go-ahead field goal by ASU late in the fourth quarter and had a huge catch on Georgia's final drive that setup a 37-yard game-winning field goal from Blair Walsh as time expired.
Hurc's breakdown: Georgia is 1-1 against top 10 teams at home under Mark Richt. The Bulldogs are also 20-5 against the SEC West under Richt, including 9-1 in the last four seasons. They already beat Arkansas this season and we feel they will take care of LSU on Saturday.
Michigan at Michigan State (Oct. 3, noon)
The Michigan-Michigan State rivalry is noted by one phrase -- the Paul Bunyan Trophy. These two Michigan rivals have been playing each other for more than a century, but only introduced the Paul Bunyan Trophy in 1953. The 102nd meeting will take place Saturday. Michigan holds the 67-29-5 advantage over Michigan State. However, the home team has won 13 of the last 17 games in the series, with the lone road victories coming in 1997, 2003, and 2005 by the Wolverines and last year by the Spartans. Michigan surely hasn't forgotten the 35-21 loss to Michigan State in the Big House, but both teams are in different places from a year ago. Michigan (4-0) is experiencing great success behind true freshman quarterback Tate Forcier, who will play Saturday despite a bum shoulder. Michigan State (1-3), on the other hand, is reeling after three straight losses and looks like the team that can barely keep its head above water. They sorely wish Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer were still on campus, but must make do with Kirk Cousins, Keith Nichol, Larry Caper and Caulton Ray.
Hurc's breakdown: Even if Forcier isn't 100 percent, he still has enough talent to get the job done. It's not like Michigan can't turn to fellow freshman Denard Robinson, who has lightning speed. Michigan will win the Paul Bunyan Trophy for a 35th time.
N.C. State at Wake Forest (Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m.)
N.C. State pulled out a 21-17 win over the Demon Deacons in 2008 thanks to a fourth-quarter touchdown and being able to keep Wake Forest off the scoreboard in the final period. Wolfpack quarterback Russell Wilson accounted for three touchdowns (two passing) and it was enough to spoil the career day from Wake wide receiver Marshall Williams, who accounted for seven catches, 116 yards and one touchdown. It was a rainy and windy day at Carter-Finley Stadium last season, so the two teams can only hope for better weather as this game is being played at BB&T Field. Wake Forest (2-2) is coming off an overtime loss to Boston College Saturday. Quarterback Riley Skinner was able to pass for 354 yards, but a costly fumble in overtime gave the game to Boston College. N.C. State (3-1) pulled off a terrific comeback win over the Pitt Panthers last week. Wilson passed for 322 yards and four touchdowns, as he rallied the troops from a 31-17 deficit for a 38-31 victory.
Hurc's breakdown: The Wolfpack are actually 12-8 on Wake's home turf. While the Demon Deacons have been a little sketchy in 2009, the Wolfpack have actually been pretty impressive outside of a 7-3 loss to South Carolina in the opener. N.C. State has the nation's top ranked defense (201.3 ypg) and it finally seems to be coming together in coach Tom O'Brien's third season. We like the Wolfpack to reel off a fourth straight win.
Oklahoma at Miami (Fla.) (Oct. 3, 8:00 p.m.)
In arguably the most interesting matchup of the weekend, this top 25 matchup features two storied programs in Miami (Fla.) and Oklahoma. As in any good rivalry, the series is deadlocked at 3. Oklahoma won the last encounter in 2007, 51-13. The Hurricanes were the hottest team in America after beating Florida State and Georgia Tech to open the season. However, Virginia Tech cooled them off in a big way on Saturday amid the slush in Blacksburg, Va. The Hokies trounced the Hurricanes, 31-7. Nothing went right for Miami, who managed just 209 yards. Star quarterback Jacory Harris dropped in the Heisman race after completing just 9 of 25 passes for 150 yards. He will look to get back on track against an Oklahoma team ranked first in scoring defense (4.7 ppg). The Sooners might also get a lift on offense if quarterback Sam Bradford, who sprained his shoulder in the opener against BYU, is cleared to play. Oklahoma, which is coming off a bye, has won its last two games behind redshirt freshman quarterback Landry Jones, who threw for a school record six touchdowns in a win two weeks ago against Tulsa.
Hurc's breakdown: The Sooners are 10-8 all-time playing games in Miami and 1-2 at Land Shark Stadium. Their most recent outing was a 24-10 loss to Florida in January's national title game. Even if Oklahoma is without Bradford, we feel they still have too many weapons for the Hurricanes to contain. Oklahoma will erase those nasty memories of losing to Florida with an impressive win over Miami.
Oregon State at Arizona State (Oct. 3, 7:00 p.m.)
Both teams come into Saturday's showdown after having lost close games in Week 4. Arizona State went down to Georgia and lost by a field goal to the Bulldogs. Oregon State was handed a second straight home loss by Arizona, which won 37-32. This is the Pac-10 opener for the Sun Devils (2-1), while Oregon State (2-2) will be looking to avoid a second conference loss and third straight overall. Arizona State is 24-10-1 against Oregon State, but the Beavers won the 2008 matchup in Corvallis, Ore. ASU did knock out starting quarterback Lyle Moeavo with a shoulder injury that's still bothering him a year later. However, Sean Canfield entered the game and led Oregon State to a 27-25 victory behind 218 passing yards and two scores. The Rodgers brothers were also instrumental as Jacquizz rushed for 133 yards and James posted 102 receiving yards. Arizona State got four field goals from All-American kicker Thomas Weber last season, but will be without his services Saturday after tearing his groin a few weeks ago. Freshman kicker Bobby Wenzig had a crucial kick blocked late in the loss against Georgia. Arizona State is ranked third in total defense (211.0 ypg) and 11th in scoring defense (12.3 ppg).
Hurc's breakdown: Arizona State has played Oregon State eight times in Pac-10 openers. They are 6-2. ASU is 18-3 all-time against the Beavers in Tempe, Ariz., and we expect them to continue their dominance on Saturday. Look for Arizona State to send Oregon State to a third straight loss.
Penn State at Illinois (Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m.)
After losing to the Illini in 2007, Penn State exacted some must-needed revenge in 2008 with a 38-24 win. Quarterback Daryll Clark was an efficient 14 of 20 for 181 yards and two touchdowns, and Evan Royster rushed for 139 yards. Penn State (3-1) could use another game like that after losing at home to Iowa, 21-10, on Saturday. Clark threw three interceptions and Royster averaged just 4.1 yards per carry. Illinois (1-2) is coming off a bye, but the last time they took the field they were embarrassed by Ohio State, 30-0. Illinois hasn't done a lot of good things in 2009. The Illini rank 108th in scoring offense (18.0 ppg) and 90th in total defense (386.0 ypg). Illinois really needs quarterback Juice Williams to get on track, but it could be difficult going up against a team ranked in the top 10 in total (233.8 ypg) and scoring defense (10.3 ppg).
Hurc's breakdown: Penn State is 13-3 all-time against Illinois with Joe Paterno an impressive 11-2. These two teams have played regularly since 1993 with Penn State winning 10 of 12 times in that span. They will make it 11 of 13 on Saturday since Illinois doesn't seem to be in a rhythm.
UCLA at Stanford (Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m.)
The Bruins ripped victory from Stanford's grasps in 2008, as quarterback Kevin Craft connected with Cory Harkey for a 7-yard touchdown strike with 10 seconds left to lift UCLA to a 23-20 win. It gave UCLA a five-game winning streak over Stanford. These two teams are set to do battle for the 81st time in the series; only this year neither team is struggling. Both squads come into the game with three wins and riding winning streaks. UCLA is coming off a bye after winning its first three games of the season, including a 19-15 victory over Tennessee. While Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow are known as offensive minds, it has been the defense that has been most impressive for the Bruins. UCLA ranks 12th in scoring (12.7 ppg) and 15th in total defense (251.0 ypg). Stanford (3-1) is riding a two-game winning streak after a 34-14 rout of previously ranked Washington on Saturday. Running back Toby Gerhart rushed for 200 yards and averaged 7.4 yards per carry. He ranks third in the nation in rushing (129.0 ypg).
Hurc's breakdown: UCLA owns a 45-31-3 edge in the series with Stanford which dates back to 1925. The Bruins lead the series 19-18-2 in games played at Stanford. Still, we just have a gut feeling that Stanford is going to keep the momentum going after a huge win at home vs. Washington. The Cardinal finally have balance on offense thanks to quarterback Andrew Luck.
Wisconsin at Minnesota (Oct. 3, noon)
Michigan-Michigan State might be playing for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, but Wisconsin-Minnesota will play Saturday for Paul Bunyan's Axe. The Badgers and Gophers have the longest standing rivalry in Division I history. The series has been played continuously since 1890 (except 1906) and Saturday's meeting will be the 119th in history. Minnesota leads the series, 59-51-8, but Wisconsin has won 11 of the last 13 meetings. Wisconsin has kept Paul Bunyan's Axe for five straight years after beating Minnesota, 35-32, last season. The Badgers used a fourth-quarter comeback behind touchdown runs from P.J. Hill and John Clay, as well as two safeties to secure the win as they erased a 21-7 halftime deficit. Wisconsin (4-0) kicked off their Big Ten slate with a 38-30 win over Michigan State in Week 4. Quarterback Scott Tolzien was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after throwing a career-high four touchdown passes. Three of them went to tight end Garrett Graham, who became just the sixth player in school history to accomplish that feat. Minnesota (3-1) looks to open Big Ten play at 2-0 for the first time since 2004 after downing Northwestern, 35-24, on Saturday. Wide receiver Eric Decker caught two touchdown passes and already has 35 catches for 499 yards and four touchdowns in four games. Running back Duane Bennett had three touchdowns against Northwestern.
Hurc's breakdown: We feel that Minnesota is going to be in this game for two reasons -- they have been battled tested thanks to games against Syracuse, Air Force, Cal and Northwestern, and you can never rule out any team in a rivalry. However, we feel Wisconsin will win because its offense is just a little more fluent behind Tolzien, Clay and Graham.
